These-Claim — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$205

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$13

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-17

last 06-04 15:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

39% — —

Other

38% 100% +$1

Crypto

10% — —

Tech

6% — —

Sports

6% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+7	$5	100¢	$7	+$2	05-31 13:20
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	+6	$5	73¢	$4	$-1	06-02 13:10
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+7	$1	10¢	$1	$-0	06-01 14:14
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+14	$1	4¢	$1	$-0	06-01 14:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	1	$15	16	0	+16	open	—	03-01 02:27
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$12	13	0	+13	Yes	+$1	03-10 13:28
spx up or down on january 21 2026	1	$11	16	0	+16	open	—	01-21 14:33
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	1	$8	42	0	+42	open	—	01-17 15:15
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	3	$7	5	5	+0	Yes	+$1	04-06 07:30
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	2	$7	8	0	+8	open	—	03-15 13:02
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	03-08 08:14
will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	1	$6	7	0	+7	open	—	03-05 12:08
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	2	$6	6	6	+0	open	—	01-25 12:07
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	3	$5	4	4	+0	open	—	04-27 02:20
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	03-15 12:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	05-31 13:20
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	2	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	03-18 15:03
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	06-02 13:10
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-17 13:12
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	2	$4	7	0	+7	open	—	03-18 15:02
will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	2	$4	5	0	+5	open	—	03-11 12:28
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	1	$4	5	0	+5	open	—	01-25 12:07
will james talarico be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	1	$3	4	0	+4	open	—	02-27 11:44
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	2	$3	8	0	+8	open	—	03-18 15:02
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	1	$2	2	0	+2	Yes	+$0	03-15 13:03
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	1	$2	6	0	+6	open	—	03-15 12:57
bitcoin above 72k on march 16	1	$2	5	0	+5	open	—	03-15 12:58
Trump weaponization fund blocked by June 30?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	05-22 12:29
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	1	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	03-15 12:57
bitcoin above 70k on march 1	1	$2	16	0	+16	open	—	03-01 02:23
spx opens up or down on march 2 2026	1	$2	6	0	+6	open	—	03-01 02:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$2	5	0	+5	open	—	03-15 13:01
will pete hegseth ban claude by march 31	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	02-27 11:52
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	03-10 13:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-04 15:26:36	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xd1b698…
06-02 13:11:23	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xcb0cf3…
06-02 13:10:14	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x777c2a…
06-02 13:09:52	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0xec91c4…
06-01 14:14:37	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xb81a1c…
06-01 14:14:23	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x88ee21…
05-31 13:20:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x44986a…
05-31 13:19:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x11ef1f…
05-31 13:19:36	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xdc3614…
05-31 13:19:34	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xf0ef6f…
05-24 05:17:43	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xc85e74…
05-22 12:29:30	Trump weaponization fund blocked by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x3b20e2…
04-27 02:20:42	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	4	75¢	$3	0x16396b…
04-21 13:22:06	will the virginia redistricting referendum pass	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x15a11e…
04-17 13:14:12	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x6e6a6e…
04-17 13:13:06	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xb552dc…
04-17 13:12:58	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xbaf695…
04-17 13:07:58	bitcoin above 76k on april 17	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x328045…
04-17 13:05:44	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x02c93d…
04-17 13:03:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x2337dd…
04-06 07:30:01	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	SELL	5	93¢	$4	0x340a12…
03-18 15:03:33	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x9b8dcc…
03-18 15:03:05	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x7bcef3…
03-18 15:02:57	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	Yes	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xbb944e…
03-18 15:02:51	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x3b750d…
03-17 15:15:15	Will Nikema Williams be the Democratic Nominee for GA-05?	Yes	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x65fcd4…
03-17 15:12:53	ethereum above 2400 on march 17	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xcabe1c…
03-17 15:07:09	will trump visit china by march 31	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xcb50f6…
03-17 15:07:03	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xb1d729…
03-17 15:06:53	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xc115c0…
03-16 13:24:11	spx up or down on march 16 2026	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xc687c3…
03-16 13:22:15	will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xdb4ee5…
