Realized P&L
+$7.36K
Unrealized P&L
+$430
Hit rate
73.7%
Resolved
1,001
Trades
12,273
lifetime
Volume
$264.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$22
Open exposure
$3.67K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-27
last 10-29 21:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 249 days
Categories
Politics
65% 68% +$4,666
Other
32% 60% +$2,397
Tech
2% 78% +$220
Sports
1% 59% +$83
Crypto
0% 25% -$6
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 146 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +450 $341 78¢ $352 +$11 10-29 20:04
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026? Yes +625 $326 55¢ $340 +$15 10-29 09:06
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +350 $335 96¢ $336 +$1 10-13 06:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +307 $183 88¢ $272 +$89 09-26 00:30
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +394 $157 61¢ $239 +$82 10-28 21:20
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026? No +654 $208 33¢ $216 +$8 10-28 21:38
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? No +300 $205 70¢ $211 +$6 10-28 21:49
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? No +360 $128 57¢ $205 +$77 10-29 17:35
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes +324 $187 62¢ $203 +$16 10-23 21:09
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Yes +258 $163 73¢ $189 +$25 10-07 05:41
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? No +154 $119 75¢ $116 -$3 10-29 20:00
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +202 $141 52¢ $106 -$35 10-29 22:50
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +216 $112 48¢ $103 -$9 10-29 21:31
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +333 $114 30¢ $98 -$16 10-29 22:57
us x iran ceasefire continues through november 15 Yes +200 $137 41¢ $82 -$55 10-29 22:53
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M? No +100 $73 79¢ $79 +$6 10-29 21:54
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? No +103 $60 73¢ $75 +$15 10-29 07:55
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +70 $52 99¢ $69 +$17 10-28 12:53
US imports Russian diesel by December 31? Yes +105 -$17 64¢ $68 +$85 10-28 21:28
will coreweave announce bankruptcy by december 31 2027 No +50 $42 90¢ $45 +$2 10-14 21:54
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? No +200 -$13 19¢ $38 +$51 10-28 21:34
US imports Russian diesel by December 31? No +105 $34 36¢ $37 +$3 10-21 09:18
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? Yes +40 $20 74¢ $29 +$10 09-04 05:44
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? No +50 $60 54¢ $27 -$33 10-27 11:00
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M? No +130 $90 20¢ $26 -$64 10-28 22:11
us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917 Yes +33 -$36 70¢ $23 +$59 10-29 22:51
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? Yes +50 -$3 46¢ $23 +$26 10-22 13:28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? Yes +100 $21 22¢ $22 +$2 10-28 22:20
Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +30 $5 68¢ $20 +$15 10-26 18:44
will venezuela recognize israel by december 31 No +18 -$8 86¢ $15 +$23 08-13 18:41