Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$21

Unrealized P&L

+$8

Hit rate

33.2%

Resolved

Trades

205

lifetime

Volume

$1.66K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$80

4 positions

First seen

2026-09-02

last 10-16 07:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Other

66% 25% -$31

Tech

17% 50% +$5

Crypto

10% 33% +$36

Politics

4% 100% +$11

Pop-Culture

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+60	$30	99¢	$59	+$29	09-27 16:01
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	+20	$18	99¢	$20	+$2	09-13 19:06
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	No	+60	$23	1¢	$1	-$22	09-13 14:14
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+20	$1	1¢	$0	-$1	09-28 00:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	12	$79	140	20	+120	open	—	09-27 16:01
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?	6	$64	100	20	+80	open	—	10-02 04:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	6	$59	100	0	+100	Up	+$41	09-03 15:22
Will The Black Ball win Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	2	$55	40	40	+0	open	—	10-16 07:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	6	$53	150	0	+150	Up	-$4	09-02 20:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	9	$51	100	0	+100	Down	-$1	09-02 21:08
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	2	$48	40	40	+0	open	—	09-28 01:04
Will Drake release a new album by December 31?	5	$45	60	20	+40	open	—	10-02 04:48
Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?	3	$43	40	40	+0	open	—	10-16 07:50
Will UK annual inflation be between 3.4% and 3.6% in September?	4	$42	40	40	+0	Yes	-$3	10-04 08:57
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?	4	$38	60	20	+40	open	—	10-02 22:30
Will Wildwood win Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	3	$38	80	0	+80	open	—	09-28 10:47
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	2	$37	40	40	+0	Yes	-$8	09-26 23:43
Will Seattle have between 1 and 1.5 inches of precipitation in September?	4	$37	69	0	+69	No	-$8	09-14 19:38
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?	5	$35	60	20	+40	Yes	-$6	10-05 02:23
Will Wagner Moura rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2026?	2	$35	20	20	+0	open	—	10-16 07:50
Will it snow in Detroit, MI by November 15?	3	$34	20	20	+0	open	—	09-27 00:50
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?	3	$34	25	25	+0	open	—	10-16 07:50
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of November 2026?	2	$32	20	20	+0	open	—	10-16 07:50
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MA-03 House election by 30%-35%?	2	$32	20	20	+0	open	—	09-27 17:57
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026?	3	$31	20	20	+0	open	—	09-29 12:54
Will Claude Opus's output price be at or above $30 in 2026?	3	$31	20	20	+0	open	—	10-16 07:50
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on October 31, 2026?	5	$29	60	20	+40	open	—	10-04 09:38
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	4	$29	40	20	+20	No	+$7	10-04 01:26
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	5	$28	60	20	+40	open	—	09-28 00:59
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027?	4	$27	54	16	+38	open	—	10-16 07:51
Will "The Social Reckoning" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	4	$26	60	20	+40	open	—	10-02 08:27
Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be at least $2.25T at the end of October 2026?	2	$26	20	20	+0	open	—	10-16 07:50
Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or above $55 in 2026?	2	$25	40	40	+0	open	—	10-16 07:51
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?	3	$24	20	20	+0	open	—	10-16 07:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-16 07:51:24	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or above $75 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	10¢	$1	0x885f7c…
10-16 07:51:22	Will the US federal government take a stake in Palantir Technologies Inc.?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x7a718c…
10-16 07:51:21	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Yes	SELL	16	8¢	$1	0x10fa6b…
10-16 07:51:19	Will Tony Pollard have 5.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0xee2a86…
10-16 07:51:16	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x6106aa…
10-16 07:51:15	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 31M tonnes at end of November 2026?	No	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0xc10fa3…
10-16 07:51:13	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	16	20¢	$3	0xa3a241…
10-16 07:51:12	Will Iceland participate in Eurovision 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x17b37c…
10-16 07:51:10	Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $25 in 2026?	No	SELL	14	29¢	$4	0xbfc126…
10-16 07:51:09	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x7430c7…
10-16 07:51:06	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of December 2026?	No	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x232263…
10-16 07:51:04	Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x78e315…
10-16 07:51:03	Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?	No	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0xb018a2…
10-16 07:51:01	Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0xf02b06…
10-16 07:51:00	Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or above $55 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	16¢	$7	0xc86084…
10-16 07:50:58	Will Bad Bunny be featured on GTA VI: The Album?	No	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0xcb780d…
10-16 07:50:57	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	14	74¢	$10	0x54ca31…
10-16 07:50:55	Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	17	79¢	$14	0x6ac5da…
10-16 07:50:54	Will Claude Opus's output price be at or above $30 in 2026?	No	SELL	20	73¢	$14	0x1c5606…
10-16 07:50:52	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0x52b83d…
10-16 07:50:51	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be at least $2.25T at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0x1e6080…
10-16 07:50:48	Will Wagner Moura rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2026?	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0xf76210…
10-16 07:50:46	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?	No	SELL	40	42¢	$17	0x82016c…
10-16 07:50:45	Will The Black Ball win Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	40	71¢	$28	0x28e2e6…
10-09 14:00:37	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 31M tonnes at end of November 2026?	No	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x85e958…
10-09 10:55:37	Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or below $30 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0xa802de…
10-09 08:37:12	Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or below $30 in 2026?	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x0d2f0c…
10-09 08:15:49	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be at least $2.25T at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0xab41ce…
10-09 00:58:21	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xb04da4…
10-07 01:37:29	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 36M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	15¢	$2	0x49c91d…
