Acrobatic-Vampire — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

34.0%

Resolved

Trades

330

lifetime

Volume

$14.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$43

Open exposure

$102

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-16 13:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

59% 50% +$5

Other

25% — —

Sports

16% 0% $-10

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No		+106	$100	96¢	$102	+$2	06-16 13:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	9	$2.0K	1,501	1,501	+0	open	—	03-25 20:47
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	6	$821	519	519	+0	open	—	03-22 02:54
will the 2026 bad bunny super bowl halftime show video get between 75m and 100m views in its first 7 days	11	$629	432	432	+0	open	—	02-15 11:20
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	6	$502	480	480	+0	open	—	03-25 20:32
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 31 483 852 436 833 347 948	5	$458	385	385	+0	open	—	03-06 14:38
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$433	253	253	+0	open	—	04-29 16:09
will the 2026 bad bunny super bowl halftime show video get between 50m and 75m views in its first 7 days	3	$404	204	204	+0	open	—	02-12 04:21
will the 2026 bad bunny super bowl halftime show video get between 100m and 125m views in its first 7 days	13	$360	467	467	+0	open	—	02-15 11:21
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	4	$359	249	249	+0	open	—	05-18 14:37
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by january 31 859 245	4	$293	184	184	+0	open	—	01-25 20:23
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 15 153 144 999 648 116 955 829 149	4	$274	251	251	+0	open	—	03-04 18:12
will donald trump announce a new nominee for chair of the federal reserve by january 31 2026 849 849 957 245	6	$228	235	235	+0	open	—	01-27 19:14
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	6	$220	183	183	+0	open	—	03-08 18:42
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	2	$215	128	128	+0	open	—	06-13 14:21
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	2	$207	110	110	+0	open	—	05-18 13:15
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	2	$204	160	160	+0	open	—	04-18 16:08
will the supreme court rule on trumps tarriffs by january 31	2	$202	106	106	+0	open	—	01-21 17:31
us x iran ceasefire by march 2	2	$201	103	103	+0	open	—	03-01 20:54
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	2	$200	122	122	+0	open	—	06-13 14:21
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	1	$198	0	200	-200	Yes	$-2	05-09 11:20
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	3	$183	192	192	+0	open	—	03-02 23:37
will the dhs shutdown end after march 31 2026	5	$177	185	185	+0	open	—	03-21 11:49
James Comey arrested by May 15?	4	$149	83	83	+0	open	—	04-29 13:56
will heather mcpherson win the canadian ndp leadership election	2	$139	425	425	+0	open	—	03-14 00:51
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June?	2	$128	101	101	+0	open	—	06-03 15:12
will canada win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	5	$127	152	122	+31	open	—	02-22 15:03
nhl nyi mon 2026 02 26	5	$123	95	76	+18	open	—	02-27 02:45
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	3	$114	69	69	+0	open	—	05-12 17:56
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	2	$113	118	118	+0	open	—	06-03 00:45
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	3	$113	142	53	+89	open	—	02-26 16:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-16 13:49:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	106	95¢	$100	0xeb4818…
06-13 14:21:57	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	SELL	128	90¢	$115	0x0cdb3b…
06-13 14:21:46	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	SELL	122	82¢	$100	0x84e126…
06-13 12:16:39	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0x86bb3f…
06-13 12:16:30	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0x642b6a…
06-05 01:11:13	graham platner drops out before maine senate dem primary	No	SELL	50	97¢	$49	0xbe5183…
06-04 20:20:57	graham platner drops out before maine senate dem primary	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x56dd4c…
06-03 15:12:48	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June?	Yes	SELL	101	77¢	$78	0xaa0a67…
06-03 00:45:43	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	Yes	SELL	118	53¢	$63	0x2147b3…
06-01 01:12:47	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June?	Yes	BUY	101	50¢	$50	0x7e05d0…
06-01 01:12:14	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	42¢	$50	0xd9d6a3…
05-18 14:37:20	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	143	91¢	$130	0xa760d6…
05-18 13:15:19	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	SELL	110	98¢	$107	0xcdb68a…
05-17 18:33:55	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0x2b7652…
05-17 18:33:39	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0xd432ba…
05-13 19:27:55	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	136	23¢	$31	0x315f7a…
05-12 21:01:44	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	SELL	18	55¢	$10	0xc99e5c…
05-12 20:54:25	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	29¢	$20	0x81856b…
05-12 17:57:12	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	106	74¢	$79	0xd909de…
05-12 17:56:39	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	69	93¢	$64	0xde73bb…
05-12 02:51:15	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	41	72¢	$30	0x80b766…
05-12 02:49:16	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0xf539ff…
05-12 02:49:02	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	28	72¢	$20	0x752519…
05-10 12:18:29	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x18546b…
05-10 12:18:20	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	30¢	$20	0x4052ee…
05-09 17:14:18	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x2c7801…
05-09 11:20:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	99¢	$198	0x9a77de…
05-08 12:12:03	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	SELL	62	93¢	$57	0x2f8fed…
05-08 02:36:53	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0xcde22a…
05-06 23:07:48	Canadiens vs. Sabres	Canadiens	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xde5c71…
04-29 16:09:20	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	253	92¢	$233	0xe9cf42…
04-29 16:08:32	James Comey arrested by April 29?	Yes	SELL	31	78¢	$24	0xe1cb8b…
04-29 13:56:42	James Comey arrested by May 15?	Yes	SELL	83	95¢	$79	0xab7bc0…
