Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$812

Unrealized P&L

-$22

Hit rate

8.0%

Resolved

1,465

Trades

6,356

lifetime

Volume

$26.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$54

13 positions

First seen

2026-07-12

last 10-29 15:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 104 days

Categories

Other

80% 12% -$712

Politics

16% 22% -$42

Tech

2% 16% -$18

Crypto

1% 14% -$20

Sports

1% 11% -$17

Pop-Culture

0% 5% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 218 trades/day

Open positions (13) Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?	No	+48	$19	95¢	$46	+$26	08-28 01:33
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?	Yes	+48	$30	5¢	$2	-$28	08-28 01:33
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	No	+3	$12	82¢	$2	-$10	09-28 09:21
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+999	$1	0¢	$1	+$0	10-27 11:08
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	Yes	+3	$14	18¢	$1	-$14	09-21 13:11
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	+124	$0	0¢	$0	+$1	10-27 15:53
Will a team from LCP (Asia-Pacific) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	+199	$0	0¢	$0	+$0	10-24 07:09
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	No	+250	$0	0¢	$0	+$0	10-29 11:51
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?	Yes	+46	-$2	0¢	$0	+$2	10-24 04:00
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?	Yes	+203	$0	0¢	$0	$0	10-26 09:40
Will 5 or more Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	+172	$0	0¢	$0	+$0	10-22 15:59
Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	+79	$0	0¢	$0	+$0	10-23 20:51
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+49	-$1	0¢	$0	+$1	10-28 18:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	35	$424	445	439	+6	open	—	09-28 09:21
No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?	36	$309	336	336	+0	Yes	-$12	09-25 11:30
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30?	26	$284	296	256	+40	No	-$20	09-11 19:20
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?	35	$281	317	257	+60	open	—	09-25 15:11
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%?	28	$261	282	282	+0	Yes	-$28	09-28 02:46
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	25	$236	260	260	+0	Yes	-$6	09-21 07:53
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	23	$225	239	239	+0	open	—	09-26 17:52
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	21	$198	210	210	+0	open	—	09-27 01:17
will oregon be ranked 1 during the 2026 27 cfb season 20260803152822085	18	$194	183	183	+0	open	—	08-07 18:03
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between seven and nine nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	18	$193	219	169	+50	No	-$3	08-11 00:48
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 9?	17	$189	188	188	+0	Yes	-$2	08-07 14:51
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	23	$188	216	118	+98	Yes	-$11	08-22 08:21
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?	14	$177	185	145	+40	open	—	09-21 16:33
Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?	19	$174	208	133	+75	Yes	-$4	09-13 08:04
Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	23	$170	174	174	+0	open	—	09-25 20:46
Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?	21	$169	285	49	+235	Yes	-$2	08-18 20:47
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 9?	13	$168	160	160	+0	No	-$2	08-08 12:00
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?	14	$160	194	98	+96	open	—	08-28 01:33
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?	16	$156	211	114	+97	open	—	09-19 07:18
Will fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16?	14	$147	216	83	+133	No	-$10	08-15 16:47
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?	14	$146	145	125	+20	No	-$8	08-19 01:33
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	10	$145	113	113	+0	open	—	09-16 14:24
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $518,000 and $524,000 on September 30?	18	$138	169	113	+56	No	-$2	09-09 17:01
Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.50T and $1.75T at the end of September 2026?	16	$134	131	131	+0	No	-$8	09-19 11:41
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on August 31, 2026?	12	$130	183	95	+88	No	-$6	08-18 12:38
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 12?	11	$129	195	55	+140	Yes	-$1	08-11 14:35
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on September 30, 2026?	10	$119	187	49	+138	No	-$6	08-18 23:17
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	5	$117	93	93	+0	Yes	-$1	09-16 19:00
Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	20	$117	138	108	+30	No	-$2	09-27 07:01
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on September 30, 2026?	13	$114	166	60	+106	No	$0	08-19 08:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 16:48:13	Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	298	0¢	$0	0x60ce25…
10-29 16:22:52	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	299	0¢	$0	0x2a300d…
10-29 16:05:34	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Michigan?	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0xde5183…
