Normal-Poet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$21.3K

Unrealized P&L

+$9.59K

Hit rate

69.2%

Resolved

447

Trades

2,019

lifetime

Volume

$256.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$127

Open exposure

$11.9K

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-30 02:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 168 days

Categories

Other

64% 60% +$18,078

Tech

23% 62% +$4,787

Politics

11% 42% -$1,496

Crypto

1% 58% -$107

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

81 active days in 12wk • peak 44 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	+4,747	$115	78¢	$3.7K	+$3,568	10-13 17:03
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	+3,571	$500	99¢	$3.5K	+$3,043	09-30 20:07
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?	No	+1,710	$256	98¢	$1.7K	+$1,413	09-30 20:27
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+1,582	$215	98¢	$1.5K	+$1,332	09-30 20:06
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	No	+1,423	$925	78¢	$1.1K	+$178	09-05 15:41
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	+465	$335	84¢	$388	+$53	10-01 01:39
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	+5	$5	99¢	$5	+$0	10-06 11:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	27	$9.2K	9,973	9,973	+0	No	+$4,454	05-20 00:46
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?	2	$4.4K	3,343	3,343	+0	open	—	09-06 12:35
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	10	$4.4K	2,951	2,951	+0	Yes	+$159	10-08 17:34
will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732 695 129 613 539	5	$4.3K	2,517	2,517	+0	Yes	+$423	09-04 16:14
will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 12 hours	14	$4.2K	2,867	2,867	+0	Yes	-$53	08-21 05:43
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?	2	$4.2K	3,247	3,247	+0	Yes	+$2,230	08-05 03:27
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?	8	$4.0K	3,299	2,974	+326	Yes	+$491	07-09 16:23
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?	11	$3.7K	4,243	4,243	+0	No	-$61	09-11 21:32
will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	3	$3.6K	2,411	2,411	+0	No	+$1,014	06-11 01:09
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?	8	$3.5K	1,939	1,939	+0	No	+$35	09-11 21:26
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	10	$3.2K	2,954	2,954	+0	No	+$679	09-11 21:49
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	2	$2.8K	2,856	0	+2,856	No	+$70	10-09 09:06
Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?	3	$2.3K	1,505	1,505	+0	Yes	-$84	10-28 08:36
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	17	$2.3K	2,857	2,857	+0	Yes	-$189	02-28 18:07
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	4	$2.3K	1,347	1,347	+0	Yes	+$40	08-01 01:14
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	11	$2.2K	1,810	1,810	+0	Yes	+$83	02-19 05:25
will the highest score achieved by a google gemini model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 50 or higher 20260723192605546	7	$2.2K	1,615	1,615	+0	Yes	+$25	08-14 12:40
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	2	$2.1K	1,474	1,474	+0	Yes	+$715	09-29 08:50
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	13	$2.1K	2,446	2,446	+0	Yes	+$512	05-05 16:50
will the next google gemini flash model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490	4	$2.0K	1,154	1,154	+0	Yes	+$160	08-14 08:38
will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by december 31 2026 20260715004553752	2	$2.0K	1,300	1,300	+0	Yes	+$509	07-28 07:09
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	8	$2.0K	1,153	1,153	+0	Yes	-$74	10-13 22:34
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	6	$1.9K	1,158	1,158	+0	open	—	09-30 20:24
Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	4	$1.9K	1,101	1,101	+0	No	+$187	10-26 17:50
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	5	$1.8K	1,183	1,183	+0	Yes	+$34	06-16 13:35
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	8	$1.7K	3,532	2,109	+1,423	open	—	09-26 02:27
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	18	$1.7K	2,343	2,343	+0	Yes	-$365	03-05 03:56
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	4	$1.7K	1,068	1,068	+0	open	—	10-24 01:32
will openais astra model be released by september 15 2026 835 392 233 788	2	$1.7K	1,242	1,242	+0	Yes	+$712	09-04 16:14
deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	26	$1.6K	1,407	1,407	+0	No	+$586	04-14 04:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 05:51:43	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	835	54¢	$450	0xf041fb…
10-30 02:19:36	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0xf25d25…
