Sturdy-Diffuse — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$26

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

59.8%

Resolved

3,945

Trades

6,270

lifetime

Volume

$12.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-25

last 10-30 12:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 98 days

Categories

Other

85% 45% -$35

Crypto

14% 56% -$37

Politics

1% 50% +$33

Tech

0% 100% +$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

67 active days in 12wk • peak 171 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 03:20 UTC	6	$95	61	61	+0	Down	+$19	07-17 03:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 18:40 UTC	6	$72	53	53	+0	Up	+$12	07-17 18:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 18:10 UTC	6	$61	47	47	+0	Up	+$1	07-16 18:14
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$59	50	50	+0	Yes	+$41	10-26 02:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 18:00 UTC	8	$52	36	36	+0	Up	+$2	07-16 18:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 04:05 UTC	3	$50	47	26	+21	Down	-$14	07-17 04:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 18:35 UTC	4	$45	26	26	+0	Up	+$5	07-17 18:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 19:00 UTC	4	$44	68	68	+0	Down	+$4	07-17 19:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 03:40 UTC	4	$44	46	46	+0	Up	+$4	07-18 03:44
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on October 25?	2	$43	42	42	+0	Yes	+$41	10-26 07:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 02:50 UTC	2	$38	28	28	+0	Down	+$8	07-17 02:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 04:15 UTC	2	$37	25	25	+0	Down	+$5	07-17 04:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 19:30 UTC	4	$35	42	42	+0	Up	-$9	07-17 19:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 04:30 UTC	2	$35	21	21	+0	Down	+$3	07-17 04:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 03:00 UTC	2	$35	20	20	+0	Down	+$5	07-18 03:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 04:35 UTC	2	$35	20	20	+0	Up	+$3	07-17 04:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 04:20 UTC	2	$35	29	29	+0	Up	+$3	07-17 04:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 06:45 UTC	2	$33	28	28	+0	Up	+$3	07-17 06:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 19:00 UTC	4	$32	19	19	+0	Up	+$2	07-18 19:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 03:45 UTC	2	$31	17	17	+0	Down	+$1	07-17 03:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 17:55 UTC	2	$31	17	17	+0	Down	+$1	07-16 17:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 05:05 UTC	4	$29	37	37	+0	Up	-$15	07-17 05:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 05:10 UTC	2	$27	17	17	+0	Up	+$5	07-17 05:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 20:10 UTC	2	$27	20	20	+0	Down	+$5	07-17 20:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 19:35 UTC	2	$25	20	20	+0	Up	+$3	07-17 19:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 18:50 UTC	2	$24	28	28	+0	Up	+$4	07-17 18:53
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 6?	2	$24	30	0	+30	Yes	+$6	06-06 20:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 07:55 UTC	4	$23	17	17	+0	Up	+$2	07-16 07:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 18:30 UTC	2	$23	15	15	+0	Down	+$3	07-16 18:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 18:15 UTC	2	$23	14	14	+0	Up	+$3	07-16 18:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 12:04:18	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x215e77…
10-30 11:15:24	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x62c825…
10-30 11:08:13	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0x0fc5bd…
10-30 11:08:10	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	89	1¢	$1	0x4203fc…
10-30 11:08:03	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x099720…
10-30 11:00:03	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 31?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x1d56d5…
10-30 10:06:03	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x22025f…
10-30 10:04:00	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	0	29¢	$0	0x33b93a…
10-30 10:03:58	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xb489c1…
10-30 10:03:10	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	37	2¢	$1	0xb148e5…
10-30 10:03:10	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	24	2¢	$0	0x303077…
10-30 10:00:09	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xf9ff5a…
10-30 08:41:34	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on October 31?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xf18c55…
10-30 08:25:54	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x789482…
10-30 08:14:12	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x8bde50…
10-30 08:10:40	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on November 1?	No	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x45970d…
10-30 07:54:45	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x2bddf2…
10-30 07:54:45	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	24	3¢	$1	0x04daba…
10-30 07:39:12	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on October 31?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x7fb1e6…
10-30 07:31:40	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xf9d583…
10-30 07:23:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x22dcb5…
10-30 07:15:51	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x52db90…
10-30 07:11:51	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$1	0xf3f1c4…
10-30 07:11:51	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x0892a3…
10-30 07:10:39	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 31?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x6e6937…
10-30 07:10:39	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on October 31?	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x0f3878…
10-30 07:07:13	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xd82842…
10-30 06:00:03	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on October 30?	No	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x88ad42…
10-30 05:53:37	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xb2e7dc…
10-30 05:43:36	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x1486e7…
10-30 05:40:40	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on October 31?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x38f4e3…
10-30 05:04:06	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on October 31?	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x5ac691…
10-30 04:25:13	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	0	53¢	$0	0x729a36…
10-30 04:24:49	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xc5f6dd…
