Necessary-Elderberry — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$364

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

83.0%

Resolved

104

Trades

449

lifetime

Volume

$13.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$30

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-25

last 07-13 07:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 41 days

Categories

Politics

54% 79% +$384

Other

46% 65% -$21

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-13).

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Netanyahu out by June 30?	3	$1.8K	922	922	-0	No	+$16	05-18 04:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	19	$1.4K	855	855	+0	No	+$9	04-29 14:19
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	21	$1.3K	1,014	805	+209	Yes	+$23	04-03 23:30
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	19	$890	573	573	+0	No	+$30	04-21 16:00
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	9	$733	3,149	3,149	+0	No	-$99	05-18 04:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	14	$639	561	561	+0	Yes	-$11	04-29 07:34
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	5	$519	418	418	+0	No	+$2	05-18 04:24
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	29	$490	489	395	+94	Yes	+$71	04-16 18:49
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	7	$362	254	165	+90	No	+$16	03-30 00:20
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	10	$348	420	420	+0	Yes	+$59	04-17 23:00
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	7	$308	171	170	+0	No	+$5	04-25 17:42
Iran Nuke before 2027?	3	$300	165	165	-0	open	—	05-18 04:24
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	8	$277	298	298	+0	Yes	+$8	05-02 21:28
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	12	$232	338	274	+63	Yes	+$35	04-28 13:40
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	8	$230	257	201	+55	Yes	+$68	04-07 22:09
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	2	$227	228	0	+228	Yes	+$0	04-28 14:44
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	6	$216	142	105	+38	Yes	+$15	04-21 05:55
Iran leadership change by May 31?	14	$203	587	587	+0	No	-$12	05-18 04:24
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	13	$191	217	217	+0	No	-$9	04-23 06:58
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	6	$186	145	107	+38	Yes	+$12	04-07 22:33
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	5	$113	108	108	+0	Yes	+$14	04-07 22:07
will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	6	$112	66	49	+18	No	+$2	04-21 05:55
trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	4	$106	77	37	+40	Yes	+$3	04-07 22:47
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	6	$103	76	76	+0	No	+$40	04-17 23:03
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	10	$98	476	83	+393	No	-$35	04-15 21:04
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	3	$83	123	32	+92	Yes	-$47	04-13 11:05
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?	3	$80	96	0	+96	Yes	+$16	04-04 17:41
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?	4	$78	44	44	+0	No	+$0	05-18 04:23
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?	6	$73	105	6	+99	Yes	+$37	04-09 00:03
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	4	$72	84	84	+0	Yes	+$15	04-07 22:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-13 07:35:13	Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	17¢	$6	0xdc8733…
07-13 07:35:13	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x976166…
07-13 07:35:13	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	8¢	$3	0x818a87…
07-13 07:35:13	Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	18¢	$0	0x0f50f9…
06-26 10:10:05	Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	19¢	$7	0x72d22b…
06-26 10:10:01	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0xbd9fc1…
06-26 10:09:37	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	Yes	BUY	8	70¢	$6	0xc41d35…
05-18 04:25:44	Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?	Yes	SELL	54	44¢	$24	0x88926d…
05-18 04:25:00	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	922	97¢	$891	0x81b897…
05-18 04:24:46	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	446	4¢	$20	0xb1fa7a…
05-18 04:24:38	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	165	90¢	$149	0x8fa2d3…
05-18 04:24:17	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	114	6¢	$7	0xaf7e80…
05-18 04:24:11	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	112	99¢	$111	0x734020…
05-18 04:23:59	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	89	9¢	$8	0xb7256a…
05-18 04:23:54	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	56	17¢	$9	0xf67993…
05-18 04:23:47	Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?	No	SELL	14	92¢	$13	0x8c2478…
05-18 04:23:43	Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?	No	SELL	9	85¢	$7	0xe9c2bb…
05-18 04:23:31	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	8	79¢	$6	0x504203…
05-18 04:23:28	Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	7	71¢	$5	0xa82abd…
05-08 20:57:44	Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?	No	SELL	36	90¢	$32	0xa8707a…
05-08 20:57:11	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	149	98¢	$145	0x915004…
05-06 11:57:04	Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0x67fb4b…
05-04 04:26:48	Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?	No	BUY	35	86¢	$30	0x8a5bf1…
05-02 21:28:30	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	SELL	212	48¢	$102	0x8ae8bc…
05-02 20:28:12	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	SELL	32	48¢	$15	0x4efa20…
05-02 20:26:20	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	SELL	31	48¢	$15	0xbfa56a…
05-02 20:26:00	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	SELL	9	46¢	$4	0x66cb69…
05-02 20:25:42	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	SELL	8	48¢	$4	0x962db6…
05-01 19:19:24	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	9	91¢	$9	0xb88958…
05-01 19:19:16	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	BUY	16	47¢	$8	0xd7433d…
