Phony-Mantel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$524

Unrealized P&L

-$31

Hit rate

44.1%

Resolved

505

Trades

833

lifetime

Volume

$14.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

$121

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-28 20:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 162 days

Categories

Sports

58% 33% -$293

Other

33% 31% -$21

Politics

5% 32% -$203

Crypto

4% 45% -$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+660	$71	10¢	$68	-$3	10-25 03:56
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+429	$29	5¢	$22	-$7	10-28 19:42
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+43	$22	40¢	$17	-$5	10-10 10:20
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	+87	$15	14¢	$12	-$3	10-19 07:37
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+89	$15	2¢	$2	-$13	10-10 10:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
nba mil atl 2026 01 19	9	$388	336	336	+0	Bucks	+$76	01-19 20:27
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	15	$317	734	317	+417	No	-$158	08-28 08:31
nba lal chi 2026 01 26 total 236pt5	3	$295	391	208	+183	Over	-$99	01-26 20:05
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	13	$246	1,024	430	+594	No	-$61	06-29 16:16
nba nyk phi 2026 01 24	5	$238	614	0	+614	Knicks	-$238	01-24 21:59
epl ars mun 2026 01 25 mun	3	$190	168	168	+0	Yes	+$144	01-25 18:35
nba nyk det 2026 01 05 total 236pt5	4	$172	196	196	+0	Under	-$8	01-05 19:30
will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	2	$161	170	170	+0	Yes	+$97	08-12 18:24
nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	4	$153	332	0	+332	Spurs	+$179	06-08 19:46
will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	3	$137	120	120	+0	Yes	+$58	08-12 18:24
nba mia sac 2026 01 20	2	$133	83	83	+0	Heat	+$33	01-21 07:12
nba det cle 2026 01 04	4	$133	130	130	+0	Pistons	+$43	01-04 20:24
nba phx min 2026 03 17 total 221pt5	2	$130	195	60	+134	Under	-$69	03-17 22:06
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	2	$129	390	390	+0	No	-$74	07-15 14:22
Spurs vs. Thunder	2	$121	91	91	+0	Spurs	+$61	05-19 06:32
atp djokovi sinner 2026 01 30	3	$119	200	200	+0	Djokovic	+$79	01-30 14:19
will player 167 win beast games season 2 763	10	$118	414	255	+159	Yes	-$24	02-18 10:16
nba mia min 2026 01 06	4	$115	190	161	+29	Timberwolves	-$13	01-06 19:42
nba den phx 2026 03 24 total 233pt5	2	$109	73	73	+0	Over	+$37	03-25 07:59
Will Lacy and Marlon have fewer than 100 Fortnite deaths during the marathon?	3	$106	96	96	+0	Yes	+$56	09-06 18:21
epl mun mac 2026 01 17 mun	4	$103	84	84	+0	Yes	+$56	01-17 14:32
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$99	840	0	+840	No	-$99	06-15 20:05
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	1	$99	180	0	+180	Knicks	+$81	05-25 22:25
nba dal sac 2026 01 06	3	$98	144	144	+0	Mavericks	$0	01-06 15:51
nba hou cha 2026 02 19	4	$97	158	55	+103	Rockets	-$47	02-18 09:54
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$95	472	0	+472	No	-$95	06-28 19:29
nba cle orl 2026 01 24	2	$92	188	0	+188	Cavaliers	+$96	01-24 22:57
fif bra fra 2026 03 26 fra	2	$92	81	81	+0	Yes	+$22	03-26 20:45
Will Denmark win on 2026-10-01?	3	$91	283	142	+142	No	-$29	10-01 20:00
76ers vs. Knicks	1	$90	300	0	+300	Knicks	-$90	05-04 18:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 20:21:04	US imports Russian diesel by November 15?	Yes	BUY	45	72¢	$32	0xdfa431…
10-28 19:42:34	Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xd78774…
10-28 19:28:07	US imports Russian diesel by November 15?	Yes	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x83759f…
10-27 08:48:08	Pistons vs. Knicks	Pistons	SELL	24	38¢	$9	0x6bca6a…
10-27 08:46:03	Pistons vs. Knicks	Pistons	BUY	50	39¢	$20	0x574921…
10-27 08:35:12	Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	229	8¢	$19	0xf078e6…
10-26 08:50:53	Mavericks vs. Heat	Mavericks	BUY	100	26¢	$26	0x42c37a…
10-26 08:44:48	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Timberwolves	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0xba8885…
10-25 21:48:51	Pistons vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	43	46¢	$20	0x72b3ea…
10-25 21:48:21	Raptors vs. Timberwolves	Timberwolves	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xf88edd…
