Warlike-Horn — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$104.7K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.02K

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

644

lifetime

Volume

$1.36M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$2.12K

Open exposure

$20.2K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 11-05 06:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Politics

74% 94% +$99,961

Other

26% 100% +$4,762

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 67 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No		-20,000	-$18,580	98¢	$-19630	-$1,050	05-11 08:08
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes		+1,000	$510	54¢	$535	+$25	11-05 06:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	150	$307.0K	338,146	0	+338,146	No	+$31,196	10-10 18:38
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	80	$241.7K	265,000	0	+265,000	Yes	+$23,261	11-04 00:14
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	4	$138.4K	138,800	0	+138,800	Yes	+$416	04-30 22:57
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	44	$121.6K	61,000	61,000	+0	No	+$182	05-11 02:40
netanyahu out by march 31 854	30	$104.7K	108,000	0	+108,000	No	+$3,250	03-18 06:22
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$99.7K	100,000	0	+100,000	Yes	+$300	04-06 07:31
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	43	$99.1K	100,000	0	+100,000	Yes	+$900	05-01 18:06
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	9	$69.6K	70,000	0	+70,000	No	+$370	10-08 18:55
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	23	$41.6K	43,427	0	+43,427	No	+$1,793	04-10 23:47
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	39	$36.2K	43,198	0	+43,198	Yes	+$7,032	11-04 04:30
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	53	$20.8K	30,000	0	+30,000	No	+$9,200	11-03 06:51
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	20	$18.6K	0	20,000	-20,000	open	—	05-11 08:08
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	12	$14.2K	20,000	0	+20,000	No	+$5,800	11-02 04:43
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	36	$10.2K	14,003	5,000	+9,003	Yes	+$3,503	11-04 03:44
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	16	$9.9K	10,000	0	+10,000	Yes	+$101	11-04 04:07
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	1	$9.6K	10,000	0	+10,000	No	+$430	01-03 21:01
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	28	$8.0K	10,000	0	+10,000	Yes	+$2,000	11-04 00:24
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	34	$4.3K	5,000	5,000	+0	No	+$250	10-30 12:40
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	3	$3.0K	10,205	0	+10,205	No	+$7,239	10-06 20:12
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	5	$2.9K	10,000	0	+10,000	Yes	+$7,100	09-30 04:29
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	3	$615	1,025	0	+1,025	Yes	+$410	10-03 07:30
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	8	$510	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	11-05 06:58
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	2	$11	11,000	0	+11,000	Yes	-$11	05-09 04:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 06:58:12	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	169	51¢	$86	0x112f79…
11-05 06:56:25	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	204	51¢	$104	0x30c7f1…
11-05 06:40:06	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xc799b8…
11-05 06:39:42	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xe28992…
11-05 06:37:07	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xc87790…
11-05 06:23:01	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	400	51¢	$204	0x1bb3b5…
11-05 06:06:10	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xb92e04…
11-05 06:01:21	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	51¢	$102	0xc9dc28…
11-04 04:30:03	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,198	94¢	$3,016	0xc15fb8…
11-04 04:18:31	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	813	98¢	$801	0x63ad96…
11-04 04:18:31	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,636	98¢	$3,581	0x1d1772…
11-04 04:18:19	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	396	98¢	$390	0x60a061…
11-04 04:18:19	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0x002cfa…
11-04 04:17:25	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0x2cb996…
11-04 04:17:12	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	99¢	$66	0x541554…
11-04 04:16:55	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,573	99¢	$3,519	0x59b331…
11-04 04:16:48	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	98¢	$492	0xad0d49…
11-04 04:15:48	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	98¢	$492	0xbf7dac…
11-04 04:15:48	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	251	99¢	$247	0x37beff…
11-04 04:14:36	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	99¢	$66	0x3908d1…
11-04 04:14:31	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	123	98¢	$122	0x567d31…
11-04 04:14:10	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xc91136…
11-04 04:07:28	Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,370	99¢	$1,356	0xe1a1d0…
11-04 04:07:28	Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x74b5e7…
11-04 04:07:28	Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,246	99¢	$4,204	0x64ee97…
11-04 04:07:28	Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	99¢	$43	0x215e58…
11-04 04:07:28	Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,980	0x14a7e1…
11-04 04:07:27	Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	240	99¢	$236	0xe9f8c7…
11-04 04:07:27	Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,601	99¢	$1,585	0xa67498…
11-04 04:07:27	Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x9c9fa8…
11-04 04:07:27	Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x93b207…
11-04 04:07:27	Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x89e896…
11-04 04:07:27	Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x63a688…
