Basic-Descent — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$144

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

63.4%

Resolved

Trades

191

lifetime

Volume

$1.46K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$11

1 position

First seen

2026-04-21

last 06-07 17:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 25 days

Categories

Politics

84% 42% -$102

Other

13% 32% -$39

Tech

2% 100% +$2

Crypto

0% 0% -$3

Sports

0% 33% -$2

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-07).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes		-20	-$10	52¢	$-11	-$1	05-04 19:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	4	$158	109	109	+0	No	+$30	05-29 21:01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	4	$129	92	92	+0	No	+$9	04-29 20:40
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	2	$88	188	0	+188	No	-$88	06-02 22:07
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	6	$88	111	111	+0	No	-$11	05-01 20:53
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	2	$81	61	61	+0	No	+$27	06-02 21:54
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	2	$69	43	43	+0	No	+$9	04-23 17:53
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	9	$68	6,823	58	+6,765	No	+$38	04-27 05:50
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	4	$60	36	36	+0	No	+$5	04-25 17:09
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	3	$42	38	38	+0	No	+$2	05-01 20:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$40	25	25	+0	No	+$4	05-04 20:03
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	2	$36	38	38	+0	Yes	-$11	06-02 21:53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$35	26	26	+0	Yes	+$3	06-04 20:23
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	2	$34	45	45	+0	No	-$6	05-31 12:41
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	2	$32	36	36	+0	Yes	-$8	06-02 21:53
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	2	$29	19	19	+0	No	+$3	05-11 20:38
Will Trump say "Percent" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1?	2	$28	71	0	+71	Yes	-$28	05-01 20:57
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	2	$25	64	0	+64	Yes	-$25	05-12 21:11
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit?	5	$25	23	23	+0	No	+$11	04-29 01:05
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	2	$24	14	14	+0	Yes	+$2	05-09 20:02
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	2	$22	13	13	+0	No	+$2	04-23 17:53
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	4	$21	431	0	+431	No	-$21	05-01 21:09
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	2	$20	22	22	+0	Yes	$0	05-31 12:43
Will Trump say "Save America" at The Villages on May 1?	2	$15	17	17	+0	Yes	+$5	05-01 21:08
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	2	$14	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	04-24 20:24
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	4	$12	7	7	+0	No	+$0	04-23 13:18
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	4	$10	6	6	+0	No	+$0	04-23 13:18
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	4	$10	6	6	+0	No	+$0	04-23 17:33
James Comey arrested by April 29?	2	$10	9	9	+0	Yes	+$4	04-29 04:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$10	8	8	+0	No	+$0	04-24 18:27
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	1	$10	15	0	+15	Yes	-$10	04-25 16:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 17:41:24	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x77e765…
06-07 17:19:21	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	64	8¢	$5	0x7ac12e…
06-04 21:06:10	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x5e4042…
06-04 20:51:01	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	64	8¢	$5	0x7c0186…
06-04 20:29:49	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	No	BUY	2,500	0¢	$5	0x09f102…
06-04 20:23:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	26	75¢	$19	0xd7728b…
06-02 22:07:56	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	155	50¢	$77	0xc71f7b…
06-02 21:54:55	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	SELL	61	88¢	$54	0x7a919d…
06-02 21:53:50	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	SELL	36	33¢	$12	0x4ac9b3…
06-02 21:53:49	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	SELL	38	33¢	$12	0x6208c0…
05-31 12:44:48	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	38	63¢	$24	0x3049a5…
05-31 12:43:05	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	22	43¢	$10	0x230afd…
05-31 12:41:57	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	SELL	45	32¢	$14	0x48fae5…
05-29 21:20:58	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	BUY	61	44¢	$27	0x150ffa…
05-29 21:14:12	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	45	44¢	$20	0x430367…
05-29 21:10:03	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0xf2d5af…
05-29 21:01:51	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	73	93¢	$68	0xa2d5f5…
05-12 21:11:50	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	40¢	$16	0x82280b…
05-12 21:04:15	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	22	75¢	$16	0xfe6420…
05-11 23:15:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	26	62¢	$16	0xa9ff2a…
05-11 20:38:49	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	SELL	19	85¢	$16	0x78d6ed…
05-09 20:22:33	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	19	70¢	$13	0x672f16…
05-09 20:02:06	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	SELL	14	89¢	$13	0x153527…
05-04 21:55:46	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	14	77¢	$11	0x0930ff…
05-04 20:23:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x54a47d…
05-04 20:03:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	25	86¢	$22	0xb37b5d…
05-04 19:49:22	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	34¢	$11	0x822ecc…
05-04 19:49:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	68¢	$10	0x35561d…
05-04 19:35:20	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	24	38¢	$9	0x4e83c1…
05-04 19:24:50	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	49¢	$10	0xd3c543…
05-01 21:09:08	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	272	4¢	$10	0xe79016…
05-01 21:08:30	Will Trump say "Save America" at The Villages on May 1?	No	SELL	17	62¢	$10	0x083d3f…
05-01 20:57:10	Will Trump say "Percent" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	26	51¢	$13	0xbeb0ae…
05-01 20:54:20	Will Trump say "Percent" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	45	33¢	$15	0xcc8fb8…
05-01 20:53:56	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	41	70¢	$28	0x293fdb…
05-01 20:42:28	Will Trump say "Stock market" or "401(k)" at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0xb320bf…
05-01 20:35:24	Will Trump say "Tariff" at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x1609c7…
05-01 20:34:12	Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	8	30¢	$2	0x362b47…
05-01 20:31:22	Will Trump say "Save America" at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xd373ee…
