Shimmering-Grocery — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

10.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$996

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-02 16:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 27 days

Categories

Politics

45% 0% -$1

Other

41% 18% -$8

Crypto

6% 100% +$18

Sports

5% 0% $0

Tech

3% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes		+12	$4	42¢	$5	+$1	10-02 16:50
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes		+26	$6	15¢	$4	-$2	10-02 16:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	2	$191	96	96	+0	open	—	07-24 07:47
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 23	2	$121	61	61	+0	Yes	$0	07-24 07:47
Will Isaac del Toro win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?	5	$86	100	100	+0	Yes	-$7	07-24 07:19
will ilhan omar resign by march 31	2	$67	34	34	+0	No	$0	01-04 04:55
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	3	$62	100	100	+0	Yes	+$0	05-02 02:57
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 2?	3	$49	50	50	+0	No	$0	05-02 03:10
Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	3	$32	54	54	+0	Yes	-$1	07-24 07:08
Will Andoni Iraola be the next Chelsea manager?	3	$32	16	16	+0	No	$0	01-04 06:15
Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?	2	$30	15	15	+0	No	$0	05-02 04:58
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	3	$28	15	15	+0	No	$0	05-02 04:58
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$23	12	12	+0	No	$0	07-09 13:27
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?	2	$22	11	11	+0	No	$0	05-02 04:58
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	2	$22	11	11	+0	No	$0	09-15 12:19
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$15	8	8	+0	No	$0	07-09 13:27
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $296 in May?	2	$15	12	12	+0	Yes	$0	05-02 02:43
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	2	$14	7	7	+0	No	+$0	09-15 11:40
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	2	$14	7	7	+0	open	—	05-02 04:59
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	2	$12	6	6	+0	No	$0	05-02 04:59
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	2	$12	6	6	+0	No	$0	05-12 07:08
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April?	2	$12	6	6	+0	No	+$0	04-17 14:37
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on September 16?	2	$12	6	6	+0	No	$0	09-15 12:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$11	6	6	+0	No	$0	05-12 06:44
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?	2	$11	20	0	+20	Yes	+$8	06-03 03:23
Will Croatia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	2	$11	6	6	+0	No	$0	05-12 06:45
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	1	$11	11	0	+11	No	+$0	05-12 07:17
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	$0	04-23 08:30
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?	1	$10	20	0	+20	Yes	+$10	10-02 16:49
sbux quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 28 2026 0pt69	2	$8	20	20	+0	Yes	$0	07-24 05:52
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$6	0	6	-6	No	$0	05-02 01:56
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	1	$6	26	0	+26	open	—	10-02 16:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-02 16:52:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	26	23¢	$6	0xc24aea…
10-02 16:50:03	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	12	33¢	$4	0x0aeec3…
10-02 16:49:20	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x5af8b0…
09-15 12:19:39	Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x8206f0…
09-15 12:19:22	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on September 16?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x64caa1…
09-15 11:50:28	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on September 16?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x8c1b1a…
09-15 11:48:13	Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x1e4ca3…
09-15 11:40:58	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x5bd5d6…
08-26 10:42:57	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x2979d8…
07-24 07:47:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 23	Yes	SELL	61	99¢	$61	0xe32102…
07-24 07:47:00	Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	SELL	96	100¢	$96	0x567353…
07-24 07:23:01	Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	BUY	96	100¢	$96	0xf84bbe…
07-24 07:22:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 23	Yes	BUY	61	99¢	$61	0x40a833…
07-24 07:20:40	will american express say wealth during earnings call 20260717164416074	Yes	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0x52b0dd…
07-24 07:20:06	will american express say wealth during earnings call 20260717164416074	Yes	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0xaa9560…
07-24 07:19:25	Will Isaac del Toro win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?	No	SELL	70	39¢	$27	0x7dd681…
07-24 07:19:21	Will Isaac del Toro win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?	No	SELL	30	40¢	$12	0x0f576e…
07-24 07:17:46	Will Isaac del Toro win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?	No	BUY	23	46¢	$11	0xc2ce61…
07-24 07:17:18	Will Isaac del Toro win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?	No	BUY	27	46¢	$12	0xa92713…
07-24 07:17:15	Will Isaac del Toro win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?	No	BUY	50	47¢	$24	0x8dc110…
