Accomplished-Mandolin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.70K

Unrealized P&L

-$21

Hit rate

91.6%

Resolved

2,743

Trades

8,640

lifetime

Volume

$246.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

$341

14 positions

First seen

2026-02-03

last 10-27 03:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 246 days

Categories

Other

85% 90% -$2,138

Sports

6% 96% +$49

Crypto

5% 44% +$161

Politics

3% 75% +$209

Tech

1% 83% +$18

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

78 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions (14) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	+135	$85	61¢	$83	-$2	10-16 15:15
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Yes	+419	$61	13¢	$55	-$6	10-27 03:23
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	+96	$70	56¢	$54	-$16	10-23 02:22
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	+31	$28	98¢	$30	+$2	10-14 00:38
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+24	$20	94¢	$23	+$3	10-13 23:58
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+30	$21	76¢	$23	+$2	09-30 00:41
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+100	$21	19¢	$19	-$1	10-04 09:00
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	+20	$13	64¢	$13	+$0	10-23 12:21
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	+10	$10	98¢	$10	+$0	10-17 02:41
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+15	$10	66¢	$10	$0	10-23 12:20
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?	No	+10	$9	90¢	$9	$0	10-08 11:48
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+10	$8	76¢	$8	$0	10-09 02:03
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	No	+6	$5	86¢	$5	$0	10-27 03:23
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+10	$3	16¢	$2	-$2	09-22 17:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
highest temperature in shanghai on march 17 2026 14c	96	$4.5K	2,680	1,928	+752	No	+$29	03-17 13:24
highest temperature in hong kong on march 26 2026 28corhigher	20	$3.1K	1,552	1,552	+0	Yes	+$4	03-26 15:00
highest temperature in ankara on march 5 2026 13corhigher	2	$1.8K	1,836	0	+1,836	No	+$4	03-05 14:40
highest temperature in hong kong on april 9 2026 27c	57	$1.8K	1,441	1,297	+145	No	-$562	04-09 06:58
highest temperature in miami on march 10 2026 76 77f	6	$1.5K	763	763	+0	No	+$4	03-10 13:52
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	23	$1.5K	756	854	-99	Yes	+$34	04-30 09:20
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	21	$1.4K	1,018	1,048	-30	No	+$237	06-02 07:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	15	$1.3K	665	665	+0	No	+$5	05-16 14:45
highest temperature in hong kong on march 30 2026 25c	1	$1.3K	1,290	0	+1,290	No	+$1	03-30 06:08
highest temperature in london on march 5 2026 20corhigher	13	$1.2K	567	672	-105	No	+$0	03-05 15:00
highest temperature in hong kong on march 28 2026 25c	2	$1.2K	1,198	0	+1,198	No	+$5	03-28 04:57
highest temperature in toronto on march 2 2026 neg 4c	2	$1.2K	1,193	0	+1,193	No	+$5	03-03 03:56
highest temperature in seoul on march 10 2026 7c	4	$1.1K	1,137	0	+1,137	Yes	+$3	03-10 14:07
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 6?	5	$1.1K	550	550	+0	No	+$2	05-06 16:01
nba nyk den 2026 03 06	2	$1.1K	1,086	0	+1,086	Knicks	+$2	03-07 04:02
highest temperature in hong kong on march 25 2026 23c	1	$1.1K	1,075	0	+1,075	No	+$1	03-25 02:49
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?	10	$1.0K	534	534	+0	Yes	+$5	05-21 13:02
highest temperature in hong kong on march 21 2026 22c	39	$1.0K	592	592	+0	Yes	-$42	03-22 06:54
highest temperature in seoul on march 11 2026 5c	5	$1.0K	519	519	+0	No	$0	03-11 05:31
us forces enter iran by march 7	2	$1.0K	1,010	0	+1,010	No	+$1	03-08 04:34
highest temperature in lucknow on march 14 2026 40c	7	$1.0K	1,008	0	+1,008	No	+$2	03-14 15:11
highest temperature in paris on march 7 2026 20c	3	$1.0K	1,004	0	+1,004	No	+$2	03-07 15:16
highest temperature in miami on march 10 2026 78 79f	35	$994	497	497	+0	No	+$0	03-10 14:55
highest temperature in ankara on march 6 2026 12corhigher	1	$984	985	0	+985	No	+$1	03-06 13:13
highest temperature in lucknow on march 24 2026 41corhigher	1	$971	972	0	+972	No	+$1	03-24 09:34
highest temperature in paris on march 4 2026 20c	1	$954	955	0	+955	No	+$1	03-04 15:24
highest temperature in hong kong on march 23 2026 27c	22	$939	957	10	+947	Yes	+$12	03-23 07:55
lol g2 fox1 2026 03 20 game3 kill over 38pt5	3	$928	929	0	+929	Under	+$2	03-20 15:50
highest temperature in hong kong on april 9 2026 26c	2	$925	926	0	+926	No	+$1	04-09 04:01
highest temperature in chicago on march 5 2026 50 51f	5	$914	916	212	+705	Yes	-$209	03-06 00:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 03:23:56	Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x00b630…
10-27 03:23:33	OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x06118c…
10-27 02:09:21	Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 30.5	Yes	BUY	0	50¢	$0	0x73e8d4…
10-27 02:07:32	Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 9.5	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x9dcb92…
10-27 01:59:54	Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 30.5	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x24567c…
10-27 01:59:29	Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 29.5	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x069ccc…
10-27 01:30:45	Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 34.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x895ace…
10-27 01:08:39	Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 14.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x37693b…
10-26 00:25:56	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.75 on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x41e255…
10-23 12:21:11	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x348ef1…
10-23 12:20:54	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0xf5da1a…
10-23 12:20:41	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0x466afb…
10-23 12:12:54	SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xa604d4…
10-23 12:12:24	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x9f12c3…
10-23 02:22:38	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xfc29ec…
10-22 08:00:38	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 20?	No	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0x090283…
10-22 03:33:09	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 20?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x9d3204…
10-22 02:27:27	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 22?	No	BUY	46	100¢	$46	0xc75773…
10-22 02:26:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 22?	No	BUY	104	100¢	$103	0x0e77a7…
10-22 02:13:57	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 20?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0c3326…
10-22 01:52:23	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on October 22?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x5fa379…
10-22 01:52:23	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C or below on October 22?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3ba5f9…
10-22 01:52:09	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C or below on October 22?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xbce504…
10-22 01:48:50	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C or below on October 22?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x9ad8ae…
10-22 01:45:17	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 22?	No	BUY	126	100¢	$126	0x20bb51…
10-22 01:07:11	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 22?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xb7092f…
10-22 00:00:08	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 10°C or below on October 21?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xe58b39…
10-22 00:00:08	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 10°C or below on October 21?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xdd3ef7…
10-22 00:00:08	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on October 21?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x76bbac…
10-22 00:00:06	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on October 21?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x670998…
10-22 00:00:05	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on October 20?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x12239a…
