Ugly-Forest — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$710

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

57.8%

Resolved

396

Trades

963

lifetime

Volume

$6.11K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$10

4 positions

First seen

2026-03-05

last 10-23 21:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 85 days

Categories

Other

47% 55% -$638

Politics

37% 52% -$49

Crypto

8% 57% -$17

Tech

5% 43% -$19

Pop-Culture

3% 100% +$11

Sports

0% 71% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	-5	-$3	78¢	$-4	-$1	04-29 20:47
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	-3	-$3	100¢	$-3	$0	10-23 21:30
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	-13	-$3	18¢	$-2	+$1	04-28 14:02
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Yes	+8	$6	6¢	$0	-$5	05-20 15:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will big ai be out as 1 free app in the us apple store by march 8	5	$391	940	0	+940	Yes	-$391	03-07 20:16
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?	2	$202	119	119	+0	Yes	+$11	04-17 17:13
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	11	$198	139	139	+0	Yes	+$9	04-12 19:29
will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	8	$188	132	132	+0	No	-$16	03-22 21:51
will claude be out as the 1 free app in the us apple store by march 10 328	6	$158	159	159	+0	Yes	-$22	03-07 13:12
will turnout in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary elections be between 65 and 70	12	$146	411	32	+379	No	-$137	03-28 14:54
will tisza win at least 130 seats	5	$145	81	81	+0	Yes	+$7	04-13 05:44
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?	2	$140	73	73	+0	open	—	09-05 18:45
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	12	$122	95	95	+0	Yes	+$0	04-12 15:36
will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	6	$119	76	76	+0	Yes	-$1	03-21 13:23
will big ai be out as 1 free app in the us apple store by march 9	3	$105	179	0	+179	Yes	-$105	03-07 14:19
left wing wave in french mayoral elections	5	$90	55	55	+0	Yes	-$6	03-21 12:39
will fidesz kdnp win at least 60 seats	7	$83	55	55	+0	No	+$1	04-12 11:25
will tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	5	$81	44	44	+0	Yes	+$5	04-12 19:29
will claude by anthropic be 1 free app in the us apple app store on march 10	4	$80	53	53	+0	No	$0	03-07 12:05
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	7	$71	87	86	+0	Yes	+$2	03-07 14:09
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?	4	$70	52	26	+26	Yes	+$2	05-29 13:32
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	2	$68	35	35	+0	open	—	09-20 12:29
hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority	5	$66	39	39	+0	Yes	$0	04-12 20:12
will ren yahuasi calamani win the 2026 la paz gubernatorial election 682	4	$62	33	33	+0	No	+$2	04-03 14:54
will manuel saavedra win the 2026 santa cruz de la sierra mayoral election	3	$62	33	33	+0	Yes	+$1	03-22 19:55
Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo	2	$60	32	32	+0	open	—	09-01 13:04
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	2	$60	35	35	+0	open	—	05-19 19:38
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	2	$57	29	29	+0	Yes	+$1	05-14 19:16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	2	$56	41	41	+0	Yes	-$4	05-17 11:29
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	5	$56	64	64	+0	No	+$6	03-27 17:13
will fidesz kdnp win at least 110 seats	4	$53	28	28	+0	No	+$3	04-13 12:05
will fidesz kdnp win at least 70 seats	8	$50	40	40	+0	No	$0	04-12 18:29
will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	2	$50	31	31	+0	Yes	+$0	03-07 14:08
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	4	$49	53	0	+53	No	+$4	04-29 16:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 21:30:36	Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	13	24¢	$3	0xc22196…
10-23 21:30:06	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0xdbdb8f…
09-24 17:32:15	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0x49f2e0…
09-21 20:50:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 20:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x82b94b…
09-20 12:29:04	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	35	97¢	$34	0xbad31b…
09-15 14:07:22	Will Elche CF vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xd6e8b3…
09-15 14:06:43	will wti reach 105 in september 2026	No	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0xcef158…
09-05 18:45:37	Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?	No	SELL	73	96¢	$70	0xa1346c…
09-01 13:04:49	Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo	No	SELL	32	94¢	$30	0xa79ca3…
08-21 15:20:54	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	35	97¢	$34	0xab7d1e…
08-21 15:16:21	Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?	No	BUY	73	95¢	$70	0x25b732…
08-21 15:15:04	Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay	No	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x15838f…
07-18 20:02:37	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 extra time	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x6352e5…
07-18 20:02:27	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 btts	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x436f62…
07-18 20:02:16	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x470644…
07-18 20:02:13	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xc280de…
07-18 20:01:48	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x51d86f…
06-29 08:38:05	Will United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x274249…
06-26 11:57:41	Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x8bb023…
06-20 12:12:47	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on june 30	Anthropic	SELL	19	97¢	$18	0x2cad20…
06-17 12:58:20	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x9c6ef0…
06-15 08:30:58	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x65868a…
06-15 08:30:46	Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x9743b8…
06-14 18:11:54	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0x7337df…
06-14 18:10:43	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xa62ba0…
06-09 19:45:45	Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x53bf25…
05-29 13:33:32	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	11	97¢	$11	0xc53868…
05-29 13:33:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x36c1b0…
