Phony-Mantel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$471

Unrealized P&L

-$71

Hit rate

44.1%

Resolved

535

Trades

881

lifetime

Volume

$15.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

$63

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 11-14 17:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 174 days

Categories

Sports

59% 33% -$180

Other

32% 30% -$50

Politics

5% 29% -$234

Crypto

4% 45% -$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+400	$44	10¢	$39	-$5	11-13 20:42
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+43	$22	19¢	$8	-$14	10-10 10:20
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	Yes	+93	$54	7¢	$6	-$48	11-03 09:20
Nuggets vs. Pelicans	Pelicans	+50	$8	10¢	$5	-$3	11-14 17:50
Spurs vs. Jazz	Jazz	+45	$5	10¢	$4	-$1	11-14 17:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
nba mil atl 2026 01 19	9	$388	336	336	+0	Bucks	+$76	01-19 20:27
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	15	$317	734	317	+417	No	-$158	08-28 08:31
nba lal chi 2026 01 26 total 236pt5	3	$295	391	208	+183	Over	-$99	01-26 20:05
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	13	$246	1,024	430	+594	No	-$61	06-29 16:16
nba nyk phi 2026 01 24	5	$238	614	0	+614	Knicks	-$238	01-24 21:59
epl ars mun 2026 01 25 mun	3	$190	168	168	+0	Yes	+$144	01-25 18:35
nba nyk det 2026 01 05 total 236pt5	4	$172	196	196	+0	Under	-$8	01-05 19:30
will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	2	$161	170	170	+0	Yes	+$97	08-12 18:24
nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	4	$153	332	0	+332	Spurs	+$179	06-08 19:46
will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	3	$137	120	120	+0	Yes	+$58	08-12 18:24
nba mia sac 2026 01 20	2	$133	83	83	+0	Heat	+$33	01-21 07:12
nba det cle 2026 01 04	4	$133	130	130	+0	Pistons	+$43	01-04 20:24
nba phx min 2026 03 17 total 221pt5	2	$130	195	60	+134	Under	-$69	03-17 22:06
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	2	$129	390	390	+0	No	-$74	07-15 14:22
Spurs vs. Thunder	2	$121	91	91	+0	Spurs	+$61	05-19 06:32
atp djokovi sinner 2026 01 30	3	$119	200	200	+0	Djokovic	+$79	01-30 14:19
will player 167 win beast games season 2 763	10	$118	414	255	+159	Yes	-$24	02-18 10:16
nba mia min 2026 01 06	4	$115	190	161	+29	Timberwolves	-$13	01-06 19:42
nba den phx 2026 03 24 total 233pt5	2	$109	73	73	+0	Over	+$37	03-25 07:59
Will Lacy and Marlon have fewer than 100 Fortnite deaths during the marathon?	3	$106	96	96	+0	Yes	+$56	09-06 18:21
Knicks vs. Pacers	3	$105	135	135	+0	Pacers	+$35	11-14 01:20
epl mun mac 2026 01 17 mun	4	$103	84	84	+0	Yes	+$56	01-17 14:32
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$99	840	0	+840	No	-$99	06-15 20:05
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	1	$99	180	0	+180	Knicks	+$81	05-25 22:25
nba dal sac 2026 01 06	3	$98	144	144	+0	Mavericks	$0	01-06 15:51
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	3	$97	660	260	+400	open	—	11-13 20:42
US imports Russian diesel by November 15?	3	$97	95	95	+0	open	—	11-03 09:19
nba hou cha 2026 02 19	4	$97	158	55	+103	Rockets	-$47	02-18 09:54
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$95	472	0	+472	No	-$95	06-28 19:29
nba cle orl 2026 01 24	2	$92	188	0	+188	Cavaliers	+$96	01-24 22:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-14 17:52:19	Spurs vs. Jazz	Jazz	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xd6731c…
11-14 17:50:43	Nuggets vs. Pelicans	Pelicans	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0x5ccb00…
11-14 01:20:05	Knicks vs. Pacers	Pacers	SELL	135	52¢	$70	0xc11e86…
11-13 20:45:49	Knicks vs. Pacers	Pacers	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x5739a4…
11-13 20:45:31	Warriors vs. Spurs	Warriors	SELL	75	15¢	$11	0xbe3d50…
11-13 20:43:51	Cavaliers vs. Heat	Cavaliers	BUY	52	45¢	$23	0xa7a135…
11-13 20:43:19	Knicks vs. Pacers	Pacers	BUY	96	26¢	$25	0xf4de54…
11-13 20:42:45	Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	260	10¢	$27	0xd7dbc8…
11-13 09:06:30	Warriors vs. Spurs	Warriors	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x09a1a7…
11-13 09:06:18	Jazz vs. Rockets	Jazz	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x7ccabd…
