Ugly-Forest — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

76.7%

Resolved

Trades

885

lifetime

Volume

$5.28K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-05

last 06-20 12:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

46% 50% $-2

Politics

36% 50% $-2

Crypto

9% — —

Tech

5% — —

Pop-Culture

4% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will big ai be out as 1 free app in the us apple store by march 8	5	$391	940	0	+940	open	—	03-07 20:16
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?	2	$202	119	119	+0	open	—	04-17 17:13
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	11	$198	139	139	+0	open	—	04-12 19:29
will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	8	$188	132	132	+0	open	—	03-22 21:51
will claude be out as the 1 free app in the us apple store by march 10 328	6	$158	159	159	+0	open	—	03-07 13:12
will turnout in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary elections be between 65 and 70	12	$146	411	32	+379	open	—	03-28 14:54
will tisza win at least 130 seats	5	$145	81	81	+0	open	—	04-13 05:44
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	12	$122	95	95	+0	open	—	04-12 15:36
will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	6	$119	76	76	+0	open	—	03-21 13:23
will big ai be out as 1 free app in the us apple store by march 9	3	$105	179	0	+179	open	—	03-07 14:19
left wing wave in french mayoral elections	5	$90	55	55	+0	open	—	03-21 12:39
will fidesz kdnp win at least 60 seats	7	$83	55	55	+0	open	—	04-12 11:25
will tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	5	$81	44	44	+0	open	—	04-12 19:29
will claude by anthropic be 1 free app in the us apple app store on march 10	4	$80	53	53	+0	open	—	03-07 12:05
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	7	$71	87	86	+0	open	—	03-07 14:09
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?	4	$70	52	26	+26	open	—	05-29 13:32
hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority	5	$66	39	39	+0	open	—	04-12 20:12
will ren yahuasi calamani win the 2026 la paz gubernatorial election 682	4	$62	33	33	+0	open	—	04-03 14:54
will manuel saavedra win the 2026 santa cruz de la sierra mayoral election	3	$62	33	33	+0	open	—	03-22 19:55
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	5	$56	64	64	+0	open	—	03-27 17:13
will fidesz kdnp win at least 110 seats	4	$53	28	28	+0	open	—	04-13 12:05
will fidesz kdnp win at least 70 seats	8	$50	40	40	+0	open	—	04-12 18:29
will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	2	$50	31	31	+0	open	—	03-07 14:08
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	4	$49	53	0	+53	open	—	04-29 16:46
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	5	$49	44	44	+0	open	—	04-21 19:24
will beinir johannesen be the next lgmaur of the faroe islands following the 2026 faroese general election	3	$48	31	31	+0	open	—	03-26 12:17
btc updown 5m 1774088400	4	$45	27	27	+0	open	—	03-21 10:24
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	2	$41	26	26	+0	open	—	04-03 20:30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	4	$39	21	21	+0	open	—	04-29 16:42
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	6	$37	19	19	+0	open	—	04-30 11:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-20 12:12:47	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on june 30	Anthropic	SELL	19	97¢	$18	0x2cad20…
05-29 13:33:32	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	11	97¢	$11	0xc53868…
05-29 13:33:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x36c1b0…
05-29 13:32:22	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?	Yes	SELL	26	88¢	$23	0x01ac8a…
05-29 12:55:16	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	12	96¢	$12	0x58f5c1…
05-24 11:57:55	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	36	92¢	$33	0xa73b85…
05-22 17:19:41	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	14	88¢	$12	0x9c43b4…
05-22 17:19:23	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x9c95d6…
05-21 16:27:45	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by June 30?	Yes	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x9edcc7…
05-21 14:22:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0x6b203c…
05-21 11:09:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	SELL	12	94¢	$11	0x132fd2…
05-21 11:03:56	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	79¢	$2	0xa10208…
05-21 11:03:34	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x8a0f30…
05-20 19:06:54	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30?	Yes	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0x1c2a96…
05-20 19:06:24	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $925B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x559a40…
05-20 15:34:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	SELL	6	93¢	$5	0x0777f4…
05-20 14:20:48	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	6	92¢	$6	0x80d457…
05-19 19:36:10	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $925B by June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x5f939a…
05-19 19:35:15	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x8b082f…
05-18 13:22:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xa31dc5…
05-18 13:15:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x5b3d73…
05-18 13:13:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x99a302…
05-18 13:12:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	SELL	12	44¢	$6	0x7a7edc…
05-18 13:09:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x598101…
05-18 13:07:54	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 18?	Yes	SELL	11	25¢	$3	0x90112f…
05-18 13:07:49	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 18?	Yes	SELL	7	41¢	$3	0x01e59e…
05-18 13:01:52	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xa8c066…
05-18 13:01:47	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x5e3fae…
05-18 12:32:40	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 18?	Yes	SELL	11	60¢	$6	0x4ad574…
05-18 12:31:43	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 18?	Yes	SELL	7	6¢	$0	0x6690cf…
05-18 12:31:39	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 18?	Yes	SELL	4	10¢	$0	0x5e1a8e…
