Sturdy-Diffuse — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$49

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

57.2%

Resolved (90d)

3,537

Trades (90d)

5,426

6,172 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$9.88K

$12.3K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-25

last 10-29 16:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 97 days

Categories

Other

85% 45% -$48

Crypto

14% 56% -$37

Politics

1% 50% +$33

Tech

0% 100% +$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

66 active days in 12wk • peak 171 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 03:20 UTC	6	$95	61	61	+0	Down	+$19	07-17 03:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 18:40 UTC	6	$72	53	53	+0	Up	+$12	07-17 18:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 18:10 UTC	6	$61	47	47	+0	Up	+$1	07-16 18:14
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$59	50	50	+0	Yes	+$41	10-26 02:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 18:00 UTC	8	$52	36	36	+0	Up	+$2	07-16 18:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 04:05 UTC	3	$50	47	26	+21	Down	-$14	07-17 04:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 18:35 UTC	4	$45	26	26	+0	Up	+$5	07-17 18:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 19:00 UTC	4	$44	68	68	+0	Down	+$4	07-17 19:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 03:40 UTC	4	$44	46	46	+0	Up	+$4	07-18 03:44
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on October 25?	2	$43	42	42	+0	Yes	+$41	10-26 07:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 02:50 UTC	2	$38	28	28	+0	Down	+$8	07-17 02:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 04:15 UTC	2	$37	25	25	+0	Down	+$5	07-17 04:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 19:30 UTC	4	$35	42	42	+0	Up	-$9	07-17 19:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 04:30 UTC	2	$35	21	21	+0	Down	+$3	07-17 04:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 03:00 UTC	2	$35	20	20	+0	Down	+$5	07-18 03:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 04:35 UTC	2	$35	20	20	+0	Up	+$3	07-17 04:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 04:20 UTC	2	$35	29	29	+0	Up	+$3	07-17 04:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 06:45 UTC	2	$33	28	28	+0	Up	+$3	07-17 06:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 19:00 UTC	4	$32	19	19	+0	Up	+$2	07-18 19:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 03:45 UTC	2	$31	17	17	+0	Down	+$1	07-17 03:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 17:55 UTC	2	$31	17	17	+0	Down	+$1	07-16 17:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 05:05 UTC	4	$29	37	37	+0	Up	-$15	07-17 05:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 05:10 UTC	2	$27	17	17	+0	Up	+$5	07-17 05:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 20:10 UTC	2	$27	20	20	+0	Down	+$5	07-17 20:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 19:35 UTC	2	$25	20	20	+0	Up	+$3	07-17 19:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 18:50 UTC	2	$24	28	28	+0	Up	+$4	07-17 18:53
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 6?	2	$24	30	0	+30	Yes	+$6	06-06 20:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 07:55 UTC	4	$23	17	17	+0	Up	+$2	07-16 07:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 18:30 UTC	2	$23	15	15	+0	Down	+$3	07-16 18:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 18:15 UTC	2	$23	14	14	+0	Up	+$3	07-16 18:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 16:10:16	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C or higher on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x22e298…
10-29 15:33:31	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x61cfae…
10-29 15:27:13	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xb6d9ee…
10-29 15:25:13	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 31?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x087c25…
10-29 15:04:46	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x98e026…
10-29 14:45:26	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xf76447…
10-29 14:10:04	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x134468…
10-29 14:08:25	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	0	23¢	$0	0xda43f4…
10-29 14:07:23	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x1e215d…
10-29 14:07:11	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x38cc24…
10-29 14:05:43	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xdff4fc…
10-29 13:46:16	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x7a9293…
10-29 13:31:32	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xe48f05…
10-29 12:52:56	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x18677d…
10-29 12:50:25	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xc7483d…
10-29 12:36:14	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xb8ca12…
10-29 12:36:11	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on October 31?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x959f98…
10-29 12:36:04	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on October 31?	No	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x76fe11…
10-29 12:35:16	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xd16603…
10-29 12:10:01	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on October 30?	No	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xca4c0c…
10-29 12:02:23	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x917737…
10-29 11:37:47	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x628286…
10-29 11:28:53	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x593c1b…
10-29 11:10:50	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 31?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x0b3daf…
10-29 11:06:44	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 31?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x4c9c60…
10-29 10:52:44	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x0c520c…
10-29 10:42:55	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 31?	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x1529bb…
10-29 10:36:19	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x9d557e…
10-29 10:35:56	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x6b97ca…
10-29 10:15:43	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	4	15¢	$1	0x9171ae…
10-29 10:15:25	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0xf72bd7…
10-29 10:10:47	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on October 31?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x27880a…
