Vivacious-Rawhide — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.74K

Unrealized P&L

-$107

Hit rate

59.0%

Resolved

253

Trades

481

lifetime

Volume

$37.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$78

Open exposure

$287

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-28 20:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 121 days

Categories

Other

54% 52% -$5,296

Politics

31% 48% +$2,677

Sports

14% 49% +$17

Crypto

0% 0% -$140

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	+370	$200	34¢	$128	-$72	08-21 17:21
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+600	$84	12¢	$75	-$9	08-07 16:29
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+368	$70	14¢	$50	-$20	10-11 20:56
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	+103	$40	34¢	$34	-$6	10-23 16:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	3	$2.3K	2,094	2,094	+0	Yes	+$1,932	05-09 08:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	22	$1.8K	3,791	3,791	+0	No	-$1,731	06-29 19:14
Will Unai Simón win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$1.7K	841	841	+0	Yes	+$20	07-19 22:36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	13	$1.3K	2,403	2,403	+0	No	-$1,263	07-20 14:30
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	9	$1.2K	24,031	0	+24,031	No	-$1,218	05-21 20:13
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	6	$1.2K	2,370	0	+2,370	Yes	+$1,168	05-28 18:18
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2	$1.0K	561	561	+0	No	+$50	08-17 06:44
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	11	$884	3,174	0	+3,174	No	-$884	06-26 18:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	2	$854	1,508	0	+1,508	Yes	+$653	05-23 21:07
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?	3	$824	424	424	+0	Yes	+$24	04-14 14:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	7	$693	2,385	0	+2,385	No	-$693	04-20 18:03
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or Men's Young Talent of the Year award?	2	$582	315	315	+0	Yes	+$47	10-26 22:14
dota2 ngx vg 2026 08 15	5	$505	699	0	+699	Nigma Galaxy	+$194	08-15 06:43
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	1	$493	530	0	+530	No	+$37	05-26 06:40
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	8	$487	450	450	+0	Yes	+$357	07-18 11:51
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	9	$437	2,945	0	+2,945	No	-$437	10-26 22:35
will lionel messi score 10 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	3	$424	274	274	+0	No	+$124	07-19 22:18
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	2	$400	482	0	+482	Yes	+$82	05-15 07:48
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	2	$382	238	238	+0	Yes	+$82	03-07 19:57
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2	$378	1,273	1,273	+0	No	-$222	10-26 15:54
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	7	$320	3,480	0	+3,480	No	-$320	06-26 18:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	3	$313	930	0	+930	Yes	+$617	06-13 12:25
will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	2	$286	200	200	+0	Yes	+$34	06-17 16:20
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	3	$272	933	933	+0	No	-$268	09-27 16:59
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$271	339	0	+339	No	-$271	07-19 22:19
Will Racing Club De Lens win on 2026-08-16?	1	$265	331	0	+331	Yes	-$265	08-16 11:56
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	7	$261	30,100	0	+30,100	No	-$261	06-20 03:01
dota2 lgd ty 2026 08 16 game handicap home 1pt5	2	$259	164	164	+0	LGD Gaming	+$69	08-16 10:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$254	179	179	+0	No	-$46	05-23 19:35
lal osa rea 2026 02 21 btts	2	$250	150	150	+0	Yes	+$50	02-21 19:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 20:06:58	FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: 1. FC Magdeburg O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	37	57¢	$21	0x912087…
10-28 19:51:19	Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	63	63¢	$40	0x6eca1e…
10-26 22:35:03	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	503	22¢	$112	0xa4281c…
10-26 22:17:30	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	386	26¢	$100	0x34acae…
10-26 22:14:51	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or Men's Young Talent of the Year award?	Yes	SELL	315	100¢	$314	0x95a79a…
10-26 18:32:57	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or Men's Young Talent of the Year award?	Yes	BUY	315	85¢	$267	0xb4da30…
10-26 15:59:33	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	139	32¢	$45	0x8e91a0…
