Prize-Cobbler — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$797

Unrealized P&L

-$612

Hit rate

78.3%

Resolved

Trades

287

lifetime

Volume

$242.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$846

Open exposure

$8.60K

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-29 13:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 41 days

Categories

Other

87% 64% +$2,630

Politics

10% 42% -$3,129

Sports

2% 50% -$305

Tech

1% 100% +$243

Pop-Culture

0% 50% -$242

Crypto

0% 87% +$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+6,654	$5,190	70¢	$4.7K	-$499	10-29 13:18
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+2,076	$1,931	94¢	$2.0K	+$31	10-28 19:08
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?	No	-1,158	-$1,084	96¢	$-1115	-$31	10-28 15:25
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	-357	-$332	97¢	$-346	-$14	08-14 22:23
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+621	$237	40¢	$251	+$14	09-18 14:30
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	+308	$200	54¢	$165	-$35	05-12 04:02
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+577	$144	12¢	$66	-$78	09-18 14:31
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-2	-$1	66¢	$-1	$0	07-31 22:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	31	$48.1K	29,402	24,687	+4,715	Yes	+$686	03-12 13:57
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	15	$35.1K	30,580	6,663	+23,917	Yes	+$2,067	04-29 00:37
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	3	$34.6K	15,708	20,091	-4,384	Yes	+$927	01-27 23:05
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	13	$24.2K	21,539	6,848	+14,691	Yes	+$763	06-18 04:50
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	3	$18.7K	5,165	14,454	-9,289	Yes	-$540	06-07 17:28
Fed rate hike in 2026?	4	$9.5K	8,220	8,220	+0	Yes	-$1,152	08-07 16:29
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	10	$6.2K	5,305	5,305	+0	No	-$2,740	10-04 22:28
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	4	$5.8K	7,820	7,820	+0	open	—	10-29 12:57
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	4	$5.7K	7,633	7,633	+0	open	—	10-29 12:59
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	2	$5.2K	6,654	0	+6,654	open	—	10-29 13:18
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	5	$4.2K	2,622	2,622	+0	Yes	-$305	03-27 15:28
netanyahu out by march 31 854	2	$4.1K	2,034	2,034	+0	No	+$8	03-31 12:43
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	3	$3.7K	1,934	1,934	+0	Yes	+$202	10-28 18:49
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	3	$3.2K	1,961	1,961	+0	Yes	+$645	04-14 04:40
will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	4	$3.0K	4,297	0	+4,297	Yes	+$1,308	02-25 01:32
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	2	$2.0K	1,249	1,249	+0	open	—	09-16 20:07
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	2	$1.9K	2,076	0	+2,076	open	—	10-28 19:08
will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	3	$1.7K	1,960	706	+1,255	No	-$1,054	03-02 13:43
Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2	$1.7K	930	930	+0	Yes	+$101	10-04 22:54
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?	4	$1.5K	1,615	0	+1,615	No	+$119	06-11 20:14
will a minecraft movie be the top grossing movie of 2025	1	$1.5K	0	1,463	-1,463	Yes	-$1	01-05 03:45
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May Meeting?	1	$1.2K	1,267	0	+1,267	Yes	+$67	05-12 04:00
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?	1	$1.2K	1,221	0	+1,221	Yes	+$56	09-16 20:10
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?	3	$1.1K	0	1,158	-1,158	open	—	10-28 15:25
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31?	3	$1.0K	543	543	+0	Yes	+$42	05-31 23:23
will trumps approval rating be between 39pt5 and 39pt9 on april 3 2026	8	$996	1,470	0	+1,470	No	-$996	04-03 11:59
will trumps approval rating be between 40pt0 and 40pt4 on march 27 2026	17	$929	650	650	+0	Yes	+$353	03-28 03:48
will sinners win best picture at the 98th academy awards	4	$894	4,041	0	+4,041	No	-$894	02-25 01:31
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$892	769	769	+0	Yes	-$108	09-09 19:55
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$867	577	577	+0	No	+$183	04-13 13:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 13:18:20	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,397	78¢	$3,430	0x6d9946…
10-29 12:59:25	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	7,633	45¢	$3,435	0xc46403…
10-29 12:58:49	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,256	78¢	$1,760	0x5161c5…
10-29 12:57:11	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	7,820	23¢	$1,760	0xb3e5fa…
10-28 19:08:31	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	2,075	93¢	$1,930	0x1b5f95…
10-28 18:49:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,934	100¢	$1,932	0xe9960b…
10-28 15:25:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	884	95¢	$837	0xe2a10e…
10-28 15:25:04	Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?	No	SELL	899	93¢	$837	0x00dd14…
10-19 16:53:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,050	85¢	$893	0x3cefff…
10-04 22:54:34	Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	930	97¢	$901	0x9f97de…
10-04 22:28:50	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	27	1¢	$0	0x740ba7…
10-04 22:22:01	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	98	85¢	$84	0x84be20…
10-04 21:58:35	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	2,626	2¢	$56	0x554124…
10-04 21:58:08	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,150	2¢	$20	0xaf713a…
10-04 21:57:35	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	SELL	233	3¢	$7	0xe872d0…
09-20 05:55:18	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	2,001	29¢	$580	0xe3a88e…
09-20 05:54:31	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	2,082	52¢	$1,085	0xf3bf28…
09-20 05:44:04	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	2,652	64¢	$1,693	0x7ac2e1…
09-18 14:31:04	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	574	25¢	$143	0xaf10a4…
09-18 14:30:36	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	618	38¢	$236	0xc85fb4…
09-18 05:38:37	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	4,839	31¢	$1,500	0x225d39…
09-18 05:38:15	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	4,942	51¢	$2,500	0x508d83…
09-18 05:30:00	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	640	55¢	$350	0xf1cfa8…
09-16 20:10:12	No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,221	95¢	$1,165	0x4380e1…
09-16 20:07:40	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,249	94¢	$1,175	0xfaccab…
09-10 15:12:52	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	793	29¢	$230	0x2f9966…
09-10 15:12:33	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	795	54¢	$431	0xda6d93…
09-09 19:58:07	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	489	78¢	$382	0x34c38c…
