Meager-Guarantee — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$351

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

68.7%

Resolved

303

Trades

1,384

lifetime

Volume

$4.14K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-30

last 10-03 20:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 67 days

Categories

Crypto

47% 41% +$456

Other

32% 30% -$107

Politics

21% 45% +$1

Tech

0% 100% +$1

Sports

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes		+30	$6	18¢	$5	-$1	10-03 20:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
solana above 70 on february 6	41	$580	4,924	2,790	+2,134	Yes	+$363	02-06 11:09
will the price of bitcoin be less than 78000 on february 2	12	$484	931	931	+0	No	+$422	02-01 17:07
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	4	$265	750	750	+0	No	+$5	03-23 18:58
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	7	$260	600	450	+150	No	+$4	03-23 12:15
will bitcoin dip to 45k in february 2026 429 933 793	49	$162	19,744	9,944	+9,800	No	-$139	02-27 17:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 22:35 UTC	2	$147	100	96	+3	Up	+$47	04-07 22:38
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$139	90	90	+0	Yes	+$40	04-05 06:49
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	8	$122	100	100	+0	Yes	+$76	02-28 07:30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	4	$113	230	227	+3	No	+$16	04-07 22:35
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 10?	10	$98	166	144	+22	No	-$30	05-10 03:52
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$92	500	100	+400	No	-$60	03-30 01:45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	12	$90	451	450	+1	No	-$30	04-29 20:45
iran strike on us military by february 28	3	$74	269	269	+0	Yes	+$1	02-18 22:20
will bitcoin dip to 60k in february 2026 394 616	3	$58	60	60	+0	Yes	+$26	02-05 22:17
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	2	$52	100	100	+0	No	+$2	04-07 22:35
will bitcoin dip to 45k in march 2026	4	$46	2,600	0	+2,600	No	-$46	03-26 07:06
will the us invade iran by march 31	2	$42	300	300	+0	No	-$12	02-26 21:02
will bitcoin reach 100k in february 2026	16	$41	1,166	1,166	+0	No	-$15	02-10 00:19
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	8	$36	1,736	1,736	+0	No	-$5	03-17 08:15
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$36	410	410	+0	Yes	-$24	02-26 21:02
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 2?	5	$32	200	200	+0	No	+$28	05-02 18:47
will bitcoin dip to 56k february 23 march 1	9	$30	700	0	+700	No	-$30	02-28 13:39
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 27?	3	$28	45	44	+1	No	+$2	04-26 14:19
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 28?	27	$27	200	96	+103	No	-$1	04-27 20:02
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	3	$24	100	100	+0	No	+$6	06-11 07:47
will wti reach 120 by april 6 2026	7	$23	545	10	+535	No	-$22	04-11 07:17
will the price of bitcoin be between 62000 64000 on february 16	18	$22	1,600	0	+1,600	No	-$22	02-15 05:17
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	1	$22	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$22	03-14 14:44
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 27?	2	$22	26	25	+1	No	+$1	04-26 14:36
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	4	$21	400	400	+0	No	+$2	04-05 10:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-03 20:15:44	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	15¢	$4	0x9a6da5…
10-01 18:51:41	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on October 1?	Yes	SELL	40	8¢	$3	0x51f093…
10-01 13:22:27	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on October 1?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x0fa064…
10-01 10:49:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	26	13¢	$3	0x06b3c6…
07-12 22:26:47	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	60	8¢	$5	0x08d67e…
07-09 21:36:07	Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xc5f438…
07-08 23:05:07	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x4c5ef0…
07-08 23:04:50	Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xf1f1ac…
07-08 17:33:38	will wti reach 105 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	172	3¢	$5	0x0ece25…
07-07 19:30:28	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xd0c36c…
07-07 06:06:47	Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xf9a7c1…
07-07 06:06:35	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x02f1fb…
07-06 05:30:53	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0xe3e720…
07-06 05:25:29	Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x3b7790…
07-06 05:25:19	Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x86df7c…
07-06 05:25:04	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xe4fa3b…
07-05 08:44:52	Will United States win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x52000e…
07-05 08:44:41	Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x8119a4…
07-03 18:17:37	Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x3c4bfb…
07-03 18:17:28	Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xc30dd1…
07-03 18:17:14	Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xf197a1…
07-02 17:32:37	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xd84841…
07-02 17:32:31	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x7327ca…
07-02 17:31:49	Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x9309c2…
07-02 17:31:46	Will England win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x7e1266…
07-02 17:30:56	Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xc151ce…
07-02 17:30:50	Will France win on 2026-07-04?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xadfef3…
07-02 17:30:44	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x97886b…
07-01 19:45:19	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x64f9fa…
06-30 07:11:55	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x87ab7f…
06-30 07:11:44	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x5a8b24…
06-30 07:11:37	Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xcf0a4e…
06-30 07:11:10	Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x9394b1…
06-28 21:55:26	Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xe1278b…
06-28 21:55:10	Will England win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x7cfe84…
06-28 21:54:07	Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xa493a9…
