Sturdy-Diffuse — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

+$85

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

60.8%

Resolved (7d)

530

Trades (7d)

806

6,088 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$1.44K

$12.2K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-25

last 10-28 22:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 96 days

Categories

Other

85% 45% -$66

Crypto

15% 56% -$37

Politics

1% 50% +$33

Tech

0% 100% +$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 171 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 03:20 UTC	6	$95	61	61	+0	Down	+$19	07-17 03:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 18:40 UTC	6	$72	53	53	+0	Up	+$12	07-17 18:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 18:10 UTC	6	$61	47	47	+0	Up	+$1	07-16 18:14
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$59	50	50	+0	Yes	+$41	10-26 02:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 18:00 UTC	8	$52	36	36	+0	Up	+$2	07-16 18:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 04:05 UTC	3	$50	47	26	+21	Down	-$14	07-17 04:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 18:35 UTC	4	$45	26	26	+0	Up	+$5	07-17 18:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 19:00 UTC	4	$44	68	68	+0	Down	+$4	07-17 19:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 03:40 UTC	4	$44	46	46	+0	Up	+$4	07-18 03:44
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on October 25?	2	$43	42	42	+0	Yes	+$41	10-26 07:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 02:50 UTC	2	$38	28	28	+0	Down	+$8	07-17 02:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 04:15 UTC	2	$37	25	25	+0	Down	+$5	07-17 04:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 19:30 UTC	4	$35	42	42	+0	Up	-$9	07-17 19:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 04:30 UTC	2	$35	21	21	+0	Down	+$3	07-17 04:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 03:00 UTC	2	$35	20	20	+0	Down	+$5	07-18 03:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 04:35 UTC	2	$35	20	20	+0	Up	+$3	07-17 04:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 04:20 UTC	2	$35	29	29	+0	Up	+$3	07-17 04:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 06:45 UTC	2	$33	28	28	+0	Up	+$3	07-17 06:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 19:00 UTC	4	$32	19	19	+0	Up	+$2	07-18 19:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 03:45 UTC	2	$31	17	17	+0	Down	+$1	07-17 03:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 17:55 UTC	2	$31	17	17	+0	Down	+$1	07-16 17:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 05:05 UTC	4	$29	37	37	+0	Up	-$15	07-17 05:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 05:10 UTC	2	$27	17	17	+0	Up	+$5	07-17 05:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 20:10 UTC	2	$27	20	20	+0	Down	+$5	07-17 20:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 19:35 UTC	2	$25	20	20	+0	Up	+$3	07-17 19:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 18:50 UTC	2	$24	28	28	+0	Up	+$4	07-17 18:53
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 6?	2	$24	30	0	+30	Yes	+$6	06-06 20:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 07:55 UTC	4	$23	17	17	+0	Up	+$2	07-16 07:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 18:30 UTC	2	$23	15	15	+0	Down	+$3	07-16 18:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 18:15 UTC	2	$23	14	14	+0	Up	+$3	07-16 18:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 23:11:31	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x95dcb9…
10-28 23:10:10	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 29?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xd6c8cb…
10-28 23:07:14	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x6eeab4…
10-28 23:04:02	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	6	14¢	$1	0xaa2d73…
10-28 22:50:38	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0x567965…
10-28 22:11:19	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x00d9fd…
10-28 21:28:28	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x04200b…
10-28 21:16:28	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x6ffe42…
10-28 21:10:37	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x7ad8a9…
10-28 20:58:55	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x345c5d…
10-28 20:44:56	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0xc66fd5…
10-28 20:33:34	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xf5919c…
10-28 20:28:35	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on October 29?	No	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0x936e5f…
10-28 19:33:55	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	4	41¢	$2	0x142274…
10-28 19:28:20	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on October 30?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xb0a47e…
10-28 19:19:49	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	1	41¢	$0	0x3c2ed4…
10-28 19:17:44	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	12	7¢	$1	0x5c3854…
10-28 19:17:44	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	4	12¢	$0	0x4c92e0…
10-28 19:17:44	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	4	12¢	$1	0x4782fe…
10-28 19:13:44	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on October 30?	No	BUY	0	73¢	$0	0x5fab9b…
10-28 19:10:43	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on October 30?	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x568f71…
10-28 19:03:55	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on October 29?	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x6c82bd…
10-28 19:01:47	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x5d6163…
10-28 19:01:32	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x20ca70…
10-28 18:58:49	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x455472…
10-28 18:49:59	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x363a61…
10-28 18:28:13	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on October 30?	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x1657a9…
10-28 18:21:11	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on October 30?	No	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x48cd96…
10-28 18:10:56	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x396892…
10-28 18:10:53	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xa1a728…
