Ill-Informed-Heaven — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$536

Unrealized P&L

-$18

Hit rate

40.3%

Resolved

296

Trades

1,130

lifetime

Volume

$7.90K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$173

4 positions

First seen

2026-04-18

last 07-05 19:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 34 days

Categories

Crypto

53% 42% -$445

Sports

24% 33% -$230

Politics

17% 29% -$27

Other

6% 80% +$165

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-05).

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	-183	-$80	66¢	$-120	-$39	05-12 02:08
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	-34	-$29	97¢	$-33	-$3	05-03 18:02
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-862	-$43	2¢	$-13	+$30	05-06 23:52
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	-168	-$2	4¢	$-7	-$5	07-05 19:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	37	$1.6K	17,767	5,201	+12,566	No	-$374	05-28 01:21
Trump out as President before 2027?	16	$492	2,375	2,543	-168	open	—	07-05 19:58
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	5	$227	0	572	-572	Yes	+$227	05-10 05:15
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	8	$198	161	161	+0	Yes	-$2	05-28 01:20
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	10	$197	132	132	+0	Yes	-$3	05-28 01:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	6	$192	123	123	+0	No	-$8	05-25 01:46
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	3	$191	161	161	+0	Sean Strickland	+$131	05-10 05:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	4	$174	219	135	+84	Up	+$42	05-24 18:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	5	$128	137	93	+44	Up	+$4	05-24 18:59
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	4	$114	39	221	-183	open	—	05-12 02:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	6	$114	113	100	+12	Down	+$58	05-24 18:49
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Canadiens vs. Lightning	4	$105	109	107	+2	Habs	+$34	04-27 01:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	5	$97	131	56	+75	Up	-$13	05-25 01:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	4	$85	270	48	+221	Down	-$35	05-25 01:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	3	$76	76	45	+31	Down	+$6	05-25 01:53
Kash Patel out by April 30?	6	$67	513	0	+513	No	-$67	04-27 19:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	3	$66	293	0	+293	Up	-$66	05-24 19:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	4	$63	70	45	+25	Down	+$11	06-01 16:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	7	$58	48	48	+0	Down	+$36	05-22 22:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	3	$56	183	0	+183	Down	-$56	06-01 16:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	8	$55	162	162	+0	Up	+$5	05-26 20:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	7	$50	134	42	+92	Up	+$6	06-01 01:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	3	$47	42	42	+0	Up	+$35	05-25 01:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	10	$47	43	43	+0	Down	+$9	05-26 21:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	4	$46	109	0	+109	Up	-$46	06-01 16:17
Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?	1	$44	0	62	-62	open	—	05-10 20:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	6	$43	147	139	+7	Down	+$1	05-24 23:18
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	1	$43	0	862	-862	open	—	05-06 23:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	5	$41	52	29	+22	Up	-$7	05-22 23:24
highest temperature in seoul on april 20 2026 17corhigher	2	$41	123	118	+5	No	+$1	04-19 18:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-05 19:58:25	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	339	6¢	$20	0x336e75…
06-09 18:21:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 18:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x4faa35…
06-09 18:20:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 18:20 UTC	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x8467ef…
06-09 18:20:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 18:20 UTC	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xea97ac…
06-09 18:20:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 18:20 UTC	Down	SELL	3	67¢	$2	0xf4fdc4…
06-09 18:20:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 18:20 UTC	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xfc607e…
06-09 18:20:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 18:20 UTC	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x0ea945…
06-09 18:18:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 18:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xbe624e…
06-09 18:18:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 18:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xa3125a…
06-09 18:18:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 18:15 UTC	Up	SELL	6	72¢	$4	0xa084c3…
06-09 18:16:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 18:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xaf0b2c…
06-09 18:16:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 18:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x556442…
06-09 18:16:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 18:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x53b91c…
06-09 18:13:45	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	39	10¢	$4	0xf040be…
06-03 15:00:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xe03888…
06-03 15:00:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x60c620…
06-03 15:00:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x346385…
06-03 15:00:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xc50fbb…
06-03 15:00:03	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	41	10¢	$4	0xc456d7…
06-02 21:25:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xdab167…
06-02 21:25:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0xd63b2b…
06-02 21:23:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xdddeeb…
