Disastrous-Distortion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$17

Unrealized P&L

+$13

Hit rate

53.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.24K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

$10

1 position

First seen

2026-01-29

last 06-27 09:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

49% 100% +$3

Tech

33% — —

Politics

10% — —

Crypto

7% — —

Sports

2% 0% $-20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes		-415	$-23	2¢	$-10	+$13	05-28 14:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	3	$393	200	200	+0	open	—	04-08 08:02
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$390	200	200	+0	open	—	04-08 08:32
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	3	$80	69	69	+0	open	—	05-21 17:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$61	154	154	+0	open	—	05-23 22:02
btc updown 15m 1782550800	8	$46	45	45	+0	open	—	06-27 09:08
bitcoin up or down june 27 2026 5am et	5	$38	69	69	+0	open	—	06-27 09:32
will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	2	$36	18	18	+0	open	—	01-30 03:07
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	1	$30	214	0	+214	open	—	05-01 16:11
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	1	$23	0	415	-415	open	—	05-28 14:05
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	2	$23	38	38	+0	BetBoom Team	+$3	05-11 16:50
Timberwolves vs. Spurs	1	$20	143	0	+143	Spurs	$-20	05-07 02:26
ebola pandemic in 2026	1	$16	0	225	-225	open	—	06-04 17:29
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	1	$15	68	0	+68	open	—	05-28 14:28
spacex ipo will elon musk ring the bell 20260608201006493	1	$14	50	0	+50	open	—	06-12 00:04
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	1	$10	100	0	+100	open	—	05-18 14:57
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	1	$10	122	0	+122	open	—	06-23 02:10
Weed rescheduled by June 30?	3	$9	400	0	+400	open	—	06-10 16:30
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?	2	$7	102	102	+0	open	—	05-22 19:00
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31?	1	$3	200	0	+200	open	—	05-31 15:53
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	1	$2	667	0	+667	open	—	06-04 17:32
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$2	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	06-01 17:54
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	1	$2	140	0	+140	open	—	05-31 16:39
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games?	1	$2	750	0	+750	open	—	05-25 17:49
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	1	$1	110	0	+110	open	—	05-31 07:01
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	2	$1	60	0	+60	open	—	05-31 12:42
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$1	200	0	+200	open	—	05-20 09:12
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$1	250	0	+250	open	—	05-20 09:12
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$1	200	0	+200	open	—	05-20 09:12
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	1	$1	167	0	+167	open	—	05-31 02:58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$1	48	0	+48	open	—	05-31 02:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-27 09:32:16	bitcoin up or down june 27 2026 5am et	Up	SELL	32	27¢	$9	0xef4b62…
06-27 09:22:04	bitcoin up or down june 27 2026 5am et	Up	SELL	10	14¢	$1	0xeebd5b…
06-27 09:12:20	bitcoin up or down june 27 2026 5am et	Up	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x57d1b9…
06-27 09:11:31	bitcoin up or down june 27 2026 5am et	Up	SELL	27	30¢	$8	0x3db769…
06-27 09:10:25	bitcoin up or down june 27 2026 5am et	Up	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0xab017f…
06-27 09:08:50	btc updown 15m 1782550800	Down	SELL	26	35¢	$9	0x85dcb3…
06-27 09:03:52	btc updown 15m 1782550800	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xb923e0…
06-27 09:03:20	btc updown 15m 1782550800	Down	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xf4960a…
06-27 09:01:34	btc updown 15m 1782550800	Down	SELL	3	60¢	$2	0x5b1bf7…
06-27 09:01:28	btc updown 15m 1782550800	Down	SELL	6	60¢	$4	0xcb1ccc…
06-27 09:01:28	btc updown 15m 1782550800	Down	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0xa7375d…
06-27 09:01:28	btc updown 15m 1782550800	Down	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x8f0636…
06-27 09:00:20	btc updown 15m 1782550800	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x3a0a50…
06-23 02:10:50	Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	No	BUY	122	8¢	$10	0x06dc6d…
06-12 00:04:30	spacex ipo will elon musk ring the bell 20260608201006493	Yes	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0x3f5370…
06-10 16:30:10	Weed rescheduled by June 30?	Yes	BUY	162	2¢	$4	0x1a3939…
06-09 12:03:57	Weed rescheduled by June 30?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x2fef78…
06-07 20:25:33	Weed rescheduled by June 30?	Yes	BUY	223	2¢	$5	0x425951…
06-04 17:32:57	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	No	BUY	667	0¢	$2	0x8448a8…
06-04 17:29:31	ebola pandemic in 2026	Yes	SELL	225	7¢	$16	0x40407b…
06-01 17:54:08	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0x8e013b…
05-31 16:39:57	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	140	1¢	$2	0x2db9f2…
05-31 15:53:08	Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$3	0xbf75b8…
05-31 12:42:47	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x0e9688…
05-31 12:42:18	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x04a84e…
05-31 07:01:29	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	BUY	110	1¢	$1	0xee5ec0…
05-31 02:58:47	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xee71a5…
05-31 02:58:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0xd1a458…
05-28 14:28:33	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	68	22¢	$15	0x73a9bc…
05-28 14:05:20	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	415	6¢	$23	0x3b479e…
05-25 17:49:55	Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games?	Yes	BUY	750	0¢	$2	0x3e7f3f…
05-23 22:02:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	154	20¢	$31	0xae46a2…
05-23 21:22:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	154	19¢	$30	0x8a89ab…
05-22 19:00:38	Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?	Yes	SELL	102	1¢	$1	0xc027a3…
05-21 17:08:12	Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	No	SELL	59	87¢	$51	0xf8c7f9…
05-21 17:04:47	Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	No	SELL	10	87¢	$9	0x3d7a69…
05-21 12:06:04	Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	No	BUY	69	29¢	$20	0x60a168…
05-20 09:12:44	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x294f89…
05-20 09:12:34	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x5eeb6a…
05-20 09:12:22	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x47a9c2…
05-18 14:57:01	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x7254a3…
05-18 14:44:25	Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?	Yes	BUY	102	6¢	$6	0x7a7af1…
05-11 16:50:46	Counter-Strike: B8 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	BetBoom Team	SELL	38	33¢	$13	0x2777ae…
05-11 16:49:12	Counter-Strike: B8 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	BetBoom Team	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0xaf6985…
05-07 02:26:51	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Timberwolves	BUY	143	14¢	$20	0x252bee…
05-01 16:11:44	Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	Yes	BUY	214	14¢	$30	0x46483f…
04-08 08:32:09	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	200	97¢	$195	0x4a04d6…
04-08 08:21:43	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	200	97¢	$195	0x8138c1…
04-08 08:02:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	98¢	$197	0x7a4ccb…
04-08 06:20:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	72	98¢	$71	0x1e83cb…
04-08 06:18:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	128	98¢	$126	0x8e089b…
01-30 03:07:02	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x7e85da…
01-29 12:40:48	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xf29c62…