10-30 02:06:21	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	840	53¢	$446	0xf4376b…
10-30 01:46:43	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	No	SELL	476	76¢	$360	0xeb0324…
10-30 01:33:30	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	668	56¢	$374	0xadc021…
10-30 01:06:51	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	267	73¢	$194	0x81238f…
10-30 01:02:24	Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	Yes	BUY	395	67¢	$267	0x007324…
10-29 16:11:56	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$3	0x15bb70…
10-29 16:01:07	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	668	26¢	$173	0xda7a0b…
10-29 13:55:37	Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	216	79¢	$171	0xcdb217…
10-29 13:26:10	Will Gemini Carbon debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	896	2¢	$15	0x758285…
10-29 13:25:50	Will Gemini Carbon debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	1,190	1¢	$14	0xcbae3a…
10-29 04:47:34	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	SELL	1,124	40¢	$455	0x0effac…
10-29 03:36:47	Will Gemini Carbon debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	400	4¢	$16	0xcf1b00…
10-29 03:34:05	Will Gemini Carbon debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	496	3¢	$13	0x97e27e…
10-29 03:17:08	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	60	19¢	$11	0x901b43…
10-29 02:13:49	Will Gemini Carbon debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	1,190	5¢	$65	0xbc1fb3…
10-29 02:10:13	Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	495	92¢	$455	0x5bd38d…
10-28 17:24:28	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?	Yes	BUY	33	94¢	$31	0x77f712…
10-28 17:23:16	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,407	97¢	$1,364	0x36302a…
10-28 17:22:28	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?	No	SELL	49	5¢	$2	0x1f593d…
10-28 17:15:34	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 58% or higher?	Yes	BUY	294	75¢	$221	0xa146a9…
10-28 17:08:47	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,767	1¢	$31	0xf17e42…
10-28 17:07:55	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,767	12¢	$344	0xb8778f…
10-28 11:08:28	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	No	BUY	476	50¢	$240	0x43abdf…
10-28 08:36:16	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,258	73¢	$920	0x337890…
10-28 08:33:49	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	247	81¢	$200	0x84419e…
10-28 08:30:26	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,505	80¢	$1,204	0xacd8e1…
10-28 03:33:51	Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	61¢	$18	0x820add…
10-28 03:33:28	Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	510	61¢	$311	0x5463e8…
10-28 02:23:14	Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,319	74¢	$972	0x23f92d…
10-28 02:22:51	Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	456	45¢	$203	0x301739…
10-28 02:21:09	Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	58¢	$116	0x6a5902…
10-28 01:58:29	Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	240	40¢	$96	0x217be9…
10-27 04:25:05	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	769	30¢	$231	0xf32e3e…
10-27 03:21:03	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	769	14¢	$111	0x0a080c…
10-26 19:00:06	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	660	20¢	$133	0x1d344c…
10-26 17:50:27	Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	1,065	95¢	$1,011	0x6dbe47…
10-26 17:46:32	Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0xea2282…
10-26 17:27:36	Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	36	95¢	$34	0x570e7f…
10-26 17:04:05	Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	1,101	78¢	$859	0xf75180…
10-26 08:43:03	US Gov confirms PHP2Shell exploited by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,099	30¢	$332	0x07ccec…
10-26 02:10:51	Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	193	11¢	$22	0xecb2ee…
10-25 22:43:33	US Gov confirms PHP2Shell exploited by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	82¢	$13	0x56f6ea…
10-24 10:07:45	Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	No	BUY	829	53¢	$438	0x0267cc…
10-24 09:37:48	Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	92¢	$15	0xa791da…
10-24 01:32:18	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	1,048	80¢	$838	0xff8ecf…
10-23 17:44:17	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	0	80¢	$0	0x67b0b7…
10-23 13:37:12	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0xf66598…
10-23 05:06:06	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	22	49¢	$11	0x573064…