10-29 16:05:13	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Michigan?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x04aac6…
10-29 15:46:34	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Michigan?	Yes	BUY	94	0¢	$0	0x26fcac…
10-29 15:44:23	Will VfL Wolfsburg win the 2026-27 DFB-Pokal?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x9eb3cf…
10-29 15:27:17	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	SELL	19	0¢	$0	0x78075b…
10-29 15:26:43	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	BUY	254	0¢	$0	0x50e95f…
10-29 15:26:43	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	BUY	45	0¢	$0	0x2c2aa7…
10-29 15:17:47	Will Meta’s market capitalization be at least $2.25T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0xd09178…
10-29 15:03:46	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 3.25-3.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x21c190…
10-29 15:03:44	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 3.25-3.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x057f6d…
10-29 15:03:43	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 3.25-3.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xf81bde…
10-29 15:03:41	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 3.25-3.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x9d1202…
10-29 15:03:41	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 3.25-3.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x72fc45…
10-29 15:03:41	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 3.25-3.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x16c882…
10-29 14:59:29	Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	0¢	$0	0xa4ab70…
10-29 14:59:20	Will Aurora Win the PGL Masters Bucharest 2026?	Yes	BUY	298	0¢	$0	0x762e47…
10-29 14:40:55	Will LEGION win PARI Universe?	Yes	BUY	298	0¢	$0	0xfd5cde…
10-29 14:30:43	Will Together win less than 7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0x170522…
10-29 14:30:20	Will Together win less than 7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xebe844…
10-29 14:00:52	Will Nvidia have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x6d9cc9…
10-29 14:00:52	Will Nvidia have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x4ef3a2…
10-29 13:54:23	Will Nvidia have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	0¢	$0	0x793fd3…
10-29 13:33:31	Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to at least 5 years in prison?	Yes	BUY	233	0¢	$0	0x03a223…
10-29 13:20:28	Will Otzma win 4-5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	60	0¢	$0	0xbf5d36…
10-29 13:18:56	Will Otzma win 4-5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0x2f6b02…
10-29 12:55:10	Will Bruno Retailleau win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	27	0¢	$0	0xb39853…
10-29 12:55:10	Will Bruno Retailleau win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x40a865…
10-29 12:25:07	Will NYC have between 5.25 and 6.25 inches of precipitation in October?	Yes	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0xdf356b…
10-29 12:18:25	Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $70 end of October?	Yes	BUY	205	0¢	$0	0xa079e3…
10-29 12:04:19	Will J.T. Miller win the 2026-27 Hart Memorial Trophy?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xbe7f5d…
10-29 12:04:19	Will Roman Josi win the 2026-27 Hart Memorial Trophy?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x06fc4b…
10-29 11:51:46	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	No	BUY	250	0¢	$0	0x392331…
10-29 11:37:10	Will Astra Invicta win PARI Universe?	Yes	BUY	248	0¢	$0	0x903818…
10-29 11:36:05	Will VfL Wolfsburg win the 2026-27 DFB-Pokal?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x8ae70c…
10-29 11:36:05	Will VfL Wolfsburg win the 2026-27 DFB-Pokal?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x757e29…
10-29 11:21:56	Paris curfew effectively lifted by November 30?	No	BUY	299	0¢	$0	0xf0bc86…
10-29 11:00:05	Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	0¢	$0	0x91e462…
10-29 10:58:26	Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x6da9b0…
10-29 10:58:05	Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x893db6…
10-29 10:55:52	Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x641e5e…
10-29 10:00:14	Will FUT Win the PGL Masters Bucharest 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$0	0xb0d1ed…
10-29 09:51:20	Will Aryna Sabalenka be Number 1 on the End of Year WTA Rankings	Yes	BUY	249	0¢	$0	0xf519d5…
10-29 09:03:43	Will Viktor Orbán be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	Yes	SELL	39	2¢	$1	0xb74594…
10-29 09:03:04	Will Viktor Orbán be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	Yes	SELL	39	2¢	$1	0x19b8d0…
10-29 09:01:08	Will Nemiga Win the PGL Masters Bucharest 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	3¢	$0	0x2179a4…
10-29 07:59:49	Will Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31?	Yes	BUY	249	0¢	$0	0x650df8…
10-29 07:47:40	Will Ra'am win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0xf69b74…