11-11 08:48:06	Nuggets vs. Grizzlies	Grizzlies	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x1eb1dc…
11-11 08:47:19	Spurs vs. Bulls	Bulls	BUY	80	10¢	$8	0xe5dc85…
11-10 21:21:34	Bucks vs. Knicks	Bucks	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0xf1590c…
11-10 17:28:24	Celtics vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	33	47¢	$16	0xb4280d…
11-10 17:25:04	Bucks vs. Knicks	Bucks	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x621e39…
11-10 13:28:55	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?	Yes	SELL	219	13¢	$29	0xd2f399…
11-09 15:48:25	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 14?	No	SELL	73	1¢	$1	0xcb6c42…
11-09 14:50:06	Lakers vs. Hawks	Lakers	BUY	38	49¢	$19	0x483e60…
11-09 14:48:51	Lakers vs. Hawks	Lakers	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0x4512b0…
11-09 11:50:21	Spurs vs. Suns	Suns	BUY	39	23¢	$9	0xe87540…
11-09 11:29:40	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?	Yes	BUY	438	8¢	$35	0x857d8b…
11-08 19:09:48	Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	429	6¢	$26	0xf9302d…
11-07 08:43:00	Nuggets vs. Pacers	Pacers	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xd5aac5…
11-07 08:41:55	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 14?	No	BUY	73	11¢	$8	0x904b7e…
11-07 08:33:15	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	90	21¢	$18	0x5925be…
11-06 09:43:52	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	87	7¢	$6	0xe03bf6…
11-06 09:26:09	Spurs vs. Kings	Kings	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x146aaf…
11-06 09:25:48	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	21¢	$10	0xf88f71…
11-05 18:53:13	Heat vs. Warriors	Heat	BUY	35	31¢	$11	0x751aa3…
11-05 00:20:12	76ers vs. Pistons	76ers	BUY	52	48¢	$25	0x619bdb…
11-04 20:09:18	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	90	28¢	$25	0x496337…
11-03 09:20:37	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	Yes	BUY	93	58¢	$54	0x61b651…
11-03 09:19:12	US imports Russian diesel by November 15?	Yes	SELL	95	30¢	$28	0xf74938…
11-03 09:02:18	Mavericks vs. Spurs	Mavericks	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x20b0da…
11-03 09:00:30	Bucks vs. Celtics	Bucks	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x0abec6…
11-02 19:04:27	Bucks vs. Timberwolves	Bucks	BUY	40	22¢	$9	0x4dfee0…
11-02 18:59:01	Jazz vs. Spurs	Jazz	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x935ca5…
11-02 18:55:42	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0x7319d2…
11-02 08:49:43	Bulls vs. 76ers	Bulls	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x3d129a…
11-02 08:49:01	Kings vs. Mavericks	Kings	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x3aba59…
11-02 08:48:34	Jazz vs. Spurs	Jazz	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x5a8e9d…
11-02 08:47:45	Pelicans vs. Grizzlies	Pelicans	BUY	18	34¢	$6	0x07d6f7…
10-31 13:54:31	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x05c3d5…
10-31 13:49:16	76ers vs. Hornets	76ers	BUY	57	53¢	$30	0x2bc3a0…
10-31 13:05:25	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	BUY	76	39¢	$30	0x020258…
10-30 07:38:21	Pacers vs. Heat	Pacers	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0x9b7066…
10-29 11:37:37	Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers	Grizzlies	BUY	28	29¢	$8	0x101a3c…
10-29 11:35:05	Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers	Grizzlies	BUY	150	29¢	$44	0x71003e…
10-28 20:21:04	US imports Russian diesel by November 15?	Yes	BUY	45	72¢	$32	0xdfa431…
10-28 19:42:34	Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xd78774…
10-28 19:28:07	US imports Russian diesel by November 15?	Yes	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x83759f…
10-27 08:48:08	Pistons vs. Knicks	Pistons	SELL	24	38¢	$9	0x6bca6a…
10-27 08:46:03	Pistons vs. Knicks	Pistons	BUY	50	39¢	$20	0x574921…
10-27 08:35:12	Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	229	8¢	$19	0xf078e6…
10-26 08:50:53	Mavericks vs. Heat	Mavericks	BUY	100	26¢	$26	0x42c37a…
