Mammoth-Lever — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$876

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

58.7%

Resolved

1,804

Trades

4,909

lifetime

Volume

$15.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$13

4 positions

First seen

2026-04-14

last 10-24 23:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 163 days

Categories

Other

77% 43% -$572

Crypto

19% 41% -$153

Politics

2% 35% -$46

Sports

2% 30% -$107

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

67 active days in 12wk • peak 348 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	-10	-$8	82¢	$-8	$0	07-18 20:48
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157 255 857	Yes	+7	$4	35¢	$2	-$2	08-22 02:04
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-11	-$2	18¢	$-2	+$0	07-11 21:31
us announces end of iranian blockade by march 31 2027	Yes	+1	$1	60¢	$1	$0	09-26 18:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-05-09?	3	$196	154	154	+0	No	+$110	05-09 22:06
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 6?	13	$190	173	173	+0	Yes	+$43	05-06 14:34
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Stage	5	$161	94	94	+0	Phantom	+$27	05-19 17:33
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2?	12	$123	312	312	+0	No	+$74	05-02 08:02
will dow say carbon 5 times during earnings call 20260717163814086	12	$115	292	146	+146	No	-$66	07-24 14:38
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs TNC - Map 2 Winner	4	$106	56	56	+0	Phantom	+$5	05-19 17:33
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on May 22?	15	$100	138	138	+0	Yes	-$10	05-22 06:39
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club win on 2026-05-09?	2	$85	44	44	+0	No	+$3	05-09 20:22
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 8?	12	$83	69	68	+0	No	-$5	05-08 11:21
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 5?	6	$82	77	77	+0	Yes	-$8	05-05 11:46
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-09?	9	$78	60	60	+0	No	-$3	05-09 12:33
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-09?	9	$78	45	45	+0	No	-$4	05-09 12:33
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	14	$70	230	0	+230	Spurs	-$70	05-16 01:50
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 8?	14	$68	96	96	+0	No	-$20	05-07 16:32
Will Marathon win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?	3	$68	45	45	+0	open	—	09-18 05:40
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals	42	$63	61	61	+0	Rajasthan Royals	+$11	04-28 17:19
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	7	$62	546	38	+508	Up	+$14	05-24 08:55
Counter-Strike: Kinoa vs Esport Academy Copenhagen - Map 2 Winner	2	$62	58	58	+0	Kinoa	+$14	05-18 09:41
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 7?	3	$61	419	419	+0	No	-$24	05-07 06:01
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 7?	5	$55	119	119	-0	Yes	-$25	05-06 17:58
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 5?	5	$54	176	176	+0	No	+$25	05-05 18:41
Game Handicap: ESB (-1.5) vs BRUTE (+1.5)	2	$53	28	28	+0	eSuba	+$3	05-17 20:24
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad	51	$49	54	54	+0	Sunrisers Hyderabad	+$7	04-29 17:54
Will Incheon United FC win on 2026-05-09?	2	$49	29	29	+0	Yes	+$10	05-09 09:53
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	2	$49	31	31	+0	Atlanta Braves	+$13	05-10 03:09
Map Handicap: PHA (-1.5) vs TNC (+1.5)	2	$48	32	32	+0	Phantom	+$16	05-19 17:33
crsp quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 03 2026 neg1pt18	21	$48	52	37	+15	Yes	+$1	08-03 20:33
highest temperature in seattle on april 16 2026 54 55f	25	$47	61	48	+13	Yes	-$3	04-16 23:16
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 7?	10	$47	39	39	+0	No	+$13	05-07 07:04
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A	6	$47	37	37	+0	paiN	-$1	05-20 20:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 23:27:06	Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.50% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	34¢	$4	0x7fab00…
10-23 13:24:17	Will 2026 rank below 15th among the highest domestic box office years?	Yes	SELL	4	10¢	$0	0x27c5a6…
10-20 04:47:11	Will the biggest earthquake on October 20, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6?	Yes	BUY	149	1¢	$1	0xb8a439…
10-19 23:11:20	Will the biggest earthquake on October 19, 2026 be 6.1 or more?	Yes	BUY	15	10¢	$1	0xdcffc1…
10-19 18:00:05	Will the biggest earthquake on October 18, 2026 be under 5.3?	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x21bd34…
10-19 17:26:06	Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Indonesia this month?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xa0a14e…
10-19 05:33:15	dota2 dawnbu ch1 2026 10 19 game1 any player ultra kill	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa81525…
10-19 00:47:26	Will the biggest earthquake on October 18, 2026 be under 5.3?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0xe3e8e2…
10-18 15:58:24	Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Indonesia this month?	Yes	BUY	4	41¢	$1	0x9c4322…
10-18 08:28:57	dota2 salami pr1 2026 10 18 game2 any player rampage	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe856fe…
10-18 08:07:09	Will the biggest earthquake on October 18, 2026 be under 5.3?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$1	0x992f3f…
10-18 03:54:21	Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Japan this month?	No	BUY	2	69¢	$1	0x04167c…
10-17 18:06:26	Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Japan this month?	Yes	BUY	2	89¢	$1	0x32c4c4…
10-17 14:15:59	Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Indonesia this month?	No	BUY	2	69¢	$1	0x8a4e9f…
