Insignificant-Recognition — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$17

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

119

Trades

145

lifetime

Volume

$1.99K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$70

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-28 07:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 44 days

Categories

Other

52% 99% +$10

Politics

33% 89% +$6

Crypto

11% 100% +$1

Sports

2% 100% +$0

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No		+72	$66	95¢	$68	+$2	10-28 07:36
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		+4	$3	52¢	$2	-$1	10-27 17:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	2	$122	61	61	+0	No	+$0	09-01 09:11
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	2	$116	64	64	+0	No	+$1	10-18 11:18
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	2	$103	52	52	+0	No	+$0	08-12 20:02
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	2	$101	51	51	+0	No	+$0	09-07 12:18
LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?	2	$101	51	51	+0	Yes	+$1	09-10 15:35
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	3	$98	58	43	+15	No	+$1	08-27 14:39
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	4	$93	64	64	+0	open	—	10-26 05:49
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	1	$68	68	0	+68	No	+$0	10-06 04:47
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	1	$68	68	0	+68	Yes	+$1	10-03 00:15
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	1	$66	72	0	+72	open	—	10-28 07:36
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	1	$63	63	0	+63	Yes	+$1	10-13 12:06
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	1	$62	68	0	+68	No	+$5	09-25 05:15
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$57	57	0	+57	No	+$0	08-05 08:04
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	1	$52	52	0	+52	No	+$0	09-16 19:19
untitled market 1 20260803235754057	1	$52	52	0	+52	No	+$0	08-14 06:46
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	1	$51	52	0	+52	No	+$0	08-13 00:16
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	1	$51	51	0	+51	No	+$0	08-11 18:28
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$47	47	0	+47	No	+$0	08-21 21:05
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	1	$45	45	0	+45	No	+$0	05-31 11:37
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$45	45	0	+45	No	+$0	06-26 23:45
Will Sweden be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	1	$41	41	0	+41	No	+$0	05-13 18:16
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	1	$38	39	0	+39	No	+$0	07-30 03:46
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	2	$21	12	12	+0	open	—	09-17 12:31
googl above 350 on march 31 2026	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	03-31 00:13
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	06-30 09:01
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$20	23	0	+23	Yes	+$3	10-25 23:11
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	1	$18	19	0	+19	No	+$0	06-28 11:19
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in April?	1	$16	16	0	+16	No	+$0	04-29 17:32
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in August?	1	$16	16	0	+16	No	+$0	08-28 00:15
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in August?	1	$13	13	0	+13	No	+$0	08-27 00:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 07:36:22	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	72	93¢	$66	0xdfd683…
10-27 17:36:03	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x6cab0d…
10-26 14:30:06	Will Solana reach $200 in October?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x515fda…
10-26 05:49:27	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	64	72¢	$46	0xec38ed…
10-25 23:11:51	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0xf7c0a1…
10-25 22:08:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	SELL	420	0¢	$2	0x708ba8…
10-24 02:06:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	419	0¢	$0	0x4a6fab…
10-24 02:06:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x32f041…
10-19 18:47:26	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	18	72¢	$13	0x73bd6f…
10-19 17:57:53	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	36	72¢	$26	0xe63214…
10-19 17:35:54	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	11	72¢	$8	0xfc64bd…
10-18 11:18:36	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	SELL	64	91¢	$58	0x56beeb…
10-17 15:46:30	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	64	90¢	$58	0xc53a6b…
10-13 12:06:52	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	63	99¢	$63	0xbb7e01…
10-10 04:54:31	Will Solana reach $200 in October?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd6105e…
10-06 04:47:55	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	68	100¢	$68	0x01fb4f…
10-03 00:15:23	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	68	99¢	$68	0xafb480…
09-25 05:15:18	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	68	92¢	$62	0x7107ac…
09-22 13:38:18	Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xff91f3…
09-17 17:26:57	Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x34ee1a…
09-17 12:31:28	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	12	86¢	$10	0x652374…
09-16 19:19:16	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	No	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0x8643e4…
09-10 15:35:07	LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0x10230b…
09-10 00:41:25	LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xb8fa9b…
09-07 12:18:24	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0xd0ab3c…
09-06 05:42:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	51	99¢	$51	0x6ba252…
09-04 07:23:18	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x30805a…
09-01 09:11:22	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	61	100¢	$61	0x269a6a…
09-01 06:34:36	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	61	100¢	$61	0x3b1238…
08-28 00:15:45	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in August?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x6ce9b2…
08-27 14:39:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0x8cabdb…