10-29 07:45:23	Will Ra'am win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	104	0¢	$0	0x292b42…
10-29 07:43:43	Will Ra'am win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	111	0¢	$1	0x5c65ce…
10-29 06:15:28	Will Together win less than 7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	65	0¢	$0	0x3ac081…
10-29 05:38:17	Will The Joint List win 5.5-6.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	17	0¢	$0	0x9b5a56…
10-29 04:22:58	Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	249	0¢	$0	0x6d9f6e…
10-29 04:22:10	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x02123f…
10-29 04:17:04	Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $70 end of October?	Yes	BUY	38	0¢	$0	0x02a8e9…
10-29 04:10:01	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x5114a9…
10-29 04:09:13	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x907fa4…
10-29 03:19:41	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$0	0xd52e36…
10-29 03:13:43	Will there be 3+ walk-offs during the 2026 MLB Postseason?	Yes	BUY	249	0¢	$0	0x79d53d…
10-29 03:06:29	MLB 2026: World Series Winning League	American League	BUY	249	0¢	$0	0x54c987…
10-29 02:10:50	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x680d4d…
10-29 02:10:43	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xd9d78a…
10-29 02:10:43	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xd4e1f3…
10-29 02:10:43	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0xa64bd8…
10-29 02:10:43	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x6a1eeb…
10-29 02:10:10	Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$0	0x154f5a…
10-29 01:53:41	Will Anthropic IPO on November 13, 2026 or earlier?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x746aaf…
10-29 01:52:29	Will Crimson Desert win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0xffc19a…
10-29 01:45:37	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 4.25% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	60	0¢	$0	0xc1a36a…
10-29 01:45:37	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 4.25% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	91	0¢	$0	0xbca982…
10-29 01:45:37	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 4.25% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x4f352c…
10-29 00:33:23	Will White House post 160-179 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	0¢	$0	0x49ea90…
10-28 23:42:10	Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $900B and $1.00T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x1de2c7…
10-28 23:42:08	Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $900B and $1.00T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	0¢	$0	0x09ddfd…
10-28 23:36:43	Will GamerLegion win PARI Universe?	Yes	SELL	6	3¢	$0	0x7cc953…
10-28 23:00:40	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 3.75-4.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0x855eb9…
10-28 23:00:16	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 3.75-4.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0xdf7618…
10-28 22:55:35	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	124	0¢	$0	0xe8f01a…
10-28 22:38:28	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 3.75-4.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x8e93dc…
10-28 22:03:55	Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	298	0¢	$0	0xe7d51c…
10-28 21:33:34	Will StepFun be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	93	0¢	$0	0xe957f7…
10-28 21:16:50	Will The Joint List win 5.5-6.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	27	0¢	$0	0x092fa5…
10-28 21:15:52	Will The Joint List win 5.5-6.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x99e49b…
10-28 21:14:08	Will SpaceXAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	0¢	$0	0x3dd718…
10-28 21:14:08	Will SpaceXAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	0¢	$0	0x00802a…
10-28 21:10:56	Will VfL Wolfsburg win the 2026-27 DFB-Pokal?	Yes	SELL	46	1¢	$0	0x1aece6…
10-28 21:06:35	Will VfL Wolfsburg win the 2026-27 DFB-Pokal?	Yes	SELL	64	1¢	$1	0x9875ce…
10-28 20:58:31	Will Otzma win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	60	0¢	$0	0xdb4155…
10-28 20:28:41	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	250	0¢	$0	0x2aa58a…
10-28 20:15:08	Will GamerLegion win PARI Universe?	Yes	SELL	12	1¢	$0	0xf6770c…
10-28 19:11:55	Will VfL Wolfsburg win the 2026-27 DFB-Pokal?	Yes	BUY	129	0¢	$0	0xd4791b…
10-28 19:05:47	Will Nemiga Win the PGL Masters Bucharest 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	2¢	$0	0xd659d9…
10-28 18:40:22	Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	3¢	$0	0x362879…
10-28 18:37:37	Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	249	0¢	$0	0x908585…
10-28 18:29:37	Will Mistral have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	0¢	$0	0x6a63ec…
10-28 18:25:19	Will GamerLegion win PARI Universe?	Yes	SELL	24	0¢	$0	0x757caf…
10-28 18:16:17	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x6bc180…
10-28 18:02:25	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	249	0¢	$0	0x080c74…
10-28 18:00:23	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	BUY	241	0¢	$0	0xe5541f…