Realized P&L (30d)
+$88
Unrealized P&L
+$1.02K
Hit rate
85.9%
Resolved (30d)
14
Trades (30d)
126
556 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$31.0K
$117.2K lifetime
Avg / trade
$211
Open exposure
$57.1K
30 positions
First seen
2026-09-10
last 10-30 10:40
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 7 days
Categories
Other
50%
88%
+$60
Tech
38%
50%
-$4
Crypto
9%
—
—
Sports
3%
100%
+$35
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
35 active days in 12wk
• peak 68 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? | No | +6,810 | $6,491 | 96¢ | $6.6K | +$80 | 10-15 02:38 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +5,451 | $5,266 | 98¢ | $5.4K | +$87 | 09-26 02:40 | |
| will anthropic announce bankruptcy by december 31 2027 | No | +4,900 | $4,462 | 92¢ | $4.5K | +$71 | 10-23 14:34 | |
| Anduril IPO before 2027? | No | +4,562 | $4,381 | 98¢ | $4.5K | +$104 | 10-03 14:53 | |
| Databricks IPO before 2027? | No | +4,536 | $4,351 | 98¢ | $4.4K | +$83 | 09-25 14:38 | |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? | No | +4,166 | $3,695 | 93¢ | $3.9K | +$179 | 10-15 02:51 | |
| Epic Games IPO before 2027? | No | +3,611 | $3,390 | 98¢ | $3.5K | +$159 | 09-24 19:52 | |
| Ripple Labs IPO before 2027? | No | +3,427 | $3,270 | 97¢ | $3.3K | +$63 | 10-15 02:37 | |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | No | +1,785 | $1,689 | 96¢ | $1.7K | +$28 | 10-29 17:03 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +1,750 | $1,678 | 97¢ | $1.7K | +$22 | 09-26 02:40 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? | No | +1,700 | $1,657 | 97¢ | $1.6K | -$8 | 10-05 05:54 | |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +1,623 | $1,540 | 94¢ | $1.5K | -$12 | 10-29 17:05 | |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | No | +1,545 | $1,333 | 92¢ | $1.4K | +$88 | 10-15 02:51 | |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? | No | +1,700 | $1,400 | 84¢ | $1.4K | +$19 | 10-29 15:55 | |
| Mistral AI IPO before 2027? | No | +1,459 | $1,361 | 97¢ | $1.4K | +$49 | 09-17 20:05 | |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | +1,356 | $1,295 | 95¢ | $1.3K | -$9 | 10-29 17:09 | |
| Vanta IPO before 2027? | No | +1,302 | $1,245 | 95¢ | $1.2K | -$6 | 09-21 22:13 | |
| Ramp IPO before 2027? | No | +1,256 | $1,179 | 98¢ | $1.2K | +$46 | 09-22 23:54 | |
| Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | No | +1,250 | $1,162 | 91¢ | $1.1K | -$25 | 10-05 05:44 | |
| Ledger IPO before 2027? | No | +1,117 | $1,060 | 96¢ | $1.1K | +$9 | 09-22 14:21 | |
| Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? | No | +1,101 | $1,069 | 96¢ | $1.1K | -$6 | 09-23 00:07 | |
| Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? | No | +901 | $874 | 97¢ | $874 | +$0 | 09-22 23:58 | |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | No | +544 | $517 | 95¢ | $517 | +$1 | 09-23 00:08 | |
| Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day? | No | +441 | $414 | 97¢ | $430 | +$16 | 10-03 14:52 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +350 | $326 | 92¢ | $324 | -$2 | 10-23 14:32 | |
| Celonis IPO before 2027? | No | +325 | $304 | 92¢ | $297 | -$7 | 10-29 15:53 | |
| Rippling IPO before 2027? | No | +210 | $200 | 93¢ | $196 | -$4 | 10-22 18:52 | |
