Legal-Oven — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

61.8%

Resolved

250

Trades

297

lifetime

Volume

$361

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-04-16

last 11-04 20:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 104 days

Categories

Other

61% 56% +$2

Crypto

30% 50% -$7

Politics

4% 25% -$8

Tech

3% 57% -$2

Sports

2% 43% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+1	$1	82¢	$1	$0	06-08 15:05
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+6	$1	10¢	$1	$0	06-08 15:02
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	+2	$1	10¢	$0	-$1	08-18 15:55
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	+1	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	05-21 14:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 22:05 UTC	2	$20	11	10	+0	Down	+$0	04-18 22:10
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	1	$10	10	0	+10	Yes	+$0	06-30 22:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 02:00 UTC	3	$6	4	4	+0	Up	+$2	04-17 02:05
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?	1	$5	8	0	+8	Yes	+$3	07-01 00:49
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	1	$5	6	0	+6	No	-$5	07-01 00:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 01:55 UTC	2	$4	2	2	+0	Up	+$0	04-17 02:00
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on October 16?	2	$4	4	4	+0	No	+$2	10-16 20:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 05:35 UTC	3	$4	5	3	+2	Up	+$0	04-18 05:38
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 3?	2	$4	3	3	+0	Yes	+$2	07-04 03:55
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 17?	2	$3	2	2	+0	Yes	+$1	07-17 22:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 06:00 UTC	2	$3	2	2	+0	Down	+$1	04-18 06:05
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on October 17?	3	$3	5	1	+4	No	-$1	10-16 20:04
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	2	$3	6	0	+6	No	-$3	07-04 22:43
Will France win on 2026-07-09?	2	$3	5	0	+5	Yes	+$2	07-09 20:16
Will France win on 2026-07-04?	2	$3	3	0	+3	Yes	+$0	07-04 22:43
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 3?	2	$3	2	2	+0	Yes	+$1	07-04 03:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 06:35 UTC	2	$3	2	2	+0	Down	+$1	04-18 06:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 01:30 UTC	2	$3	2	2	+0	Down	+$1	04-18 01:35
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on October 6?	2	$2	3	3	+0	Yes	+$0	10-06 20:04
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	06-15 20:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 06:05 UTC	2	$2	2	2	+0	Up	+$0	04-18 06:07
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C or higher on October 16?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	10-16 20:03
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	10-16 20:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 23:15 UTC	2	$2	2	2	+0	Down	+$0	04-18 23:19
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	2	$2	3	3	+0	open	—	07-16 20:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 18:45 UTC	2	$2	1	1	+0	Up	+$0	04-18 18:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 00:35 UTC	2	$2	1	1	+0	Down	+$0	04-17 00:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 06:10 UTC	2	$2	1	1	+0	Up	+$0	04-18 06:12
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	07-16 20:32
FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	07-16 20:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 20:05:10	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on November 5?	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xf39ffb…
11-04 20:05:00	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on November 5?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x5f623d…
11-04 20:04:31	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on November 4?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xccacb6…
11-03 22:37:43	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on November 4?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x5e4760…
10-28 19:52:52	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on October 28?	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x4c4803…
10-21 20:11:03	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on October 23?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x03ea64…
10-20 20:07:32	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x0c373f…
10-20 20:07:23	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xb28429…
10-20 20:07:03	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on October 20?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x1ec273…
10-20 20:06:12	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x2140bc…
10-19 19:59:17	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x583692…
10-19 19:58:54	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xc3ec2e…
10-16 20:04:51	highest temperature in mexico city on october 17 2026 19corhigher	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x13d031…
10-16 20:04:42	highest temperature in mexico city on october 17 2026 18c	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xaa1f3d…
10-16 20:03:53	highest temperature in mexico city on october 17 2026 18c	No	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0x465a53…
10-16 20:03:42	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x43f0da…
10-16 20:03:17	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on October 16?	Yes	SELL	4	78¢	$3	0x5926b4…
10-16 20:03:06	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C or higher on October 16?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xd6abab…
10-15 20:09:38	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on October 17?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x4c93cc…
10-15 20:09:34	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xb71468…
10-15 20:09:23	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 16°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x897176…
10-15 20:08:43	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C or higher on October 16?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xb744d3…
10-15 20:08:38	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xfda877…
10-15 20:08:17	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xa327e2…
10-14 20:09:51	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x168bbf…
10-14 20:09:34	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on October 15?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x5f5982…
10-14 20:09:22	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on October 15?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x41ac48…
10-14 20:08:42	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x781e3a…
10-13 19:50:55	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xadcd4d…
10-13 19:50:33	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x7780fc…
10-12 20:02:05	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x44afb0…
10-08 20:21:38	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x4b5bf6…
10-08 20:21:11	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x9cbece…
10-06 20:05:51	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x776d56…