05-01 20:30:18	Will Trump say "Stock market" or "401(k)" at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x4af8ee…
05-01 20:29:48	Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xad2a89…
05-01 20:29:22	Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xc68a3a…
05-01 20:28:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	12	51¢	$6	0x7a044b…
05-01 20:27:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	38	59¢	$22	0xf70c4a…
05-01 18:28:08	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	3¢	$4	0x3ff92b…
05-01 18:27:36	Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	43¢	$3	0xb564fa…
05-01 18:26:58	James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x327188…
04-30 21:26:34	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x25faee…
04-30 21:08:46	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	15	64¢	$10	0x886bb2…
04-30 13:18:38	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on April 30?	Yes	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xedeb74…
04-30 13:17:26	Will Trump say "Ballroom" during King Charles visit?	No	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0xf1e3e4…
04-30 06:34:40	Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	No	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0xd5654e…
04-30 06:34:32	Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	No	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x022635…
04-29 22:16:10	Will Trump say "Radical Left" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	No	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x1b9115…
04-29 22:07:42	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0x152f54…
04-29 21:36:00	Will Powell say "Successor" during April press conference?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xd0bb71…
04-29 20:43:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	109	59¢	$64	0xe767a5…
04-29 20:40:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	71	91¢	$65	0x17ab0a…
04-29 19:48:54	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x84349c…
04-29 19:45:58	Will Trump say "Trump" during King Charles visit?	No	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0xf84301…
04-29 17:42:14	Will Powell say "Data Center" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xd6e045…
04-29 17:41:46	Will Powell say "Oil" during April press conference?	No	SELL	17	4¢	$1	0x0eb512…
04-29 17:38:30	Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x5a173e…
04-29 17:36:22	Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during April press conference?	No	SELL	3	34¢	$1	0x11f15d…
04-29 17:31:58	Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xf05cef…
04-29 17:27:22	Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press conference?	No	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x1e2986…
04-29 17:26:16	Will Powell say "Oil" during April press conference?	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x905669…
04-29 17:25:46	Will Powell say "Integrity" during April press conference?	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x93add0…
04-29 17:25:26	Will Powell say "Successor" during April press conference?	No	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x206eb3…
04-29 17:25:14	Will Powell say "Job" 15+ times during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xee8725…
04-29 17:24:38	Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xa701b1…
04-29 17:21:40	Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference?	No	SELL	8	22¢	$2	0x07ffb1…
04-29 16:36:22	Will Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference?	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x30ef4f…
04-29 16:31:18	Will Powell say "Simulation" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x7720b6…
04-29 16:31:10	Will Powell say "Shut down" or "Shutdown" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x9e40c5…
04-29 16:30:58	Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during April press conference?	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x0607e0…
04-29 16:29:58	Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x7f0d0f…
04-29 16:29:02	Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference?	No	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x901555…
04-29 16:09:30	Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit?	No	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0x8fbd34…
04-29 15:50:32	Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x18af52…
04-29 08:14:48	Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	No	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x3e8de5…
04-29 05:02:36	James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x13ffaf…
04-29 04:56:02	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x65121d…
04-29 04:43:14	James Comey arrested by April 29?	No	SELL	9	85¢	$7	0x6a9ac2…
04-29 01:05:48	Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit?	No	SELL	15	90¢	$13	0x1e0091…
04-28 22:27:44	James Comey arrested by April 29?	No	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x0cc9fa…
04-28 19:47:20	Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit?	No	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x773abe…
04-28 19:36:30	Will King Charles say "Special Relationship" during the joint meeting of Congress?	No	SELL	2	80¢	$2	0x3a83aa…
04-28 19:22:16	Will King Charles say "250" or "250th" during the joint meeting of Congress?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb9b105…
04-28 19:19:22	Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit?	No	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xa798e2…
04-28 16:59:26	Will Trump say "Free World" during King Charles visit?	No	SELL	4	0¢	$0	0x08eb8c…
04-28 16:58:06	Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in April?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xe3c915…
04-28 16:48:30	Will Trump say "Winston" or "Churchill" during King Charles visit?	No	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xf85c26…
04-28 16:41:44	Will Trump say "King" during King Charles visit?	No	SELL	17	0¢	$0	0xd4ee39…
04-28 16:41:30	Will Trump say "Elizabeth" during King Charles visit?	No	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0x38f360…
04-28 16:25:40	Will Trump say "Hottest" during King Charles visit?	No	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0xc7279b…
04-28 16:25:26	Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit?	No	SELL	8	52¢	$4	0xcdcd20…
04-28 16:17:50	Will Trump say "Ballroom" during King Charles visit?	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xb3a499…
04-28 16:05:32	Will King Charles say "Ukraine" during the joint meeting of Congress?	No	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x4030c2…
04-28 16:05:10	Will King Charles say "Special Relationship" during the joint meeting of Congress?	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x67e94f…