Ideal-Asphalt — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.81K

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

84.1%

Resolved

508

Trades

1,335

lifetime

Volume

$176.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$132

Open exposure

$195

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-28 22:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 164 days

Categories

Other

59% 86% +$1,589

Politics

30% 84% +$794

Sports

6% 80% +$159

Crypto

5% 97% +$253

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$18

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+202	$157	94¢	$191	+$33	05-10 07:24
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-50	-$21	8¢	$-4	+$17	05-16 20:25
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	+7	$5	4¢	$0	-$5	07-06 22:29
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	+0	$55	56¢	$0	-$55	06-04 11:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	5	$4.2K	2,134	2,134	+0	No	+$37	06-12 01:16
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	7	$3.6K	1,947	1,947	+0	No	-$134	05-29 19:13
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	8	$2.9K	3,088	88	+3,000	Yes	+$235	06-02 12:36
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	5	$2.8K	2,834	0	+2,834	Yes	+$30	08-18 19:24
will trump say crypto or bitcoin during address to the nation	4	$2.6K	2,690	0	+2,690	No	+$81	04-01 15:41
Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	8	$2.3K	1,359	1,000	+359	Yes	+$6	05-14 20:36
Will Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	24	$2.1K	2,267	0	+2,267	Yes	+$211	05-12 19:34
will trump say crypto or bitcoin first during the 2026 state of the union address 238	5	$2.0K	1,016	1,016	+0	No	+$10	02-25 02:55
Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?	1	$2.0K	2,030	0	+2,030	Yes	+$45	08-04 19:58
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	6	$1.9K	1,022	1,002	+20	No	+$10	07-12 03:42
fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 total 0pt5	4	$1.9K	2,001	0	+2,001	Over	+$89	07-04 20:57
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	2	$1.9K	2,000	0	+2,000	No	+$110	10-26 23:48
will the virginia redistricting referendum pass	11	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$106	04-22 00:03
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	30	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	-$104	08-12 01:14
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	3	$1.8K	2,008	0	+2,008	No	+$226	09-16 00:45
fifwc col cdr 2026 06 23 total 0pt5	5	$1.6K	1,002	1,002	+0	Over	-$201	06-24 03:22
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	5	$1.6K	1,679	0	+1,679	Yes	+$50	06-07 15:10
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	3	$1.6K	1,597	0	+1,597	No	+$8	05-19 23:49
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	8	$1.5K	904	904	+0	No	+$58	06-03 03:28
Will Poland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	14	$1.5K	1,836	0	+1,836	No	+$314	05-16 21:50
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	4	$1.5K	1,500	0	+1,500	No	+$30	03-05 11:10
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	3	$1.4K	1,501	0	+1,501	No	+$68	05-25 18:29
fifwc pan hrv 2026 06 23 total 0pt5	2	$1.3K	1,002	500	+502	Over	-$60	06-23 23:49
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	8	$1.3K	700	700	+0	No	+$24	06-16 23:55
Will Italy be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	2	$1.3K	703	703	+0	No	-$14	05-16 21:33
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	15	$1.2K	800	800	+0	Yes	-$353	04-15 18:05
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	5	$1.2K	800	600	+200	No	+$9	03-23 12:15
will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	4	$1.2K	1,200	0	+1,200	Yes	+$48	07-07 05:09
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	12	$1.1K	731	631	+100	Yes	-$40	06-06 04:43
fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	4	$1.0K	1,051	50	+1,001	France	+$45	07-09 21:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 22:23:44	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	50	49¢	$24	0xb7c7b4…
10-27 20:14:38	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0xa5d28c…
10-27 20:10:51	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	300	71¢	$213	0x3eebd5…
10-27 15:26:12	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	300	78¢	$234	0x1ce6e0…
10-26 23:48:38	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,000	94¢	$940	0x470452…
10-26 01:18:20	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,000	95¢	$950	0x59a772…
10-12 01:54:54	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	500	96¢	$478	0xc4c907…
10-04 22:48:07	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	205	17¢	$34	0x10d28b…
09-30 02:14:45	Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race?	No	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x41434c…
09-26 01:52:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	No	BUY	499	99¢	$494	0x0a3a92…
09-26 01:19:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6e25e1…
09-26 01:14:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xd56c3e…
09-26 01:13:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x07d17e…
09-24 00:54:34	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	205	42¢	$86	0xdf39de…
09-20 03:54:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	300	99¢	$297	0xee885c…
09-19 16:01:47	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	95	98¢	$93	0xb47326…
09-18 14:20:53	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x80b872…
09-18 14:15:02	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xce17cd…
09-16 00:45:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	503	89¢	$447	0x995e93…
09-15 20:51:18	will wti reach 130 in september 2026	No	SELL	162	92¢	$150	0xbe3f6d…
09-15 20:28:45	will wti reach 130 in september 2026	No	SELL	19	92¢	$18	0xbca8d6…
09-15 20:28:39	will wti reach 130 in september 2026	No	SELL	119	92¢	$110	0x05fb6e…
09-15 17:52:45	will wti reach 140 in september 2026	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xda9b9c…
09-15 14:07:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	500	88¢	$440	0x8bce32…
09-15 14:01:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,006	89¢	$895	0x6bf7ce…
09-12 22:10:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$195	0xa6fda3…
09-09 02:41:03	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	67	97¢	$65	0x5a440a…