11-04 04:07:27	Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x5cfb0c…
11-04 04:07:27	Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x5b0427…
11-04 04:07:27	Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x13a1f3…
11-04 04:07:27	Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x0574b2…
11-04 04:07:27	Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x018273…
11-04 03:44:13	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,926	92¢	$2,701	0xa4ffec…
11-04 00:24:00	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	486	80¢	$389	0xe00ec2…
11-04 00:23:58	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	351	80¢	$281	0x30c5c9…
11-04 00:23:57	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,077	80¢	$862	0x1e9280…
11-04 00:23:55	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	107	80¢	$86	0x73f690…
11-04 00:23:55	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	215	80¢	$172	0x246064…
11-04 00:23:55	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	21	80¢	$17	0x20da82…
11-04 00:23:54	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,000	80¢	$800	0xe30d36…
11-04 00:23:54	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	43	80¢	$34	0x9da2e7…
11-04 00:23:54	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	43	80¢	$34	0x7e4896…
11-04 00:23:54	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,000	80¢	$800	0x06c748…
11-04 00:23:51	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,954	80¢	$1,563	0x97f644…
11-04 00:23:51	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	21	80¢	$17	0x5e2dc6…
11-04 00:23:51	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,552	80¢	$1,242	0x593dcd…
11-04 00:23:51	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,000	80¢	$800	0x434262…
11-04 00:23:46	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	26	80¢	$21	0x0c3f79…
11-04 00:23:45	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	21	80¢	$17	0xd13494…
11-04 00:23:45	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	86	80¢	$69	0xc0cdac…
11-04 00:23:45	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	21	80¢	$17	0xb8d864…
11-04 00:23:45	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	86	80¢	$69	0x851d95…
11-04 00:23:45	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	66	80¢	$53	0x827469…
11-04 00:23:43	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	107	80¢	$86	0xedaeed…
11-04 00:23:43	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	21	80¢	$17	0xc99c50…
11-04 00:23:43	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	64	80¢	$51	0x95647b…
11-04 00:23:42	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	225	80¢	$180	0xbdb006…
11-04 00:23:42	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	86	80¢	$69	0x971271…
11-04 00:23:40	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	98	80¢	$78	0xdf814f…
11-04 00:23:40	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	215	80¢	$172	0x982e0b…
11-04 00:23:40	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	8	80¢	$6	0x3c0baa…
11-04 00:14:00	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,517	98¢	$1,490	0x521b3c…
11-04 00:13:58	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	208	98¢	$204	0xf6e3d2…
11-04 00:13:58	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xf6c3d2…
11-04 00:13:58	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xd3b8b1…
11-04 00:13:58	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	18,025	98¢	$17,700	0xb85ec3…
11-04 00:13:58	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x76eac5…
11-04 00:13:58	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x3a0ddb…
11-04 00:13:58	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x31fc66…
11-03 22:34:15	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10,000	76¢	$7,600	0x7e8ba1…
11-03 06:51:37	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	5,234	74¢	$3,873	0x5dc172…
11-03 06:49:30	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	404	74¢	$299	0xfed8c5…
11-03 06:49:24	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	12	74¢	$9	0xc88d88…
11-03 06:41:51	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	11	74¢	$8	0xff8fdf…
11-03 06:41:36	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	3,710	74¢	$2,745	0x837a43…
11-03 06:41:10	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	423	74¢	$313	0x048cb4…
11-03 06:40:51	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	6	74¢	$4	0x809fed…
11-03 06:40:51	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	23	74¢	$17	0x6d1b0d…
11-03 06:40:51	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	35	74¢	$26	0x448a89…
11-03 06:40:43	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	380	74¢	$281	0xa5f82b…
11-03 06:39:58	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	13	74¢	$10	0xb51f97…
11-03 06:39:27	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	64	74¢	$47	0xc54d8b…
11-03 06:39:27	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	98	74¢	$73	0x9b4d1e…
11-03 06:39:19	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	600	74¢	$444	0xcaebdf…
11-03 06:39:16	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0xf400c9…
11-03 06:37:00	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	15	74¢	$11	0x43610b…
11-03 06:34:16	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	192	74¢	$142	0xb43e3e…
11-03 06:22:39	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0xb4c8c2…
11-03 06:17:42	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x244bc9…
11-03 06:11:00	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	928	74¢	$686	0xbf27c3…
11-03 06:10:46	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	96	74¢	$71	0x51d9b2…
11-03 06:10:43	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	19	74¢	$14	0x5a394b…
11-03 06:10:28	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	3,395	74¢	$2,512	0xe8f6dc…
11-03 06:09:19	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	80	74¢	$59	0x341b61…