10-25 03:56:44	Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	294	11¢	$31	0xdfdbc7…
10-25 03:56:44	Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	366	11¢	$39	0x434575…
10-24 18:44:32	Warriors vs. Suns	Warriors	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xd4a36f…
10-24 18:40:35	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0x184fb5…
10-23 20:44:45	Timberwolves vs. Magic	Timberwolves	BUY	71	48¢	$34	0xcfbe3d…
10-23 00:01:45	Cavaliers vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x9c8569…
10-22 23:56:27	Cavaliers vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x164d26…
10-22 23:32:48	Cavaliers vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	51	39¢	$20	0x8d233b…
10-22 13:19:17	Nuggets vs. Thunder	Nuggets	BUY	42	26¢	$11	0x271cea…
10-21 07:30:03	Timberwolves vs. Heat	Timberwolves	BUY	110	49¢	$54	0x586808…
10-19 07:51:42	76ers vs. Knicks	76ers	BUY	40	38¢	$15	0x1f5b36…
10-19 07:37:41	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x5d49e1…
10-16 20:49:35	Timberwolves vs. Bulls	Timberwolves	BUY	53	38¢	$20	0xf6255d…
10-16 20:48:15	Kings vs. Spurs	Kings	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xdbdfe5…
10-16 20:48:02	Bucks vs. Pacers	Bucks	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x0e85a0…
10-16 20:46:48	Celtics vs. 76ers	Celtics	BUY	23	39¢	$9	0x253404…
10-15 23:26:55	Raptors vs. Knicks	Raptors	BUY	38	39¢	$15	0x87c1c0…
10-13 11:11:23	Cavaliers vs. Magic	Cavaliers	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x83b689…
10-12 19:22:17	Nets vs. Wizards	Nets	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0xdddc1d…
10-12 19:19:51	Nets vs. Wizards	Nets	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0x53c64b…
10-12 19:15:45	Nets vs. Wizards	Nets	BUY	19	42¢	$8	0xce18dd…
10-12 17:49:33	Spurs vs. Jazz	Spurs	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x05168c…
10-12 17:48:51	Timberwolves vs. Knicks	Timberwolves	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xad93da…
10-10 10:21:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x15105c…
10-10 10:20:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0xef8b58…
10-10 10:20:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	46¢	$20	0xf6e6f1…
10-09 10:07:06	Rockets vs. Mavericks	Rockets	BUY	14	49¢	$7	0x6eca27…
10-09 09:08:33	Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xb9a633…
10-09 09:07:36	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xe67265…
10-09 09:03:16	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xa9c74a…
10-09 09:01:37	Rockets vs. Mavericks	Rockets	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xaefd7d…
10-08 18:41:38	Celtics vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0xa1e927…
10-08 11:00:35	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 9?	Yes	SELL	8	53¢	$4	0xf8d1a7…
10-08 11:00:24	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	47¢	$17	0x0d2648…
10-07 18:23:36	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 9?	Yes	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x60e814…
10-07 18:23:15	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xff7e2b…
10-06 11:21:57	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 7?	Yes	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0x35f735…
10-06 10:18:52	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 8?	Yes	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0xaae2c6…
10-06 10:10:57	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 6?	Yes	BUY	26	5¢	$1	0x6e26cf…
10-06 10:10:55	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 6?	Yes	BUY	24	5¢	$1	0x476408…
10-06 10:10:42	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 6?	Yes	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0xc05c31…
10-04 16:36:10	Will Wales win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x4f3ab5…
10-04 07:16:14	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	10¢	$5	0x0d2791…
10-04 07:16:02	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0xd7a5a1…
10-04 07:15:40	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	53¢	$19	0x9f2c77…
10-01 20:00:45	Will Denmark win on 2026-10-01?	Yes	SELL	142	22¢	$31	0x978b78…
10-01 19:07:54	Will Denmark win on 2026-10-01?	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x295cf0…