09-09 00:22:25	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x1e6394…
09-09 00:21:39	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0xaf5e81…
09-09 00:07:31	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x4d77f3…
09-08 23:16:42	Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?	No	BUY	500	96¢	$480	0xf060f7…
09-07 22:29:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?	No	BUY	300	98¢	$294	0x9f69aa…
09-07 06:21:06	Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	BUY	101	58¢	$59	0x37b41a…
09-07 06:07:46	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x5f767e…
09-07 06:07:18	Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$496	0x489efd…
09-07 06:06:37	Will Alexander Blockx win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$495	0x81fc91…
09-07 06:05:46	Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	301	95¢	$286	0x0ce5f2…
09-01 17:15:42	Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder?	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0x589214…
09-01 16:25:45	Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x5293c9…
09-01 16:25:04	Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder?	No	BUY	101	83¢	$83	0xba2799…
08-27 06:18:42	Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	BUY	400	98¢	$391	0x94c81b…
08-26 02:38:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$497	0x644c4e…
08-26 02:37:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?	No	BUY	372	99¢	$368	0x1d36a6…
08-22 03:24:00	will wti dip to 65 in august 2026	No	BUY	164	99¢	$163	0xfcd4d2…
08-22 03:23:34	will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x80db45…
08-22 03:23:00	Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	101	77¢	$78	0x320aaa…
08-18 19:24:57	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	833	99¢	$826	0x3c809a…
08-17 01:30:07	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	192	99¢	$190	0xd88b7b…
08-17 01:29:55	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	308	99¢	$304	0x428658…
08-16 21:52:27	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	500	99¢	$495	0x9fcc7f…
08-16 21:48:34	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	1,000	99¢	$989	0x5b6be0…
08-12 02:06:21	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	SELL	504	64¢	$323	0xcead50…
08-12 01:57:19	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	504	78¢	$392	0xc367cc…
08-12 01:54:19	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	SELL	60	63¢	$38	0x1af602…
08-12 01:53:40	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	SELL	41	66¢	$27	0x1bb48d…
08-12 01:47:54	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	102	60¢	$61	0xdb4705…
08-12 01:34:58	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	SELL	103	60¢	$62	0xdbb66f…
08-12 01:17:37	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	103	16¢	$17	0x765d8a…
08-12 01:14:03	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	SELL	1,000	85¢	$850	0x1d4bb4…
08-11 19:07:57	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	23	95¢	$22	0x9cf863…
08-11 19:07:28	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0x7ea9cd…
08-11 19:07:27	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x5f8229…
08-11 19:07:03	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x2285ce…
08-11 19:07:01	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0x11ce9c…
08-11 19:07:00	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0x6d56ce…
08-11 19:06:57	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xc6c627…
08-11 19:06:27	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x8b4bfc…
08-11 19:06:25	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xe4acd8…
08-11 19:05:57	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0xa1dd59…
08-11 19:05:55	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xa3f070…
08-11 19:05:55	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x2e8515…
08-11 19:05:54	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xecb24a…
08-11 19:05:45	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xd70ef3…
08-11 19:05:27	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xe3a7c5…
08-11 19:05:24	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xf550d3…
08-11 19:05:24	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x8ebf66…
08-11 19:05:22	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xb24e52…
08-11 19:05:22	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x942e3f…
08-11 19:05:22	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x58ced8…
08-11 19:05:22	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x12f0fc…
08-11 18:59:48	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xb8c994…
08-11 18:59:18	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0x6d6f45…
08-11 18:59:06	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xb984db…
08-11 18:55:13	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0x1541cf…
08-11 18:52:42	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0x400bb0…
08-11 18:51:24	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xcf16cb…
08-11 18:49:16	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xb71035…
08-11 18:46:22	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0x659970…
08-10 03:42:43	nothing ever happens august 20260731190455728	Nothing	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0xe5a6f3…
08-10 03:42:25	will wti reach 110 in august 2026	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x826c45…
08-10 03:42:09	will wti dip to 60 in august 2026	No	BUY	300	96¢	$290	0xb361ed…
08-04 20:00:18	Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	204	98¢	$200	0xe86af0…
08-04 19:58:26	Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	2,030	98¢	$1,985	0x61cd74…
08-04 19:56:50	Will Philip Sarnecki win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	800	99¢	$791	0x72d28b…
08-04 19:49:33	Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	300	99¢	$296	0xa0e958…
07-31 00:51:32	will ukraine target moscow by august 31 2026 20260727233336449	Yes	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0x8d1260…
07-28 15:50:20	will wti dip to 75 in july 2026 from july 20	No	SELL	300	66¢	$198	0xcd483c…
07-23 15:33:42	will wti dip to 75 in july 2026 from july 20	No	BUY	300	95¢	$285	0x636b39…
07-23 15:29:57	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x9be9cc…
07-23 15:26:07	will wti reach 120 in july 2026	No	BUY	200	95¢	$191	0xeee72a…