09-09 19:55:42	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	769	51¢	$392	0x0354d6…
09-01 21:08:55	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,151	87¢	$998	0x5f526e…
09-01 21:06:57	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	233	86¢	$200	0x6cf640…
09-01 19:21:37	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	288	80¢	$230	0x3292b6…
09-01 19:18:36	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	233	99¢	$230	0x4a52f9…
08-14 22:24:09	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	452	84¢	$380	0xcaff85…
08-14 22:23:39	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	357	93¢	$332	0x3788ab…
08-14 02:06:37	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x4c808b…
08-14 02:06:37	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x2d0e56…
08-13 19:16:13	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,183	84¢	$1,000	0x831ff3…
08-07 17:49:37	will harry kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 ballon dor	Yes	BUY	930	86¢	$800	0xabe85d…
08-07 17:43:55	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,155	87¢	$1,000	0x8f7734…
08-07 17:42:01	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	233	86¢	$200	0x02fc2f…
08-07 17:38:42	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	769	65¢	$500	0xdbd987…
08-07 17:19:54	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x195f81…
08-07 17:19:33	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	586	85¢	$500	0xb5e22f…
08-07 16:29:36	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8,220	51¢	$4,192	0x68336d…
07-31 22:12:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	38¢	$1	0x13411f…
07-31 22:04:56	Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0x9b2e18…
06-18 04:50:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,628	80¢	$3,698	0xec02ce…
06-18 03:59:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	633	79¢	$500	0xb2de4a…
06-18 03:19:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	625	80¢	$500	0xb4c8a8…
06-17 20:29:38	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,200	65¢	$2,079	0x2335de…
06-17 20:29:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,935	73¢	$2,143	0xd18556…
06-17 20:24:25	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,956	65¢	$3,230	0xf50e1d…
06-17 19:43:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3,913	76¢	$2,974	0x52369f…
06-14 15:44:06	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x4b1f84…
06-14 15:37:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x5f758f…
06-13 19:00:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,226	93¢	$3,000	0xc91809…
06-12 20:48:42	Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?	No	SELL	115	97¢	$111	0x7ce4c7…
06-11 20:14:33	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	BUY	520	94¢	$489	0x906637…
06-11 20:12:06	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt8t	No	BUY	264	91¢	$240	0xd3dab1…
06-11 20:09:40	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	SELL	250	97¢	$243	0xa0fcdf…
06-10 03:49:54	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	55¢	$35	0x7b9d32…
06-10 03:44:03	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	Yes	BUY	443	91¢	$402	0xe6acc3…
06-10 03:17:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x47af8d…
06-10 02:42:25	ECB rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	443	99¢	$440	0xd296ea…
06-07 17:31:27	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0xc8e22b…
06-07 17:31:06	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt8t	No	BUY	444	90¢	$400	0xa915f6…
06-07 17:28:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	413	99¢	$410	0x127e4c…
06-07 14:54:09	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt8t	No	BUY	156	90¢	$140	0xeb2cac…
06-06 20:21:09	Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?	No	SELL	144	94¢	$136	0x20b5b5…
06-01 19:59:05	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?	No	BUY	978	92¢	$900	0x60e213…
06-01 04:51:44	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	339	88¢	$300	0x4da1ef…
06-01 04:44:53	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x51120c…
05-31 23:23:33	Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31?	Yes	SELL	543	100¢	$543	0xfa03f9…
05-31 22:40:30	Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31?	Yes	BUY	542	92¢	$500	0x64527d…
05-31 22:35:41	Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x7d2451…
05-19 03:46:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	591	93¢	$550	0xaa88d2…
05-13 00:39:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,630	92¢	$1,500	0x119c88…
05-13 00:35:30	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	488	82¢	$400	0xff21cd…
05-13 00:32:40	ECB rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	443	90¢	$400	0x9d8cb9…
05-13 00:29:10	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,150	18¢	$207	0x2d193a…
05-13 00:29:08	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,249	63¢	$793	0xe34594…
05-13 00:18:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,087	92¢	$1,000	0x896a42…
05-12 04:17:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x8c3c50…
05-12 04:02:43	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	308	65¢	$200	0x5fe7da…
05-12 04:00:21	Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May Meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,267	95¢	$1,200	0xe4fae4…
05-12 03:39:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,165	97¢	$5,000	0xc2538c…
05-12 03:38:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,198	91¢	$2,000	0x370988…
05-09 20:06:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,299	91¢	$2,092	0x9ca69c…
05-09 19:16:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,376	91¢	$3,982	0x70e763…
05-09 13:05:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	246	91¢	$224	0x04f15f…
05-02 03:54:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	14,041	95¢	$13,339	0x387e3c…
04-29 00:37:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	997	100¢	$994	0xccd19f…
04-24 22:26:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x19c387…
04-23 23:24:12	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	277	90¢	$250	0xf39444…
04-23 23:23:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	252	99¢	$250	0x10280c…
04-23 23:22:34	Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 24, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x4db1ef…
04-23 23:22:30	Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.5 on April 24, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x8df476…
04-23 23:22:30	Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 39.0% in April?	No	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x8103ac…
04-20 18:19:18	Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 39.0% in April?	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x4ed2e7…