Agitated-Examination — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.58K

Unrealized P&L

-$503

Hit rate

66.2%

Resolved

317

Trades

2,076

lifetime

Volume

$39.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

$467

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-02 09:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 79 days

Categories

Politics

36% 73% +$241

Other

30% 52% +$2,058

Crypto

20% 46% -$80

Tech

12% 62% +$316

Pop-Culture

1% 83% +$45

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

49 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+2,019	$757	16¢	$333	-$424	09-18 14:48
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+200	$52	44¢	$87	+$35	09-23 01:02
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+408	$162	12¢	$47	-$115	08-19 18:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	10	$2.3K	1,236	1,236	+0	Yes	+$173	09-22 18:06
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	2	$2.0K	1,600	1,600	+0	Yes	-$16	02-24 08:31
trump approval up or down this week 619	26	$1.9K	4,532	3,297	+1,235	Down	-$500	03-13 20:09
trump approval up or down this week 596	14	$1.6K	2,028	1,102	+926	Down	+$474	03-06 23:41
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	6	$1.5K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	-$40	04-02 18:38
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	8	$1.3K	650	750	-100	No	+$99	04-28 08:49
trump approval up or down this week 394	7	$1.2K	1,180	0	+1,180	Down	+$4	03-28 11:19
Fed rate hike in 2026?	5	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$15	08-10 15:45
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	2	$1.1K	530	530	+0	Yes	+$3	09-22 16:30
trump approval up or down this week 481	24	$1.0K	1,176	572	+604	Up	+$232	02-26 16:15
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?	2	$961	556	556	+0	Yes	-$39	09-24 17:07
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	16	$834	1,008	600	+408	open	—	08-19 18:39
trump approval up or down this week 857	7	$833	1,154	750	+404	Down	+$14	03-21 07:06
will the next gpt sol model 5pt7 debut at a score of at least 1470 by june 30 2027	3	$783	393	393	+0	No	+$3	09-26 16:59
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	36	$775	1,610	1,257	+353	No	+$361	09-09 22:56
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?	15	$757	2,019	0	+2,019	open	—	09-18 14:48
Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	1	$712	774	0	+774	Yes	+$62	10-23 11:23
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	1	$710	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$290	04-02 18:12
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	25	$692	809	809	+0	No	+$465	06-21 09:32
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	5	$675	500	500	+0	Yes	+$323	09-16 18:20
will trumps approval rating be less than 41pt0 on march 13 2026 221	22	$644	1,134	0	+1,134	Yes	+$80	03-14 03:12
trump approval up or down this week 155	21	$643	850	419	+431	Up	+$120	02-20 10:51
Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	6	$637	342	342	+0	Yes	+$47	10-29 06:36
trump approval up or down this week 714	29	$604	1,308	0	+1,308	Down	+$152	02-16 16:56
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	9	$573	1,302	1,296	+5	No	-$63	04-28 13:03
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 3, 2026?	4	$523	1,190	929	+261	Yes	-$521	09-23 21:47
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	2	$511	350	350	+0	Yes	+$21	04-02 18:38
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	7	$503	642	200	+442	Yes	+$15	04-24 04:17
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	14	$501	2,054	2,054	+0	open	—	10-28 17:15
spx opens up or down on february 24 2026	5	$435	500	500	+0	Down	-$15	02-23 23:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 09:58:45	Will Trump say "Burger" in October?	Yes	BUY	139	24¢	$34	0x108ed9…
11-01 12:16:18	Will Trump say "Burger" in October?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$9	0xb773c4…
10-31 22:25:09	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0x4b43ac…
10-31 22:24:04	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	16	26¢	$4	0x95a699…
10-31 22:23:58	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x0b91b8…
10-29 06:36:26	Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	Yes	SELL	342	100¢	$342	0xaf593a…
10-28 17:15:32	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	SELL	1,254	0¢	$4	0x1af9d8…
10-28 17:15:08	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	SELL	800	0¢	$4	0x774b59…
10-28 04:16:50	Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	Yes	BUY	232	86¢	$200	0x1e7b85…
10-28 04:16:44	Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x8a8dd5…
10-28 04:15:59	Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	Yes	BUY	30	86¢	$26	0x8beef7…
10-28 04:15:04	Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	Yes	BUY	25	87¢	$22	0xa16a83…
10-28 04:14:23	Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	Yes	BUY	45	88¢	$39	0x404378…
10-23 11:23:39	Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	Yes	BUY	774	92¢	$712	0x937765…
