Questionable-Pinot — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$315

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

67.2%

Resolved

982

Trades

2,103

lifetime

Volume

$16.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-31

last 10-24 19:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 195 days

Categories

Other

64% 44% +$209

Politics

18% 39% -$252

Crypto

7% 34% -$186

Sports

7% 32% -$88

Tech

2% 36% -$30

Pop-Culture

1% 43% +$32

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No		+28	$5	6¢	$2	-$3	10-05 14:40
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No		+15	$1	4¢	$1	$0	09-11 14:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	2	$225	125	125	+0	No	+$25	05-15 02:39
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	2	$210	110	110	+0	No	+$10	05-08 15:41
Will Lady Gaga be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?	2	$195	156	156	+0	No	+$95	05-05 00:22
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	5	$188	100	100	+0	No	+$12	04-27 19:57
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	7	$159	285	185	+100	No	+$23	05-26 19:52
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 280 299	4	$157	166	160	+6	Yes	+$52	04-14 16:00
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?	5	$146	100	100	+0	Yes	-$1	04-18 02:38
nvda up or down on april 9 2026	4	$125	100	100	+0	Up	+$6	04-09 17:16
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 280 299	3	$121	72	72	+0	No	+$21	04-17 03:18
Thunder vs. Spurs	3	$116	67	67	+0	Spurs	+$16	05-25 02:27
will venezuela win the 2026 world baseball classic	7	$114	504	504	+0	Yes	+$76	03-16 22:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$113	84	84	+0	No	+$13	05-30 03:34
ucl atm1 fcb1 2026 04 14 fcb1	2	$112	73	72	+1	Yes	+$33	04-14 21:05
will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	8	$110	120	120	+0	Yes	+$78	08-12 22:09
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	2	$107	60	60	+0	No	+$7	06-13 20:49
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 240 259	2	$106	56	56	+0	No	+$6	04-24 13:36
will sp 500 spx hit 6300 low in march 2026	3	$101	66	66	+0	No	+$31	03-31 19:41
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	1	$100	124	0	+124	No	-$100	05-15 12:09
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?	1	$100	112	0	+112	No	+$12	05-13 02:05
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	4	$98	100	100	+0	No	+$8	04-10 13:28
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	4	$97	262	200	+62	Yes	-$9	03-21 22:52
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	10	$96	225	100	+125	Yes	-$11	04-07 23:01
spx up or down on april 15 2026	2	$94	50	50	+0	Up	+$5	04-15 21:06
Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?	3	$94	154	154	+0	No	-$18	05-05 00:37
elon musk of tweets april 2 april 4 90 114	4	$94	122	117	+5	Yes	+$38	04-04 13:17
elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 90 114	2	$91	50	50	+0	No	+$7	04-11 13:52
will spyglass pharma incs market cap be between 650m and 700m at market close on ipo day	6	$90	50	50	+0	No	-$1	02-06 17:19
msft close above 400 on march 2 2026	2	$90	100	100	+0	No	+$2	03-02 17:30
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	1	$90	105	0	+105	No	-$90	07-03 13:05
nvda up or down on april 16 2026	2	$88	50	50	+0	Down	+$11	04-16 20:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 19:00:44	UFC 333: Ramazan Temirov vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)	Ramazan Temirov	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x8caeb7…
10-24 18:59:47	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	24	18¢	$4	0x9941c0…
10-24 18:14:24	UFC 333: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Prelims)	Losene Keita	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xb5ecb7…
10-24 18:13:12	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	173	3¢	$6	0x251bc2…
10-06 02:36:51	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 15?	No	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0x2b1277…
10-06 02:36:31	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 10?	No	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x148d10…
10-05 14:40:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x5d0692…
10-04 19:42:47	mlb sd mil 2026 10 04	San Diego Padres	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xb28f82…
10-04 19:40:44	Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x5abca7…
10-04 19:28:47	spain snap election called by october 31	No	BUY	25	41¢	$10	0x1ad78c…
10-03 23:56:29	New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays	New York Yankees	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x71f1d5…
10-01 00:53:36	Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x7e64ab…
09-14 12:18:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x6fabd4…
09-12 13:55:18	Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)	Chelsea FC	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0xb02b38…
09-12 13:54:06	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-12?	Yes	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x2b94da…
09-11 14:49:06	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x9ad654…
09-11 14:35:49	Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-09-14?	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x798d3a…
09-10 19:45:36	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0xa74707…
09-10 00:16:12	laptop fdv above 350m one day after launch	No	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x1a8027…
09-09 21:20:01	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0x1aa287…
09-09 20:51:55	Will Liverpool FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x04d743…
09-09 20:44:06	laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x5acd9c…
09-09 20:31:07	Trump out as President by September 30?	Yes	BUY	824	1¢	$10	0xceb145…
09-09 02:41:18	laptop fdv above 500m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x57b991…
09-08 21:09:54	Will Sporting CP win on 2026-09-09?	No	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x9223c1…
09-07 01:51:25	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xce9a4f…
09-06 17:24:19	Will Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	30	5¢	$2	0x5c3b1a…
09-06 15:09:33	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-06?	Yes	SELL	26	97¢	$25	0xbde0c2…
09-06 14:48:31	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?	Yes	SELL	23	88¢	$20	0x07962b…
09-06 13:39:19	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-06?	Yes	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0xa279a8…
09-05 16:00:06	Will Brentford FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x65ee3d…
09-05 15:35:51	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-05?	Yes	SELL	24	90¢	$22	0xced13b…
09-05 13:52:27	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-05?	Yes	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0x9dd670…
09-04 19:16:09	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-04?	Yes	SELL	17	91¢	$15	0x3c8ce5…