10-21 22:28:17	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on October 20?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xa19038…
10-21 21:21:26	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on October 20?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x0f040c…
10-21 21:21:18	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x82ddd9…
10-21 14:14:11	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on October 21?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x73fbe3…
10-21 04:02:26	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on October 20?	No	BUY	51	100¢	$51	0x04d7f4…
10-21 03:43:00	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on October 20?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$79	0x5ae158…
10-21 03:38:24	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on October 20?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xb31753…
10-21 03:05:24	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 21?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x0ef9a6…
10-21 03:00:05	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 11°C on October 19?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xedf0cc…
10-20 10:40:32	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 10°C on October 19?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x60f2ff…
10-20 10:40:24	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 11°C on October 19?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x202e22…
10-20 08:28:11	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C on October 19?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0xeba395…
10-20 05:15:29	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on October 19?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x889be4…
10-20 05:02:24	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 12°C on October 19?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0xc6f0b5…
10-20 04:14:36	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 20?	No	BUY	220	100¢	$219	0x5a7a2f…
10-20 02:25:45	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 20?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf2e508…
10-20 02:03:20	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 20?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x908a4c…
10-20 00:59:35	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 20?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe78b11…
10-20 00:59:35	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 20?	No	BUY	145	100¢	$145	0x187be1…
10-19 15:01:14	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on October 19?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x4f1898…
10-19 14:59:53	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on October 19?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x229cbb…
10-19 14:59:18	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on October 19?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$99	0xd4c845…
10-19 02:11:57	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on October 19?	No	BUY	89	100¢	$88	0xb4e9ec…
10-19 02:08:56	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on October 19?	No	BUY	61	100¢	$61	0xbb9f17…
10-19 00:51:53	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on October 19?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x52d181…
10-18 14:20:12	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on October 18?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x479518…
10-18 02:16:14	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 18?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0xf6df29…
10-18 01:50:03	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 18?	No	BUY	91	100¢	$91	0xbb548c…
10-17 03:00:48	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 17?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xc89e3a…
10-17 02:56:39	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 17?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf1e39a…
10-17 02:56:08	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 17?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x09d52e…
10-17 02:41:41	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x624552…
10-17 02:41:24	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x119b42…
10-17 02:03:23	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on October 17?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xf06766…
10-17 00:49:32	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on October 17?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0b2f36…
10-16 19:01:43	SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	28¢	$1	0x7f4680…
10-16 19:01:20	SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x5cecfd…
10-16 15:15:16	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x16df0b…
10-16 13:50:13	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on October 16?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3980e8…
10-16 10:49:37	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x28f52d…
10-16 01:39:54	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 16?	No	BUY	129	100¢	$129	0xda4f08…
10-16 01:39:36	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 16?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xebca09…
10-15 13:57:19	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on October 15?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xae9d36…
10-15 13:57:19	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on October 15?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x50d3f1…
10-15 13:56:04	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on October 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$7	0x38f38b…
10-14 16:57:01	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 14?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x2db2b7…
10-14 16:48:52	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 14?	No	BUY	83	100¢	$83	0x2723c7…
10-14 14:50:42	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on October 14?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x28aa84…
10-14 14:10:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 15 2026	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x37a1c2…
10-14 14:10:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 15 2026	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x1ca337…
10-14 13:53:41	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on October 14?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xeddeba…
10-14 13:45:32	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on October 14?	No	BUY	147	100¢	$146	0xae5930…
10-14 13:42:39	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C or below on October 14?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xbae2a6…
10-14 13:42:38	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C or below on October 14?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2f522c…
10-14 13:39:48	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on October 14?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xacd865…
10-14 05:20:44	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 14?	No	BUY	300	100¢	$298	0xca270c…
10-14 02:29:01	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 14?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x076169…
10-14 01:50:25	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 14?	No	BUY	113	100¢	$113	0x9d27bb…
10-14 00:38:36	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xed55e6…
10-14 00:01:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0xf8a7e4…
10-13 23:58:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0xbac6ba…
10-13 13:36:16	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0x68938f…
10-13 13:27:04	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x60eee1…
10-13 13:26:59	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xf24815…
10-13 13:24:59	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	99¢	$46	0x93837f…
10-13 02:28:47	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 13?	No	BUY	59	100¢	$58	0xd1f8dc…
10-13 02:16:59	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x5d62ed…
10-12 11:02:35	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C or below on October 12?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbadb51…
10-12 07:19:46	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x6bf8dc…