Realized P&L
-$451
Unrealized P&L
-$0
Hit rate
17.1%
Resolved
277
Trades
842
lifetime
Volume
$5.57K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$7
Open exposure
$60
30 positions
First seen
2026-07-31
last 10-26 21:32
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 45 days
Categories
Other
62% 30% -$291
Politics
26% 15% -$99
Crypto
6% 52% -$30
Tech
5% 30% -$1
Sports
1% 33% -$23
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$6
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
47 active days in 12wk • peak 124 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +3 $2 98¢ $3 +$1 10-23 17:22
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? No +3 $2 92¢ $3 +$1 09-12 14:13
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No +3 $2 84¢ $3 +$1 09-21 18:42
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No +4 $2 68¢ $3 +$1 09-13 16:59
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +3 $2 92¢ $2 +$0 10-22 16:44
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? No +31 $2 8¢ $2 +$0 10-26 14:50
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? Yes +4 $2 60¢ $2 +$0 09-15 07:17
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? No +3 $2 72¢ $2 +$0 10-23 08:19
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? No +2 $2 98¢ $2 +$0 10-23 12:45
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No +2 $2 97¢ $2 +$0 09-19 05:16
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +2 $2 94¢ $2 +$0 09-12 03:08
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No +2 $2 89¢ $2 +$0 10-23 23:18
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +2 $2 99¢ $2 +$0 10-23 13:21
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? No +3 $2 78¢ $2 +$0 10-22 20:02
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +2 $2 96¢ $2 +$0 10-23 09:50
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +2 $2 82¢ $2 +$0 10-25 20:03
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No +2 $2 85¢ $2 $0 10-25 19:11
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? No +2 $2 98¢ $2 $0 10-26 17:41
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) No +2 $2 94¢ $2 $0 10-25 14:39
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No +2 $2 80¢ $2 $0 10-25 19:07
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +2 $2 92¢ $2 $0 10-23 13:44
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31? No +3 $2 74¢ $2 $0 10-26 17:33
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes +7 $2 24¢ $2 $0 09-22 14:55
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? Yes +8 $2 22¢ $2 $0 10-22 17:04
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes +57 $2 2¢ $1 -$1 09-18 21:25
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026? Yes +4 $2 30¢ $1 -$1 09-12 12:24
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes +10 $2 12¢ $1 -$1 09-11 23:25
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Yes +7 $2 16¢ $1 -$1 09-11 12:32
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? Yes +27 $2 4¢ $1 -$1 10-25 19:35
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes +6 $2 14¢ $1 -$1 09-16 19:05