05-01 19:19:02	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	49	95¢	$46	0x794a53…
04-29 14:19:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	329	84¢	$277	0x06e461…
04-29 14:19:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	45	84¢	$38	0x367c45…
04-29 14:15:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0x7fa2b4…
04-29 14:07:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	27	84¢	$23	0x09f820…
04-29 14:05:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0x5a06a9…
04-29 14:05:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	15	84¢	$13	0x946d4e…
04-29 14:04:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0xacc69f…
04-29 14:03:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0x81a63a…
04-29 13:38:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	18	84¢	$15	0x7c205c…
04-29 13:36:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	65	84¢	$55	0xc77fba…
04-29 13:23:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	143	84¢	$120	0xda383f…
04-29 13:23:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	38	84¢	$32	0xaffa37…
04-29 13:22:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	13	84¢	$11	0xde69ba…
04-29 13:22:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	133	84¢	$111	0xd45ad5…
04-29 07:34:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	44	56¢	$24	0xd3cbfb…
04-29 07:06:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	68	56¢	$38	0x3a97f7…
04-29 07:02:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x23376a…
04-29 06:53:00	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	SELL	6	46¢	$3	0x5c6047…
04-29 05:49:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	445	56¢	$249	0xd50513…
04-28 14:44:50	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	198	100¢	$198	0x4e0367…
04-28 14:42:40	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xd11362…
04-28 14:13:06	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	16	11¢	$2	0x80791b…
04-28 14:07:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	24	57¢	$13	0xc6c60a…
04-28 14:05:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	57¢	$5	0xee8af3…
04-28 13:52:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xf6fd6d…
04-28 13:52:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	57¢	$5	0x51fdec…
04-28 13:51:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0x0c3f83…
04-28 13:45:54	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	261	96¢	$251	0x111920…
04-28 13:41:26	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0xaa8bd1…
04-28 13:41:22	Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	BUY	7	61¢	$5	0xe55872…
04-28 13:41:16	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x35cb11…
04-28 13:40:44	Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?	No	BUY	14	90¢	$13	0x4d4242…
04-28 13:40:36	Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	57¢	$30	0x586568…
04-28 13:40:32	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	56	21¢	$12	0x66c2d1…
04-28 13:40:28	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	63	43¢	$27	0xee6ee8…
04-28 13:40:22	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	89	16¢	$14	0x1bfd9b…
04-28 13:39:18	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	114	15¢	$17	0x8fa7c7…
04-28 13:39:02	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	156	91¢	$142	0x6432ad…
04-28 13:38:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x63e34e…
04-28 13:37:36	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	BUY	282	45¢	$127	0x2a3631…
04-28 13:37:20	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	14	11¢	$2	0x102c70…
04-28 13:37:18	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	126	12¢	$15	0xa10bab…
04-28 13:37:18	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	350	12¢	$42	0x0b37be…
04-28 13:36:36	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	873	95¢	$829	0x4a2a51…
04-28 13:35:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	44	58¢	$26	0x594e77…
04-28 13:35:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	45	58¢	$26	0x772503…
04-28 13:34:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	58¢	$7	0x1f269f…
04-28 13:34:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	395	58¢	$229	0x0a4da7…
04-28 13:30:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	9	83¢	$7	0xcaa5b4…
04-28 13:30:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	602	83¢	$500	0x5fe149…
04-28 13:28:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	32	83¢	$26	0x1b93c9…
04-28 13:26:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	25	83¢	$21	0xc92299…
04-28 13:26:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	187	83¢	$155	0xa7c310…
04-27 08:32:56	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	66	44¢	$29	0xddd53f…
04-27 08:32:56	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	SELL	134	1¢	$1	0xdd316e…
04-27 08:32:56	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x055984…
04-27 08:32:54	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	157	3¢	$5	0xd2a086…
04-27 08:32:54	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	2,673	11¢	$294	0x9ed1bc…
04-27 08:32:54	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	380	15¢	$57	0x8f1392…
04-25 17:42:56	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	No	SELL	45	97¢	$44	0x14183f…
04-25 15:51:14	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	929	14¢	$130	0xca0bf3…
04-25 15:49:46	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,657	13¢	$215	0xb71efa…
04-25 13:54:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	29	77¢	$22	0x9b88eb…
04-24 21:50:14	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	84	16¢	$14	0x266441…
04-24 18:01:34	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	296	16¢	$47	0x277e22…
04-23 17:22:44	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x8a66d7…
04-23 06:58:38	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	110	15¢	$17	0x34adc9…
04-22 16:36:22	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0xf2266d…
04-22 16:36:02	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	81	32¢	$26	0x283eae…