Sympathetic-Ivory — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

70.7%

Resolved

Trades

190

lifetime

Volume

$15.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$79

Open exposure

$388

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-14

last 06-18 00:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

50% — —

Other

28% 33% $-1

Sports

20% 100% +$0

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No		+218	$210	96¢	$210	$-0	06-18 05:10
Will Alberta join the US?	No		+185	$177	97¢	$179	+$1	06-02 16:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	4	$932	576	576	+0	open	—	06-06 16:30
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	9	$888	627	626	+1	No	+$0	04-25 18:53
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	7	$860	606	606	+0	open	—	06-09 16:30
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	5	$598	306	306	+0	open	—	04-07 12:19
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	10	$597	629	629	+0	Yes	$-1	04-24 01:29
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	5	$581	309	309	+0	open	—	05-21 01:33
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	5	$574	292	292	+0	No	+$0	04-02 07:50
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	7	$559	321	321	+0	open	—	04-26 13:18
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	4	$481	583	583	+0	open	—	06-02 09:46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	2	$467	467	467	+0	open	—	06-06 02:35
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	4	$448	287	287	+0	open	—	06-12 18:11
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	3	$446	333	333	+0	open	—	06-09 09:25
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	4	$444	249	249	+0	open	—	06-09 01:34
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	5	$431	472	472	+0	open	—	06-06 05:09
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	4	$430	285	285	+0	open	—	06-08 17:51
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	5	$417	251	251	+0	open	—	06-12 22:50
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	4	$409	227	227	+0	open	—	06-12 13:12
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	7	$394	761	761	+0	open	—	06-15 19:04
will robert macintyre win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$318	162	162	+0	open	—	03-15 22:09
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	4	$318	202	202	+0	open	—	03-18 09:58
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	7	$314	485	485	+0	open	—	04-27 00:42
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$289	149	149	+0	open	—	03-14 09:20
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	3	$289	146	146	+0	open	—	03-16 20:24
will matt fitzpatrick win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$288	147	147	+0	open	—	03-17 12:46
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	2	$288	146	146	+0	open	—	03-21 03:50
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	4	$288	148	148	+0	open	—	03-17 06:09
will iowa state win the 2026 ncaa tournament	3	$287	150	150	+0	open	—	03-22 01:15
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	6	$287	147	147	+0	open	—	03-18 17:55
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$286	146	146	+0	open	—	04-01 14:54
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	3	$285	146	146	+0	open	—	05-18 13:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-18 05:10:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	161	96¢	$155	0xfd2e50…
06-18 05:10:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	57	96¢	$55	0x6f7c2e…
06-18 03:32:23	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	33	13¢	$4	0x801b7e…
06-18 03:32:23	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	200	13¢	$26	0x6bba10…
06-18 03:32:23	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	483	13¢	$63	0x515a1f…
06-18 00:06:17	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	716	14¢	$100	0x4170f3…
06-17 20:18:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	87	4¢	$3	0xb2e19d…
06-17 20:18:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	86	4¢	$3	0xf93511…
06-17 20:18:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	4¢	$1	0x85fd44…
06-17 20:18:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	4¢	$2	0x0773e7…
06-17 20:18:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	4¢	$2	0xc7c167…
06-17 20:18:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	54	4¢	$2	0x576a5a…
06-17 20:17:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	4¢	$2	0x68319b…
06-17 20:17:41	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	4¢	$1	0x51f778…
06-17 20:17:23	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	116	4¢	$4	0xc1574f…
06-17 20:17:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	4¢	$1	0xeb1b69…
06-17 20:17:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	4¢	$0	0xb7fffc…
06-17 16:09:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	622	4¢	$23	0x1d5a68…
06-15 19:04:07	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	SELL	576	4¢	$24	0x7f39f5…
06-15 16:38:34	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	576	2¢	$12	0x63c00a…
06-13 19:52:06	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	SELL	72	97¢	$70	0x973e18…
06-13 19:52:06	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	SELL	67	97¢	$65	0x07e2e2…
06-13 19:52:04	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	SELL	46	97¢	$45	0x39641d…
06-13 16:30:30	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xc82bfb…
06-13 16:30:30	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	BUY	165	97¢	$161	0xbf8f80…
06-12 22:50:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	149	83¢	$124	0xdbcfbd…
06-12 22:50:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	102	83¢	$85	0x3c79ef…
06-12 21:25:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	28	84¢	$24	0xd4e78e…
06-12 21:24:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	153	83¢	$127	0xe6c90f…
06-12 21:24:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	70	83¢	$58	0xcf9a77…
06-12 18:11:19	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	219	80¢	$175	0xfb8b93…
06-12 18:11:19	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	60	80¢	$48	0x264171…
