Apprehensive-Layer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$82

Unrealized P&L

-$17

Hit rate

21.5%

Resolved

Trades

103

lifetime

Volume

$281

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-25

last 05-31 16:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Crypto

69% 43% -$13

Sports

24% 0% -$50

Other

7% 0% -$19

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-31).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+222	$20	1¢	$3	-$17	05-25 09:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	5	$56	3,941	3,941	+0	No	-$6	05-31 16:01
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	1	$50	100	0	+100	No	-$50	05-25 09:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	16	$24	26	19	+6	Down	+$2	05-27 22:54
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	2	$20	222	0	+222	open	—	05-25 09:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	13	$18	16	13	+3	Down	$0	05-27 23:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	14	$15	13	12	+1	Up	-$2	05-27 23:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	10	$15	13	9	+4	Up	+$1	05-27 23:04
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	2	$12	68	0	+68	No	-$12	05-25 09:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	7	$9	9	4	+5	Down	-$3	05-27 22:59
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$9	24	24	+0	No	$0	05-26 18:06
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$8	43	43	+0	No	$0	05-27 22:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	4	$7	8	3	+5	Down	-$2	05-27 22:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	4	$6	8	2	+6	Up	+$2	05-27 22:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	4	$5	52	2	+50	Up	-$1	05-27 23:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	2	$5	3	3	+0	Up	+$1	05-27 22:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	Up	-$5	05-27 22:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	4	$4	5	0	+5	Up	+$1	05-27 22:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	1	$3	6	0	+6	Up	-$3	05-27 22:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	05-27 22:26
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	1	$1	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$1	05-31 16:02
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	1	$1	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$1	05-31 16:02
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	1	$1	500	0	+500	No	-$1	05-25 09:55
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	1	$1	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$1	05-31 16:02
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	1	$1	131	0	+131	No	-$1	05-31 16:02
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	1	$1	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$1	05-31 16:02
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	1	$1	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$1	05-31 16:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-31 16:02:56	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	131	1¢	$1	0xd575c0…
05-31 16:02:51	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x2ca421…
05-31 16:02:45	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x61c500…
05-31 16:02:35	Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xf32b15…
05-31 16:02:21	Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x3b2505…
05-31 16:02:10	Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x1e3e6d…
05-31 16:01:20	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,084	0¢	$5	0x4c9c05…
05-27 23:18:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x9f5c40…
05-27 23:17:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xd85a81…
05-27 23:16:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xb437e4…
05-27 23:16:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x6d6a27…
05-27 23:14:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa74bb7…
05-27 23:14:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x60fb3c…
05-27 23:14:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x1a61d7…
05-27 23:14:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	SELL	4	26¢	$1	0xf85479…
05-27 23:13:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	SELL	1	71¢	$1	0x6b9df8…
05-27 23:12:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x950e4f…
05-27 23:12:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0xcdda1b…
05-27 23:11:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xb65cb5…
05-27 23:11:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	SELL	1	64¢	$1	0x53611d…
05-27 23:11:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0x66af78…
05-27 23:11:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x4bf30c…
05-27 23:10:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0x80c0c6…
05-27 23:10:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x143247…
05-27 23:10:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0xf452df…
05-27 23:09:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x27897d…
05-27 23:08:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x85f68f…
05-27 23:08:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x6f72dc…
05-27 23:08:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xf31f76…
05-27 23:07:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xc9895f…
05-27 23:07:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	SELL	3	36¢	$1	0xe9cd27…
05-27 23:06:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x6c0c46…
05-27 23:06:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	SELL	4	75¢	$3	0xbee6c6…
05-27 23:06:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0x84f23d…
05-27 23:06:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0x53b3c8…
05-27 23:05:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0xeb79ea…
05-27 23:05:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xef5153…
05-27 23:05:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xd506cb…
05-27 23:04:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	SELL	2	3¢	$0	0x26b154…
05-27 23:03:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xef0b56…
05-27 23:03:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x6ff432…
05-27 23:03:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x5ec686…
05-27 23:03:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x0f9f3c…
05-27 23:03:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	SELL	6	85¢	$5	0x83c790…
05-27 23:00:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x98ffaf…
05-27 23:00:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0xfe7c9d…
05-27 23:00:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x998435…
05-27 22:59:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x8c0ab5…
05-27 22:59:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x803aa1…
05-27 22:58:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x4b05d8…
05-27 22:58:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x2d1bd7…
05-27 22:57:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x0fac29…
05-27 22:56:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	SELL	2	85¢	$1	0xe524c5…
05-27 22:55:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x8b1372…
05-27 22:55:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xd04c0e…
05-27 22:54:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xbadef8…
05-27 22:54:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x88d210…
05-27 22:54:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x2acf8c…
05-27 22:54:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x024575…
05-27 22:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x3f55d7…
05-27 22:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x0e3c76…
05-27 22:54:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	SELL	7	61¢	$4	0x4fb1de…
05-27 22:53:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x9930ae…
05-27 22:53:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x66c507…
05-27 22:52:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x9ac22d…
05-27 22:52:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	SELL	12	45¢	$6	0xd2cda9…
05-27 22:51:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xdd615f…
05-27 22:51:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xf39489…
05-27 22:51:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xb8789e…
05-27 22:51:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x2129fe…
05-27 22:50:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x84d8e8…
05-27 22:48:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	SELL	3	3¢	$0	0xe781a7…
05-27 22:47:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xbdf32b…
05-27 22:46:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x76b9ca…
05-27 22:45:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x0ce9ad…
05-27 22:44:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	SELL	2	32¢	$1	0x1c1df9…
05-27 22:41:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xb6d0c7…
05-27 22:41:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x7b2111…
05-27 22:40:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xcde4fa…
05-27 22:39:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x0af018…
05-27 22:39:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x78579c…
05-27 22:39:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xdd9b20…
05-27 22:38:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x42ada8…
05-27 22:37:01	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	43	9¢	$4	0xa52d36…
05-27 22:29:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x70bdf3…
05-27 22:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0x00af29…
05-27 22:26:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x347fd8…
05-27 22:26:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x72d13f…
05-27 22:20:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x82614d…
05-27 22:15:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xcaab03…
05-27 22:09:00	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,084	1¢	$11	0xe6b2d3…
05-27 22:08:35	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,857	1¢	$20	0xf97467…
05-26 18:07:02	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	43	9¢	$4	0x1c571d…
05-26 18:06:35	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	24	17¢	$4	0x5de5b6…
05-25 10:00:57	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	24	18¢	$4	0xb4fbb7…
05-25 09:55:56	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	18¢	$4	0x15abe7…
05-25 09:55:42	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x3584a3…
05-25 09:51:33	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	18¢	$8	0x8d0c6f…
05-25 09:46:22	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x25ce94…
05-25 09:46:08	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x107b19…