Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$78

Unrealized P&L

-$34

Hit rate

61.8%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

637 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$2.45K

$14.6K lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

$16

2 positions

First seen

2026-07-17

last 11-02 22:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 60 days

Categories

Other

63% 56% +$87

Politics

35% 75% +$483

Tech

2% 60% -$6

Crypto

1% 70% -$24

Sports

0% 100% +$17

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa by October 31?	No		+20	$14	77¢	$15	+$1	10-24 11:31
Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 24% or more?	No		+107	$35	1¢	$1	-$34	10-28 11:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will OpenRouter process between 155T and 160T tokens the week of September 28?	5	$227	137	137	+0	No	+$26	10-04 19:50
next fable model 5pt2 released by october 17 2026	4	$183	195	195	+0	No	+$34	10-14 11:41
Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat quarterly earnings?	2	$168	126	126	+0	No	+$83	10-13 10:45
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by September 30, 2026?	5	$160	328	0	+328	Yes	-$160	09-30 21:26
Will MrBeast say "Feastable" or "Feastables" during his next YouTube video?	7	$157	400	0	+400	Yes	-$157	10-03 10:42
Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?	4	$148	112	112	+0	open	—	09-30 20:53
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 29?	2	$147	98	98	+0	No	+$48	10-29 10:30
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	2	$140	102	102	+0	No	+$63	10-04 23:32
Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?	6	$139	478	0	+478	Yes	-$139	09-30 06:59
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 27?	2	$133	83	83	+0	No	+$33	10-27 20:04
Will Warsh say "Pressure" or "Stagflation" during October Press Conference?	2	$130	93	93	+0	No	+$54	10-28 19:48
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 45 million views on day 1?	3	$130	171	0	+171	Yes	-$130	10-02 20:27
Will US gas hit $4.18 (Low) the week of October 26?	2	$121	91	91	+0	Yes	+$59	10-31 19:27
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?	2	$118	68	68	+0	No	+$18	10-25 23:24
shipping targeted in hormuz on october 16 2026	3	$118	97	97	+0	Yes	+$18	10-14 19:54
United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 83% to 84%?	2	$116	106	106	+0	Yes	+$96	10-20 20:04
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	2	$116	66	66	+0	open	—	11-02 10:45
Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?	3	$113	88	88	+0	Yes	+$59	11-01 00:09
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	3	$109	151	100	+51	Yes	+$135	10-06 20:02
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	2	$106	63	63	+0	No	+$7	10-13 19:58
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 12, 2026?	2	$102	56	56	+0	Yes	+$2	10-10 19:52
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	2	$102	66	66	+0	open	—	10-11 23:54
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	2	$98	81	81	+0	No	+$0	10-17 10:26
Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5?	2	$95	53	53	+0	Yes	+$7	10-11 19:59
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	2	$93	83	83	+0	Yes	-$7	10-26 19:38
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	2	$91	139	139	+0	No	+$14	10-04 04:43
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in July 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?	3	$89	105	105	+0	Yes	+$28	09-29 06:54
Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	4	$88	126	64	+62	No	-$26	10-15 16:09
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on October 5?	2	$87	57	57	+0	No	+$27	10-05 10:25
israel military action against lebanon on october 19	4	$87	55	55	+0	Yes	+$3	10-19 20:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 22:59:24	Will Andy Burnham say "Trump" during the next PMQ?	Yes	BUY	21	29¢	$6	0xa4376f…
11-02 20:27:52	Will Andy Burnham say "Trump" during the next PMQ?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xe9e2db…
11-02 17:03:55	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x58addf…
11-02 17:03:48	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xa32cd0…
11-02 17:03:33	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x5b6dd6…
11-02 16:51:24	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xb86b2b…
11-02 16:46:10	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x492b86…
11-02 16:45:04	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xf13936…
11-02 16:27:49	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on November 4?	No	BUY	37	65¢	$24	0x23f304…
11-02 10:59:54	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on November 3?	No	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0xac58bd…
11-02 10:45:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	66	99¢	$66	0xd4edcd…
11-02 10:45:46	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on November 3?	No	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0xb5adaf…