04-29 12:41:22	James Comey arrested by April 29?	Yes	BUY	31	66¢	$20	0xf24551…
04-29 12:40:44	James Comey arrested by May 15?	Yes	BUY	36	84¢	$30	0x09e78c…
04-29 04:15:50	James Comey arrested by April 28?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0x695342…
04-29 00:53:44	James Comey arrested by May 15?	Yes	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0x33a739…
04-29 00:47:06	James Comey arrested by May 15?	Yes	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0x17c838…
04-29 00:37:40	James Comey arrested by April 28?	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x231d24…
04-24 18:55:22	Lightning vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0x2ca169…
04-21 11:01:56	Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?	No	BUY	25	82¢	$20	0xbcf403…
04-20 03:29:34	Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	SELL	206	9¢	$18	0xe9dda1…
04-19 22:28:24	nhl mon tb 2026 04 19	Canadiens	SELL	13	54¢	$7	0x7900ca…
04-19 22:04:24	nhl mon tb 2026 04 19	Canadiens	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x0bfb1b…
04-19 02:50:18	Kash Patel out by April 30?	No	SELL	91	62¢	$57	0x725b6f…
04-19 02:14:24	Kash Patel out by April 30?	No	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0xd78833…
04-18 23:45:00	Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	SELL	233	7¢	$15	0x005785…
04-18 23:44:12	Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	SELL	240	24¢	$59	0xd0d4a8…
04-18 16:08:06	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	160	65¢	$104	0x6b685e…
04-16 20:22:26	Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?	Yes	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0x8b0c0a…
04-16 20:18:20	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	160	62¢	$100	0x028728…
04-16 20:11:46	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	253	79¢	$200	0xce01a6…
04-14 02:26:19	will tatiana auguste win the by election for the seat of terrebone in the house of commons of canada	No	BUY	80	25¢	$20	0xb2d6ef…
04-14 01:35:27	will nathalie sinclair desgagn win the by election for the seat of terrebone in the house of commons of canada	Yes	BUY	81	62¢	$50	0xe8ff49…
04-13 14:05:11	will tatiana auguste win the by election for the seat of terrebone in the house of commons of canada	No	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x9d9f14…
04-11 19:44:49	Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	BUY	196	5¢	$10	0x0ffe75…
04-11 19:44:41	Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	BUY	206	5¢	$10	0xde37db…
04-11 18:08:49	Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	SELL	194	15¢	$30	0x05a994…
04-11 03:30:21	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	62	70¢	$44	0xe6c7ac…
04-11 03:30:11	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	35	62¢	$22	0x9593c9…
04-11 03:30:01	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	45	31¢	$14	0x062a91…
04-10 18:12:53	Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	No	SELL	55	44¢	$24	0xdf78a6…
04-10 16:25:27	Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	No	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0x58b05f…
04-10 16:23:53	Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	No	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0x8c8135…
04-10 16:23:49	Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	No	BUY	12	34¢	$4	0x3ca5fe…
04-10 16:23:19	Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	No	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x4f07d1…
04-10 15:45:49	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	62	64¢	$40	0x9dfd3a…
04-10 15:45:19	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0x62eed5…
04-10 15:45:05	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0xe02955…
04-08 16:44:53	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	104	17¢	$18	0x72f14c…
04-08 16:44:25	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	34	43¢	$14	0xb1ae5a…
04-06 22:38:07	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0x125239…
04-06 22:37:23	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	105	19¢	$20	0xb475f0…
04-06 21:30:47	Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	48	48¢	$23	0x632807…
04-04 23:12:25	Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	BUY	160	19¢	$31	0x15cb31…
04-04 19:32:49	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	100	17¢	$17	0x5f7fb8…
04-04 14:18:59	Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	22¢	$3	0xb1abf0…
04-04 14:18:59	Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x979ca5…
04-04 14:18:59	Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	22¢	$3	0x454f63…
04-04 14:18:59	Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x08fd20…
04-04 11:34:05	will nathalie sinclair desgagn win the by election for the seat of terrebone in the house of commons of canada	Yes	BUY	24	40¢	$10	0xa513d2…
04-04 02:28:01	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0xc4891d…
03-27 20:13:09	miguel daz canel out as leader of cuba by march 31 971 121	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xfdcc4e…
03-25 20:47:15	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	161	69¢	$111	0xf92965…
03-25 20:32:23	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	38	85¢	$32	0xf425b8…
03-24 23:02:47	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	38	80¢	$30	0x51e74c…
03-23 20:12:23	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0x009fe4…
03-22 12:26:23	Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	BUY	233	4¢	$10	0xd2ef73…
03-22 02:54:43	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	670	70¢	$469	0xc832d4…
03-22 02:54:29	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	260	81¢	$210	0xd4013b…
03-22 02:51:25	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	670	70¢	$469	0xc58ad9…
03-22 02:51:11	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	260	81¢	$210	0x91ad5d…
03-21 13:20:03	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	758	66¢	$500	0x81310e…
03-21 11:49:29	will the dhs shutdown end after march 31 2026	No	SELL	70	67¢	$47	0x9faec8…
03-21 01:14:31	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0x76e1cb…
03-21 01:14:23	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0xb907b4…
03-20 12:51:51	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0x0227a3…
03-20 12:51:43	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0x290664…
03-20 12:49:25	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0xc031e3…
03-20 12:49:17	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0xa718bc…