08-27 00:12:51	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in August?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x3c6e2a…
08-26 16:43:31	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	43	97¢	$42	0xcbaf99…
08-24 04:29:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0x940417…
08-23 19:04:52	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4dc744…
08-23 15:18:18	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x05e9d3…
08-21 21:05:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	47	100¢	$47	0x7f07ff…
08-20 05:48:36	will ethereum dip to 1200 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x5a9932…
08-20 02:36:36	will xagusd dip to 46 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe84bd7…
08-17 07:02:33	will xagusd dip to 50 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x9d45e6…
08-15 01:45:43	Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x740cd1…
08-14 06:46:58	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0x4c9937…
08-13 13:25:43	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	130	0¢	$0	0xbc5cb0…
08-13 00:16:07	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	BUY	52	99¢	$51	0xf32477…
08-12 20:02:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	SELL	52	99¢	$51	0x8af9db…
08-12 06:41:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	BUY	52	99¢	$51	0x2e0a8a…
08-11 18:28:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	51	99¢	$51	0xd36480…
08-10 00:36:45	will nvda dip to 152 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4bfdbd…
08-09 10:45:01	will ethereum reach 3000 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa57b82…
08-07 21:22:10	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x0a9b05…
08-05 08:04:02	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	57	100¢	$57	0xe8f812…
08-04 10:13:35	will bitcoin reach 100k in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd341ec…
07-31 20:47:08	will ethereum dip to 1700 in july 2026 from july 6	No	BUY	11	100¢	$10	0x81c9ff…
07-30 03:46:44	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	39	99¢	$38	0x462b62…
07-29 00:54:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in July?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x51537c…
07-28 21:18:05	will xauusd reach 4400 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xae58c1…
07-27 12:02:00	will spy dip to 680 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcac84e…
07-26 04:34:52	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb9ce15…
07-26 02:25:30	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xef1e5b…
07-26 02:06:49	will wti reach 120 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x342542…
07-26 00:48:45	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9f3713…
07-24 17:37:10	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb546d3…
07-23 03:28:03	will spy dip to 680 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x1557b4…
07-22 15:45:00	will spy dip to 680 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x91c247…
07-12 23:07:26	will xagusd dip to 46 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd30819…
07-05 12:34:34	Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$4	0xc5577c…
06-30 09:01:59	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x1167b2…
06-29 01:14:56	will coin reach 195 in june 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa96140…
06-28 11:19:41	Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$18	0xd6bff8…
06-26 23:45:38	Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xa5ce86…
06-26 15:13:44	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4bba1f…
06-07 09:59:37	Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x12fc33…
06-05 16:14:16	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x411092…
05-31 11:37:20	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x23b518…
05-17 03:23:41	Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7858c4…
05-13 18:16:28	Will Sweden be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	41	100¢	$41	0x83c78c…
05-13 16:22:13	Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xd78d8f…
05-12 13:38:15	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x13ffbb…
05-09 06:39:50	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xd91ab3…
05-06 18:36:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2719c7…
05-06 05:59:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xabfc58…
05-05 21:16:18	Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x259532…
05-05 20:44:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x95f98d…
04-29 17:32:00	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in April?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x5fe497…
04-26 09:27:56	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $150 end of April?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x25572a…
04-24 08:54:52	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xa3d466…
04-22 04:22:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x37f8c9…
04-21 06:17:34	Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2a9f75…
04-20 20:49:08	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $160 end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xbdbeac…
04-19 18:27:54	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x000456…
04-19 11:06:40	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd7463e…
04-19 00:42:00	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x625ddd…
04-17 17:37:48	Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xf33f48…
04-16 02:34:10	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$2	0xaa94a1…
04-15 01:41:38	Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $220 end of April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x38d0b1…
04-14 17:07:44	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0x3dbb72…
04-14 05:15:51	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x89f109…
04-06 02:25:29	Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x0ab00f…
03-31 00:13:11	googl above 350 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x641a8f…
03-27 22:05:39	nvda above 220 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1b18bc…