Rundown-Mantua — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

50.5%

Resolved

Trades

429

lifetime

Volume

$430

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 08-01 09:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

36% 0% $-0

Politics

31% — —

Crypto

24% 100% +$0

Tech

5% — —

Sports

2% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

52 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	11	$12	6	6	+0	open	—	02-05 08:19
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 4 million	9	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	01-14 03:03
will bangladesh nationalist party win the most seats in the bangladesh parliamentary election	7	$8	5	5	+0	open	—	02-12 08:27
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	5	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	02-10 09:56
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	04-11 07:45
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	5	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	01-26 09:41
will larry page be 2nd richest person on march 31	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	03-28 06:24
spx opens up or down on february 18 2026	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	02-18 10:09
will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-22 07:29
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-13 06:59
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-21 02:34
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-26 04:20
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-22 07:13
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-24 09:43
will ethereum reach 2000 in june 2026 from june 2	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-24 07:57
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-11 07:45
over 20m committed to the ranger public sale 942	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-07 09:15
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-25 06:28
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-31 07:36
nothing ever happens microstrategy	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	02-20 06:51
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-01 06:47
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-16 02:32
Will Keysight's Q2 orders be above $1.65B?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-13 07:00
bitcoin above 66k on march 27	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-27 08:40
Will Selena Gomez attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-27 07:18
bitcoin above 64k on june 5 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-05 06:09
will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the strait of hormuz on march 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-03 03:17
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	04-03 03:25
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-25 06:25
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-22 06:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-01 09:25:51	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x4a72a3…
08-01 09:19:18	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x4cb743…
07-31 07:36:02	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x3bb7f2…
07-31 07:28:36	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x6e9bd0…
07-31 07:18:06	Anthropic acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x6d2999…
07-31 07:11:42	Anthropic acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x5b8b84…
07-30 08:35:45	will xagusd dip to 54 in july 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xc81d73…
07-30 08:23:59	will xagusd dip to 54 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x02e123…
07-30 08:18:29	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x1b60a4…
07-30 08:14:02	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x6d8b5b…
07-28 10:18:50	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x255a03…
07-28 10:06:47	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x6c96ae…
07-28 10:02:31	iran military action against a gulf state on july 29 20260708212322954	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x1633b5…
07-28 07:40:46	iran military action against a gulf state on july 29 20260708212322954	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xab6b1f…
07-27 06:51:10	Probable FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x95e7dd…
07-27 06:44:48	Probable FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x0a27da…
07-27 06:41:00	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by december 31 2026 20260715004553751	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x12268a…
07-27 06:35:01	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by december 31 2026 20260715004553751	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa1ec34…
07-25 07:58:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xcee233…
07-25 07:51:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x8772b1…
07-25 07:48:10	andrew tate released from custody by july 31 2026 20260719025109263	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x140de5…
07-25 07:42:42	andrew tate released from custody by july 31 2026 20260719025109263	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf007e0…
07-24 07:51:42	will xauusd reach 4300 in july 2026	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xdd992d…
07-24 07:46:52	will xauusd reach 4300 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x02a014…
07-24 07:41:22	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xa7df8f…
07-24 07:28:18	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xb7cdab…
07-23 07:48:34	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x7eb65f…
07-23 07:42:01	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xfeef8a…
07-23 07:36:57	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by december 31 20260722053445711	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x8c0b1d…
07-23 07:29:40	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by december 31 20260722053445711	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x8b00c8…
07-22 07:29:16	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x4bc888…
07-22 07:20:27	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x53872a…
07-22 07:13:34	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x6e6fa3…
07-22 07:00:27	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x65ce5e…
07-21 06:54:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 24 2026 20260713152715081 211	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x71542e…
07-21 06:50:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 24 2026 20260713152715081 211	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x833cf0…
07-20 07:52:00	will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by july 31 20260720003505492	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x4de330…
07-20 07:41:33	will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by july 31 20260720003505492	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x89134b…
07-20 07:36:42	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xfb1539…
07-20 07:30:55	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x61ddd0…
07-18 07:38:01	will russia enter mykhailivka by july 31	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xf37cc6…
07-18 07:26:04	will russia enter mykhailivka by july 31	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x6c82b9…
07-17 07:03:49	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x9cbd29…
07-17 06:57:45	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xf26268…
07-17 06:53:03	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x4190e6…
07-17 06:43:46	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xbf05e4…
07-16 08:12:01	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x7f427b…
07-16 07:38:59	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xd2cece…
07-15 08:01:04	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220 197	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x245a62…
07-15 07:52:02	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220 197	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8ec7d4…
07-14 07:38:10	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x7fe40a…
07-14 07:28:52	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xfab6c9…
07-14 07:17:26	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by july 31 20260707233859433	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x6b6d7e…
07-14 07:04:58	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by july 31 20260707233859433	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x947790…
07-13 07:44:11	will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x3f4f84…
07-13 07:41:17	will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x7f2065…
07-13 07:29:05	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x46204c…
07-13 07:20:32	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x9dd899…
07-11 07:54:02	will nvda reach 256 in july 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xfd04e0…
07-11 07:47:10	will nvda reach 256 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x0f4b33…
07-11 07:39:28	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x185d9b…
07-11 07:34:43	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc70a61…
07-09 07:06:38	iran successfully targets shipping on july 6 20260625225210247	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x7f7c80…
07-09 06:55:01	iran successfully targets shipping on july 6 20260625225210247	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xcf3b2b…
07-09 06:50:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xb1473d…
07-09 06:43:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x678089…
07-08 07:20:22	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x5ff57e…
07-08 07:11:08	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x6152a6…
07-08 07:07:14	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x3db5dd…
07-08 06:58:50	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa40aec…
07-07 07:41:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x0df831…
07-07 07:33:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x48cad1…
07-07 07:30:56	will trump praise mark rutte by july 31 20260626214328039	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x26550e…
07-07 07:22:02	will trump praise mark rutte by july 31 20260626214328039	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xca023a…
07-04 07:03:58	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xbf997e…
07-04 06:56:22	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xa17585…
07-04 06:53:55	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x25eff2…
07-04 06:49:23	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x5c0d0c…
07-02 06:52:29	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x40331a…
07-02 06:41:58	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa255d8…
07-02 06:36:19	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xecfeb2…
07-02 06:30:52	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xc410e5…
07-01 06:16:20	over 8m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x24aa3f…
07-01 06:08:46	over 8m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x67d478…
07-01 06:04:32	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x494c4a…
07-01 03:52:08	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x949dcd…
06-30 06:38:14	iran successfully targets shipping on july 8 20260625225210249	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xa29d17…
06-30 06:31:11	iran successfully targets shipping on july 8 20260625225210249	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x219ebe…
06-30 06:25:49	will donald trump publicly insult jimmy kimmel by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x0d6b48…
06-30 06:21:08	will donald trump publicly insult jimmy kimmel by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xd7bcef…
06-29 07:38:11	iran successfully targets shipping on june 29 20260625225210240	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x44fd1f…
06-29 07:30:32	iran successfully targets shipping on june 29 20260625225210240	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xeb30a0…
06-27 07:18:14	Will Selena Gomez attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x470b5f…
06-27 07:10:38	Will Selena Gomez attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x27de29…
06-27 07:09:44	Will Selena Gomez attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x49c21b…
06-27 07:05:58	Will Selena Gomez attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xc0897e…
06-26 08:08:08	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt35t by june 30	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xcec232…
06-26 07:54:17	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt35t by june 30	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xaa44b2…
06-25 06:51:02	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xde7b8c…
06-25 06:39:04	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe9d62c…