Necessary-Elderberry — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$35

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

400

lifetime

Volume

$10.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

$13

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-25

last 06-26 10:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

58% 100% +$0

Other

42% 100% +$35

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?	Yes		+38	$7	29¢	$11	+$4	06-26 10:10
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes		+40	$4	6¢	$3	$-1	06-26 10:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	19	$1.4K	855	855	+0	open	—	04-29 14:19
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	21	$1.3K	1,014	805	+209	open	—	04-03 23:30
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	19	$890	573	573	+0	open	—	04-21 16:00
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	9	$733	3,149	3,149	+0	open	—	05-18 04:24
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	29	$490	489	395	+94	open	—	04-16 18:49
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$374	418	269	+149	open	—	05-18 04:24
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	7	$362	254	165	+90	open	—	03-30 00:20
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	10	$348	420	420	+0	open	—	04-17 23:00
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	7	$308	171	170	+0	open	—	04-25 17:42
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	12	$232	338	274	+63	Yes	+$35	04-28 13:40
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	8	$230	257	201	+55	open	—	04-07 22:09
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	2	$227	228	0	+228	open	—	04-28 14:44
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	6	$216	142	105	+38	open	—	04-21 05:55
Iran leadership change by May 31?	14	$203	587	587	+0	open	—	05-18 04:24
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	13	$191	217	217	+0	open	—	04-23 06:58
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	6	$186	145	107	+38	open	—	04-07 22:33
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	5	$113	108	108	+0	open	—	04-07 22:07
will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	6	$112	66	49	+18	open	—	04-21 05:55
trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	4	$106	77	37	+40	open	—	04-07 22:47
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	6	$103	76	76	+0	open	—	04-17 23:03
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	10	$98	476	83	+393	open	—	04-15 21:04
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	3	$83	123	32	+92	open	—	04-13 11:05
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?	3	$80	96	0	+96	open	—	04-04 17:41
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?	6	$73	105	6	+99	open	—	04-09 00:03
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	4	$72	84	84	+0	open	—	04-07 22:10
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	3	$70	110	25	+84	open	—	03-25 22:17
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	7	$69	41	41	+0	open	—	04-17 23:07
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	4	$68	96	89	+7	open	—	04-28 13:41
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?	6	$51	30	30	+0	open	—	04-20 22:35
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	4	$51	48	48	+0	open	—	04-25 13:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-26 10:10:05	Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	19¢	$7	0x72d22b…
06-26 10:10:01	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0xbd9fc1…
06-26 10:09:37	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	Yes	BUY	8	70¢	$6	0xc41d35…
05-18 04:24:46	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	446	4¢	$20	0xb1fa7a…
05-18 04:24:17	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	114	6¢	$7	0xaf7e80…
05-18 04:24:11	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	112	99¢	$111	0x734020…
04-29 14:19:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	329	84¢	$277	0x06e461…
04-29 14:19:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	45	84¢	$38	0x367c45…
04-29 14:15:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0x7fa2b4…
04-29 14:07:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	27	84¢	$23	0x09f820…
04-29 14:05:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0x5a06a9…
04-29 14:05:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	15	84¢	$13	0x946d4e…
04-29 14:04:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0xacc69f…
04-29 14:03:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0x81a63a…
04-29 13:38:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	18	84¢	$15	0x7c205c…
04-29 13:36:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	65	84¢	$55	0xc77fba…
04-29 13:23:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	143	84¢	$120	0xda383f…
04-29 13:23:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	38	84¢	$32	0xaffa37…
04-29 13:22:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	13	84¢	$11	0xde69ba…
04-29 13:22:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	133	84¢	$111	0xd45ad5…
04-28 14:44:50	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	198	100¢	$198	0x4e0367…
04-28 14:42:40	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xd11362…
04-28 14:13:06	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	16	11¢	$2	0x80791b…
04-28 13:45:54	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	261	96¢	$251	0x111920…
04-28 13:41:26	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0xaa8bd1…
04-28 13:40:28	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	63	43¢	$27	0xee6ee8…
04-28 13:39:18	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	114	15¢	$17	0x8fa7c7…
04-28 13:37:20	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	14	11¢	$2	0x102c70…
04-28 13:37:18	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	126	12¢	$15	0xa10bab…
04-28 13:37:18	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	350	12¢	$42	0x0b37be…
04-28 13:30:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	9	83¢	$7	0xcaa5b4…
04-28 13:30:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	602	83¢	$500	0x5fe149…