10-17 14:15:59	Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Indonesia this month?	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$1	0x1f4e66…
10-17 14:10:41	Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Indonesia this month?	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$1	0x24cc3a…
10-17 13:52:20	Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Indonesia this month?	No	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0xf74c02…
10-17 13:48:45	Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Indonesia this month?	Yes	BUY	2	79¢	$1	0x174ae6…
10-17 11:48:00	biggest earthquake 2026 10 16 5 5 to 5 6	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x782828…
10-17 10:39:50	dota2 st1 sbt 2026 10 17 game1 any player rampage	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x1763cc…
10-17 10:06:09	Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Japan this month?	Yes	BUY	2	89¢	$1	0x8697d1…
10-17 02:55:02	Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Philippines this month?	Yes	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0xac5303…
10-17 02:39:24	Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Philippines this month?	Yes	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0xceb321…
10-17 02:37:59	Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Japan this month?	No	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0xdb1d08…
10-16 21:04:20	Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Japan this month?	Yes	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0x151bb1…
10-16 17:48:45	Will the biggest earthquake on October 15, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6?	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x0db994…
10-16 15:24:25	dota2 kt sbt 2026 10 16 game2 any player rampage	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc4a3b8…
10-16 10:37:54	Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Japan this month?	No	BUY	2	71¢	$1	0xe7e712…
10-16 04:52:42	Will the biggest earthquake on October 15, 2026 be 6.1 or more?	Yes	BUY	14	10¢	$1	0xf801f2…
10-16 00:05:07	Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Indonesia this month?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xdf18e3…
10-15 22:59:39	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0xa8338a…
10-15 22:59:15	Will Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Win the 2026 Esports Mobile Game of the Year Award?	Yes	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0x0abafd…
10-15 14:56:58	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C or higher on October 15?	Yes	SELL	13	0¢	$0	0x5ad25a…
10-15 11:10:09	Will the biggest earthquake on October 15, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6?	Yes	BUY	4	39¢	$1	0x603761…
10-15 11:09:58	Will the biggest earthquake on October 15, 2026 be under 5.3?	Yes	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0x465d9d…
10-15 11:09:51	Will the biggest earthquake on October 15, 2026 be under 5.3?	Yes	BUY	7	22¢	$1	0x110152…
10-15 11:06:12	Will the biggest earthquake on October 15, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?	Yes	BUY	3	56¢	$1	0x61a5b3…
10-15 11:02:55	Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Japan this month?	No	BUY	3	53¢	$1	0x6c7775…
10-15 07:28:01	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C or higher on October 15?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x25bafb…
10-15 05:41:26	Will the biggest earthquake on October 15, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$1	0xd1bf2e…
10-15 04:49:17	Will the biggest earthquake on October 15, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?	Yes	BUY	11	13¢	$1	0xcb386a…
10-15 04:49:16	Will the biggest earthquake on October 15, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?	Yes	BUY	7	20¢	$1	0xe846b4…
10-15 04:49:16	Will the biggest earthquake on October 15, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8?	Yes	BUY	9	17¢	$1	0x8d0bd0…
10-15 04:49:16	Will the biggest earthquake on October 15, 2026 be 6.1 or more?	Yes	BUY	7	22¢	$1	0x87c246…
10-15 04:49:16	Will the biggest earthquake on October 15, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6?	Yes	BUY	8	19¢	$1	0x58ff9d…
10-15 00:24:49	where will a 6pt0 magnitude earthquake occur by end of october 20260928t160000000z will a 6pt0 magnitude earthquake occur in chile this month	Yes	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0x36cc0a…
10-14 23:43:21	Will the biggest earthquake on October 14, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?	Yes	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x0b59df…
10-14 14:17:27	where will a 6pt0 magnitude earthquake occur by end of october 20260928t160000000z will a 6pt0 magnitude earthquake occur in chile this month	No	BUY	2	86¢	$1	0x966d00…
10-14 11:15:34	Will the biggest earthquake on October 14, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?	No	BUY	2	92¢	$1	0xa44566…
10-14 11:15:34	Will the biggest earthquake on October 14, 2026 be 6.1 or more?	Yes	BUY	8	18¢	$1	0x3fa55b…
10-14 10:55:08	Will the biggest earthquake on October 14, 2026 be under 5.3?	Yes	BUY	6	26¢	$1	0x7e97d3…
10-14 10:55:07	Will the biggest earthquake on October 14, 2026 be under 5.3?	Yes	BUY	6	27¢	$1	0x759543…
10-14 10:29:22	where will a 6pt0 magnitude earthquake occur by end of october 20260928t160000000z will a 6pt0 magnitude earthquake occur in philippines this month	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$1	0x2e885f…
10-14 10:23:11	Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Philippines this month?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xbc03ec…