11-02 10:45:37	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on November 3?	No	BUY	38	54¢	$20	0xe5ac36…
11-02 00:17:12	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on November 3?	No	BUY	74	66¢	$49	0xee90ca…
11-02 00:17:04	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on November 3?	No	BUY	56	79¢	$44	0x2d686a…
11-01 23:59:28	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on November 3?	No	BUY	36	62¢	$22	0x6985f1…
11-01 23:59:19	Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 86% to 88%?	No	BUY	102	48¢	$49	0xc5ad6e…
11-01 19:51:18	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on November 3?	No	BUY	18	54¢	$10	0x22eeef…
11-01 19:38:15	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on November 2?	No	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0x79a251…
11-01 16:03:52	Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 Wearables, Home and Accessories revenue be above $8.75B?	Yes	BUY	13	73¢	$9	0x7c9f81…
11-01 10:51:55	Will "Korea" or "Korean" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	13	58¢	$8	0x3767e5…
11-01 10:47:16	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on November 1?	No	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0xaa7803…
11-01 10:47:07	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on November 1?	Yes	BUY	11	69¢	$8	0xe2d99e…
11-01 10:41:15	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on November 1?	No	SELL	14	96¢	$13	0xdb7b69…
11-01 10:34:52	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on November 1?	No	SELL	16	32¢	$5	0x5e38af…
11-01 00:09:52	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?	Yes	SELL	61	98¢	$60	0x8db385…
10-31 20:01:43	Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Kansas?	No	BUY	78	48¢	$38	0x7437b6…
10-31 20:01:34	Will Daniel Mullen win the 2026 Charlottetown mayoral election?	No	BUY	41	72¢	$29	0xcc9d3a…
10-31 20:01:25	Will Philip Brown win the 2026 Charlottetown mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	95	44¢	$41	0x32293f…
10-31 20:01:13	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on November 1?	Yes	BUY	69	19¢	$13	0x2385bd…
10-31 19:27:54	Will US gas hit $4.18 (Low) the week of October 26?	Yes	SELL	91	99¢	$90	0xb9975f…
10-31 15:57:01	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on November 2?	No	BUY	18	68¢	$12	0xba2143…
10-31 15:56:54	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on November 1?	No	BUY	19	60¢	$12	0x907269…
10-31 15:56:46	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on November 1?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x61cc7b…
10-31 15:56:37	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on November 2?	No	BUY	28	44¢	$12	0x73d28e…
10-31 15:56:30	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on November 1?	No	BUY	16	70¢	$11	0xbbdeb5…
10-31 11:13:04	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 22-24%?	Yes	BUY	217	17¢	$37	0x92ac81…
10-31 11:02:19	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on November 2?	No	BUY	35	70¢	$25	0xf16eb5…
10-31 11:02:10	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on November 2?	No	BUY	44	55¢	$24	0x041c8d…
10-31 11:02:01	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on November 2?	No	BUY	37	66¢	$24	0x4ebe5f…
10-31 11:01:52	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on November 1?	No	BUY	39	63¢	$24	0x4a094c…
10-31 00:01:45	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on November 1?	No	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0xc34374…
10-30 20:24:21	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on November 1?	No	BUY	72	69¢	$50	0x76041e…
10-30 20:24:12	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	122	41¢	$50	0xa92b1a…
10-30 16:04:21	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?	Yes	BUY	142	19¢	$27	0xb41a2a…
10-30 15:52:15	Will PPI YoY be 6.8% or more in October?	No	BUY	70	70¢	$49	0x8f0d78…
10-30 10:54:16	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	SELL	62	45¢	$28	0xd6365b…
10-30 00:13:16	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming Senate election by 35%-40%?	Yes	BUY	117	27¢	$32	0x1c5f97…
10-30 00:05:36	Will Lacy Schneemann / Ting Chieh Wei advance to the Round of 16 in Women's Doubles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships?	Yes	BUY	66	75¢	$49	0x05f42d…
10-30 00:05:28	Will Kate Fahey / Tina Pisnik advance to the Round of 16 in Women's Doubles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships?	Yes	BUY	52	78¢	$40	0xa91531…
10-29 23:58:07	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 8°C on October 31?	No	BUY	92	54¢	$50	0x6d1daa…
10-29 23:53:15	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	49	14¢	$7	0x52f8cd…
10-29 23:53:13	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0xae36ff…
10-29 20:09:55	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	24	17¢	$4	0x216af1…
