Familiar-Stallion — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$1.40K

Unrealized P&L

+$2.44K

Hit rate

98.7%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

414

603 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$383.0K

$449.5K lifetime

Avg / trade

$745

Open exposure

$53.6K

4 positions

First seen

2026-02-18

last 10-30 18:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 30 days

Categories

Politics

87% 77% -$859

Crypto

9% 0% -$41

Sports

4% 30% +$185

Other

1% 100% +$148

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 37 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+52,049	$47,573	94¢	$48.7K	+$1,093	10-30 00:16
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+5,254	$5,635	94¢	$4.9K	-$723	10-22 01:33
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	+0	-$7	72¢	$0	+$7	10-01 12:32
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+0	-$2,060	94¢	$0	+$2,060	10-11 10:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	26	$93.2K	53,532	48,278	+5,254	open	—	10-22 01:33
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	65	$68.3K	39,003	39,003	+0	Yes	+$459	10-12 23:38
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	53	$55.7K	39,280	39,280	+0	open	—	10-11 10:11
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	21	$47.6K	52,049	0	+52,049	open	—	10-30 00:16
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	9	$39.2K	21,805	21,805	+0	open	—	10-03 01:00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	21	$23.2K	11,738	11,738	+0	Yes	+$137	10-24 22:36
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	20	$18.7K	19,463	0	+19,463	Yes	+$792	10-12 09:40
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	20	$14.0K	11,125	11,125	+0	open	—	10-01 12:32
Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	123	$8.7K	10,640	110	+10,530	open	—	10-30 18:38
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	6	$7.5K	4,632	4,632	+0	No	-$1,336	05-25 23:20
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	3	$6.4K	3,374	3,374	+0	Yes	+$173	10-05 09:38
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	7	$6.2K	3,206	3,206	-0	Yes	+$89	05-25 23:54
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	7	$5.8K	3,021	3,021	-0	No	+$36	05-26 01:34
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	39	$4.9K	7,800	7,800	+0	No	+$1,209	07-12 05:46
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	16	$4.5K	2,863	1,826	+1,037	No	+$99	04-21 20:58
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	13	$4.4K	2,317	2,317	+0	No	+$146	04-22 18:49
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	14	$3.3K	2,259	2,259	+0	open	—	10-09 21:32
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	10	$3.0K	7,800	7,800	+0	No	-$218	07-13 06:09
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$3.0K	1,682	1,848	-167	Yes	+$211	02-25 04:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	4	$2.9K	1,449	1,449	+0	No	+$11	05-13 01:28
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$2.4K	7,800	7,800	+0	Yes	+$702	07-12 11:52
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	3	$2.4K	419	2,285	-1,865	Yes	+$1,672	02-27 05:32
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	12	$2.2K	7,264	7,264	+0	No	+$748	07-12 04:20
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	3	$2.2K	2,202	400	+1,802	Yes	-$1,471	02-25 08:32
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	2	$2.1K	1,255	1,255	+0	Yes	-$63	05-16 01:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	2	$2.0K	1,037	1,037	+0	No	+$37	05-11 20:12
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	2	$2.0K	1,053	1,053	+0	Yes	+$32	05-23 20:42
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?	1	$1.8K	2,106	0	+2,106	Yes	-$1,790	02-27 05:33
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	6	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	-$165	10-25 22:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	5	$1.5K	990	990	+0	No	+$1	04-29 03:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 18:38:52	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0x91c5ac…
10-30 18:08:39	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	37	88¢	$33	0xf95336…
10-30 18:08:39	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x6d645d…
10-30 18:08:33	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	109	88¢	$96	0xb009f8…
10-30 17:53:27	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	13	87¢	$11	0x2b64a8…
10-30 05:19:12	Will Jess Wilson be the next Premier of Victoria?	Yes	BUY	51	88¢	$45	0xb8db5f…
10-30 01:02:46	Will Jess Wilson be the next Premier of Victoria?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xb42d9c…
10-30 00:16:27	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	8,000	93¢	$7,440	0x054268…
10-29 23:52:43	Will Jess Wilson be the next Premier of Victoria?	Yes	BUY	26	86¢	$23	0x7858e3…
10-29 23:27:36	Will Jess Wilson be the next Premier of Victoria?	Yes	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0x07a7b4…
10-29 23:23:45	Will Jess Wilson be the next Premier of Victoria?	Yes	BUY	15	87¢	$13	0x0e9198…
10-29 23:10:07	Will Ben Carroll be the next Premier of Victoria?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xee008f…
10-29 23:06:34	Will Jess Wilson be the next Premier of Victoria?	Yes	BUY	41	85¢	$35	0x7cb179…
10-29 23:05:40	Will Jess Wilson be the next Premier of Victoria?	Yes	BUY	31	77¢	$24	0x6090d8…
10-29 23:05:06	Will Jess Wilson be the next Premier of Victoria?	Yes	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x71de70…
10-29 00:50:14	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	128	88¢	$113	0xfc75c3…
10-29 00:28:14	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0x16cdd7…
10-28 23:51:44	Will Labor win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	No	BUY	968	89¢	$862	0xd29ffe…
10-28 18:22:44	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	250	89¢	$222	0xfa65f9…
10-28 18:22:31	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	80	88¢	$70	0x63714b…
10-28 18:21:46	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	13	87¢	$11	0x380c5e…
10-28 18:20:58	Will Labor win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	No	BUY	215	91¢	$196	0x7086a7…
10-28 18:20:38	Will Ben Carroll be the next Premier of Victoria?	No	BUY	108	90¢	$98	0x89ec7a…
10-28 08:40:22	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	60	85¢	$51	0xcc8938…
10-28 07:39:07	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	185	85¢	$157	0x18c922…
10-28 05:58:56	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	150	84¢	$126	0x72fb2b…