10-07 01:36:23	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 36M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xd93581…
10-06 23:48:41	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 36M tonnes at end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x08dadd…
10-06 20:13:26	Will Claude Opus's output price be at or above $30 in 2026?	No	BUY	9	85¢	$8	0x292ad2…
10-06 17:39:08	Will Claude Opus's output price be at or above $30 in 2026?	No	BUY	11	85¢	$9	0x103edd…
10-06 14:45:09	Will Bad Bunny be featured on GTA VI: The Album?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xfac8a8…
10-06 14:12:05	Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x640f0e…
10-06 12:16:31	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?	No	BUY	39	65¢	$25	0x1218aa…
10-06 10:59:37	Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or above $55 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	45¢	$18	0xc7a2fd…
10-06 10:19:28	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	0	70¢	$0	0xe7896b…
10-06 07:48:36	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?	No	BUY	1	65¢	$1	0xd71918…
10-06 07:48:33	Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $25 in 2026?	No	BUY	14	29¢	$4	0x495d05…
10-05 20:59:05	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or above $75 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x5a0520…
10-05 18:36:23	will eu emergency diesel stocks be at least 32m tonnes at end of december 2026	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xa2b8ea…
10-05 08:57:16	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	Yes	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x4f5b4e…
10-05 06:10:53	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0x0651b4…
10-05 02:23:16	Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x0c6550…
10-04 22:47:19	Will McKenna Grace be the live-action Gwen Stacy?	No	BUY	18	87¢	$16	0x58c36f…
10-04 22:38:14	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%?	No	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0xb7d301…
10-04 16:30:23	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x30e508…
10-04 09:38:28	Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0xc5020a…
10-04 08:57:10	Will UK annual inflation be between 3.4% and 3.6% in September?	Yes	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x62bb74…
10-04 07:39:46	Will UK annual inflation be between 3.4% and 3.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0xd347fe…
10-04 04:09:56	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xf19f76…
10-04 01:26:11	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x50770b…
10-04 00:00:19	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	Yes	SELL	6	38¢	$2	0x9c1e79…
10-03 23:35:25	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	Yes	SELL	14	38¢	$5	0x34f31c…
10-03 23:22:52	Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?	No	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x5b1f49…
10-03 23:18:43	Will UK annual inflation be between 3.4% and 3.6% in September?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x3fab54…
10-03 22:51:59	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x411501…
10-03 20:18:10	Will UK annual inflation be between 3.4% and 3.6% in September?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x81ffd2…
10-03 09:39:54	Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	27¢	$4	0x813272…
10-03 09:04:30	Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x70e4d9…
10-03 00:19:39	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Yes	SELL	4	14¢	$1	0x7e7d25…
10-02 22:30:12	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x1f6480…
10-02 08:27:09	Will "The Social Reckoning" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x110836…
10-02 04:48:36	Will Drake release a new album by December 31?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xcd7c85…
10-02 04:48:35	Will Drake release a new album by December 31?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x6f650e…
10-02 04:40:24	Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x8ff357…
10-02 00:48:00	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	16	33¢	$5	0x5e313f…
10-01 19:13:02	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x16db89…
10-01 17:17:17	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	19	36¢	$7	0x72fac2…
10-01 15:14:53	Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0x38e6b3…
10-01 14:10:06	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027?	No	BUY	19	62¢	$12	0x962b2c…
10-01 11:10:06	Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?	No	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0x72f729…
10-01 11:10:05	Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?	No	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0x2cf8ef…
10-01 03:07:06	Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x8b49c4…
10-01 01:38:29	Next DeepSeek Pro released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x557fb6…
10-01 01:28:15	Will Drake release a new album by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x762b27…
09-30 23:31:54	Will Drake release a new album by December 31?	No	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0xf1014a…
09-30 18:48:26	Next DeepSeek Pro released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x67d3cb…
09-30 15:59:05	Will Drake release a new album by December 31?	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x1fda72…
09-30 14:05:59	Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0xbb755b…
09-30 12:40:20	Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0xc5941e…
09-30 12:30:51	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xc7687f…
09-30 09:47:14	Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x14e6a4…
09-30 06:31:18	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0xc97a8d…
09-30 02:25:20	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xfc58b2…
09-29 15:51:50	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.10% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x899a30…
09-29 15:39:57	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?	No	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x27d2ea…
09-29 15:30:26	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xf4a2b9…
09-29 15:05:33	Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?	No	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0x8ee94b…
09-29 12:54:18	Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	78¢	$8	0x7ab18b…
09-29 12:35:39	Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	78¢	$8	0x5ff9b3…
09-29 05:22:11	Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	8	64¢	$5	0x904f16…
09-28 23:14:38	Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x540814…
09-28 21:30:35	Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $340,000 and $345,000 on September 30?	No	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0xaae015…
09-28 21:16:39	Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $340,000 and $345,000 on September 30?	No	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0x8832bd…
09-28 15:03:12	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x52bdb1…
09-28 15:03:12	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x31a79b…
09-28 15:02:48	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0xd8f3ee…