09-04 18:45:10	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-04?	Yes	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x24a760…
09-03 21:26:37	will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x37b0f4…
09-03 01:55:07	will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	No	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xb05cd6…
09-02 20:57:46	will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	No	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x404895…
09-02 17:06:34	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x8fe861…
09-01 14:22:15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xa0eeae…
09-01 13:47:31	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0x5fe274…
09-01 13:47:24	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x986a65…
09-01 02:40:37	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-06?	No	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x547a87…
09-01 02:37:13	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?	Yes	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x8e6961…
09-01 02:01:37	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xeb6a65…
08-31 17:25:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xa22f68…
08-31 15:54:40	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31?	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x4d9442…
08-31 15:43:12	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x2325d4…
08-30 13:16:28	Will Leeds United FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xdc99d0…
08-30 13:14:52	Will Fulham FC win on 2026-08-30?	Yes	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x26e8d4…
08-28 14:35:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xc726ba…
08-28 13:51:57	Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?	No	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x32567d…
08-27 01:54:54	Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?	No	SELL	47	44¢	$21	0x7e4313…
08-26 00:59:03	Will Databricks have the greatest valuation growth in August 2026?	No	SELL	40	81¢	$32	0xc6681c…
08-25 19:48:46	jynxzi vs speed who wins in rocket league	Speed	BUY	43	25¢	$11	0x4c44b5…
08-25 19:47:13	jynxzi vs speed who wins in rocket league	Speed	BUY	19	37¢	$7	0x31a8b7…
08-25 19:46:49	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	25¢	$8	0x564860…
08-25 19:46:25	jynxzi vs speed who wins in rocket league	Speed	BUY	7	25¢	$2	0x53542c…
08-25 19:45:36	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0x78dc70…
08-25 19:34:16	jynxzi vs speed who wins in fifa	Jynxzi	BUY	18	25¢	$4	0x6b610f…
08-25 19:09:58	jynxzi vs speed who wins in fifa	Jynxzi	BUY	7	25¢	$2	0x988edc…
08-25 19:09:54	jynxzi vs speed who wins in fifa	Jynxzi	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0xda0eff…
08-25 19:09:52	jynxzi vs speed who wins in fifa	Jynxzi	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x8f9a53…
08-25 19:09:51	jynxzi vs speed who wins in fifa	Jynxzi	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x8998b6…
08-25 18:59:30	jynxzi vs speed who wins in fifa	Jynxzi	BUY	19	28¢	$5	0x01ad05…
08-25 18:49:54	jynxzi vs speed who wins in fifa	Jynxzi	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x9c54d4…
08-25 18:27:51	jynxzi vs speed who wins in chess	Speed	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x50a4e1…
08-25 18:17:51	jynxzi vs speed who wins in fortnite	Jynxzi	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x6169e1…
08-25 18:14:19	jynxzi vs speed who wins in fortnite	Jynxzi	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x41676e…
08-25 17:55:37	jynxzi vs speed who wins in minecraft	Jynxzi	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x8f5477…
08-25 17:54:31	jynxzi vs speed who wins in roblox spelling bee	Speed	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x2ffc03…
08-25 12:50:40	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	15¢	$6	0x826a71…
08-23 13:24:42	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	TEAM VISION	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x4c2f37…
08-23 03:56:21	dota2 ty ts8 2026 08 22 game2	Team Yandex	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0xe86d43…
08-23 01:54:07	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	Yes	SELL	56	75¢	$42	0x8e57e1…
08-22 16:31:13	Will Brentford FC win on 2026-08-22?	No	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x72dc71…
08-22 13:41:30	Will Brentford FC win on 2026-08-22?	No	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xcf9dd5…
08-22 13:41:22	Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-08-22?	Yes	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0xf06d77…
08-22 13:03:57	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-08-22?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x9193a7…
08-22 02:48:07	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	22¢	$4	0xce93bf…
08-21 21:21:03	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-08-22?	Yes	BUY	28	72¢	$20	0xd6276c…
08-21 00:41:22	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 10 hours	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xc1ef98…
08-21 00:34:07	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 10 hours	Yes	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0x345b47…
08-21 00:19:12	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x49a8d8…
08-20 19:16:49	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	50¢	$16	0x0a1337…
08-20 19:10:45	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x1dff93…
08-20 17:37:34	dota2 ngx flc 2026 08 20	Nigma Galaxy	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xd12bab…
08-20 17:20:37	Will Databricks have the greatest valuation growth in August 2026?	No	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x38159b…
08-20 16:52:25	dota2 ngx flc 2026 08 20	Nigma Galaxy	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xaebc05…
08-20 16:39:24	dota2 ngx flc 2026 08 20	Nigma Galaxy	SELL	12	38¢	$4	0xaacbcb…
08-20 14:18:43	dota2 ngx flc 2026 08 20	Nigma Galaxy	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x887343…
08-20 13:05:24	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0xb25b64…
08-19 16:18:33	Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?	No	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0x48c62a…
08-19 15:44:22	Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?	No	BUY	7	13¢	$1	0x537e8a…
08-19 02:14:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x116160…
08-18 14:55:31	will openais astra model be released by august 31 2026 20260801214557731	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x73ef8c…
08-18 14:50:15	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	Yes	BUY	56	72¢	$40	0x04f851…
08-18 14:25:06	Will Databricks have the greatest valuation growth in August 2026?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x91aac6…
08-17 13:04:04	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xbaedfd…
08-16 04:00:10	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0xa49b12…