10-28 05:10:56	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	263	84¢	$221	0x037911…
10-27 08:40:42	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	483	84¢	$406	0xb12432…
10-27 08:40:05	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	88	83¢	$73	0xc9aabc…
10-27 07:29:12	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	234	83¢	$194	0x4ac7a4…
10-27 07:04:23	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	150	83¢	$124	0xc32af8…
10-27 06:32:56	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0x04cc9f…
10-27 05:37:51	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xda0eb0…
10-27 05:20:45	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0xaf4ecb…
10-27 05:20:38	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	87	82¢	$71	0x06f376…
10-27 05:11:06	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	141	81¢	$114	0x9a89ed…
10-27 05:10:53	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	142	81¢	$115	0x2144a3…
10-27 04:38:38	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	85	82¢	$70	0x255d6a…
10-27 04:36:56	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	84	82¢	$69	0x545913…
10-27 04:11:00	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	51	82¢	$42	0xc35519…
10-27 04:08:57	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	170	81¢	$138	0x2abf78…
10-27 00:52:54	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x6ac16e…
10-27 00:47:36	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0xea0d4e…
10-27 00:47:08	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	91	82¢	$75	0xf686da…
10-27 00:15:41	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0x23d67c…
10-26 20:48:08	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xb4cee8…
10-26 20:47:56	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x5425b1…
10-26 20:47:47	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	85	83¢	$71	0x076c5f…
10-26 07:09:23	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	424	82¢	$348	0x0a9bcc…
10-26 06:39:39	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	124	82¢	$102	0xcbbaa8…
10-26 05:25:06	Will Jess Wilson be the next Premier of Victoria?	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x4d540c…
10-26 05:25:05	Will Jess Wilson be the next Premier of Victoria?	Yes	BUY	284	85¢	$242	0x9604cb…
10-26 04:56:45	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	84	85¢	$71	0xd9ae14…
10-26 04:56:36	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	77	85¢	$65	0xa3ab32…
10-26 03:56:00	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	9	85¢	$8	0x8ea0e7…
10-26 03:55:51	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	15	85¢	$13	0x8cf835…
10-26 03:55:44	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	172	85¢	$146	0xc5ad61…
10-26 03:55:35	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	173	85¢	$147	0x0b4a6a…
10-26 03:55:18	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	85	86¢	$73	0x80a73e…
10-26 03:55:02	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x160365…
10-26 03:54:51	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	21	86¢	$18	0xd201a6…
10-26 03:54:51	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	14	86¢	$12	0x8ccb71…
10-26 01:41:17	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	44	84¢	$37	0xfe5b11…
10-26 00:05:54	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0x76a072…
10-25 23:16:09	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	205	85¢	$174	0xb42270…
10-25 22:54:32	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,310	92¢	$1,205	0xc204d4…
10-25 22:54:21	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	690	92¢	$635	0x3e52a1…
10-25 22:37:15	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	112	84¢	$94	0xb9e5e4…
10-25 22:37:09	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	127	84¢	$107	0x05f228…
10-25 22:37:00	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	124	84¢	$104	0xdd848b…
10-25 22:33:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,000	70¢	$705	0x124905…
10-25 22:26:05	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xa3df3c…
10-25 22:26:05	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	500	87¢	$435	0x93949a…
10-25 22:26:05	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x6beb89…
10-25 22:26:05	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0x4df4ab…
10-25 22:26:05	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0x17f8b9…
10-25 20:41:09	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	60	82¢	$49	0x5007bf…
10-25 20:40:59	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	60	82¢	$49	0xd538a4…
10-25 20:40:57	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	60	82¢	$49	0x6a2973…
10-25 18:53:03	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	74	82¢	$61	0x008946…
10-25 18:52:56	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	232	82¢	$190	0x42945c…
10-25 18:52:48	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	68	82¢	$56	0x56337e…
10-25 18:52:38	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	355	83¢	$294	0x3025c3…
10-25 08:05:14	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x3f9e62…
10-25 07:56:32	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	45	80¢	$36	0xfc8bbe…
10-25 02:16:18	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	437	79¢	$345	0xf594b8…
10-24 22:36:35	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	9,848	100¢	$9,819	0xd8a2c0…
10-24 11:32:21	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	65	80¢	$52	0xe64db0…
10-24 09:20:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	800	99¢	$792	0x258732…
10-24 09:12:42	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	106	80¢	$85	0xd4d472…
10-24 07:21:59	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0xc9a08e…
10-24 07:18:50	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0x092757…
10-24 05:31:33	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0xb550c3…
10-24 05:30:00	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	50	81¢	$41	0xded44f…
10-24 03:22:03	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	44	80¢	$35	0xe9c89d…
10-24 03:21:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	300	98¢	$296	0x6adf72…
10-24 02:18:06	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xb67f69…
10-24 02:16:20	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	23	80¢	$18	0x4c0c9d…
10-24 02:15:59	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	82	80¢	$66	0x28333a…
10-24 02:14:00	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	BUY	39	80¢	$31	0xc08c1e…