Fluffy-Ephemera — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.31K

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

51.5%

Resolved

277

Trades

1,063

lifetime

Volume

$60.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$57

Open exposure

$65

1 position

First seen

2026-01-18

last 09-16 15:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 70 days

Categories

Other

75% 55% +$695

Politics

16% 75% -$1,322

Sports

7% 52% -$592

Crypto

2% 40% -$55

Tech

0% 50% -$35

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No		+69	$65	94¢	$65	+$0	08-10 14:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	6	$11.3K	5,813	5,813	+0	No	-$6	05-08 19:46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	30	$3.9K	3,070	1,300	+1,770	Yes	-$1,417	05-08 18:13
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$3.5K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	-$20	04-28 12:59
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	6	$2.1K	2,131	46	+2,084	No	+$45	04-29 02:36
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	6	$1.6K	792	792	+0	No	+$2	03-16 17:43
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-08-01?	4	$1.5K	878	878	+0	No	+$282	08-01 14:02
will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	5	$1.3K	678	678	+0	Yes	+$9	02-16 10:41
us strikes iran by february 10 2026	4	$1.3K	634	634	+0	No	+$1	02-10 15:59
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	5	$1.2K	616	616	+0	No	+$29	03-15 19:23
Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026?	3	$1.1K	550	550	+0	Yes	+$6	05-25 10:08
Will FC Argeș Pitești win on 2026-07-31?	4	$873	446	446	+0	Yes	+$18	07-31 17:47
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	9	$765	620	620	+0	Yes	+$159	06-28 03:56
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	2	$742	371	371	+0	No	+$0	03-07 01:19
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	7	$699	1,248	858	+390	No	+$99	05-06 18:31
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	2	$662	332	332	+0	No	+$1	02-21 03:24
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	7	$612	438	438	+0	Yes	+$130	06-15 18:57
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-08-01?	2	$600	619	0	+619	Yes	+$19	08-02 13:39
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	6	$566	363	238	+125	Yes	+$12	05-09 12:40
nba orl mem 2026 01 18	58	$527	3,950	3,950	+0	Grizzlies	-$285	01-18 19:06
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	10	$509	367	367	+0	Yes	-$11	06-27 22:59
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	1	$500	568	0	+568	Yes	+$68	05-30 17:58
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	10	$492	294	294	+0	Yes	+$12	06-25 00:05
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	7	$477	455	157	+298	Yes	-$5	06-20 21:57
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	5	$475	259	259	+0	No	+$15	07-01 21:46
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-07-30?	5	$441	277	277	+0	No	-$6	07-31 00:02
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?	5	$439	243	243	+0	Yes	+$29	06-30 03:00
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	3	$438	193	251	-58	No	$0	06-11 06:55
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	18	$427	414	414	+0	Yes	-$13	06-22 19:03
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?	3	$416	216	216	+0	Yes	+$16	07-07 01:55
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	3	$406	219	202	+18	Yes	-$4	07-02 02:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-16 15:59:44	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,231	13¢	$160	0x6bdd4c…
09-16 15:59:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,500	1¢	$18	0xa9d463…
09-14 23:52:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,250	1¢	$10	0x61bbb0…
09-14 23:51:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,250	1¢	$10	0xc4aada…
09-14 23:51:04	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	231	13¢	$30	0x821cf2…
08-10 14:34:36	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	69	94¢	$65	0xac41f7…
08-02 13:39:38	Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-08-01?	Yes	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0xa22932…
08-02 13:39:05	Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-08-01?	Yes	BUY	516	97¢	$500	0xf49fd0…
08-02 13:31:15	Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-08-02?	Yes	SELL	63	100¢	$63	0xa22b66…
08-02 11:25:09	Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-08-02?	Yes	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0x0be3d9…
08-02 11:24:12	Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-08-02?	No	SELL	120	23¢	$28	0x72dfad…
08-02 11:12:14	Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-08-02?	No	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0x39ad70…
08-02 11:11:59	Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-08-02?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xdb3870…