05-29 13:33:01	Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation on June 30?	No	SELL	6	90¢	$6	0x0bff32…
05-29 13:32:22	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?	Yes	SELL	26	88¢	$23	0x01ac8a…
05-29 13:31:52	Will OpenAI have the third highest private market valuation on June 30?	Yes	SELL	15	86¢	$13	0x444384…
05-29 12:55:16	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	12	96¢	$12	0x58f5c1…
05-27 12:59:54	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Yes	SELL	18	74¢	$13	0x739caf…
05-24 11:57:55	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	36	92¢	$33	0xa73b85…
05-22 17:19:41	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	14	88¢	$12	0x9c43b4…
05-22 17:19:23	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x9c95d6…
05-21 16:27:45	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by June 30?	Yes	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x9edcc7…
05-21 16:25:39	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	24	82¢	$20	0xf6d802…
05-21 14:25:57	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	15	37¢	$5	0x5477a7…
05-21 14:22:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0x6b203c…
05-21 14:21:17	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xab84cc…
05-21 14:21:01	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0x4c858b…
05-21 11:09:52	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30?	Anthropic	BUY	19	84¢	$16	0xd7415e…
05-21 11:09:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	SELL	12	94¢	$11	0x132fd2…
05-21 11:09:20	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	57¢	$5	0xa94d1d…
05-21 11:03:56	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	79¢	$2	0xa10208…
05-21 11:03:34	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x8a0f30…
05-21 11:02:55	Ebola pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	13	92¢	$12	0xcae146…
05-20 19:06:54	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30?	Yes	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0x1c2a96…
05-20 19:06:24	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $925B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x559a40…
05-20 15:46:45	Will OpenAI have the third highest private market valuation on June 30?	Yes	BUY	15	75¢	$11	0xc508c3…
05-20 15:46:01	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	12	94¢	$11	0xc4397f…
05-20 15:45:33	Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation on June 30?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x572c6e…
05-20 15:34:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	SELL	6	93¢	$5	0x0777f4…
05-20 15:31:49	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x8adbb8…
05-20 14:20:48	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	6	92¢	$6	0x80d457…
05-19 19:42:05	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	15	92¢	$14	0xca9107…
05-19 19:41:00	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x5a14b0…
05-19 19:39:47	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xaffe38…
05-19 19:39:41	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x28dcab…
05-19 19:38:44	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	35	85¢	$30	0xa823e4…
05-19 19:37:48	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0xb9a0a0…
05-19 19:36:10	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $925B by June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x5f939a…
05-19 19:35:15	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x8b082f…
05-19 19:35:07	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xca0554…
05-18 13:22:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xa31dc5…
05-18 13:15:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x5b3d73…
05-18 13:13:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x99a302…
05-18 13:12:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	SELL	12	44¢	$6	0x7a7edc…
05-18 13:09:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x598101…
05-18 13:07:54	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 18?	Yes	SELL	11	25¢	$3	0x90112f…
05-18 13:07:49	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 18?	Yes	SELL	7	41¢	$3	0x01e59e…
05-18 13:01:52	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xa8c066…
05-18 13:01:47	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x5e3fae…
05-18 12:32:40	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 18?	Yes	SELL	11	60¢	$6	0x4ad574…
05-18 12:31:43	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 18?	Yes	SELL	7	6¢	$0	0x6690cf…
05-18 12:31:39	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 18?	Yes	SELL	4	10¢	$0	0x5e1a8e…
05-18 12:26:36	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 18?	Yes	SELL	10	26¢	$2	0x705168…
05-18 12:19:33	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x37ec9a…
05-18 12:15:31	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x5598b8…
05-18 12:00:11	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xac9302…
05-18 11:51:01	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x163c0a…
05-18 11:50:04	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xe5a631…
05-18 11:47:58	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 18?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x9d0adb…
05-18 11:14:51	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xcf13c0…
05-18 11:14:18	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x847f63…
05-18 11:10:48	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x43de69…
05-18 11:10:45	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x058369…
05-17 19:31:42	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x4a5c08…
05-17 19:31:29	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x8e456d…
05-17 19:28:38	Ebola pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0xcb3ff4…
05-17 19:22:55	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	29¢	$1	0x454380…
05-17 17:23:27	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x6938b3…
05-17 17:22:59	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x7a55da…
05-17 17:06:16	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x185aa2…
05-17 15:35:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x5a83b4…
05-17 15:33:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x68bfce…
05-17 15:32:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x5df22c…
05-17 15:25:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0x448706…
05-17 15:24:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x769d9d…