10-29 16:38:32	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 31?	No	BUY	92	54¢	$50	0xff209b…
10-29 16:38:32	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	44	20¢	$9	0x849986…
10-29 16:38:23	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida be 9,000,000 or more?	No	BUY	59	84¢	$50	0x095650…
10-29 11:29:29	US imports Russian diesel by November 15?	Yes	BUY	77	60¢	$46	0x46dee1…
10-29 11:11:05	Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" or "Kamala" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?	No	BUY	77	64¢	$50	0xf2543e…
10-29 11:10:56	Will US gas hit $4.18 (Low) the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	91	34¢	$31	0x21dc7b…
10-29 11:10:49	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	31¢	$47	0xf0e59e…
10-29 10:30:52	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 29?	No	SELL	98	100¢	$98	0x45df92…
10-29 00:01:22	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 29?	No	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0x7eeb7d…
10-29 00:01:13	will trump say russia during his midterm rally in florida october 30 daytona	No	BUY	26	42¢	$11	0xb14c14…
10-28 20:03:16	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	33¢	$7	0x321497…
10-28 20:01:46	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	49	41¢	$20	0xec8878…
10-28 19:48:44	Will Warsh say "Pressure" or "Stagflation" during October Press Conference?	No	SELL	93	99¢	$92	0xbc2304…
10-28 19:48:43	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	68	40¢	$27	0xa4b790…
10-28 19:31:41	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?	Yes	SELL	27	98¢	$26	0x89d6c3…
10-28 15:59:14	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	98	1¢	$1	0xb737d6…
10-28 11:12:23	Will Trump say "America First" during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?	No	BUY	248	20¢	$50	0xb3012f…
10-28 11:10:52	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 29?	No	BUY	19	63¢	$12	0xc99654…
10-28 11:09:22	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 24% or more?	No	BUY	107	33¢	$35	0x82f78d…
10-28 10:52:58	Will RZP-Zehut win 4-5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	26	98¢	$26	0xdf21c3…
10-28 10:52:58	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on October 28?	No	BUY	41	60¢	$25	0x2f3f29…
10-27 20:40:48	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 15°C on October 29?	No	BUY	52	57¢	$30	0xdcb6c9…
10-27 20:37:08	Visa (V) Q4 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars) 14.5% to 15.5%?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x32212a…
10-27 20:18:08	Will Trump say "America First" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	No	BUY	70	34¢	$24	0x964532…
10-27 20:16:36	Will Hyatt Hotels (H) Q3 system-wide hotels RevPAR be above $152?	No	BUY	13	41¢	$5	0x98fc39…
10-27 20:15:05	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 29?	No	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0x5e156d…
10-27 20:04:35	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 27?	No	SELL	83	100¢	$83	0xcff1a6…
10-27 16:03:24	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	No	BUY	71	56¢	$40	0xf2edc3…
10-27 10:53:44	Will Trump say "Barbecue" during his Midterm Rally in Corpus Christi, Texas?	No	BUY	25	39¢	$10	0xd22114…
10-27 10:49:02	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	38¢	$10	0xd52156…
10-27 10:49:02	Will Trump say "Barbecue" during his Midterm Rally in Corpus Christi, Texas?	No	BUY	102	38¢	$39	0xb66134…
10-27 00:11:36	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 27?	No	BUY	48	54¢	$26	0xd82b34…
10-26 20:07:27	Will RZP-Zehut win 4-5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	26	70¢	$18	0x7937b0…
10-26 19:53:08	Will Trump say "River" or "Fish" or "Fishing" during his Midterm Rally in Mississippi?	No	BUY	146	34¢	$50	0x850512…
10-26 19:38:05	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	83	52¢	$43	0x23fdaf…
10-26 16:02:42	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	46¢	$6	0xfc9a90…
10-26 16:02:42	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on October 28?	No	BUY	102	49¢	$50	0x341d5d…
10-26 11:25:47	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	31¢	$8	0x5b9332…
10-26 11:25:45	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Yes	BUY	40	38¢	$15	0x4eca1c…
10-26 11:24:15	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0x2c22f7…
10-26 11:22:45	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x24e013…
10-26 11:21:14	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 27?	No	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x3f54bf…
10-26 00:11:45	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	98	39¢	$38	0x93f324…
10-26 00:10:15	Will Andy Burnham say "Scotland" during the next PMQ?	No	BUY	103	29¢	$30	0xd9f4f2…
10-25 23:24:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?	No	SELL	68	100¢	$68	0x369c37…
10-25 15:52:51	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	34	56¢	$19	0x193cf5…