10-26 15:54:23	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	1,273	6¢	$78	0xec1ead…
10-26 15:25:51	Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	230	47¢	$108	0x03b602…
10-25 21:52:17	FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0x5bf57a…
10-24 20:17:21	Fight to Go the Distance?	No	BUY	75	40¢	$30	0xea4cfa…
10-24 17:45:56	SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	91	33¢	$30	0x9382c7…
10-24 17:19:33	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	63	41¢	$26	0x5a1784…
10-24 13:07:00	Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	59	51¢	$30	0x33fe3f…
10-23 16:01:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	103	39¢	$40	0xfbe4b4…
10-18 18:56:42	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	89	79¢	$70	0xe2b88c…
10-17 13:21:11	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	148	78¢	$116	0x891c99…
10-17 13:20:11	Will Brentford FC win on 2026-10-17?	No	BUY	92	65¢	$60	0x61c543…
10-15 18:19:59	FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	59	51¢	$30	0x3dd6ab…
10-14 18:53:12	ucl rom rma 2026 10 14 ags kylian mbappe 90027501	Yes	BUY	164	57¢	$94	0x9991db…
10-13 18:35:39	ucl gal fcb 2026 10 13 ags lamine yamal 90110679	Yes	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0xee89ec…
10-13 18:35:00	ucl vf bay 2026 10 13 assists michael olise 90078247 gte1	Yes	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0xf22508…
10-13 18:34:37	ucl vf bay 2026 10 13 ags harry kane 90026732	Yes	BUY	65	62¢	$40	0xe6c5d3…
10-11 20:56:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	368	19¢	$70	0x9a711e…
10-10 18:47:13	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	243	21¢	$50	0x28e0a3…
10-10 18:30:51	Ferrán Torres: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	86	59¢	$51	0x496e5f…
10-10 13:23:36	Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xf3b13a…
10-10 11:30:07	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	44	68¢	$30	0x75f7da…
10-06 15:03:51	Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	5,463	0¢	$11	0xec1470…
10-06 15:02:44	Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	37	57¢	$21	0x062a40…
10-03 15:53:33	Will England win on 2026-10-03?	Yes	BUY	121	58¢	$70	0x6c74df…
10-01 18:10:20	Will Norway win on 2026-10-01?	Yes	BUY	130	69¢	$90	0x7c80df…
09-29 18:42:56	Slovakia vs. Kazakhstan: Kazakhstan O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	49	43¢	$21	0xa78271…
09-29 18:38:20	Will England win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0xa56c3e…
09-29 18:36:42	San Marino vs. Albania: Albania O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x5b9cc4…
09-27 17:00:00	Will Germany win on 2026-09-27?	Yes	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0x10874d…
09-27 16:59:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	933	0¢	$2	0x68a614…
09-20 16:55:54	Will Fulham FC win on 2026-09-20?	No	BUY	125	40¢	$50	0x0de835…
09-20 15:12:18	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20?	Yes	SELL	68	100¢	$68	0x8fcb2e…
09-20 13:38:16	Manchester City FC vs. Sunderland AFC: Sunderland AFC O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	71	57¢	$40	0x618bcc…
09-20 13:28:01	Will Frosinone Calcio win on 2026-09-20?	No	BUY	68	66¢	$45	0x3f859c…
09-20 12:30:34	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20?	Yes	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0x82c995…
09-19 14:32:24	Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-19?	No	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0x626959…
09-15 19:25:21	lal elc rea 2026 09 15 ags kylian mbappe	Yes	BUY	141	71¢	$100	0xdaa64f…
09-12 18:50:06	Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	118	67¢	$79	0x0b9cd6…
09-12 16:27:00	Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-09-12?	Yes	BUY	56	50¢	$28	0x3d5629…
09-12 15:30:40	Liverpool FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0x59710d…
09-12 14:00:24	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-12?	Yes	BUY	125	64¢	$80	0x07afb1…
09-10 18:15:03	Benjamin Sesko: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	51	59¢	$30	0xc35bc2…
09-10 18:13:42	Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	120	71¢	$85	0x3c1af9…
09-09 18:49:36	Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	127	63¢	$80	0x13d474…
09-09 18:49:24	Ferran Torres: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	123	61¢	$75	0x111564…
09-06 16:08:51	Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	81	63¢	$51	0x31af52…
09-05 18:15:57	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-05?	Yes	BUY	35	32¢	$11	0xfa3335…