10-10 02:11:00	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	BUY	12	7¢	$1	0x4e4bf9…
10-09 20:53:49	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	BUY	188	7¢	$13	0x0f0010…
10-02 15:56:27	Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 2?	Yes	BUY	22	97¢	$21	0xefa1c8…
10-02 15:01:09	Will there be exactly 1 Codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of September 28?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xb0bf6b…
10-02 15:01:05	Will there be exactly 1 Codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of September 28?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x9df504…
10-02 15:01:05	Will there be exactly 1 Codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of September 28?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x050f82…
10-02 15:01:05	Will there be exactly 1 Codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of September 28?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x0394c4…
10-02 15:00:59	Will there be exactly 1 Codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of September 28?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x18a0de…
10-02 15:00:54	Will there be exactly 1 Codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of September 28?	No	BUY	63	98¢	$62	0xfab245…
10-02 03:25:05	Will there be exactly 1 Codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of September 28?	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x116aca…
10-02 03:24:03	Will there be exactly 1 Codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of September 28?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xa4d151…
10-01 17:36:30	Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0x5787b1…
10-01 13:05:45	Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 2?	No	SELL	6	43¢	$3	0xbdc801…
09-30 11:32:56	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	BUY	273	27¢	$74	0xfc1cce…
09-30 09:32:24	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	BUY	27	27¢	$7	0x0eb517…
09-30 07:45:56	Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	87¢	$44	0x7546da…
09-30 07:29:39	Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 2?	No	BUY	6	59¢	$4	0xd79011…
09-30 07:26:41	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 2?	Yes	SELL	108	19¢	$21	0x8b748d…
09-29 17:28:30	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 2?	Yes	BUY	104	14¢	$15	0x6876f4…
09-29 17:08:41	OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 29?	No	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0x3dff2b…
09-29 10:04:12	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	BUY	300	29¢	$87	0x1b7665…
09-28 17:32:29	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	60¢	$32	0x6addd9…
09-28 06:52:56	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	BUY	300	29¢	$87	0x6ff365…
09-27 12:25:30	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	67¢	$36	0xf38453…
09-26 18:20:33	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 2?	Yes	BUY	4	9¢	$0	0xaab2a7…
09-26 17:01:30	Will there be exactly 1 Codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of September 21?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xcb5d66…
09-26 17:01:24	Will there be exactly 1 Codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of September 21?	No	BUY	372	88¢	$327	0x94e031…
09-26 16:59:57	will the next gpt sol model 5pt7 debut at a score of at least 1470 by june 30 2027	No	SELL	393	100¢	$393	0x1efbd0…
09-26 15:59:50	will the next claude opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by december 31 2026 20261231	No	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0x708a3b…
09-26 15:26:00	Will the next GPT Luna model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xcde852…
09-26 15:25:14	Will the next GPT Luna model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	9	97¢	$8	0x003c77…
09-26 15:25:03	Will the next GPT Luna model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	206	97¢	$200	0xed2e0b…
09-26 15:11:56	will the next gpt sol model 5pt7 debut at a score of at least 1470 by june 30 2027	No	BUY	143	99¢	$142	0xbd1ded…
09-26 15:11:47	will the next gpt sol model 5pt7 debut at a score of at least 1470 by june 30 2027	No	BUY	250	99¢	$248	0xdcedca…
09-26 04:26:17	Will Trump's approval rating be less than 37.5 on September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x014852…
09-26 04:26:14	Will Trump's approval rating be less than 37.5 on September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xeeed0d…
09-26 03:56:12	Will there be exactly 1 Codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of September 21?	Yes	SELL	31	0¢	$0	0xae0fcb…
09-26 03:45:00	Will there be exactly 1 Codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of September 21?	Yes	SELL	70	0¢	$0	0x5773b5…
09-26 01:55:09	Will there be exactly 1 Codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of September 21?	Yes	SELL	39	1¢	$0	0xe66773…
09-25 19:02:17	Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.5 and 37.9 on September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	21	74¢	$15	0x932bef…