05-18 12:26:36	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 18?	Yes	SELL	10	26¢	$2	0x705168…
05-18 12:19:33	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x37ec9a…
05-18 12:15:31	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x5598b8…
05-18 12:00:11	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xac9302…
05-18 11:51:01	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x163c0a…
05-18 11:50:04	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xe5a631…
05-18 11:47:58	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 18?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x9d0adb…
05-18 11:14:51	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xcf13c0…
05-18 11:14:18	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x847f63…
05-18 11:10:48	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x43de69…
05-18 11:10:45	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x058369…
05-17 19:31:42	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x4a5c08…
05-17 19:31:29	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x8e456d…
05-17 19:22:55	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	29¢	$1	0x454380…
05-17 17:22:59	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x7a55da…
05-17 17:06:16	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x185aa2…
05-17 15:35:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x5a83b4…
05-17 15:33:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x68bfce…
05-17 15:32:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x5df22c…
05-17 15:25:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0x448706…
05-17 15:24:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x769d9d…
05-17 08:53:19	Will Trump say "America Last" in May?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xdefdf7…
05-16 17:26:33	Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	56¢	$8	0x7a3303…
05-15 13:06:22	Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0xa7b174…
05-14 13:45:37	Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x17326b…
05-14 13:31:17	Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x59eec9…
05-14 13:26:58	Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x923fb4…
05-14 13:23:39	Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x6c4dee…
05-14 13:21:52	Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x79b2e1…
05-12 16:57:26	Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NRG - Map 2 Winner	FaZe	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0x08963d…
05-12 16:56:18	Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NRG - Map 2 Winner	FaZe	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x6fb396…
05-12 16:55:55	Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	NRG	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x1a0680…
05-12 13:43:02	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x61e916…
05-10 20:07:38	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xab622e…
05-10 20:03:27	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x70fbc8…
05-10 19:59:00	Trump approval Up or Down this week?	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xb437cf…
05-10 19:38:22	Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)	FC Barcelona	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xeec3d5…
05-08 15:42:16	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	SELL	8	12¢	$1	0x94fae2…
05-08 08:07:15	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	SELL	11	82¢	$9	0x63fe0f…
05-07 21:11:14	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x8a272d…
05-07 21:08:15	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xbba435…
05-07 21:04:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x74f27a…
05-07 20:58:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x35d34f…
05-07 11:49:41	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	53¢	$10	0x6bcc00…
05-06 10:20:44	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0xf083b8…
05-06 08:54:28	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	12	89¢	$11	0xa29d68…
05-01 20:32:14	Will Trump say "No No No" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x8331e4…
05-01 20:31:14	Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x55f26c…
05-01 20:28:58	Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x36926b…
05-01 20:28:48	Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x13728c…
05-01 20:19:44	Will Trump say "Percent" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x6a5643…
05-01 20:19:22	Will Trump say "Military" at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x96d488…
05-01 20:19:00	Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x7b951e…
05-01 20:18:58	Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x16a93a…
05-01 20:18:00	Will Trump say "Mars" at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x557fa6…
05-01 19:13:14	Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x768466…
05-01 19:13:08	Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xa01be2…
05-01 15:46:14	Will Trump say "Deduction" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x3b0e10…
05-01 15:46:08	Will Trump say "Mar-a-Lago" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xcb5719…
05-01 14:30:42	Will Trump say "Stock market" or "401(k)" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x66f7c0…
05-01 14:30:38	Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xee9004…
05-01 14:00:42	Will Trump say "China" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x3119ce…
05-01 14:00:36	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x79f923…
05-01 14:00:12	Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x70461c…
05-01 14:00:04	Will Trump say "Ballroom" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x1a34f4…
05-01 13:59:42	Will Trump say "Melania" or "First Lady" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xba419d…
05-01 13:59:22	Will Trump say "Transgender" at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x77c661…
05-01 13:59:12	Will Trump say "Venezuela" at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x2f40a0…
05-01 06:56:38	Will Trump say "DoorDash" or "McDonald's" at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x8c934f…