Second-Hand-Ceramic — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$70

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

99.1%

Resolved

Trades

222

lifetime

Volume

$4.56K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

$119

4 positions

First seen

2026-04-16

last 06-30 21:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

43% 100% +$81

Other

28% 0% $-11

Crypto

26% — —

Tech

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 25 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	+100	$49	36¢	$36	$-14	06-04 21:35
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	+100	$22	31¢	$31	+$9	06-11 09:12
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	+50	$31	59¢	$30	$-2	06-11 16:58
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?	No	+45	$22	50¢	$23	+$0	06-08 08:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	10	$980	600	600	+0	No	+$68	05-05 23:27
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	8	$349	200	200	+0	open	—	05-01 08:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	5	$332	173	173	+0	open	—	05-16 00:52
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	8	$298	146	186	-40	open	—	05-20 09:40
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	3	$290	151	151	+0	open	—	05-22 03:57
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	8	$227	290	0	+290	open	—	05-17 13:10
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	3	$217	20	220	-200	open	—	06-02 00:16
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	4	$186	100	100	+0	No	+$13	05-12 14:24
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	2	$179	100	100	+0	open	—	05-12 15:59
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May?	8	$157	100	100	+0	open	—	06-01 03:51
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	3	$125	80	80	+0	open	—	05-11 14:03
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31?	4	$113	60	60	+0	open	—	06-01 02:06
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$100	105	0	+105	open	—	04-22 11:37
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	12	$84	73	70	+2	open	—	04-30 04:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	2	$74	39	39	+0	open	—	05-11 14:58
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	2	$52	29	29	+0	open	—	05-09 15:24
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	2	$49	100	0	+100	open	—	06-04 21:35
will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	1	$45	50	0	+50	open	—	06-30 01:39
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	7	$44	30	30	+0	open	—	04-24 16:02
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	1	$36	50	0	+50	open	—	05-22 16:19
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	2	$35	20	20	+0	open	—	05-09 15:23
will openais valuation hit low 700b by december 31 939 865	3	$35	50	0	+50	open	—	06-04 07:47
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	1	$31	50	0	+50	open	—	06-11 16:58
btc updown 5m 1776586800	2	$31	36	0	+36	open	—	04-19 08:24
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?	1	$29	60	0	+60	open	—	06-02 21:29
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$25	30	0	+30	open	—	05-13 15:32
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?	2	$24	40	0	+40	open	—	06-19 09:04
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?	3	$22	45	0	+45	open	—	06-08 08:34
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	1	$22	100	0	+100	open	—	06-11 09:12
will russia capture all of rodynske again by september 30	1	$22	50	0	+50	open	—	06-30 21:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 21:12:14	will russia capture all of rodynske again by september 30	No	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0xf8dd2d…
06-30 01:39:05	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x07398c…
06-22 17:43:14	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 spread home 2pt5	France	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x73b982…
06-22 02:20:25	Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x8fe3cc…
06-22 02:15:41	Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0x528873…
06-21 16:12:29	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0x00ad90…
06-21 15:23:43	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x4a707f…
06-20 16:47:59	Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xd867d1…
06-19 09:04:19	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?	No	BUY	34	60¢	$20	0x8dc89f…
06-18 13:31:02	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?	No	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0x333a51…
06-11 16:58:28	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0xb5cd0d…
06-11 09:12:48	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0xf92792…
06-08 08:34:33	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?	No	BUY	18	50¢	$9	0xe9ad40…
06-05 20:17:36	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x0d1267…
06-04 21:35:54	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	19	49¢	$9	0x0ba4d7…
06-04 10:15:58	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	81	49¢	$40	0x64c966…
06-04 07:47:54	will openais valuation hit low 700b by december 31 939 865	No	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x82a5b6…
06-04 06:48:46	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?	No	BUY	25	50¢	$12	0xd7cb33…
06-03 20:16:01	will openais valuation hit low 700b by december 31 939 865	No	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x6d12bd…
06-03 19:42:31	will openais valuation hit low 700b by december 31 939 865	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x7c221a…
06-02 21:29:54	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?	No	BUY	60	49¢	$29	0xd6f496…
06-02 04:38:20	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x967da7…
06-02 00:16:30	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	99¢	$199	0xc883d7…
06-01 16:28:46	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x76a81c…
06-01 16:01:54	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0xe87997…
06-01 03:51:02	Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x559954…
06-01 02:06:15	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31?	No	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0x205171…
05-24 14:30:47	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xdc87b4…
05-22 16:19:03	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	No	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0x96f50b…
