Silky-Frog — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$23

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$13.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$165

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-15

last 07-19 11:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

64% — —

Politics

28% 100% +$23

Tech

5% — —

Sports

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	2	$1.5K	755	755	+0	open	—	04-30 12:27
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	4	$1.4K	729	729	+0	open	—	05-25 12:21
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	2	$1.0K	532	532	+0	open	—	05-24 11:48
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$1.0K	1,040	0	+1,040	open	—	03-23 12:47
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 340 359	2	$911	934	0	+934	open	—	04-17 00:44
will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	4	$771	425	425	+0	open	—	06-25 11:46
elon musk of tweets april 2 april 4 0 39	2	$463	243	242	+0	open	—	04-02 11:52
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	2	$425	240	240	+0	open	—	04-03 01:11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	2	$416	218	217	+1	open	—	04-26 03:43
Iran leadership change by May 31?	1	$400	410	0	+410	open	—	05-25 12:31
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	1	$349	388	0	+388	open	—	04-01 08:38
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	3	$335	265	116	+148	open	—	04-14 12:08
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$264	288	0	+288	open	—	04-26 03:41
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 360 379	2	$222	116	115	+0	open	—	04-14 12:05
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	1	$221	227	0	+227	open	—	04-28 13:13
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	1	$216	221	0	+221	open	—	04-26 03:45
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$214	116	116	+0	open	—	03-26 13:38
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	2	$212	112	112	+0	open	—	07-04 11:30
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	2	$210	229	0	+229	open	—	05-11 11:55
will rachida dati win the paris mayor election	1	$200	244	0	+244	open	—	03-22 12:53
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	1	$200	211	0	+211	open	—	06-10 11:48
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 460 479	1	$200	214	0	+214	open	—	03-22 12:57
will connecticut win the 2026 ncaa tournament	2	$199	115	115	+0	open	—	04-03 01:10
Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?	2	$135	68	68	+0	open	—	05-01 07:19
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 360 379	1	$127	133	0	+133	open	—	04-02 11:58
will iran strike israel on march 10	2	$119	63	63	+0	open	—	03-17 02:03
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 320 339	1	$114	120	0	+120	open	—	04-06 11:59
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	2	$112	122	0	+122	open	—	03-25 12:53
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	1	$110	122	0	+122	open	—	05-26 12:27
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 31	1	$107	115	0	+115	open	—	03-26 13:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-19 11:30:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x258166…
07-12 11:37:52	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x52963c…
07-04 11:30:17	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	112	100¢	$112	0xc8115d…
07-04 01:13:29	will abigail anderson be one of taylor swifts bridesmaids	Yes	SELL	84	2¢	$2	0xa4e930…
07-03 00:08:34	nathans famous hot dog eating contest new world record 20260626152407219	No	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x51202a…
07-01 12:35:46	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x21c505…
07-01 12:29:19	will abigail anderson be one of taylor swifts bridesmaids	Yes	BUY	84	83¢	$70	0xc89224…
06-25 11:46:40	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	316	84¢	$266	0xfa3aca…
06-24 12:06:58	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	316	95¢	$300	0x254cc4…
06-24 03:45:25	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	109	96¢	$104	0x66b77d…
06-22 07:38:40	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x208c10…
06-10 11:55:04	spacex ipo closing share price updown on first day 20260607181533420	Up	BUY	38	68¢	$26	0xba680d…
06-10 11:48:15	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	Yes	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0x9145ed…
05-26 12:27:19	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	122	90¢	$110	0x74ce9b…
05-25 12:31:53	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	410	97¢	$400	0x30426a…
05-25 12:21:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	729	98¢	$713	0x3624b8…
05-25 03:56:27	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	140	97¢	$136	0xf7b2db…
05-24 11:52:00	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	568	93¢	$528	0x546810…
05-24 11:48:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	SELL	532	100¢	$529	0x38fcc4…
05-22 11:51:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x94d0bd…
05-11 11:55:45	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	101	94¢	$95	0x5770db…
05-07 12:33:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	128	90¢	$115	0x515f3e…
05-03 02:22:56	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0x0dd157…
05-01 12:10:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	BUY	532	94¢	$500	0x0c05e1…
05-01 12:04:20	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0xef4848…
05-01 07:19:00	Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	68	100¢	$68	0x374051…
04-30 12:27:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	755	100¢	$754	0x2ddf5d…
04-28 13:13:26	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	227	98¢	$221	0x41f8c4…