10-30 04:16:28	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x33112d…
10-30 04:11:01	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x8b8afc…
10-30 03:52:40	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C or higher on October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x24fce9…
10-30 03:46:21	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on October 31?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xe8ac66…
10-30 03:16:55	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 11°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x227323…
10-30 03:15:09	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x9bdc1a…
10-30 03:10:00	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0x5eae65…
10-30 03:07:49	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on October 31?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x63ad9f…
10-30 02:37:09	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0xcf1e30…
10-30 02:04:55	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on October 30?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xffe6fb…
10-30 01:41:24	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 31?	No	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x5c7ee5…
10-30 01:03:28	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on October 31?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xf018e1…
10-30 00:16:40	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on October 30?	No	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x54f47b…
10-30 00:15:40	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on October 30?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xc1fef0…
10-29 23:38:09	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 31?	No	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x3c36d4…
10-29 23:36:46	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x24939b…
10-29 23:27:42	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x8d81f2…
10-29 23:14:36	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on October 30?	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x462f98…
10-29 23:14:36	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on October 30?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x17f1d0…
10-29 22:58:52	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 12°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0xd78ca4…
10-29 22:51:31	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x1cf4c9…
10-29 22:29:04	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 12°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x0d0aa4…
10-29 22:24:04	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x400c93…
10-29 21:51:06	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x6d3308…
10-29 21:51:04	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xf8c83c…
10-29 21:51:04	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	73	1¢	$1	0xc83ca2…
10-29 21:51:04	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x11b77c…
10-29 21:51:04	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x0abaa2…
10-29 21:15:27	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 22°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	3	9¢	$0	0x4ba6e2…
10-29 21:09:45	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x97dee2…
10-29 20:57:07	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on October 31?	Yes	BUY	0	21¢	$0	0xc47f81…
10-29 20:51:24	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on October 31?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xb22a78…
10-29 20:36:40	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 22°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	9	9¢	$1	0x74047c…
10-29 20:11:46	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0x4ec00d…
10-29 20:10:24	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x959922…
10-29 20:04:54	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0x22dbb4…
10-29 20:04:54	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x1c06f6…
10-29 20:00:19	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x62459e…
10-29 20:00:18	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0x14d232…
10-29 19:56:39	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x8160c4…
10-29 19:35:31	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 31?	No	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x281839…
10-29 19:35:19	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x8f2667…
10-29 19:35:00	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on October 31?	No	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x6291da…
10-29 19:34:58	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x49f428…
10-29 19:34:09	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x0db626…
10-29 19:33:48	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on October 30?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xe7f7f3…
10-29 19:33:16	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0xd62051…
10-29 19:33:16	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0x4ccf9d…
10-29 19:14:51	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x8b472d…
10-29 19:12:31	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	5	29¢	$1	0xc9f0f1…
10-29 19:07:52	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0xaa972a…
10-29 19:07:51	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x98e69d…
10-29 19:01:06	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on October 31?	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x80c294…
10-29 17:56:29	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0x024bd7…
10-29 17:30:02	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 31?	No	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x99ef09…
10-29 17:07:47	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x3071e6…
10-29 17:06:25	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x12e109…
10-29 16:27:05	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x568cc3…
10-29 16:19:26	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xa07a7c…
10-29 16:10:16	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C or higher on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x22e298…
10-29 15:33:31	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x61cfae…
10-29 15:27:13	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xb6d9ee…
10-29 15:25:13	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 31?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x087c25…
10-29 15:04:46	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x98e026…
10-29 14:45:26	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xf76447…
10-29 14:10:04	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x134468…