10-29 10:10:26	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 31?	No	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0x863ad3…
10-29 10:00:01	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	2	18¢	$0	0x98de3c…
10-29 10:00:01	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	3	18¢	$1	0x7472e0…
10-29 09:40:22	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x8034b7…
10-29 09:33:43	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on October 30?	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x2e6885…
10-29 09:11:19	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	46¢	$0	0x73917c…
10-29 09:11:19	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x039089…
10-29 09:05:05	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0x89b2e1…
10-29 09:05:05	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x520587…
10-29 09:02:04	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 31?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xaeee3e…
10-29 09:00:26	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	3	44¢	$1	0x363f23…
10-29 09:00:11	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x1712e1…
10-29 08:34:44	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x19dcf1…
10-29 08:26:04	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0xe95f18…
10-29 08:26:04	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	8	9¢	$1	0x1bf4de…
10-29 08:26:02	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0x58a693…
10-29 08:10:56	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 31?	No	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x65642a…
10-29 08:10:43	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on October 31?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xd93248…
10-29 08:00:31	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xc63dca…
10-29 08:00:22	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x0b361a…
10-29 07:59:35	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0x72e255…
10-29 07:52:31	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xda57d5…
10-29 07:50:20	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	7	11¢	$1	0xdafbb0…
10-29 07:49:19	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on October 31?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x8bb808…
10-29 07:40:35	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 31?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x09a810…
10-29 07:33:47	highest temperature in london on october 31 2026 16c	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x96563e…
10-29 07:21:43	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on October 31?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x6da52c…
10-29 07:20:40	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on October 30?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xdc58d7…
10-29 07:20:40	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on October 30?	No	BUY	3	51¢	$1	0x7157bf…
10-29 07:10:35	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 31?	No	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x344062…
10-29 07:00:40	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xca75da…
10-29 06:43:46	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	6	9¢	$1	0xd3f046…
10-29 06:40:16	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x06dacd…
10-29 06:00:05	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on October 29?	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x96799c…
10-29 05:48:23	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x8f40d2…
10-29 05:15:37	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x4e644e…
10-29 05:15:35	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x89c52a…
10-29 05:01:38	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xb8d410…
10-29 03:44:02	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x0265e2…
10-29 03:27:02	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on October 30?	No	BUY	0	62¢	$0	0xcc9032…
10-29 03:11:19	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on October 29?	No	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xf4b65f…
10-29 03:11:19	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x8ef586…
10-29 02:58:20	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x73b521…
10-29 02:37:26	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x2982e9…
10-29 02:10:41	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on October 29?	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x8634c8…
10-29 02:08:20	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x3d176c…
10-29 01:33:34	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on October 30?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xfe9592…
10-29 01:25:35	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x0d2371…
10-29 01:10:59	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x755eae…
10-29 00:50:04	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 29?	No	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xe0c7ce…
10-29 00:44:58	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x75c86d…
10-29 00:28:04	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x92f68f…
10-29 00:11:08	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on October 30?	No	BUY	0	82¢	$0	0x95bcb5…
10-28 23:11:31	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x95dcb9…
10-28 23:10:10	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 29?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xd6c8cb…
10-28 23:07:14	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x6eeab4…
10-28 23:04:02	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	6	14¢	$1	0xaa2d73…
10-28 22:50:38	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0x567965…
10-28 22:11:19	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x00d9fd…
10-28 21:28:28	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x04200b…
10-28 21:16:28	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x6ffe42…
10-28 21:10:37	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x7ad8a9…
10-28 20:58:55	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x345c5d…
10-28 20:44:56	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0xc66fd5…
10-28 20:33:34	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xf5919c…
10-28 20:28:35	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on October 29?	No	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0x936e5f…
10-28 19:33:55	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	4	41¢	$2	0x142274…
10-28 19:28:20	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on October 30?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xb0a47e…