04-26 03:45:48	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	221	97¢	$216	0x8f389e…
04-26 03:43:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	SELL	217	99¢	$216	0xbbbfe0…
04-26 03:41:36	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	180	91¢	$164	0x78a2cf…
04-24 12:10:12	Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	68	98¢	$67	0xf9856b…
04-18 01:31:28	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	755	97¢	$733	0x2c8ac8…
04-17 00:44:12	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 340 359	No	BUY	435	98¢	$425	0xa2fe24…
04-17 00:24:44	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 340 359	No	BUY	499	98¢	$487	0xce5618…
04-17 00:23:46	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	67	75¢	$50	0xcd5bcf…
04-14 12:08:27	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	BUY	148	96¢	$142	0x71d799…
04-14 12:05:23	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$27	0x1020c4…
04-14 12:05:15	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 360 379	No	SELL	115	100¢	$115	0xdffc04…
04-13 12:33:35	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 360 379	No	BUY	116	92¢	$107	0x3e626c…
04-12 01:31:01	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	SELL	116	80¢	$93	0x155581…
04-11 12:20:11	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	28	73¢	$20	0xc6a47d…
04-11 07:34:25	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0x457471…
04-06 11:59:37	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 320 339	No	BUY	120	95¢	$114	0xd9b721…
04-03 01:19:59	any of the stolen kitkats recovered by april 5	No	BUY	114	90¢	$103	0x044d3a…
04-03 01:13:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	BUY	218	92¢	$200	0x1b65ba…
04-03 01:11:01	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	SELL	240	85¢	$204	0x3359fd…
04-03 01:10:15	will connecticut win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	SELL	115	86¢	$99	0x23c99a…
04-02 11:58:01	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 360 379	No	BUY	133	95¢	$127	0xdca51f…
04-02 11:53:33	will connecticut win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0xf2eec5…
04-02 11:52:33	elon musk of tweets april 2 april 4 0 39	No	SELL	242	94¢	$228	0xb477f9…
04-01 12:08:23	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	BUY	240	92¢	$221	0x58088e…
04-01 08:38:09	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	No	BUY	388	90¢	$349	0x7a4a25…
04-01 08:19:37	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0xc8818c…
04-01 08:12:05	elon musk of tweets april 2 april 4 0 39	No	BUY	243	97¢	$235	0x31cfdc…
03-26 13:39:23	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 31	No	BUY	115	93¢	$107	0xa3ec38…
03-26 13:38:39	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	116	92¢	$107	0x82f6e8…
03-26 13:22:29	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	116	93¢	$107	0x4fbcc3…
03-25 12:53:59	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	No	BUY	61	92¢	$56	0x4494a7…
03-25 12:53:15	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	No	BUY	61	92¢	$56	0xa75249…
03-23 12:47:35	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	1,040	98¢	$1,024	0xcd4b90…
03-22 12:57:17	elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 460 479	No	BUY	214	94¢	$200	0x64006a…
03-22 12:53:17	will rachida dati win the paris mayor election	No	BUY	244	82¢	$200	0x7ab934…
03-22 12:33:19	will jessica pegula win the 2026 womens singles tournament at the miami open	No	BUY	106	95¢	$100	0x579618…
03-18 11:48:43	will mrbeast hit 475 million subscribers by march 31 387 656 755 785	No	BUY	74	90¢	$67	0x5b3fe7…
03-17 02:09:49	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 300 319	No	BUY	67	94¢	$63	0x65554b…
03-17 02:03:49	will iran strike israel on march 10	Yes	SELL	63	100¢	$63	0x8e0faa…
03-16 12:53:01	will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of march 644 777 281 682 546 253	No	BUY	99	86¢	$85	0x40ba5d…
03-09 11:50:37	will iran strike israel on march 10	Yes	BUY	63	89¢	$56	0x201dfd…
03-05 07:37:13	will nepali congress win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election	No	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0xeee620…
03-01 11:33:23	will us or israel strike iran on march 3 2026	Yes	BUY	51	93¢	$47	0x454ee8…
02-27 12:31:57	will mrbeasts million dollar puzzle be solved by february 28	No	BUY	47	94¢	$45	0x85e1c9…
02-27 12:24:57	will the devil is busy win best documentary short film at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	85	90¢	$77	0xe2f48b…
02-23 12:15:56	elon musk of tweets february 23 february 25 140 164	No	BUY	77	95¢	$73	0x2a1f18…
02-10 12:21:27	will karl anthony towns win the 2026 nba all star game mvp 935	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0xd431bd…
02-10 12:09:19	will karl anthony towns win the 2026 nba all star game mvp 935	No	BUY	56	96¢	$54	0x0e3a54…
02-08 12:52:07	will germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	No	BUY	45	96¢	$43	0x201231…
02-04 12:41:48	will giannis antetokounmpo be traded to chicago bulls	No	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0xbfd0eb…
01-28 03:34:39	will pheu thai party pt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	No	BUY	17	96¢	$16	0x5aee7b…
01-25 07:11:46	will the us next strike iran on january 31 2026 et 836	No	BUY	35	95¢	$33	0x2c834d…
01-20 10:42:42	will the denver broncos win super bowl 2026	No	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0x87a267…
01-19 12:27:04	us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x940d4f…
01-16 11:49:56	us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x3438a8…
01-15 13:04:00	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	No	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xdf8f31…