09-05 17:59:46	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-05?	Yes	BUY	70	61¢	$43	0x31e537…
09-05 17:38:09	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-05?	Yes	BUY	42	72¢	$30	0x6ca6ba…
09-05 16:37:34	NEC vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 5.5	Under	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0x7d5c79…
09-05 16:03:43	NEC vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	38	78¢	$30	0x3b37ef…
09-05 14:43:27	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0x50747c…
09-05 12:39:00	Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	60	67¢	$40	0x924e9b…
09-04 20:39:22	Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-09-04?	No	BUY	102	49¢	$50	0xb0a4c9…
09-04 19:26:09	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-04?	Yes	BUY	109	64¢	$70	0x9e5c50…
09-01 18:04:36	Hamburg-Eimsbütteler BC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	43	70¢	$30	0x5d9763…
08-31 20:08:58	FC Barcelona vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	86	64¢	$55	0x5d8d43…
08-30 16:39:00	Real Madrid CF vs. Málaga CF: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	48	63¢	$30	0x5b9f41…
08-30 09:18:16	lal rea mala 2026 08 30 ags kylian mbappe	Yes	BUY	90	67¢	$60	0x23abbd…
08-29 12:31:57	Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-08-29?	No	BUY	140	57¢	$80	0x46e7d3…
08-28 19:23:27	Will Lille OSC win on 2026-08-28?	No	BUY	153	59¢	$90	0xb28c2d…
08-26 20:02:33	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-26?	Yes	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0xaf7164…
08-23 11:46:21	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	Team Spirit	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0x5d899b…
08-23 10:07:54	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winner	TEAM VISION	BUY	92	56¢	$51	0xda28ba…
08-22 21:05:37	lal esp rea 2026 08 22 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	88	57¢	$50	0x33cc65…
08-22 19:32:48	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-22?	Yes	BUY	183	71¢	$130	0x393848…
08-22 11:43:55	dota2 vsn2 ty 2026 08 22	TEAM VISION	BUY	225	67¢	$151	0xce2233…
08-22 10:46:18	dota2 vsn2 ty 2026 08 22 game2	TEAM VISION	BUY	70	30¢	$21	0x541454…
08-22 10:03:04	dota2 vsn2 ty 2026 08 22 game2	TEAM VISION	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0x2d6211…
08-21 17:21:51	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	BUY	370	54¢	$200	0x780d39…
08-21 15:23:04	dota2 ty ngx 2026 08 21	Nigma Galaxy	BUY	80	39¢	$31	0x5a5c95…
08-21 07:14:07	dota2 liquid flc 2026 08 21 game2	Team Falcons	BUY	22	49¢	$11	0x2d7646…
08-21 05:09:03	dota2 ty ngx 2026 08 21 game handicap away 1pt5	Nigma Galaxy	BUY	177	62¢	$110	0xea4d30…
08-20 08:55:40	dota2 vsn2 boombo 2026 08 20 game1 ends in daytime	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x7988ce…
08-20 06:28:04	dota2 vsn2 boombo 2026 08 20 game1	TEAM VISION	BUY	53	58¢	$31	0x1e186c…
08-20 05:30:10	dota2 vsn2 boombo 2026 08 20 game1	TEAM VISION	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0x2e0784…
08-17 10:57:45	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	100	26¢	$26	0x1b6375…
08-17 06:44:46	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	561	98¢	$550	0xb8fd6a…
08-16 18:38:09	Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-16?	Yes	BUY	198	58¢	$115	0x28c59c…
08-16 14:31:01	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-16?	No	BUY	150	40¢	$60	0x69b0c4…
08-16 11:56:25	Will Racing Club De Lens win on 2026-08-16?	No	BUY	331	80¢	$265	0xdd0930…
08-16 11:55:28	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	431	39¢	$170	0xd2ae82…
08-16 11:13:31	dota2 lgd ty 2026 08 16	LGD Gaming	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x028a39…
08-16 10:46:27	dota2 lgd ty 2026 08 16	LGD Gaming	BUY	34	32¢	$11	0x7cc619…
08-16 10:45:55	dota2 lgd ty 2026 08 16 game handicap home 1pt5	LGD Gaming	SELL	164	100¢	$164	0xb1545c…
08-16 09:12:04	dota2 lgd ty 2026 08 16	LGD Gaming	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0x4890ee…
08-16 09:11:51	dota2 lgd ty 2026 08 16	LGD Gaming	BUY	41	59¢	$24	0xcabaa9…
08-16 09:11:45	dota2 lgd ty 2026 08 16	LGD Gaming	BUY	44	59¢	$26	0xdaf31c…
08-16 09:11:31	dota2 lgd ty 2026 08 16	LGD Gaming	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x96609e…
08-16 07:59:27	dota2 lgd ty 2026 08 16 game handicap home 1pt5	LGD Gaming	BUY	164	58¢	$95	0xd3fd44…
08-15 13:16:42	dota2 ngx ts8 2026 08 15 game1	Team Spirit	BUY	38	78¢	$30	0x721002…
08-15 07:52:46	dota2 vsn2 ts8 2026 08 15 game2	Team Spirit	BUY	45	33¢	$15	0x194ba6…
08-15 07:41:04	dota2 vsn2 ts8 2026 08 15 game1	TEAM VISION	SELL	72	100¢	$72	0xd51aff…