Realized P&L
-$17
Unrealized P&L
+$2
Hit rate
44.3%
Resolved
6
Trades
15
lifetime
Volume
$57
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$22
4 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-01 10:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 5 days
Categories
Politics
91%
33%
-$17
Other
9%
—
—
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-01).
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | +6 | $5 | 98¢ | $6 | +$1 | 07-01 10:49 | |
| will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026 | No | +6 | $5 | 97¢ | $6 | +$1 | 07-01 10:39 | |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | +6 | $5 | 94¢ | $5 | +$0 | 07-01 10:49 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | +5 | $5 | 98¢ | $5 | +$0 | 07-01 10:54 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026 | 2 | $11 | 6 | 6 | +0 | No | +$1 | 02-18 14:39 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | 2 | $5 | 6 | 6 | +0 | Yes | -$5 | 03-11 21:20 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | 1 | $5 | 6 | 0 | +6 | open | — | 07-01 10:49 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | 1 | $5 | 9 | 0 | +9 | Yes | -$5 | 01-01 22:28 |
| Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? | 1 | $5 | 5 | 0 | +5 | open | — | 07-01 10:50 |
| will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026 | 1 | $5 | 6 | 0 | +6 | open | — | 07-01 10:39 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | 1 | $5 | 6 | 0 | +6 | open | — | 07-01 10:49 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | 1 | $5 | 5 | 0 | +5 | open | — | 07-01 10:54 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | 2 | $5 | 7 | 7 | +0 | Yes | -$5 | 03-11 21:20 |
| israel x syria security agreement by january 31 | 1 | $4 | 4 | 0 | +4 | No | +$0 | 01-01 22:46 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 2 | $3 | 3 | 3 | +0 | Yes | -$2 | 02-28 20:54 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||