Runny-Reservoir — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$17.1K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.13K

Hit rate

78.1%

Resolved

805

Trades

17,629

lifetime

Volume

$973.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$55

Open exposure

$9.71K

18 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-30 06:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 221 days

Categories

Politics

55% 82% -$5,292

Sports

23% 66% +$1,296

Other

18% 58% -$11,136

Crypto

3% 35% -$1,967

Tech

1% 25% +$1

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$21

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 344 trades/day

Open positions (18) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	+10,592	$8,055	90¢	$9.5K	+$1,425	10-30 18:51
Anduril IPO before 2027?	Yes	+4,141	$349	2¢	$70	-$279	10-15 06:21
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	+1,114	$223	4¢	$39	-$184	10-28 19:00
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	+77	$45	41¢	$32	-$13	09-29 06:05
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	+22	$22	100¢	$22	+$0	09-26 14:53
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+152	$17	13¢	$20	+$3	10-09 20:58
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+50	$11	19¢	$10	-$1	10-15 08:12
Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?	Yes	+50	$9	18¢	$9	$0	10-05 18:41
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	+2,537	$194	0¢	$8	-$186	10-22 22:46
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+15	-$103	42¢	$6	+$109	10-29 00:06
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+50	$5	10¢	$5	$0	10-29 09:34
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+50	$3	6¢	$3	+$0	10-29 09:34
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+1,600	$13	0¢	$2	-$11	08-21 19:00
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	-402	-$200	0¢	$-1	+$199	07-27 14:34
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	Yes	-20	-$1	5¢	$-1	$0	07-07 18:23
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	-40	-$50	0¢	$-0	+$50	08-23 14:51
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	+132	$3	0¢	$0	-$3	10-11 10:50
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+0	-$21	3¢	$0	+$21	08-21 04:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	247	$59.9K	31,274	34,712	-3,438	Yes	+$1,376	03-02 03:54
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	366	$58.0K	35,106	32,356	+2,750	No	+$2,475	04-01 01:09
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	175	$28.6K	33,526	12,341	+21,185	Yes	-$5,967	04-09 22:10
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	174	$27.4K	14,694	14,694	+0	Yes	+$453	08-09 21:50
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	144	$21.4K	11,720	12,015	-295	No	+$776	03-15 18:34
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	93	$19.5K	10,291	10,491	-200	No	+$638	02-21 05:14
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	104	$18.4K	12,436	11,301	+1,135	Yes	-$413	02-27 15:29
Titans vs. Giants	157	$16.3K	9,204	9,204	+0	Giants	+$1,430	09-27 20:00
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	174	$16.0K	13,623	7,116	+6,508	Yes	-$4,611	04-08 00:47
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	103	$15.2K	7,526	8,794	-1,268	No	+$164	03-06 07:34
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	67	$14.4K	7,517	8,061	-544	No	+$388	02-27 15:27
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?	347	$13.0K	6,197	8,845	-2,647	Yes	+$725	10-06 01:10
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	73	$12.9K	5,638	7,522	-1,884	No	+$80	02-20 02:04
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	300	$12.1K	12,873	2,281	+10,592	open	—	10-30 18:51
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 31 483 852 436 833 347 948	172	$11.4K	6,498	7,610	-1,112	Yes	+$483	03-07 11:47
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	113	$10.7K	5,847	5,847	+0	Yes	+$186	08-12 05:13
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	115	$10.6K	8,829	9,388	-559	Yes	-$1,352	01-31 13:58
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees	163	$10.4K	6,375	6,212	+163	New York Yankees	+$344	09-30 03:07
Cardinals vs. 49ers	80	$9.9K	5,284	5,235	+49	49ers	+$397	09-27 23:15
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	108	$9.1K	4,505	5,957	-1,452	No	-$95	03-21 08:12
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	47	$8.7K	3,538	5,347	-1,810	No	+$128	02-22 04:11
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	261	$8.7K	9,030	9,328	-298	No	-$818	03-29 03:28
epstein blackmail evidence released by march 31	78	$7.5K	2,547	5,936	-3,388	Yes	+$383	01-31 13:39
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	36	$7.5K	4,094	3,697	+397	No	+$264	02-07 03:51
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 15 153 144 999 648 116 955 829 149	128	$7.3K	5,285	5,216	+69	Yes	+$191	03-03 18:48
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	29	$6.9K	3,948	3,828	+120	No	+$367	02-01 03:55
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	65	$6.8K	6,785	5,555	+1,230	No	-$600	09-16 17:10
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	86	$6.7K	3,618	3,618	+0	Yes	+$379	08-03 04:49
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	40	$6.7K	5,136	2,200	+2,936	No	+$463	02-13 08:48
mlb mil lad 2026 10 14	78	$6.5K	4,255	4,155	+100	Milwaukee Brewers	+$151	10-15 03:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 18:51:09	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0xb01e18…
10-30 06:56:34	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0x707ea2…
10-29 15:53:13	Perplexity IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xd05f91…
10-29 13:01:29	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	96¢	$10	0xf4a081…
10-29 09:34:38	Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x786c31…
10-29 09:34:31	Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xbacf66…
10-29 08:23:37	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x9d4a03…
10-29 05:53:14	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x6acd1a…
10-29 02:52:29	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	SELL	126	99¢	$126	0x2ca4f4…
10-29 02:51:20	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x87092a…
10-29 02:49:25	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x1ea148…
10-29 02:49:22	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	SELL	33	99¢	$32	0x94b922…
10-29 02:48:34	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x1321c5…
10-29 02:48:26	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x8d1386…
10-29 02:29:41	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xe16c74…
10-29 02:18:32	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Milwaukee Brewers	SELL	119	95¢	$113	0xbb866e…
10-29 01:45:04	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xaba19a…
10-29 01:41:01	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xa47168…
10-29 01:40:59	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0xf5f70b…
