Arid-Moccasins — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$10.6K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

24.2%

Resolved (90d)

933

Trades (90d)

981

1,018 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$14.7K

$27.5K lifetime

Avg / trade

$27

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-30

last 11-02 22:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 30 days

Categories

Other

76% 47% -$10,995

Crypto

22% 74% -$73

Politics

2% 0% -$460

Sports

0% 50% +$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 194 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$7.6K	10,001	0	+10,001	Yes	-$7,597	08-18 00:02
Fed rate hike in 2026?	11	$7.5K	10,472	10,472	+0	Yes	-$1,607	09-16 08:09
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	7	$2.5K	3,987	3,987	+0	No	-$1,415	09-16 10:04
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 16?	6	$2.1K	1,200	1,200	+0	Yes	+$274	07-16 14:16
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 17?	3	$1.0K	900	900	+0	No	-$507	07-17 07:04
will trump accuse china of election interference by july 16 20260714013930794	5	$460	955	0	+955	Yes	-$460	07-16 16:26
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 17?	2	$255	382	382	+0	No	-$209	07-17 08:10
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$91	120	0	+120	Yes	+$29	07-24 10:22
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 15?	2	$55	30	30	+0	Yes	+$5	07-15 12:53
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$53	90	0	+90	Yes	+$37	07-19 16:25
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14?	2	$45	26	26	+0	Yes	+$5	07-14 08:57
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	1	$31	32	0	+32	Yes	+$1	10-28 06:16
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	1	$30	56	0	+56	No	-$30	07-15 13:25
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 26?	1	$30	30	0	+30	Yes	+$0	10-26 08:02
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 29?	3	$28	40	40	+0	No	-$3	10-29 03:33
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on November 3?	1	$23	25	0	+25	No	-$23	11-02 22:04
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	1	$20	51	0	+51	No	-$20	05-30 15:37
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 30?	5	$17	93	0	+93	Yes	+$76	09-30 05:11
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on November 1?	2	$14	20	0	+20	Yes	+$6	10-31 08:11
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 30?	1	$12	20	0	+20	No	-$12	10-30 04:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	2	$12	6	6	+0	Up	+$0	10-22 15:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	2	$12	6	6	+0	Down	+$0	10-22 14:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	2	$11	6	6	+0	Down	+$0	10-22 11:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	Up	+$0	10-24 15:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	Down	+$0	10-20 03:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	Down	+$0	10-24 15:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	Down	+$0	10-21 11:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	Up	+$0	10-20 18:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	Down	+$0	10-24 16:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	Up	+$0	10-24 16:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 22:04:16	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on November 3?	Yes	BUY	25	92¢	$23	0x8cd916…
10-31 08:11:03	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	13	69¢	$9	0xc24308…
10-31 08:11:03	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x678d33…
10-30 04:57:15	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xd3b472…
10-29 03:33:49	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	40	31¢	$12	0x238e5d…
10-29 03:30:58	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	37	38¢	$14	0xaddfc2…
10-29 03:30:55	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xf1af59…
10-28 06:16:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	32	95¢	$31	0x0fae5a…
10-26 08:02:18	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x3d38ac…
10-25 03:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xd73556…
10-25 03:29:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x17007a…
10-25 03:23:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x7f1c15…
10-25 03:18:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xa9a36f…
10-25 03:14:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x1dbdf8…
10-25 03:08:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb8b3fa…
10-25 03:04:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xeee734…
10-25 02:58:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0x830b79…
10-25 02:53:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe77147…
10-25 02:49:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x2842c1…
10-25 02:44:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x9568fb…
10-25 02:38:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x74741b…
10-25 02:33:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x4ea52f…
10-25 02:28:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xede88b…
10-25 02:24:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0xfedd47…
10-25 02:18:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb73f08…
10-25 02:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x9e0f80…
10-25 02:08:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xea5b9c…
10-25 02:04:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x7677b6…
10-25 01:58:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x819d9e…
10-25 01:53:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb6da1e…
10-25 01:48:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xb90c77…
10-25 01:44:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x40a712…
10-25 01:38:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0x74c0ea…
10-25 01:33:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0x5da83b…
10-25 01:28:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xe8ed41…
10-25 01:18:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x182777…
10-25 01:14:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xbe4ddf…
10-25 01:08:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xc29bad…
10-25 01:03:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5a33b8…
10-25 00:59:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0x6214ed…
10-25 00:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0xc43676…
10-25 00:48:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x796ac0…
10-25 00:43:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xff9c4e…
10-25 00:39:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x7edf64…
10-25 00:34:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0x89ec48…
10-25 00:28:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xf18f1f…
10-25 00:23:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0x002f22…
10-25 00:19:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0x9121ac…
10-25 00:13:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0xd48fef…
10-25 00:09:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xf92f82…
10-25 00:03:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3a2da2…
10-24 23:59:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe26564…
10-24 23:54:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0x359102…
10-24 23:48:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0xd07613…
10-24 23:43:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x12830d…
10-24 23:38:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xe76f6e…
10-24 23:33:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x764ec1…
10-24 23:28:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x177d17…
10-24 23:23:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x20f947…
10-24 23:18:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x1fe222…
10-24 23:13:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xec67c7…
10-24 23:08:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xe2cad3…
10-24 23:03:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x7c0c8c…
10-24 22:58:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x9a305f…
10-24 22:53:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x8dc7c2…
10-24 22:48:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0x96d867…
10-24 22:43:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb232e2…
10-24 22:38:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x364204…
10-24 22:33:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xa0d7ae…
10-24 22:28:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x2d2ab5…
10-24 22:24:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x5e59fe…
10-24 22:18:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x823ca4…
10-24 22:13:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x66bfdd…
10-24 22:08:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xb9fb80…
10-24 22:03:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd1fc25…
10-24 21:59:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xaf4306…
10-24 21:53:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xfd5a6a…
10-24 21:49:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xa1eb96…
10-24 21:43:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x4f11da…
10-24 21:38:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x67c24d…
10-24 21:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x22c302…
10-24 21:28:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xe8fd05…
10-24 21:23:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x568ed2…
10-24 21:18:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x6d0918…
10-24 21:14:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x448666…
10-24 21:03:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa0936f…
10-24 20:58:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x3d32ff…
10-24 20:54:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0xc8a9ae…
10-24 20:49:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x3cd65d…
10-24 20:43:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5a0adf…
10-24 20:38:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xa7e390…
10-24 20:34:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0x6de436…
10-24 20:28:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xae6f88…
10-24 20:23:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x6634fb…
10-24 20:18:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x3776cf…
10-24 20:14:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x50783c…
10-24 20:09:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0x0534b5…
10-24 20:03:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xaf1394…
10-24 19:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0x8557eb…
10-24 19:54:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0xe5e6aa…