04-28 13:28:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	32	83¢	$26	0x1b93c9…
04-28 13:26:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	25	83¢	$21	0xc92299…
04-28 13:26:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	187	83¢	$155	0xa7c310…
04-27 08:32:56	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	66	44¢	$29	0xddd53f…
04-27 08:32:56	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	SELL	134	1¢	$1	0xdd316e…
04-27 08:32:56	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x055984…
04-27 08:32:54	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	157	3¢	$5	0xd2a086…
04-27 08:32:54	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	2,673	11¢	$294	0x9ed1bc…
04-27 08:32:54	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	380	15¢	$57	0x8f1392…
04-25 17:42:56	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	No	SELL	45	97¢	$44	0x14183f…
04-25 15:51:14	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	929	14¢	$130	0xca0bf3…
04-25 15:49:46	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,657	13¢	$215	0xb71efa…
04-25 13:54:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	29	77¢	$22	0x9b88eb…
04-24 21:50:14	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	84	16¢	$14	0x266441…
04-24 18:01:34	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	296	16¢	$47	0x277e22…
04-23 17:22:44	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x8a66d7…
04-23 06:58:38	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	110	15¢	$17	0x34adc9…
04-22 16:36:22	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0xf2266d…
04-22 16:36:02	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	81	32¢	$26	0x283eae…
04-22 13:29:00	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	SELL	22	70¢	$15	0x4ae2a7…
04-22 13:26:58	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	SELL	75	70¢	$53	0x68f325…
04-22 13:26:38	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0xdcb13a…
04-22 13:10:30	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	23	59¢	$13	0xc8f9e7…
04-22 13:10:30	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	14	59¢	$8	0x9725dd…
04-22 13:09:24	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	23	61¢	$14	0x0ef4b6…
04-22 13:09:08	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	22	61¢	$14	0x2f42cc…
04-22 13:08:52	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xd8577e…
04-22 13:08:52	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x2ca607…
04-22 13:08:50	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x4ab420…
04-22 11:31:54	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	Yes	BUY	113	6¢	$7	0x107cef…
04-22 11:31:46	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	82	57¢	$47	0x5b0a90…
04-22 11:31:32	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	57	7¢	$4	0xbb1687…
04-22 11:31:18	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	88	15¢	$13	0x31b3b8…
04-22 11:30:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	134	7¢	$9	0xba14c6…
04-22 11:30:32	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	157	4¢	$7	0x62442d…
04-21 19:57:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	11	48¢	$5	0x49f284…
04-21 16:00:40	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	21	81¢	$17	0x9e469d…
04-21 15:58:36	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	21	81¢	$17	0xca26f3…
04-21 15:34:28	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	9	81¢	$7	0xe49116…
04-21 15:34:10	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	12	81¢	$10	0xf6f0b3…
04-21 15:33:36	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	14	81¢	$11	0x4a63bb…
04-21 15:33:06	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	47	81¢	$38	0xc97c92…
04-21 14:59:10	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	22	81¢	$18	0x07b080…
04-21 14:28:30	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	21	81¢	$17	0x8df30e…
04-21 13:14:20	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	8	43¢	$4	0xfa0fd5…
04-21 05:56:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x43c1c6…
04-21 05:56:42	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	89	8¢	$7	0xa0ac43…
04-21 05:56:14	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	70	18¢	$13	0xfca68a…
04-21 05:56:08	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x01cf06…
04-21 05:55:24	will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xd88c14…
04-21 05:55:18	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	BUY	38	98¢	$37	0x0b2349…
04-21 05:55:12	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	No	BUY	45	92¢	$41	0xc3f425…
04-21 05:55:00	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	48	40¢	$20	0xacd494…
04-21 05:54:14	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	66	46¢	$30	0x31c31c…
04-21 05:53:58	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	166	81¢	$134	0xb809cd…
04-20 22:35:08	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	93¢	$7	0xdb14b0…
04-20 22:35:08	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	No	SELL	71	91¢	$64	0xcc7b6d…
04-20 22:35:08	will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	No	SELL	28	98¢	$27	0x9f4591…
04-20 22:35:08	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	27	23¢	$6	0x34fcd7…
04-20 22:35:06	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	325	80¢	$260	0xa8e0af…
04-20 22:35:06	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	SELL	59	93¢	$55	0x85b423…
04-20 22:35:06	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	88	44¢	$39	0x2e332d…
04-20 22:34:44	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0xc8edf5…
04-20 21:42:36	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	7	80¢	$5	0x307643…
04-20 21:21:36	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	60	80¢	$48	0xd7fb5e…
04-19 15:01:48	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	11	65¢	$7	0xc24fad…
04-19 15:01:32	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	7	63¢	$5	0x023426…
04-19 10:19:28	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	25	25¢	$6	0x3c3dda…