Sympathetic-Ivory — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

70.7%

Resolved

Trades

231

lifetime

Volume

$17.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$77

Open exposure

$180

1 position

First seen

2026-03-14

last 06-26 04:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

51% — —

Other

31% 33% $-1

Sports

18% 100% +$0

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Alberta join the US?	No		+185	$177	98¢	$180	+$3	06-02 16:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	4	$932	576	576	+0	open	—	06-06 16:30
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	9	$888	627	626	+1	No	+$0	04-25 18:53
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	7	$860	606	606	+0	open	—	06-09 16:30
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	11	$829	794	794	+0	open	—	06-22 23:45
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	5	$598	306	306	+0	open	—	04-07 12:19
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	10	$597	629	629	+0	Yes	$-1	04-24 01:29
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	5	$581	309	309	+0	open	—	05-21 01:33
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	5	$574	292	292	+0	No	+$0	04-02 07:50
israel closes its airspace by july 15	8	$573	935	935	+0	open	—	06-21 16:52
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	7	$559	321	321	+0	open	—	04-26 13:18
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	4	$481	583	583	+0	open	—	06-02 09:46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	2	$467	467	467	+0	open	—	06-06 02:35
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	16	$466	840	840	+0	open	—	06-18 09:42
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	10	$455	829	829	+0	open	—	06-26 04:16
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	4	$448	287	287	+0	open	—	06-12 18:11
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	3	$446	333	333	+0	open	—	06-09 09:25
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	2	$445	253	253	+0	open	—	06-23 15:26
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	4	$444	249	249	+0	open	—	06-09 01:34
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	5	$431	472	472	+0	open	—	06-06 05:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	5	$417	251	251	+0	open	—	06-12 22:50
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	7	$394	761	761	+0	open	—	06-15 19:04
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	2	$359	315	315	+0	open	—	06-24 07:47
will robert macintyre win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$318	162	162	+0	open	—	03-15 22:09
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	4	$318	202	202	+0	open	—	03-18 09:58
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	7	$314	485	485	+0	open	—	04-27 00:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	5	$312	350	350	+0	open	—	06-20 16:27
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$289	149	149	+0	open	—	03-14 09:20
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	3	$289	146	146	+0	open	—	03-16 20:24
will matt fitzpatrick win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$288	147	147	+0	open	—	03-17 12:46
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	2	$288	146	146	+0	open	—	03-21 03:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-26 04:16:08	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	2	3¢	$0	0x1dd1d5…
06-25 15:02:44	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	57	3¢	$2	0x923686…
06-25 15:02:44	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	180	3¢	$6	0x87544d…
06-25 15:02:44	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	197	3¢	$7	0x748ddd…
06-25 15:02:44	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	166	3¢	$6	0x451965…
06-25 12:11:14	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	602	4¢	$25	0xd6e223…
06-24 07:47:20	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	315	58¢	$183	0xa29be1…
06-24 06:15:53	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	315	56¢	$176	0xa3ce94…
06-23 15:26:26	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	SELL	253	88¢	$223	0x803865…
06-23 15:25:40	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	BUY	253	88¢	$223	0x7d024f…
06-22 23:45:47	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	78	3¢	$2	0xb32e72…
06-22 23:45:47	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	230	3¢	$7	0x8ced70…
06-22 21:54:19	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	308	4¢	$12	0x3a46ad…
06-21 16:52:26	israel closes its airspace by july 15	No	SELL	250	90¢	$225	0xd2b99e…
06-21 16:51:41	israel closes its airspace by july 15	No	BUY	250	90¢	$225	0xb2a648…
06-20 23:11:43	israel closes its airspace by july 15	Yes	SELL	177	9¢	$16	0xe58ce1…
06-20 23:11:43	israel closes its airspace by july 15	Yes	SELL	163	9¢	$15	0x52b198…
06-20 23:11:43	israel closes its airspace by july 15	Yes	SELL	47	9¢	$4	0x3d930a…
06-20 23:11:43	israel closes its airspace by july 15	Yes	SELL	214	9¢	$19	0x2fedd8…
06-20 23:11:43	israel closes its airspace by july 15	Yes	SELL	84	9¢	$8	0x2d0926…
06-20 21:12:17	israel closes its airspace by july 15	Yes	BUY	685	9¢	$62	0x59eb78…
06-20 16:27:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	350	44¢	$154	0x302d5a…
06-20 14:22:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x3fd947…
06-20 14:22:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x6321d6…
06-20 14:22:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x639d78…
06-20 14:22:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	335	45¢	$151	0xe1023d…
06-20 01:24:28	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	42	1¢	$0	0xdf89a1…
06-20 01:24:28	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	138	1¢	$1	0x71b204…
06-19 22:46:44	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x9ae27f…
06-19 22:46:44	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	113	1¢	$1	0x98336c…
06-19 16:48:49	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	186	94¢	$174	0xbc0f95…
06-19 16:48:49	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0x7fe36a…