10-01 17:34:24	Will Denmark win on 2026-10-01?	Yes	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0x88e334…
09-22 07:52:15	Will "Digger" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x3ba53d…
09-22 07:51:31	Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	Yes	SELL	9	24¢	$2	0x30abce…
09-21 07:47:11	Will ASC Oțelul Galați win on 2026-09-21?	Yes	BUY	56	38¢	$21	0x6c7f84…
09-21 07:32:35	Solana Up or Down - September 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xd79503…
09-21 07:31:15	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	33	36¢	$12	0xc8a96f…
09-19 10:10:10	Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	Yes	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x9c0ab6…
09-19 10:09:32	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	8¢	$3	0xb6255a…
09-19 10:09:04	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	33	38¢	$13	0xc537d4…
09-15 18:53:19	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xde87af…
09-15 18:48:57	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	311	5¢	$16	0x56c4e5…
09-15 11:46:10	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	19¢	$15	0xf40dcc…
09-15 11:45:36	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	19¢	$13	0xca6496…
09-15 11:44:34	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	19¢	$30	0x74553c…
09-10 11:27:00	Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-09-10?	Yes	BUY	220	3¢	$7	0x92af07…
09-06 18:21:24	Will Lacy and Marlon have fewer than 100 Fortnite deaths during the marathon?	Yes	SELL	73	93¢	$68	0x64eb9f…
09-03 14:14:46	Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?	Yes	BUY	191	7¢	$13	0x886716…
09-03 14:14:18	Will Lacy and Marlon have fewer than 100 Fortnite deaths during the marathon?	Yes	SELL	23	58¢	$13	0xa7986a…
09-03 14:12:10	Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?	Yes	BUY	200	7¢	$13	0x6431af…
09-03 14:11:45	Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?	Yes	BUY	91	6¢	$6	0x4fd52e…
09-03 08:13:19	lacy and marlon beat gaming challenge by september 3 2026 1159 pm et	Yes	BUY	24	12¢	$3	0x7eb7ac…
09-03 07:44:37	lacy and marlon beat gaming challenge by september 3 2026 1159 pm et	Yes	BUY	56	3¢	$2	0x300460…
09-02 16:35:48	Will Lacy and Marlon have fewer than 100 Fortnite deaths during the marathon?	Yes	BUY	96	26¢	$25	0x31b64f…
09-02 08:42:46	lacy and marlon beat gaming challenge by september 5 2026 1159 pm et	Yes	BUY	199	24¢	$48	0x29e875…
09-02 08:17:51	lacy and marlon beat gaming challenge by september 4 2026 1159 pm et	Yes	BUY	180	11¢	$20	0xda3f89…
09-02 07:59:07	lacy and marlon beat gaming challenge by september 4 2026 1159 pm et	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x00e7b1…
09-01 10:20:22	Solana Up or Down - September 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xcb6870…
08-28 08:31:57	Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	BUY	125	7¢	$8	0xa3a3f0…
08-28 08:31:46	Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0xc18d1d…
08-27 19:33:34	Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	SELL	143	7¢	$10	0x4df725…
08-27 17:28:40	Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	BUY	25	28¢	$7	0x5bdf35…
08-27 17:28:27	Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xf51cbb…
08-26 15:25:39	Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	SELL	123	40¢	$49	0xea959a…
08-26 15:23:03	Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	SELL	51	40¢	$20	0x57269a…
08-26 13:19:30	Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	BUY	70	35¢	$25	0x162f0e…
08-26 13:18:06	Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x91dc2b…
08-26 13:18:03	Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	BUY	13	35¢	$5	0x32c9a1…
08-26 13:14:28	Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x4d3407…
08-26 12:57:19	Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	BUY	140	37¢	$52	0x28f19d…
08-26 08:17:34	Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	BUY	34	41¢	$14	0x4c362d…
08-26 08:09:27	jynxzi vs speed gaming challenge winner	Speed	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xd42af7…
08-25 16:43:31	jynxzi vs speed gaming challenge winner	Speed	BUY	30	36¢	$11	0xd25d39…
08-19 12:30:39	another gta vi trailer released by august 31 20260629164610050	Yes	BUY	290	41¢	$119	0x8f8ac8…