08-01 14:47:08	Will GKS Piast Gliwice vs. Wisla Krakow end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x612900…
08-01 14:47:05	Will GKS Piast Gliwice vs. Wisla Krakow end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x52c969…
08-01 14:45:54	Will GKS Piast Gliwice win on 2026-08-01?	Yes	SELL	3	91¢	$3	0x0c2e17…
08-01 14:45:45	Will GKS Piast Gliwice win on 2026-08-01?	Yes	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0xda3380…
08-01 14:45:39	Will GKS Piast Gliwice win on 2026-08-01?	Yes	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x787ac5…
08-01 14:44:47	Will GKS Piast Gliwice win on 2026-08-01?	Yes	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0xf808e2…
08-01 14:42:21	Will GKS Piast Gliwice win on 2026-08-01?	Yes	BUY	53	88¢	$47	0xf17291…
08-01 14:33:24	Will GKS Piast Gliwice win on 2026-08-01?	No	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x2a3031…
08-01 14:32:48	Will GKS Piast Gliwice vs. Wisla Krakow end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xf8e2a0…
08-01 14:02:44	Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-08-01?	No	SELL	878	100¢	$877	0x8c29f0…
08-01 12:00:53	Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-08-01?	No	BUY	278	70¢	$195	0x0dd397…
08-01 11:43:29	Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-08-01?	No	BUY	448	67¢	$300	0xf5dc38…
08-01 11:42:59	Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-08-01?	No	BUY	152	66¢	$100	0xf9a2f8…
08-01 11:33:05	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-01?	Yes	SELL	2	18¢	$0	0x1c3d8f…
08-01 11:30:38	Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0x5f62e2…
08-01 11:29:35	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-01?	Yes	SELL	22	18¢	$4	0xa11027…
08-01 11:27:42	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-01?	Yes	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0x83bdad…
08-01 11:22:56	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-01?	Yes	BUY	30	32¢	$10	0x53fd54…
07-31 23:07:24	Will Boyaca Patriotas win on 2026-07-31?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x2390bd…
07-31 23:06:41	Will CD Real Santander vs. Boyaca Patriotas end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	135	100¢	$135	0xfe818b…
07-31 23:01:12	Will CD Real Santander vs. Boyaca Patriotas end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0xd82f7f…
07-31 23:00:30	Will CD Real Santander vs. Boyaca Patriotas end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0x585031…
07-31 22:59:00	Will Portuguesa FC win on 2026-07-31?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x5adbda…
07-31 22:46:44	Will Portuguesa FC win on 2026-07-31?	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xd7adaa…
07-31 22:23:36	Will Boyaca Patriotas win on 2026-07-31?	No	SELL	46	93¢	$43	0x0cd0d2…
07-31 22:07:41	Will Boyaca Patriotas win on 2026-07-31?	No	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0xff7a36…
07-31 22:06:51	Will Boyaca Patriotas win on 2026-07-31?	No	BUY	18	34¢	$6	0x12826f…
07-31 22:02:33	Will CD Los Chankas vs. CD Comerciantes Unidos end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	61	2¢	$1	0xe7b4cc…
07-31 22:02:32	Will CD Los Chankas vs. CD Comerciantes Unidos end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	39	2¢	$1	0xe5c7f9…
07-31 21:43:11	Will CD Real Santander win on 2026-07-31?	Yes	BUY	23	32¢	$7	0x6369ed…
07-31 20:58:38	Will Drogheda United FC vs. Shamrock Rovers end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	56	100¢	$55	0xf52c7c…
07-31 20:56:41	Will Dundee United FC vs. Rangers FC end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$13	0x45746f…
07-31 20:56:21	Will Rangers FC win on 2026-07-31?	No	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0xaf0c51…
07-31 20:49:15	Will Drogheda United FC vs. Shamrock Rovers end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0xcfb63a…
07-31 20:45:48	Will Rangers FC win on 2026-07-31?	No	BUY	35	85¢	$30	0x485322…
07-31 20:44:53	Will Dundee United FC vs. Rangers FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0xdf71ad…
07-31 20:41:11	Will ASC Oțelul Galați vs. Dinamo 1948 end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	122	100¢	$122	0x7e0683…
07-31 20:15:33	Will ASC Oțelul Galați vs. Dinamo 1948 end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	62	64¢	$40	0xe0241e…
07-31 20:14:41	Will ASC Oțelul Galați vs. Dinamo 1948 end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	59	64¢	$38	0x4d79e6…
07-31 19:46:00	Will FC CSKA 1948 win on 2026-07-31?	No	BUY	43	33¢	$14	0x1e0fda…
07-31 19:36:00	Will FC CSKA 1948 win on 2026-07-31?	No	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x95b8b5…
07-31 19:28:30	Will FC Arda Kardzhali win on 2026-07-31?	Yes	BUY	30	21¢	$6	0x6caeeb…
07-31 19:02:33	Will FC Arda Kardzhali win on 2026-07-31?	Yes	BUY	34	30¢	$10	0x9a94b0…