06-19 15:04:25	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	66	94¢	$62	0x566ba5…
06-19 15:04:25	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	135	94¢	$127	0x07e296…
06-18 09:42:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	58	96¢	$56	0xde8935…
06-18 09:42:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	160	96¢	$154	0x29f10a…
06-18 05:10:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	161	96¢	$155	0xfd2e50…
06-18 05:10:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	57	96¢	$55	0x6f7c2e…
06-18 03:32:23	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	33	13¢	$4	0x801b7e…
06-18 03:32:23	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	200	13¢	$26	0x6bba10…
06-18 03:32:23	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	483	13¢	$63	0x515a1f…
06-18 00:06:17	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	716	14¢	$100	0x4170f3…
06-17 20:18:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	87	4¢	$3	0xb2e19d…
06-17 20:18:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	86	4¢	$3	0xf93511…
06-17 20:18:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	4¢	$1	0x85fd44…
06-17 20:18:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	4¢	$2	0x0773e7…
06-17 20:18:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	4¢	$2	0xc7c167…
06-17 20:18:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	54	4¢	$2	0x576a5a…
06-17 20:17:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	4¢	$2	0x68319b…
06-17 20:17:41	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	4¢	$1	0x51f778…
06-17 20:17:23	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	116	4¢	$4	0xc1574f…
06-17 20:17:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	4¢	$1	0xeb1b69…
06-17 20:17:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	4¢	$0	0xb7fffc…
06-17 16:09:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	622	4¢	$23	0x1d5a68…
06-15 19:04:07	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	SELL	576	4¢	$24	0x7f39f5…
06-15 16:38:34	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	576	2¢	$12	0x63c00a…
06-13 19:52:06	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	SELL	72	97¢	$70	0x973e18…
06-13 19:52:06	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	SELL	67	97¢	$65	0x07e2e2…
06-13 19:52:04	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	SELL	46	97¢	$45	0x39641d…
06-13 16:30:30	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xc82bfb…
06-13 16:30:30	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	BUY	165	97¢	$161	0xbf8f80…
06-12 22:50:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	149	83¢	$124	0xdbcfbd…
06-12 22:50:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	102	83¢	$85	0x3c79ef…
06-12 21:25:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	28	84¢	$24	0xd4e78e…
06-12 21:24:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	153	83¢	$127	0xe6c90f…
06-12 21:24:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	70	83¢	$58	0xcf9a77…
06-12 18:11:19	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	219	80¢	$175	0xfb8b93…
06-12 18:11:19	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	60	80¢	$48	0x264171…
06-12 18:11:18	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	8	80¢	$6	0x857cb3…
06-12 17:05:51	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	287	76¢	$218	0xf79011…
06-12 13:12:03	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	176	87¢	$154	0x4d4c21…
06-12 11:05:09	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	51	84¢	$43	0x06a7c3…
06-12 07:59:31	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	46	94¢	$43	0x9ce288…
06-12 07:59:31	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	181	94¢	$170	0x1e63e1…
06-10 21:11:39	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	327	19¢	$62	0xa1ae4b…
06-09 22:05:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	327	19¢	$62	0x962090…
06-09 16:30:45	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	77	74¢	$57	0xe12ebe…
06-09 16:30:45	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	209	74¢	$155	0x81e0f2…
06-09 12:39:04	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	142	78¢	$111	0xa67f6a…
06-09 12:39:04	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	144	78¢	$112	0x2949f9…
06-09 09:25:03	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	333	67¢	$223	0xf4218b…
06-09 06:53:45	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	321	67¢	$215	0xfedbf7…
06-09 06:53:45	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	67¢	$8	0x213fbc…
06-09 01:34:45	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	SELL	121	90¢	$109	0x6b5592…
06-09 01:34:45	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	SELL	128	90¢	$115	0x398716…
06-08 22:21:55	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x8abeb2…
06-08 22:21:15	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	243	88¢	$214	0x9d1d84…
06-08 17:51:51	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	11	77¢	$8	0xee210d…
06-08 17:51:51	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	229	77¢	$176	0xa3e1bc…
06-08 17:51:51	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	45	77¢	$35	0x496ff1…
06-08 15:22:18	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	285	74¢	$211	0x4c8368…
06-07 15:02:22	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	601	4¢	$24	0xea21df…
06-07 14:00:51	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	601	4¢	$23	0x2382af…
06-07 10:27:40	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x82e1ce…
06-07 10:27:33	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	192	5¢	$9	0x92ea13…
06-07 10:27:33	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	449	5¢	$21	0x3ad18b…
06-07 08:06:04	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	642	5¢	$32	0xd817f1…
06-07 02:49:10	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	43	29¢	$12	0xe12ad4…
06-07 02:49:10	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	249	29¢	$72	0x4f2061…
06-07 00:58:06	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	172	29¢	$50	0x02184d…