Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$102

Unrealized P&L

-$34

Hit rate

81.1%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.17K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

$118

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 10-07 09:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 31 days

Categories

Politics

58% 50% +$62

Other

37% 62% +$31

Tech

3% 100% +$5

Crypto

2% 67% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+64	$50	90¢	$57	+$7	10-02 19:43
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+61	$52	92¢	$56	+$4	10-07 09:00
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	+111	$10	2¢	$3	-$7	10-02 19:24
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+70	$20	3¢	$2	-$18	10-02 19:38
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+95	$20	1¢	$1	-$19	10-02 19:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$117	62	62	+0	Yes	-$3	02-28 08:03
will the us collect between 200b and 500b in revenue in 2025	2	$107	60	60	+0	No	+$7	02-18 07:30
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	1	$80	82	0	+82	No	+$2	01-23 17:58
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	1	$75	83	0	+83	No	+$8	05-14 17:42
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	1	$73	80	0	+80	No	+$7	05-18 07:37
ukraine hits moscow by january 15	1	$56	59	0	+59	No	+$3	01-07 17:33
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	1	$52	61	0	+61	open	—	10-07 09:00
will israel strike gaza on february 18 2026	2	$51	32	32	+0	No	+$11	02-20 08:27
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	1	$50	64	0	+64	open	—	10-02 19:43
will crude oil cl hit high 80 by end of march 113 384 528 915 639 242 637	1	$50	61	0	+61	Yes	+$11	03-03 16:57
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	2	$44	36	36	+0	No	+$24	05-22 22:14
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by November 15?	1	$40	50	0	+50	Yes	+$10	10-02 19:53
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 4 844 575	1	$40	45	0	+45	No	+$5	03-03 16:58
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	1	$30	33	0	+33	No	+$3	01-05 16:05
will trump say europe or european during the state of the union address	1	$30	36	0	+36	Yes	+$6	02-20 08:43
gemini 4pt0 released by october 31 2026	1	$25	30	0	+30	Yes	+$5	10-02 19:33
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	2	$20	17	17	+0	Yes	+$10	03-09 15:11
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	1	$20	70	0	+70	open	—	10-02 19:38
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	1	$20	95	0	+95	open	—	10-02 19:38
nothing ever happens january 581	1	$20	32	0	+32	No	-$20	01-24 18:15
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	1	$20	21	0	+21	Yes	+$1	01-31 12:01
another us strike on venezuela by january 10	1	$20	21	0	+21	No	+$1	01-05 16:04
will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831	2	$19	14	14	+0	Yes	+$9	02-02 21:23
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	1	$15	44	0	+44	No	-$15	03-01 14:42
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	1	$10	111	0	+111	open	—	10-02 19:24
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1	$10	50	0	+50	Yes	+$40	02-18 07:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-18 07:40 UTC	1	$10	14	0	+14	Up	+$4	02-18 07:43
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$10	14	0	+14	Yes	+$4	02-18 07:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-18 07:45 UTC	1	$10	14	0	+14	Up	+$4	02-18 07:46
maduro mugshot released by january 16	1	$5	42	0	+42	No	-$5	01-07 17:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-07 09:00:48	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	61	85¢	$52	0x752565…
10-02 19:53:32	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by November 15?	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x79fc16…
10-02 19:43:17	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0xdc86f8…
10-02 19:41:00	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x2c2b1e…
10-02 19:38:15	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	70	29¢	$20	0xd91bf3…
10-02 19:38:06	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	95	21¢	$20	0x52e56a…
10-02 19:33:05	gemini 4pt0 released by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x8d90e7…
10-02 19:24:03	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x677f7a…
05-22 22:18:37	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	35	9¢	$3	0x4849dc…
05-22 22:14:58	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	36	96¢	$34	0x05dbd1…
05-18 07:37:30	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	80	91¢	$73	0x4c511b…
05-18 07:35:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0xfa7af8…
05-14 17:42:58	Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	83	90¢	$75	0x593d16…
03-17 07:17:57	highest temperature in munich on march 18 2026 10c	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xb99ce4…
03-17 07:13:41	will trump say tariff 5 times during taoiseach events	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x09ca0e…
03-17 07:11:49	will trump say president xi this week march 22	Yes	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x91e369…
03-17 07:10:41	will trump say finish the job this week march 22	Yes	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x1f82ab…
03-17 07:08:57	will trump say coward in march	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x952369…
03-17 07:08:41	will trump say liberation day in march	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x00fb86…
03-17 07:06:57	will mrbeast say subscribe during his next video 268	Yes	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x15a10b…
03-09 15:11:53	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	17	93¢	$15	0x39f6da…
03-06 16:05:13	US strike on Cuba by March 31?	Yes	BUY	34	6¢	$2	0x288294…
03-06 06:58:17	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	13	31¢	$4	0x827cb8…
03-03 16:58:53	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 4 844 575	No	BUY	45	89¢	$40	0x9bb1c7…
03-03 16:57:57	will crude oil cl hit high 80 by end of march 113 384 528 915 639 242 637	Yes	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0x269765…
03-03 16:55:05	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x5dba4d…
03-01 14:42:57	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	Yes	BUY	44	34¢	$15	0x2be6c4…
02-28 08:03:05	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	SELL	62	92¢	$57	0xd20143…
02-20 08:43:56	will trump say europe or european during the state of the union address	Yes	BUY	36	84¢	$30	0x3e2715…
02-20 08:38:28	will israel strike lebanon on february 21 2026	Yes	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xe4c409…
02-20 08:28:48	us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	Yes	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0xf01927…
02-20 08:27:12	will israel strike gaza on february 18 2026	No	SELL	32	99¢	$31	0xe9b2f9…
02-18 08:00:36	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	62	96¢	$60	0x458d22…
02-18 07:58:28	will israel strike gaza on february 18 2026	No	BUY	32	63¢	$20	0xf41068…
02-18 07:57:20	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x851442…
02-18 07:51:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-18 07:50 UTC	Up	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x78dbf9…
02-18 07:46:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-18 07:45 UTC	Up	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x38713c…
02-18 07:43:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-18 07:40 UTC	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x24aab5…
02-18 07:32:06	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x4b34f9…
02-18 07:30:16	will the us collect between 200b and 500b in revenue in 2025	No	SELL	60	95¢	$57	0xa84a03…
02-02 21:27:30	will the us collect between 200b and 500b in revenue in 2025	No	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x2c32ff…
02-02 21:23:12	will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x3fb379…
01-31 12:01:12	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	Yes	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x6de53b…
01-31 11:56:06	us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xe69070…
01-31 11:54:10	will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xd51371…
01-24 18:15:24	nothing ever happens january 581	Yes	BUY	32	63¢	$20	0xff7178…
01-23 17:58:16	us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	No	BUY	82	97¢	$80	0x76587e…
01-07 17:33:33	ukraine hits moscow by january 15	No	BUY	59	95¢	$56	0x79c4a6…
01-07 17:27:37	maduro mugshot released by january 16	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x808944…
01-05 16:05:35	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	No	BUY	33	90¢	$30	0x9289ae…
01-05 16:04:43	another us strike on venezuela by january 10	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x98be59…