10-26 08:44:48	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Timberwolves	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0xba8885…
10-25 21:48:51	Pistons vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	43	46¢	$20	0x72b3ea…
10-25 21:48:21	Raptors vs. Timberwolves	Timberwolves	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xf88edd…
10-25 03:56:44	Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	294	11¢	$31	0xdfdbc7…
10-25 03:56:44	Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	366	11¢	$39	0x434575…
10-24 18:44:32	Warriors vs. Suns	Warriors	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xd4a36f…
10-24 18:40:35	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0x184fb5…
10-23 20:44:45	Timberwolves vs. Magic	Timberwolves	BUY	71	48¢	$34	0xcfbe3d…
10-23 00:01:45	Cavaliers vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x9c8569…
10-22 23:56:27	Cavaliers vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x164d26…
10-22 23:32:48	Cavaliers vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	51	39¢	$20	0x8d233b…
10-22 13:19:17	Nuggets vs. Thunder	Nuggets	BUY	42	26¢	$11	0x271cea…
10-21 07:30:03	Timberwolves vs. Heat	Timberwolves	BUY	110	49¢	$54	0x586808…
10-19 07:51:42	76ers vs. Knicks	76ers	BUY	40	38¢	$15	0x1f5b36…
10-19 07:37:41	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x5d49e1…
10-16 20:49:35	Timberwolves vs. Bulls	Timberwolves	BUY	53	38¢	$20	0xf6255d…
10-16 20:48:15	Kings vs. Spurs	Kings	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xdbdfe5…
10-16 20:48:02	Bucks vs. Pacers	Bucks	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x0e85a0…
10-16 20:46:48	Celtics vs. 76ers	Celtics	BUY	23	39¢	$9	0x253404…
10-15 23:26:55	Raptors vs. Knicks	Raptors	BUY	38	39¢	$15	0x87c1c0…
10-13 11:11:23	Cavaliers vs. Magic	Cavaliers	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x83b689…
10-12 19:22:17	Nets vs. Wizards	Nets	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0xdddc1d…
10-12 19:19:51	Nets vs. Wizards	Nets	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0x53c64b…
10-12 19:15:45	Nets vs. Wizards	Nets	BUY	19	42¢	$8	0xce18dd…
10-12 17:49:33	Spurs vs. Jazz	Spurs	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x05168c…
10-12 17:48:51	Timberwolves vs. Knicks	Timberwolves	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xad93da…
10-10 10:21:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x15105c…
10-10 10:20:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0xef8b58…
10-10 10:20:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	46¢	$20	0xf6e6f1…
10-09 10:07:06	Rockets vs. Mavericks	Rockets	BUY	14	49¢	$7	0x6eca27…
10-09 09:08:33	Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xb9a633…
10-09 09:07:36	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xe67265…
10-09 09:03:16	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xa9c74a…
10-09 09:01:37	Rockets vs. Mavericks	Rockets	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xaefd7d…
10-08 18:41:38	Celtics vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0xa1e927…
10-08 11:00:35	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 9?	Yes	SELL	8	53¢	$4	0xf8d1a7…
10-08 11:00:24	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	47¢	$17	0x0d2648…
10-07 18:23:36	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 9?	Yes	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x60e814…
10-07 18:23:15	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xff7e2b…
10-06 11:21:57	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 7?	Yes	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0x35f735…
10-06 10:18:52	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 8?	Yes	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0xaae2c6…
10-06 10:10:57	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 6?	Yes	BUY	26	5¢	$1	0x6e26cf…
10-06 10:10:55	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 6?	Yes	BUY	24	5¢	$1	0x476408…
10-06 10:10:42	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 6?	Yes	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0xc05c31…
10-04 16:36:10	Will Wales win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x4f3ab5…