10-14 08:27:17	Will the biggest earthquake on October 14, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6?	Yes	BUY	11	14¢	$1	0x7ea0c3…
10-14 08:20:14	Will the biggest earthquake on October 14, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?	Yes	BUY	17	9¢	$1	0xf290a2…
10-14 08:20:13	Will the biggest earthquake on October 14, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8?	Yes	BUY	14	11¢	$1	0x965cab…
10-14 07:50:04	Will the biggest earthquake on October 14, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x42455c…
10-14 07:50:02	Will the biggest earthquake on October 14, 2026 be 6.1 or more?	Yes	BUY	7	21¢	$1	0x1f0c13…
10-14 07:50:02	Will the biggest earthquake on October 14, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x053353…
10-14 07:50:01	Will the biggest earthquake on October 14, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8?	Yes	BUY	9	16¢	$1	0xf55e27…
10-14 07:50:01	Will the biggest earthquake on October 14, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0xed0665…
10-14 07:50:01	Will the biggest earthquake on October 14, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6?	Yes	BUY	7	20¢	$1	0x296bb6…
10-13 18:26:30	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on October 13?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xf48987…
10-13 18:00:01	Will the biggest earthquake on October 12, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xf79974…
10-13 18:00:01	Will the biggest earthquake on October 12, 2026 be 6.1 or more?	No	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x9b2892…
10-13 17:43:15	Will the biggest earthquake on October 13, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?	Yes	BUY	160	0¢	$0	0x6366a4…
10-13 16:56:03	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on October 13?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0xcb1102…
10-13 16:55:31	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x25225c…
10-13 15:54:04	Will the biggest earthquake on October 12, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?	Yes	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0x0d2d2b…
10-13 14:57:34	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xa39db6…
10-13 14:13:29	Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.50% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	13¢	$1	0xb8f267…
10-13 13:45:55	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on October 13?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x66d2e0…
10-13 13:29:44	Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Mexico this month?	Yes	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0xdbb77f…
10-13 13:17:14	Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Mexico this month?	No	BUY	2	72¢	$1	0xeaa16c…
10-13 12:41:22	Will there be 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	51	3¢	$1	0x898af9…
10-13 08:17:43	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on October 13?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xa14efc…
10-12 15:58:42	Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Indonesia this month?	No	BUY	3	58¢	$1	0xaf7c16…
10-11 18:21:49	Will 2026 rank below 15th among the highest domestic box office years?	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0x7456d8…
10-11 18:21:43	Will 2026 rank below 15th among the highest domestic box office years?	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0x8da19a…
10-11 02:22:08	Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Indonesia this month?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x8c2b69…
10-10 18:25:09	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in September?	Yes	SELL	78	3¢	$2	0x813dd2…
10-08 11:35:38	Will S8UL Esports Win the 2026 Esports Content Group of the Year Award?	Yes	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0x7b5181…
10-08 11:34:47	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 KY-06 House election by 0%-3%?	Yes	SELL	21	19¢	$4	0xf6d4b8…
10-08 03:26:31	Warriors vs. Trail Blazers	Warriors	SELL	18	32¢	$6	0x6ae7c8…
10-08 03:26:25	Warriors vs. Trail Blazers	Warriors	SELL	13	31¢	$4	0x8c71c0…
10-08 03:17:13	Warriors vs. Trail Blazers	Warriors	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x505328…
10-08 03:15:41	Warriors vs. Trail Blazers	Warriors	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x4a7ed0…
10-08 03:15:29	Warriors vs. Trail Blazers	Warriors	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x603cda…
10-08 03:14:04	Warriors vs. Trail Blazers	Warriors	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x066d5e…
10-08 03:13:49	Warriors vs. Trail Blazers	Warriors	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0xd84848…
10-05 07:26:23	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 5?	Yes	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0x7fdd57…
10-05 06:30:58	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xa97720…
10-04 20:58:44	Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	Yes	SELL	6	41¢	$2	0x802959…
10-02 11:56:20	Will 2026 rank below 15th among the highest domestic box office years?	Yes	SELL	11	10¢	$1	0x3124d8…
10-02 06:18:39	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Yes	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0x0f842f…
10-01 07:03:54	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Yes	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x26a810…
09-30 19:20:21	Will Lindsay Clancy be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?	Yes	SELL	4	35¢	$1	0x4709a4…
09-30 09:47:50	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xfe98e5…
09-29 22:38:32	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-05 House election by 35% or more?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x037920…