03-16 13:21:41	will usa win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x5d40c5…
03-15 13:10:45	btc updown 5m 1773580200	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xcf4d69…
03-15 13:04:53	will teyana taylor win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xa53a37…
03-15 13:04:45	will amy madigan win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x9e69bf…
03-15 13:03:55	will solana reach 100 in march 2026	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x541adc…
03-15 13:03:09	Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	Yes	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x607b54…
03-15 13:02:51	will t lm be the next president of vietnam	Yes	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xb2a51c…
03-15 13:01:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x1b55e1…
03-15 12:58:37	bitcoin above 72k on march 16	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x72e6df…
03-15 12:57:53	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xa91480…
03-15 12:57:37	US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xe3bdc3…
03-15 12:57:29	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x355e8a…
03-15 12:57:21	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x159cf3…
03-15 12:57:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xb8f304…
03-15 12:56:47	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x36835a…
03-15 12:56:19	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	Yes	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xf28f56…
03-15 12:56:15	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x843c0f…
03-15 12:56:05	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xf7706d…
03-11 12:42:49	bitcoin above 70k on march 12	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x160473…
03-11 12:37:47	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xea2553…
03-11 12:37:37	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xb5bbe5…
03-11 12:37:15	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x7f00d3…
03-11 12:36:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xd4988a…
03-11 12:34:25	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x3b7f46…
03-11 12:34:07	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x32a028…
03-11 12:28:45	Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xd51a6f…
03-11 12:28:21	will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x237537…
03-10 13:28:33	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x354ff2…
03-10 13:23:33	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x362b33…
03-10 13:21:45	spx opens up or down on march 10 2026	Up	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0x1aeeb1…
03-08 08:15:09	will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x5aee0d…
03-08 08:14:21	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x4212b9…
03-05 12:10:25	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x8aacd3…
03-05 12:09:29	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x0247f1…
03-05 12:08:57	will balendra balen shah be the next prime minister of nepal	Yes	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xaba7e0…
03-05 12:08:33	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x480286…
03-05 12:08:21	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	Yes	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0xc6360d…
03-05 12:07:41	will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 124 949 438 563 647 712 323	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x7ce2e1…
03-05 12:06:53	spx opens up or down on march 5 2026	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xa15d92…
03-05 12:06:19	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x7c24a7…
03-01 02:28:01	spx opens up or down on march 2 2026	Up	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0xa77b89…
03-01 02:27:13	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0x516b97…
03-01 02:26:15	bitcoin above 68k on march 1	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xb7a613…
03-01 02:23:53	bitcoin above 70k on march 1	Yes	BUY	16	13¢	$2	0x34f5e8…
03-01 02:22:45	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x12a71e…
03-01 02:19:11	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x442da1…
03-01 02:19:07	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x35086a…
02-27 11:59:11	btc updown 5m 1772193600	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x31420a…
02-27 11:58:53	btc updown 5m 1772193300	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x92fedb…
02-27 11:52:13	will pete hegseth ban claude by march 31	No	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xaabb48…
02-27 11:48:23	spx opens up or down on february 27 2026	Up	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0x88bca6…
02-27 11:47:27	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xa07e6f…
02-27 11:47:11	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xbcbed9…
02-27 11:45:01	will t lm be the next president of vietnam	Yes	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xd72fdf…
02-27 11:44:07	will james talarico be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	Yes	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x226425…
02-27 11:41:21	us strikes iran by february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x0557d5…
02-27 11:41:09	US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xe9e084…
02-27 11:41:01	US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x14923f…
02-27 11:40:53	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xf2828a…
01-25 12:07:34	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xb1bfc4…
01-25 12:07:06	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	55¢	$3	0x4e96a9…
01-21 14:33:40	spx up or down on january 21 2026	Up	BUY	16	67¢	$11	0x778445…
01-17 15:15:26	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0xeb18ca…
01-17 15:15:08	us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	Yes	BUY	42	19¢	$8	0x0af22e…