09-25 19:02:00	Will Trump's approval rating be less than 37.5 on September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	75¢	$45	0xb0814b…
09-25 16:21:23	Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x114545…
09-25 16:10:03	Will there be 4 or more Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 21?	No	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0xbf1820…
09-25 10:27:00	Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?	No	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xc19071…
09-25 09:51:14	Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?	No	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x5ab32e…
09-25 02:09:23	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?	Yes	BUY	12	74¢	$9	0x625ef2…
09-25 01:34:12	Will Shadowrocket be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?	No	BUY	91	72¢	$65	0xfa4b67…
09-25 01:32:23	Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xc447ad…
09-25 01:30:57	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?	Yes	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x8572d9…
09-25 01:29:59	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?	Yes	BUY	109	67¢	$73	0xa0ac03…
09-25 01:28:33	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?	No	BUY	82	60¢	$49	0x3ff67b…
09-25 01:27:44	Will play_music_theory be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?	No	BUY	7	63¢	$4	0x167181…
09-24 18:00:47	Will there be exactly 1 Codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of September 21?	Yes	BUY	40	22¢	$9	0x809413…
09-24 17:07:14	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?	Yes	SELL	556	83¢	$461	0xbef841…
09-24 17:05:39	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?	Yes	BUY	556	90¢	$500	0x1bc26b…
09-24 09:39:09	Will play_music_theory be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?	No	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0x34890c…
09-24 07:00:57	Will play_music_theory be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?	No	SELL	112	54¢	$61	0x09be1d…
09-23 21:47:16	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 3, 2026?	No	SELL	929	0¢	$1	0x953cce…
09-23 21:01:22	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	BUY	205	27¢	$55	0x87e3a2…
09-23 19:13:35	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 3, 2026?	No	BUY	178	30¢	$53	0x0197ed…
09-23 18:52:52	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 3, 2026?	No	BUY	480	44¢	$209	0xdb6523…
09-23 18:07:10	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 3, 2026?	No	BUY	532	49¢	$259	0x313fcb…
09-23 16:30:00	Will play_music_theory be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?	No	BUY	34	51¢	$17	0x382a32…
09-23 16:26:49	Will play_music_theory be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?	No	BUY	164	49¢	$81	0x808fdc…
09-23 16:24:57	Will play_music_theory be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?	Yes	SELL	137	51¢	$70	0xa30558…
09-23 16:01:29	Will there be 4 or more Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 21?	No	BUY	106	93¢	$99	0x949df5…
09-23 14:37:34	Will there be exactly 1 Codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of September 21?	Yes	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x055360…
09-23 14:32:56	Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 21?	No	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x8283d3…
09-23 14:23:52	Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 21?	Yes	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0xdb7cd1…
09-23 14:22:18	Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 21?	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x976091…
09-23 10:39:43	Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 21?	No	BUY	25	74¢	$18	0x45d5fd…
09-23 01:02:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	26¢	$52	0xaae2a8…
09-22 18:06:37	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x69f382…
09-22 18:05:30	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$19	0xbe2595…
09-22 18:02:27	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,024	5¢	$51	0xf38322…
09-22 17:59:19	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,216	100¢	$1,215	0xf93d7b…
09-22 17:56:37	Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0x5e8c15…
09-22 17:45:13	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0xb189a9…
09-22 17:45:04	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	92¢	$73	0x451a58…
09-22 17:41:55	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	191	89¢	$171	0x87e24b…
09-22 17:41:28	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	464	89¢	$413	0x3553ff…
09-22 17:41:07	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	142	79¢	$112	0x18d140…
09-22 17:40:58	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	129	77¢	$100	0xaab952…
09-22 17:40:48	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	129	77¢	$100	0x6766f7…
09-22 16:30:25	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	530	100¢	$529	0x5fc737…
09-22 16:29:18	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	530	99¢	$527	0xf42304…