Rundown-Mantua — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

50.5%

Resolved

Trades

303

lifetime

Volume

$305

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 06-13 07:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

32% 0% $-0

Politics

31% — —

Crypto

29% 100% +$0

Tech

4% — —

Sports

3% — —

Pop-Culture

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

62 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No		-1	$-1	94¢	$-1	+$0	06-11 07:18
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes		-1	$-0	6¢	$-0	$-0	06-11 07:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	11	$12	6	6	+0	open	—	02-05 08:19
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 4 million	9	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	01-14 03:03
will bangladesh nationalist party win the most seats in the bangladesh parliamentary election	7	$8	5	5	+0	open	—	02-12 08:27
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	5	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	02-10 09:56
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	04-11 07:45
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	5	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	01-26 09:41
will larry page be 2nd richest person on march 31	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	03-28 06:24
spx opens up or down on february 18 2026	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	02-18 10:09
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-13 06:59
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-21 02:34
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-26 04:20
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-24 09:43
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-11 07:45
over 20m committed to the ranger public sale 942	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-07 09:15
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-25 06:28
nothing ever happens microstrategy	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	02-20 06:51
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-01 06:47
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-16 02:32
Will Keysight's Q2 orders be above $1.65B?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-13 07:00
bitcoin above 66k on march 27	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-27 08:40
bitcoin above 64k on june 5 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-05 06:09
will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the strait of hormuz on march 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-03 03:17
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	04-03 03:25
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-25 06:25
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-22 06:47
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-01 07:00
bitcoin above 68k on march 16	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-16 02:34
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-30 06:08
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-21 07:08
us forces enter iran by march 7	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-06 02:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-13 07:36:37	will xauusd dip to 3900 in june 2026	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x88b5c1…
06-12 07:10:40	will ethereum reach 2000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x2adba7…
06-12 07:09:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	Yes	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x0b87d8…
06-12 07:00:22	will ethereum reach 2000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xc9b943…
06-12 06:54:16	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x4c3b41…
06-11 07:41:10	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x84e300…
06-11 07:28:37	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc81b3c…
06-11 07:18:12	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xbcc6ef…
06-11 07:17:40	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0x2b4446…
06-09 03:17:06	bitcoin above 60k on june 9 2026	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x530dfa…
06-09 03:16:21	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xa3a673…
06-09 03:08:46	bitcoin above 60k on june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xae5699…
06-09 03:01:57	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xd47bf7…
06-08 02:40:39	will bitcoin reach 65k on june 7	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x32fcee…
06-08 02:39:03	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x10fb04…
06-08 02:31:31	will bitcoin reach 65k on june 7	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa42b03…
06-08 02:26:00	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xab0403…
06-06 07:09:46	italy senate approves nuclear power bill by august 31	Yes	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0xc7a259…
06-06 07:04:01	will bitcoin dip to 58k june 1 7 2026	No	SELL	1	64¢	$1	0xfcad32…
06-06 06:49:00	will bitcoin dip to 58k june 1 7 2026	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xc50f47…
06-06 06:45:16	italy senate approves nuclear power bill by august 31	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x418a12…
06-05 06:09:15	bitcoin above 64k on june 5 2026	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x576502…
06-05 06:07:46	Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x44d21f…
06-05 04:46:00	bitcoin above 64k on june 5 2026	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x86b159…
06-05 04:40:49	Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x88ad9d…
06-04 06:43:16	will donald trump publicly insult xi jinping by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xa74995…
06-04 06:42:19	tea fdv above 40m one day after launch	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x6e7f80…
06-04 06:33:51	will donald trump publicly insult xi jinping by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x89e514…
06-04 06:27:01	tea fdv above 40m one day after launch	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x84d781…
06-03 06:07:48	Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x561aa2…
06-03 06:07:03	Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x331a47…
06-03 04:30:15	Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x448a73…
06-03 04:25:36	Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x440f21…
06-02 03:39:51	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x2a5ec2…
06-01 07:00:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1?	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x347a98…
06-01 06:47:12	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x078543…
06-01 06:28:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xa1e622…
06-01 06:22:14	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xace831…
05-30 06:45:01	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x7fd0bb…
05-30 06:29:04	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x3d9a9e…
05-29 04:35:12	Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x5fb48d…
05-29 04:31:34	will matt schultz advance from the ak al primary election	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x1b6fae…
05-29 04:18:05	Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x0e7ad5…
05-29 03:50:14	will matt schultz advance from the ak al primary election	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xa0beab…
05-28 06:41:04	Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xb23d24…
05-28 06:35:04	Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xbd7431…
05-27 06:45:00	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xeb473e…
05-27 06:32:01	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x6eca7c…
05-26 04:20:13	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x585631…
05-26 04:10:16	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb125f2…
05-25 04:39:30	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xa3951b…
05-25 04:37:15	Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xbd0b8e…
05-25 04:28:23	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe256d1…
05-25 04:18:27	Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x550b3c…
05-23 06:11:17	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x952c64…
05-23 04:20:50	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x86dbbb…
05-22 06:47:12	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x3225f0…
05-22 06:37:05	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x226814…
05-21 07:08:48	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x9b7ce4…
05-21 07:06:21	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xc6cb1a…
05-21 06:43:31	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x69de07…
05-21 06:35:56	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xab6d00…
05-20 06:31:55	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x0851e1…
05-20 06:24:23	Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0xd409c3…
05-20 04:53:41	Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xba27f6…
05-20 04:49:46	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x6ce345…
05-19 04:29:27	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xb62349…
05-19 04:22:45	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xd05ab7…
05-18 06:43:12	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x0724ab…
05-18 06:33:03	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xffad32…
05-16 06:09:27	Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x13a25e…
05-16 04:57:12	Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x3583c0…
05-15 04:23:28	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xb3a643…
05-15 04:06:59	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xef9193…
05-14 06:08:18	Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xef5078…
05-14 04:48:01	Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xcfbba5…
05-13 07:00:32	Will Keysight's Q2 orders be above $1.65B?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x5f9c94…
05-13 06:59:39	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x961ed2…
05-13 06:42:42	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xeb21b3…
05-13 06:38:09	Will Keysight's Q2 orders be above $1.65B?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xb85729…
05-12 06:56:52	Will Keysight's Q2 orders be above $1.65B?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x043b19…
05-12 06:46:25	Will Keysight's Q2 orders be above $1.65B?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x9deb99…
05-08 06:59:26	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x5d21fa…
05-08 06:13:11	Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xa99730…
05-08 06:04:55	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x52ccb9…
05-08 04:09:06	Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xdfc367…
05-07 02:59:37	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x6a5123…
05-07 02:51:21	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x0fda5f…
05-06 05:57:34	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xa4526c…
05-06 05:56:48	Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xef9371…
05-06 04:01:08	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x8e84d5…
05-06 03:57:20	Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x4a9689…
04-30 06:08:42	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xcff68c…
04-30 06:06:50	Will XRP dip to $1.20 in April?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x33c940…
04-30 04:49:56	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd92b38…
04-30 04:47:18	Will XRP dip to $1.20 in April?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc67a08…
04-29 03:29:02	Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x7f3c9e…
04-29 03:17:22	Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x855459…
04-28 02:43:46	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x53d87d…
04-28 02:41:32	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x1c4bdf…