05-22 03:57:45	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	151	100¢	$151	0xaab1ac…
05-20 09:41:51	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	113	93¢	$105	0xac91d2…
05-20 09:40:58	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	SELL	106	95¢	$100	0x6c3a9e…
05-20 08:26:48	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xfd153f…
05-20 05:32:23	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	38	89¢	$34	0x1d68e8…
05-20 05:06:17	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	SELL	35	95¢	$33	0xca2e21…
05-19 05:19:11	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	67	91¢	$61	0x037cc2…
05-18 16:11:52	Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May?	No	SELL	19	81¢	$16	0x2c0d6b…
05-18 09:06:59	Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May?	No	SELL	56	81¢	$45	0xcef21c…
05-17 13:10:01	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	61	84¢	$52	0x737fba…
05-16 20:49:51	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0x27e0af…
05-16 18:06:08	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	85	84¢	$71	0x5a1ecb…
05-16 00:52:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	160	100¢	$160	0x1dca30…
05-14 10:39:40	Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	4	21¢	$1	0xa76cde…
05-14 10:39:09	Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0x9b59a4…
05-14 10:33:43	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xeb4191…
05-14 10:31:41	Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	15	21¢	$3	0x37ccde…
05-14 10:23:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x58d46d…
05-13 15:32:59	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0xd06eca…
05-12 15:59:31	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0xf55137…
05-12 14:28:04	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x01a500…
05-12 14:24:06	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x0b8c36…
05-11 14:58:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0x760f0a…
05-11 14:06:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x3a55ca…
05-11 14:03:23	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	SELL	80	80¢	$64	0x209008…
05-10 15:46:32	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	No	BUY	40	91¢	$36	0x3b040e…
05-10 14:26:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	39	90¢	$35	0xc1b310…
05-10 14:14:51	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	SELL	40	87¢	$35	0xeee83c…
05-10 02:06:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x8f9752…
05-10 02:05:29	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xa80bf4…
05-09 15:29:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	53	87¢	$46	0x54aa8f…
05-09 15:24:49	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	No	SELL	29	94¢	$27	0xc8d899…
05-09 15:23:33	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0xf847c8…
05-09 15:18:43	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x128575…
05-07 11:22:04	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	No	BUY	40	83¢	$33	0xf0a347…
05-07 02:15:57	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31?	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x4b021a…
05-06 23:19:00	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31?	No	BUY	35	88¢	$31	0x451f26…
05-06 21:44:17	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31?	No	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0x682223…
05-06 17:44:03	Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?	No	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xb2f7e6…
05-06 16:45:37	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xa5bf3b…
05-06 15:31:15	Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?	No	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0xe9f766…
05-05 23:27:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	169	90¢	$152	0x380027…
05-05 23:26:24	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	18	90¢	$16	0x5e676a…
05-05 23:25:56	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	13	90¢	$12	0xf822ed…
05-05 19:00:04	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	40	82¢	$33	0x9df336…
05-05 18:30:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	56	86¢	$48	0xcff933…
05-05 18:29:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x73a8bd…
05-05 18:26:56	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	143	86¢	$123	0xca1d30…
05-05 14:14:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x2c4906…
05-05 13:52:54	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0xc469a5…
05-05 13:23:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	200	86¢	$172	0x69b1e9…
05-04 22:21:38	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	37	80¢	$30	0xff5f69…
05-04 17:49:16	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	2	80¢	$1	0x199bdb…
05-04 16:20:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	200	57¢	$114	0xe78f95…
05-03 13:38:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x7364ff…
05-02 17:36:48	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x921ff1…
05-02 14:38:56	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	35	69¢	$24	0x65be65…
05-02 09:43:46	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	80	76¢	$61	0x74e152…
05-02 04:02:58	Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x11c8ca…
05-02 03:37:24	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic	Pistons	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0x58c828…
05-02 00:31:32	Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May?	No	BUY	0	71¢	$0	0xf0fc5c…
05-01 22:47:50	Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May?	No	BUY	11	71¢	$7	0x7a5fef…
05-01 22:47:50	Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May?	No	BUY	89	71¢	$63	0x505466…
05-01 22:31:44	Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May?	No	BUY	0	71¢	$0	0x01f2e8…
05-01 21:33:06	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	No	BUY	29	84¢	$24	0xb86f53…
05-01 16:28:58	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x0661e2…
05-01 10:44:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xbc6875…
05-01 08:10:52	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	SELL	200	98¢	$195	0x41e6d9…
05-01 06:48:00	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x879d50…
05-01 02:19:26	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	BUY	32	77¢	$24	0xc04529…
05-01 02:19:26	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	BUY	41	77¢	$32	0xbdfac7…