06-02 21:22:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x38c1fc…
06-02 21:21:56	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	77	10¢	$8	0xab6b2c…
06-01 16:40:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x5e7f0b…
06-01 16:40:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xcb30de…
06-01 16:39:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x3cf97b…
06-01 16:39:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x94a201…
06-01 16:39:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xe40eb7…
06-01 16:38:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x411a1b…
06-01 16:35:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xcc78e4…
06-01 16:33:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0x511a4a…
06-01 16:32:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xb70ef0…
06-01 16:32:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	SELL	8	66¢	$5	0x0f7f30…
06-01 16:31:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xe9094a…
06-01 16:31:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x6c43b0…
06-01 16:31:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x671d8a…
06-01 16:30:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	SELL	4	69¢	$3	0xe810c4…
06-01 16:30:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x458dd4…
06-01 16:30:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x4d2aa6…
06-01 16:28:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xd492d9…
06-01 16:26:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x22253c…
06-01 16:26:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x98332c…
06-01 16:25:56	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	96	10¢	$10	0x1a5da6…
06-01 16:21:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0xadf2aa…
06-01 16:20:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xce0420…
06-01 16:20:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x975876…
06-01 16:20:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x9a0339…
06-01 16:17:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0xfcd7b4…
06-01 16:17:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0xb77bc9…
06-01 16:15:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	49	41¢	$20	0x414ad7…
06-01 16:15:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0xda21dc…
06-01 16:11:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0xdd4cdd…
06-01 16:11:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x86915a…
06-01 16:11:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	SELL	45	81¢	$37	0x759220…
06-01 16:10:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	45	44¢	$20	0x2f401e…
06-01 16:06:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0x5809fe…
06-01 16:06:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0x2eff5c…
06-01 16:05:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	152	33¢	$50	0xaf7d5a…
06-01 16:05:08	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,103	10¢	$110	0xd0a4f5…
06-01 16:00:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x81f90f…
06-01 16:00:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x9d3aa3…
06-01 15:58:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0xa78edb…
06-01 15:57:26	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	71	10¢	$7	0x45268d…
06-01 02:02:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x913cde…
06-01 02:02:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xa5084c…
06-01 02:02:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	SELL	4	59¢	$2	0xa31002…
06-01 02:01:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x642c9b…
06-01 02:01:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xa9c2d2…
06-01 02:00:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x7495e5…
06-01 02:00:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xee446d…
06-01 02:00:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x390f16…
06-01 01:58:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x441596…
06-01 01:58:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x0a6c41…
06-01 01:58:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x57c034…
06-01 01:57:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x7bc503…
06-01 01:55:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xf08a6b…
06-01 01:55:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xcfe915…
06-01 01:52:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xa6a7c8…
06-01 01:51:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0x622ee1…
06-01 01:51:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x06e6a6…
06-01 01:51:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	SELL	19	66¢	$13	0x170a99…
06-01 01:50:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x4d58f3…
06-01 01:50:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x3ad257…
06-01 01:49:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x4eede7…
06-01 01:48:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x398d16…
06-01 01:48:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	SELL	42	67¢	$28	0x2e5e02…
06-01 01:46:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0x3f7f80…
06-01 01:45:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x5487a7…
06-01 01:45:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xc08244…
06-01 01:45:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x4fd98a…
06-01 01:42:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xfff0ef…
06-01 01:42:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	SELL	17	51¢	$9	0x5c22b9…
06-01 01:41:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x4fdeee…
06-01 01:40:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	SELL	8	83¢	$7	0x9a3f7e…
06-01 01:40:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x3e3d59…
06-01 01:39:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xd243a5…
06-01 01:37:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x717cd3…
06-01 01:36:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x46c1e5…
06-01 01:36:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x39dba6…