06-12 18:11:18	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	8	80¢	$6	0x857cb3…
06-12 17:05:51	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	287	76¢	$218	0xf79011…
06-12 13:12:03	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	176	87¢	$154	0x4d4c21…
06-12 11:05:09	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	51	84¢	$43	0x06a7c3…
06-12 07:59:31	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	46	94¢	$43	0x9ce288…
06-12 07:59:31	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	181	94¢	$170	0x1e63e1…
06-10 21:11:39	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	327	19¢	$62	0xa1ae4b…
06-09 22:05:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	327	19¢	$62	0x962090…
06-09 16:30:45	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	77	74¢	$57	0xe12ebe…
06-09 16:30:45	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	209	74¢	$155	0x81e0f2…
06-09 12:39:04	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	142	78¢	$111	0xa67f6a…
06-09 12:39:04	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	144	78¢	$112	0x2949f9…
06-09 09:25:03	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	333	67¢	$223	0xf4218b…
06-09 06:53:45	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	321	67¢	$215	0xfedbf7…
06-09 06:53:45	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	67¢	$8	0x213fbc…
06-09 01:34:45	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	SELL	121	90¢	$109	0x6b5592…
06-09 01:34:45	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	SELL	128	90¢	$115	0x398716…
06-08 22:21:55	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x8abeb2…
06-08 22:21:15	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	243	88¢	$214	0x9d1d84…
06-08 17:51:51	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	11	77¢	$8	0xee210d…
06-08 17:51:51	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	229	77¢	$176	0xa3e1bc…
06-08 17:51:51	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	45	77¢	$35	0x496ff1…
06-08 15:22:18	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	285	74¢	$211	0x4c8368…
06-07 15:02:22	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	601	4¢	$24	0xea21df…
06-07 14:00:51	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	601	4¢	$23	0x2382af…
06-07 10:27:40	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x82e1ce…
06-07 10:27:33	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	192	5¢	$9	0x92ea13…
06-07 10:27:33	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	449	5¢	$21	0x3ad18b…
06-07 08:06:04	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	642	5¢	$32	0xd817f1…
06-07 02:49:10	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	43	29¢	$12	0xe12ad4…
06-07 02:49:10	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	249	29¢	$72	0x4f2061…
06-07 00:58:06	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	172	29¢	$50	0x02184d…
06-07 00:58:06	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	120	29¢	$35	0x016c13…
06-06 16:30:54	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	288	81¢	$234	0x11232d…
06-06 14:06:03	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	288	81¢	$233	0x423af5…
06-06 05:09:00	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	52	98¢	$51	0x9af9c8…
06-06 05:09:00	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	163	98¢	$161	0x57ff9b…
06-06 03:33:55	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	215	99¢	$212	0x5b0ed1…
06-06 02:35:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	467	50¢	$234	0x439b7e…
06-05 23:17:57	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	467	50¢	$234	0x7f4834…
06-05 17:53:58	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	257	2¢	$4	0xcf84c9…
06-05 16:50:33	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	257	1¢	$4	0x74a33d…
06-05 13:08:00	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	52	31¢	$16	0x9ddd28…
06-05 10:50:30	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	52	31¢	$16	0x642b5f…
06-05 09:08:49	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	288	81¢	$233	0x15164b…
06-05 07:07:58	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	288	81¢	$232	0xb49914…
06-02 16:39:50	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x5c8908…
06-02 16:39:50	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x5abba6…
06-02 11:16:54	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	35	96¢	$34	0x7240ef…
06-02 11:16:52	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	170	96¢	$163	0x083e9b…
06-02 09:46:01	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	236	99¢	$233	0xc0e306…
06-02 08:05:11	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	236	99¢	$233	0x8c9f0e…
06-02 00:11:50	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	320	66¢	$211	0x3a7966…
06-01 21:58:36	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	72	67¢	$48	0xc850d9…
06-01 21:58:36	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	248	67¢	$166	0x3320f8…
06-01 16:30:06	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	347	2¢	$7	0xe98240…
06-01 14:47:12	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	347	2¢	$7	0x2e04f8…
05-27 15:20:12	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	67	3¢	$2	0xad5940…
05-24 13:32:58	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	184	7¢	$14	0xac1e4a…
05-24 13:32:58	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	83	7¢	$6	0xa49846…
05-24 11:26:27	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	334	11¢	$36	0xa02e9c…
05-21 01:33:05	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	136	90¢	$122	0xf3f49b…
05-21 01:33:05	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	14	90¢	$13	0x332361…
05-20 21:36:15	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	150	91¢	$137	0xce6d6c…
05-19 18:36:08	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	257	7¢	$18	0xd5f264…
05-19 18:36:08	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	7¢	$1	0xaae4e6…
05-19 18:36:08	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	7¢	$2	0x85cae8…
05-19 16:45:41	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	153	7¢	$10	0x80c962…