07-24 07:08:45	Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	No	SELL	54	29¢	$16	0x1a514f…
07-24 07:08:24	Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	No	BUY	34	30¢	$10	0xdc929e…
07-24 07:07:31	Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	No	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0xc63932…
07-24 06:43:19	Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	36¢	$3	0x28c7a7…
07-24 06:42:45	Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	36¢	$3	0x9bb3bf…
07-24 06:20:19	will american express say inventory during earnings call 20260717164416068	Yes	SELL	2	21¢	$1	0xaa7bac…
07-24 06:18:48	will american express say wealth during earnings call 20260717164416074	Yes	BUY	2	12¢	$0	0x00c383…
07-24 06:18:45	will american express say inventory during earnings call 20260717164416068	Yes	BUY	2	23¢	$1	0x29d1c0…
07-24 05:52:51	sbux quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 28 2026 0pt69	No	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x83aa89…
07-24 05:52:10	sbux quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 28 2026 0pt69	No	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x8f65b7…
07-09 13:27:53	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	12	97¢	$12	0xe3bdce…
07-09 13:27:38	Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$7	0x1ae5fd…
07-09 12:38:23	Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$7	0x167b79…
07-09 12:37:13	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0xc77250…
06-03 03:23:32	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?	Yes	BUY	6	59¢	$4	0x2844a7…
06-03 03:23:10	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?	Yes	BUY	13	58¢	$8	0x58701a…
05-12 07:17:38	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x13869c…
05-12 07:14:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x67670f…
05-12 07:09:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x1b4d14…
05-12 07:08:35	Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x39588c…
05-12 06:53:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe461ee…
05-12 06:51:30	Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x154eb2…
05-12 06:45:26	Will Croatia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xe6f308…
05-12 06:44:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x113c9c…
05-12 06:37:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x6c6c07…
05-12 06:36:18	Will Croatia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x5adcd8…
05-02 04:59:14	Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x3662ab…
05-02 04:59:02	Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x78079b…
05-02 04:58:48	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	9	95¢	$8	0x57bdad…
05-02 04:58:44	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0xf34e77…
05-02 04:58:30	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x63e81a…
05-02 04:58:14	Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x6ca452…
05-02 04:54:42	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x931ebe…
05-02 04:18:28	Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xe833ec…
05-02 04:13:54	Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x2ab995…
05-02 04:13:02	Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x6e2712…
05-02 04:12:22	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0xe75dcf…
05-02 03:10:14	Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 2?	Yes	SELL	26	48¢	$12	0x31c3de…
05-02 03:09:36	Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 2?	Yes	SELL	24	49¢	$12	0xcd3029…
05-02 03:09:12	Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 2?	Yes	BUY	50	49¢	$24	0x1e64b0…
05-02 02:57:08	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0xb6f55f…
05-02 02:55:48	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0xea62dc…
05-02 02:55:28	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0x31146b…
05-02 02:43:30	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $296 in May?	No	SELL	12	60¢	$7	0xb33ab9…
05-02 02:42:56	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $296 in May?	No	BUY	12	61¢	$7	0x93c0b0…
05-02 01:56:04	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0xb239f5…
04-23 08:30:32	Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x061ca2…
04-23 07:54:50	Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc34007…
04-17 14:37:02	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xc999d1…
04-10 14:43:23	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x81f858…
03-15 09:29:57	elon musk of tweets march 14 march 16 0 39	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x7a28b4…
02-04 15:52:07	solana above 100 on february 4	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x46e1e9…
01-04 06:15:45	Will Andoni Iraola be the next Chelsea manager?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x3ce2df…
01-04 06:15:37	Will Andoni Iraola be the next Chelsea manager?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xe25691…
01-04 04:55:31	will ilhan omar resign by march 31	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0xeb9667…
01-04 03:19:59	Will Andoni Iraola be the next Chelsea manager?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xfe2ae1…
01-04 03:19:41	will ilhan omar resign by march 31	No	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0x8e89e7…