10-29 01:40:59	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x78139e…
10-29 01:31:43	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	19	82¢	$16	0x00ccb9…
10-29 01:18:46	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xc07414…
10-29 01:18:46	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	30	91¢	$28	0x1fb181…
10-29 01:13:07	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x4c762d…
10-29 01:05:59	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0x758c3d…
10-29 01:05:59	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	16	92¢	$15	0x4f0f1b…
10-29 01:05:59	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	16	92¢	$15	0x3ef583…
10-29 00:58:38	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xd7f74f…
10-29 00:58:29	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	15	92¢	$14	0x76b3f6…
10-29 00:55:41	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0x12ff06…
10-29 00:54:35	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0x2b9a54…
10-29 00:47:26	Milwaukee Brewers winning after 5 innings?	Yes	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x502801…
10-29 00:40:56	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	0	92¢	$0	0xa0ea84…
10-29 00:39:41	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x16c1a6…
10-29 00:36:16	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	15	92¢	$14	0x537ab6…
10-29 00:36:16	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x02b6de…
10-29 00:32:35	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0x259e8f…
10-29 00:06:40	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x43fd5a…
10-29 00:06:14	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x7d60a3…
10-28 21:40:58	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	517	51¢	$264	0xb21d3f…
10-28 21:39:34	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0x7a6436…
10-28 21:38:55	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0xaeb3bf…
10-28 21:38:43	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	49	51¢	$25	0x806813…
10-28 21:38:34	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	3	51¢	$2	0xfcf6e4…
10-28 21:37:53	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0x8eaa34…
10-28 21:37:52	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	4	51¢	$2	0xd9e74f…
10-28 21:36:25	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	64	51¢	$33	0x5d5f4b…
10-28 21:36:19	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	8	51¢	$4	0x5e0194…
10-28 21:34:53	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x50153d…
10-28 21:34:47	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	39	51¢	$20	0x892e88…
10-28 21:34:28	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1	51¢	$0	0x19f5ca…
10-28 21:34:26	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	0	51¢	$0	0xa23560…
10-28 21:34:07	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	6	51¢	$3	0xb10dbb…
10-28 21:34:04	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	4	51¢	$2	0xd081e0…
10-28 21:33:31	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	196	51¢	$100	0xdebab5…
10-28 21:23:29	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x998f0b…
10-28 21:04:17	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	81	95¢	$77	0xcfa59a…
10-28 21:01:04	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	107	50¢	$54	0xc67ba6…
10-28 21:01:02	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x764ea3…
10-28 21:01:01	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	53	50¢	$26	0x391190…
10-28 20:59:08	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0x7f3cd8…
10-28 20:03:29	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	200	48¢	$96	0x473c7c…
10-28 19:44:17	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x8ba660…
10-28 19:43:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	305	49¢	$149	0x334e9f…
10-28 19:43:34	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	180	49¢	$88	0x0784ec…
10-28 19:42:25	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x23c212…
10-28 19:41:53	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	25	50¢	$12	0x64f525…
10-28 19:02:23	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1,450	53¢	$769	0xa40ef5…
10-28 19:01:44	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	5	53¢	$2	0x9c6fe2…
10-28 19:01:43	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	26	53¢	$14	0x5797bc…
10-28 19:01:26	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	26	53¢	$14	0x38c434…
10-28 19:01:10	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	111	53¢	$59	0x3bc016…
10-28 19:00:17	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x6b0dd8…
10-28 19:00:11	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x72f235…
10-28 18:57:40	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x04d8c9…
10-28 18:56:40	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x2275cd…
10-28 18:17:29	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x86281a…
10-28 16:50:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	200	5¢	$9	0xe1245d…
10-28 16:34:25	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x172f14…
10-28 16:10:43	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	60	96¢	$57	0x2fa2eb…
10-28 14:41:40	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,236	3¢	$41	0x28d5ca…
10-28 13:40:34	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x5df5de…
10-28 13:36:32	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xcfef50…
10-28 12:56:04	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xcada2b…
10-28 09:29:44	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0x7f7992…
10-28 05:30:11	Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	SELL	176	14¢	$25	0xf60da6…
10-28 04:26:11	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	39	22¢	$9	0xdfafaa…
10-28 04:24:16	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Milwaukee Brewers	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0x6e6089…
10-28 04:21:16	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0x5a1a9e…
10-28 04:15:58	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	15	84¢	$13	0xdc9991…
10-28 04:15:58	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	75	84¢	$63	0xc8a5fd…
10-28 04:15:58	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x5d29ba…
10-28 03:49:58	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	200	45¢	$90	0xb08050…
10-28 03:44:52	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	163	46¢	$75	0xde6ef9…
10-28 03:44:49	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	34	46¢	$16	0x24675a…
10-28 03:44:07	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0x995701…
10-28 03:44:03	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	57	47¢	$27	0x380422…
10-28 03:43:46	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	143	47¢	$67	0x391233…
10-28 03:18:39	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x567b00…
10-28 03:17:30	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	SELL	240	95¢	$228	0x33bad8…