07-31 18:54:32	Will IK Oddevold vs. Norrby IF end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	80	100¢	$80	0x64a4bc…
07-31 18:47:39	Will IK Oddevold vs. Norrby IF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0xc91597…
07-31 18:36:56	Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb win on 2026-08-01?	No	BUY	30	11¢	$3	0xd5eb6a…
07-31 18:32:50	Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb win on 2026-08-01?	No	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x6c7c7b…
07-31 18:25:48	Will IK Oddevold vs. Norrby IF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	25	55¢	$14	0x12bc28…
07-31 17:47:42	Will FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc win on 2026-07-31?	No	SELL	54	100¢	$54	0xdbbcc7…
07-31 17:47:27	Will FC Argeș Pitești win on 2026-07-31?	Yes	SELL	446	100¢	$445	0xead953…
07-31 17:22:35	Will FC Argeș Pitești win on 2026-07-31?	Yes	BUY	306	98¢	$300	0x2f196b…
07-31 17:14:05	Will FC Argeș Pitești win on 2026-07-31?	Yes	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x34ec1d…
07-31 17:11:29	Will FC Argeș Pitești win on 2026-07-31?	Yes	BUY	31	88¢	$27	0xc10a47…
07-31 17:03:26	Will FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc win on 2026-07-31?	No	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0x95c64b…
07-31 16:56:12	Will FC Argeș Pitești vs. FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	18	54¢	$10	0xba3be5…
07-31 16:45:38	Will FC Argeș Pitești vs. FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	62	46¢	$29	0xa5994e…
07-31 15:58:09	Will FC Argeș Pitești vs. FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0x09bbff…
07-31 15:14:41	Will FK Kolos Kovalivka win on 2026-07-31?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x261472…
07-31 15:14:06	Will FK Kolos Kovalivka win on 2026-07-31?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x65666a…
07-31 13:33:08	Will Henan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	67	100¢	$67	0x17f954…
07-31 13:32:56	Will Henan FC win on 2026-07-31?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xa86d72…
07-31 13:30:42	Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-07-31?	Yes	BUY	33	2¢	$1	0x68aad1…
07-31 13:30:38	Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-07-31?	Yes	BUY	36	2¢	$1	0x38a0c9…
07-31 13:30:21	Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-07-31?	Yes	BUY	31	2¢	$1	0x4c2a9a…
07-31 13:25:33	Will Henan FC win on 2026-07-31?	No	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0xb452db…
07-31 13:21:48	Will Henan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x40ed99…
07-31 13:21:12	Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-07-31?	Yes	SELL	30	10¢	$3	0x0f6b43…
07-31 13:17:03	Will Henan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x3c3e41…
07-31 13:15:42	Will Henan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x498f32…
07-31 13:15:41	Will Henan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xc0be41…
07-31 13:15:14	Will Henan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x091fae…
07-31 12:58:00	Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-07-31?	Yes	BUY	30	22¢	$7	0xf7aef7…
07-31 00:46:14	Will Leeds United win on 2026-07-30?	No	SELL	24	32¢	$8	0x8ecb70…
07-31 00:28:35	Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-07-30?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x19c95d…
07-31 00:24:50	Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Paranaense end in a draw?	No	BUY	23	13¢	$3	0xae4c72…
07-31 00:23:27	Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-07-30?	No	SELL	22	94¢	$21	0x52970d…
07-31 00:13:27	Will Leeds United win on 2026-07-30?	No	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x4f48dd…
07-31 00:10:32	Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-07-30?	No	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x2dc683…
07-31 00:04:23	Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-07-30?	Yes	SELL	119	100¢	$119	0xc10ce5…
07-31 00:03:30	Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-07-30?	Yes	SELL	63	100¢	$63	0x5ece63…
07-31 00:02:21	Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-07-30?	No	SELL	207	100¢	$207	0x2b68c9…
07-30 23:51:05	Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-07-30?	Yes	BUY	36	83¢	$30	0x89f8e0…
07-30 23:49:20	Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-07-30?	Yes	SELL	12	90¢	$11	0xe0b447…
07-30 23:49:20	Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-07-30?	Yes	SELL	24	90¢	$21	0xa31e59…
07-30 23:43:53	Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-07-30?	No	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x7add25…
07-30 23:42:56	Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-07-30?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0xf50b27…
07-30 23:40:27	Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-07-30?	Yes	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0xe53b3c…