10-23 01:26:51	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x6c12d1…
10-23 01:26:08	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	75	90¢	$67	0xbb234f…
10-23 01:16:27	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	2,096	33¢	$688	0x56af71…
10-23 01:11:57	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	1,068	77¢	$827	0x592c5b…
10-23 00:54:17	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	375	59¢	$220	0x308651…
10-23 00:53:12	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	392	58¢	$226	0x5b7e23…
10-23 00:52:09	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,004	20¢	$196	0xd90b49…
10-22 16:23:47	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 22?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0xc97892…
10-22 14:09:50	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1470?	No	BUY	145	60¢	$86	0x6e7f06…
10-21 18:56:09	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	310	46¢	$143	0x9b8d04…
10-21 18:44:47	CISA confirms PHP2Shell exploited by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	407	74¢	$301	0x07ab08…
10-21 17:43:36	Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x6059f6…
10-21 17:43:33	Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x77e0f1…
10-21 17:21:51	US Gov confirms PHP flaw under attack by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	80¢	$12	0x519aec…
10-21 17:11:21	CISA confirms PHP2Shell exploited by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	67¢	$80	0x608389…
10-21 07:58:53	Marseille public gathering ban effectively lifted by October 21?	Yes	BUY	405	97¢	$392	0x03ba81…
10-20 23:24:59	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	717	0¢	$3	0xbbfd2e…
10-20 21:31:03	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	940	12¢	$112	0x12c40d…
10-20 21:30:41	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,066	1¢	$7	0x96cec5…
10-20 13:47:53	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	873	30¢	$263	0x0b1bfc…
10-20 08:12:40	Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	193	8¢	$15	0x771804…
10-20 03:51:57	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?	Yes	SELL	1,123	26¢	$292	0x2e29f0…
10-19 18:32:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	217	91¢	$197	0xb2e565…
10-19 18:30:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	217	92¢	$200	0xf23c37…
10-19 16:54:44	Paris curfew by October 19?	Yes	BUY	826	85¢	$700	0x7a2fc5…
10-19 16:54:00	Paris curfew by October 31?	Yes	BUY	636	89¢	$566	0x4ac5f1…
10-19 14:33:14	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	32	12¢	$4	0x68324b…
10-19 14:08:23	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x383064…
10-19 14:08:18	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	55	15¢	$8	0xdc9173…
10-19 14:02:20	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	16¢	$155	0x6008c4…
10-19 14:02:06	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	856	34¢	$294	0x849ba0…
10-19 14:02:06	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	205	33¢	$68	0x6f0253…
10-19 11:41:18	Paris curfew by October 24?	Yes	BUY	800	32¢	$256	0x3dfce8…
10-19 11:16:20	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	268	45¢	$120	0x59de6a…
10-19 11:16:02	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	124	45¢	$56	0x108f0e…
10-19 11:14:42	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	45¢	$49	0x2cc37d…
10-19 05:04:45	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,004	10¢	$101	0xbcd77f…
10-18 08:05:53	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?	Yes	SELL	1	26¢	$0	0x1ee493…
10-17 13:38:23	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?	No	SELL	325	85¢	$276	0x3fc8b8…
10-17 12:39:02	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0xaae8dd…
10-17 12:39:02	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0x826902…
10-17 12:39:02	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?	No	SELL	40	85¢	$34	0x300637…
10-17 12:39:02	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?	No	SELL	80	85¢	$68	0x1d4d02…
10-17 12:39:02	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0x192105…
10-17 12:22:20	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?	Yes	SELL	63	26¢	$16	0xf0d811…
10-17 12:21:36	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?	Yes	SELL	16	26¢	$4	0xf3c595…
10-17 09:14:56	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	161	15¢	$23	0xf1476b…
10-17 09:14:56	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	15¢	$10	0xae7a53…
10-17 09:14:56	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	134	14¢	$19	0x83d973…
10-17 09:14:56	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	15¢	$11	0x4f9437…