10-28 18:00:02	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xc6142d…
10-28 17:45:14	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on October 29?	No	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x99b3c0…
10-28 17:42:20	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xc21c77…
10-28 17:35:55	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x5257e7…
10-28 17:12:37	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x42d344…
10-28 17:11:25	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xec6721…
10-28 17:07:41	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x5d7493…
10-28 16:56:26	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x61dc85…
10-28 16:12:20	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x4c9586…
10-28 16:12:14	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x59b30b…
10-28 16:12:14	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x15b2d9…
10-28 16:12:13	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x5b96fb…
10-28 16:08:50	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	4	9¢	$0	0x076ed2…
10-28 16:08:44	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	7	9¢	$1	0xc6abeb…
10-28 14:55:40	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on October 29?	No	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xa0f90a…
10-28 14:35:37	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 29?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x6eefce…
10-28 14:00:02	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	9	5¢	$0	0xcf232c…
10-28 14:00:02	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$1	0xc31533…
10-28 13:59:07	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 29?	No	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x19f999…
10-28 13:56:43	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	6	9¢	$1	0x43a0b0…
10-28 13:49:25	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xca712b…
10-28 13:45:47	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xb68ff7…
10-28 13:10:10	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 29?	No	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x75d4c3…
10-28 12:47:25	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x896a04…
10-28 12:42:23	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x50faa2…
10-28 12:42:23	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on October 29?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x242dca…
10-28 12:10:13	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on October 29?	No	BUY	0	79¢	$0	0xab242c…
10-28 12:06:25	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xa3e111…
10-28 11:36:13	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xcb9d82…
10-28 11:36:08	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0xa77d5c…
10-28 11:10:14	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on October 29?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x31ffb7…
10-28 11:01:25	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 30?	No	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0x24c5dd…
10-28 10:59:02	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 29?	No	BUY	3	86¢	$2	0x63de15…
10-28 10:59:02	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 29?	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x4ba6ce…
10-28 10:52:05	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	4	10¢	$0	0xcdb6f7…
10-28 10:52:05	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x5a2e03…
10-28 10:47:25	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x0aeb95…
10-28 10:45:46	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0x1ee56b…
10-28 10:45:07	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xe9ab97…
10-28 10:45:07	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	7	9¢	$1	0xe57e14…
10-28 10:39:31	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 30?	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x978292…
10-28 10:23:34	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x296b71…
10-28 10:11:49	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xe1ada7…
10-28 10:11:22	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	25	0¢	$0	0xfdb9f8…
10-28 10:00:23	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x4be935…
10-28 09:55:16	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0xc0cc10…
10-28 09:47:22	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x1343ee…
10-28 09:11:44	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xa4f026…
10-28 09:11:23	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	2	31¢	$1	0x3979ad…
10-28 09:03:34	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x5857ff…
10-28 08:45:16	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x66d6b3…
10-28 08:44:16	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	3	12¢	$0	0x4550d7…
10-28 08:24:49	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x11cd49…
10-28 08:20:11	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on October 30?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xa61ab5…
10-28 08:10:55	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x1628e8…
10-28 08:10:49	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xea2125…
10-28 08:10:49	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x4a5ac6…
10-28 08:07:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 29?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xcaadf1…
10-28 08:07:17	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0xc944fb…
10-28 08:01:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 30?	No	BUY	1	45¢	$0	0xf02c5c…
10-28 08:01:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 30?	No	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x43fd19…
10-28 08:00:32	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	9	7¢	$1	0xaa37bf…
10-28 08:00:05	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xc63a09…
10-28 07:50:49	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	0	21¢	$0	0x70c9ba…
10-28 07:50:49	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x353373…
10-28 07:44:52	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xed2122…
10-28 07:44:38	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x4981c8…
10-28 07:35:16	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x802740…
10-28 07:01:17	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xc7337b…
10-28 06:58:56	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x8f9f18…