10-06 20:04:41	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on October 6?	Yes	SELL	3	56¢	$1	0x03aa3b…
10-05 20:08:53	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xf31cf0…
10-02 22:43:11	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x62bcf3…
10-02 22:41:53	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x577c5c…
10-02 22:41:02	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xb97fe8…
10-01 19:43:18	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on October 2?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x0c78d9…
09-30 20:06:26	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x3a0027…
09-28 20:05:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x0c34b9…
09-28 20:05:27	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xac4de7…
09-28 20:04:12	will trump say bitcoin this week 20261004	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x9db5ee…
09-28 20:03:45	will trump say data center this week 20261004	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xd914a2…
09-27 17:15:29	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x7825e8…
09-27 17:15:14	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xa96ba8…
09-27 17:14:54	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x05ab1b…
09-25 20:15:38	Will MrBeast say "GTA" or "Grand Theft Auto" during his next gaming YouTube video?	Yes	BUY	22	4¢	$1	0x3c6a92…
09-25 20:08:29	will trump say ceasefire during his united nations meetings	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x5545df…
09-24 20:10:06	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on September 25?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xce5fcf…
09-24 20:08:14	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on September 24?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x09f29f…
09-22 22:37:08	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on September 23?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xa7fdb8…
09-22 17:54:49	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on September 22?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xb4ae96…
09-15 20:04:22	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x0e550c…
09-14 20:06:07	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x835d6e…
09-11 20:25:43	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on September 11?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x7b171c…
09-10 20:05:54	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on September 10?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x40dd8f…
09-09 18:02:45	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x574bad…
09-04 20:08:39	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xde9776…
09-02 20:39:51	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on September 3?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x3562b5…
08-27 20:12:57	bitcoin up or down on august 28 2026	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x816b3e…
08-27 20:09:54	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x9a0ef9…
08-27 20:08:01	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on August 27?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xdec646…
08-27 20:07:57	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on August 27?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xccc459…
08-27 20:07:52	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 27?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xffc5fe…
08-27 20:07:36	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 27?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x22f515…
08-27 20:07:28	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 27?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xb638d6…
08-27 20:07:15	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on August 27?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xb4875b…
08-27 20:06:42	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x0c7aff…
08-25 20:13:49	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on August 25?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x2c551b…
08-25 20:13:40	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 25?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x5f9aa8…
08-25 20:13:33	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on August 25?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x601a10…
08-25 20:13:27	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 25?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x62c328…
08-25 20:13:19	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 25?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x278f7d…
08-25 20:13:15	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 25?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x8ee4d7…
08-25 20:13:03	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 25?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x3703e6…
08-25 20:12:55	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on August 25?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x3b1fe8…
08-25 20:12:40	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 25?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xc8d38b…
08-25 20:09:18	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xbcb7a2…
08-25 20:09:09	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xfab426…
08-24 20:08:39	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on August 24?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x1729d9…
08-18 16:11:33	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232 846	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x17f223…
08-18 15:55:39	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x15a534…
08-18 15:54:52	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x264eaa…
08-17 23:23:19	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 18?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x8f3fa5…
08-14 20:04:21	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xa8359a…
08-13 18:13:18	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x0c92ff…
08-12 16:18:00	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 12?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xe97479…
08-12 16:16:43	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x6833b0…
08-11 16:24:19	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xf87f9d…
08-10 19:57:31	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xde3036…
08-07 18:07:10	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xc275d6…
08-06 16:05:39	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x821800…
07-31 20:53:02	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x1a0fbb…
07-30 20:51:45	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xa4887d…
07-29 14:09:02	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 29?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x3a15c7…
07-28 16:43:20	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 28?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x2a7a16…
07-28 16:43:04	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x64e704…
07-28 16:42:55	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xa37d49…