06-27 23:06:40	Will France win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x14a19b…
06-27 23:06:25	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x7d1d6f…
06-27 23:05:46	Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x9c02af…
06-27 23:05:38	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x423381…
06-27 23:05:25	Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xdbdd70…
06-27 23:05:19	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x781704…
06-25 15:10:53	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in june 2026	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x6b41db…
06-25 15:10:31	will bitcoin dip to 47pt5k in june 2026 352	Yes	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0x336fcf…
06-25 15:09:43	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	Yes	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x2af50c…
06-23 07:03:49	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x281ce5…
06-23 07:03:28	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xc97016…
06-16 20:42:25	Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x124856…
06-12 18:37:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x8e3b61…
06-12 16:47:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-12 16:45 UTC	Down	SELL	3	25¢	$1	0x6dd406…
06-12 16:46:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-12 16:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x51b2ef…
06-12 16:46:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-12 16:45 UTC	Down	SELL	2	33¢	$1	0xfb2c57…
06-12 16:45:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-12 16:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xf281c9…
06-12 15:58:12	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	SELL	10	60¢	$6	0x872813…
06-12 05:44:52	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x2200f1…
06-11 21:19:34	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 21:15 UTC	Up	SELL	2	6¢	$0	0xfaf50a…
06-11 21:17:36	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 21:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x6a4837…
06-11 21:16:43	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 21:15 UTC	Up	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x223402…
06-11 21:15:13	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 21:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x53c92f…
06-11 21:11:39	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 21:10 UTC	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x8c8221…
06-11 21:11:33	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 21:10 UTC	Up	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0x17706f…
06-11 21:10:15	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 21:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xba9a39…
06-11 21:09:54	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 21:05 UTC	Up	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x8694be…
06-11 21:05:22	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 21:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x9ef789…
06-11 07:47:03	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	Yes	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0x1a4b4f…
06-10 12:05:01	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	Yes	BUY	90	9¢	$8	0xd5cf68…
06-10 11:50:40	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xddf0cb…
06-09 19:50:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 19:50 UTC	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x65c04f…
06-09 19:47:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xfb0058…
06-04 03:31:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 03:30 UTC	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xf2eba9…
06-04 03:31:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 03:30 UTC	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xad49de…
06-04 03:30:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 03:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x948859…
06-04 03:29:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 03:25 UTC	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xf7d31a…
06-03 20:47:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-03 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xb6a23e…
06-03 20:47:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-03 20:45 UTC	Down	SELL	2	74¢	$2	0xda12f6…
06-03 20:45:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-03 20:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x75efb7…
06-02 21:16:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x97a3de…
06-02 21:15:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x9cf161…
06-02 21:12:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x6760f7…
06-02 21:11:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x7e7eb3…
06-02 21:05:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x345212…
06-02 21:05:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x255b87…
06-02 21:04:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	SELL	4	67¢	$3	0x6f2356…
06-02 21:01:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x09299c…
05-30 13:50:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x35a59d…
05-30 13:41:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x4a79a1…
05-30 13:27:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xd48f02…
05-30 13:24:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	SELL	14	5¢	$1	0x1b7ce5…
05-30 13:23:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xec2941…
05-30 13:18:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	SELL	4	49¢	$2	0xa4cb1f…
05-30 13:15:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x05e30f…
05-30 13:04:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x22360b…
05-30 12:32:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xd75e54…
05-30 12:14:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	80¢	$2	0x2ac70f…
05-30 12:12:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x11bc7b…
05-30 12:07:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xa57bf6…
05-30 12:06:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xc5af40…
05-30 12:04:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x88f195…
05-30 12:02:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x89ace3…
05-30 12:02:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	SELL	3	54¢	$2	0xfe9b6f…