| Stripe IPO before 2027? | No | +204 | $198 | 95¢ | $195 | -$4 | 10-29 15:53 | |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? | No | +200 | $156 | 78¢ | $155 | -$1 | 10-23 17:39 | |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | No | +150 | $145 | 95¢ | $142 | -$3 | 10-23 15:59 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? | 28 | $7.4K | 4,074 | 4,074 | +0 | open | — | 10-09 03:54 |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? | 20 | $6.5K | 6,810 | 0 | +6,810 | open | — | 10-15 02:38 |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? | 11 | $5.7K | 3,017 | 3,017 | +0 | open | — | 10-03 15:07 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | 5 | $5.3K | 5,451 | 0 | +5,451 | open | — | 09-26 02:40 |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? | 52 | $5.2K | 3,095 | 3,094 | +1 | open | — | 10-23 14:23 |
| will anthropic announce bankruptcy by december 31 2027 | 5 | $4.5K | 4,900 | 0 | +4,900 | open | — | 10-23 14:34 |
| Anduril IPO before 2027? | 13 | $4.4K | 4,562 | 0 | +4,562 | open | — | 10-03 14:53 |
| Databricks IPO before 2027? | 15 | $4.4K | 4,536 | 0 | +4,536 | open | — | 09-25 14:38 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? | 11 | $3.7K | 4,166 | 0 | +4,166 | open | — | 10-15 02:51 |
| Epic Games IPO before 2027? | 12 | $3.4K | 3,611 | 0 | +3,611 | open | — | 09-24 19:52 |
| Ripple Labs IPO before 2027? | 10 | $3.3K | 3,427 | 0 | +3,427 | open | — | 10-15 02:37 |
| Giants vs. Rams | 7 | $3.2K | 3,200 | 0 | +3,200 | Rams | +$29 | 09-22 02:48 |
| Will Holtec Nuclear not IPO before November 2026? | 19 | $2.8K | 1,737 | 1,736 | +1 | open | — | 10-29 17:24 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | 9 | $2.6K | 1,842 | 1,842 | +0 | open | — | 09-20 04:40 |
| Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? | 9 | $2.5K | 2,646 | 0 | +2,646 | open | — | 10-05 05:42 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? | 4 | $2.5K | 1,346 | 1,346 | +0 | open | — | 09-18 04:52 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | 5 | $2.1K | 1,424 | 1,424 | +0 | open | — | 10-05 05:53 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | 5 | $1.7K | 1,785 | 0 | +1,785 | open | — | 10-29 17:03 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2 | $1.7K | 1,750 | 0 | +1,750 | open | — | 09-26 02:40 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? | 3 | $1.7K | 1,700 | 0 | +1,700 | open | — | 10-05 05:54 |
| WHOOP IPO before 2027? | 2 | $1.7K | 857 | 857 | +0 | open | — | 10-23 14:21 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? | 9 | $1.6K | 1,739 | 0 | +1,739 | open | — | 09-22 11:03 |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | 5 | $1.5K | 1,623 | 0 | +1,623 | open | — | 10-29 17:05 |
| Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $65B by December 31? | 10 | $1.5K | 1,603 | 0 | +1,603 | open | — | 10-23 15:58 |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? | 3 | $1.4K | 1,700 | 0 | +1,700 | open | — | 10-29 15:55 |
| Mistral AI IPO before 2027? | 8 | $1.4K | 1,459 | 0 | +1,459 | open | — | 09-17 20:05 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | 4 | $1.3K | 1,545 | 0 | +1,545 | open | — | 10-15 02:51 |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | 4 | $1.3K | 1,356 | 0 | +1,356 | open | — | 10-29 17:09 |
| Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by December 31? | 7 | $1.3K | 1,369 | 0 | +1,369 | open | — | 10-29 17:05 |
| Vanta IPO before 2027? | 4 | $1.2K | 1,302 | 0 | +1,302 | open | — | 09-21 22:13 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||