Scholarly-Psychology — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$36

Unrealized P&L

+$164

Hit rate

48.6%

Resolved (90d)

465

Trades (90d)

1,363

3,122 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$42.2K

$114.1K lifetime

Avg / trade

$37

Open exposure

$1.42K

6 positions

First seen

2026-04-08

last 11-07 09:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 158 days

Categories

Politics

33% 33% +$572

Crypto

31% 32% +$282

Other

30% 32% -$562

Sports

4% 23% +$63

Tech

2% 21% -$252

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$49

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

63 active days in 12wk • peak 170 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+1,200	$976	82¢	$981	+$5	05-25 22:21
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+1,200	$226	18¢	$219	-$7	05-25 22:21
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+160	$77	79¢	$126	+$49	10-28 05:19
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?	No	+90	$27	96¢	$87	+$59	11-07 09:54
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	+410	$13	3¢	$11	-$2	11-03 15:03
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	-$58	12¢	$0	+$58	09-07 06:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	38	$2.3K	2,038	2,038	+0	No	+$27	04-15 18:36
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?	32	$2.3K	2,593	2,593	+0	No	+$29	09-02 16:16
fifwc can qat 2026 06 18 total 4pt5	2	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	Over	+$0	06-18 23:27
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	20	$1.4K	1,880	880	+1,000	Yes	+$165	07-07 07:27
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	8	$1.2K	2,426	26	+2,400	open	—	05-25 22:21
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?	10	$1.1K	1,057	1,057	+0	No	+$10	04-12 18:06
fifwc swe tun 2026 06 14 total 4pt5	2	$1.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	Over	-$180	06-15 03:42
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?	7	$855	662	662	+0	Yes	+$85	04-10 07:19
fifwc swe tun 2026 06 14 first half total 1pt5	2	$847	862	862	+0	Over	-$153	06-15 02:29
fifwc can qat 2026 06 18 total 5pt5	2	$819	500	500	+0	Over	+$171	06-18 23:53
fifwc sco mar 2026 06 19 corners total 6pt5	3	$790	500	500	+0	Over	-$70	06-19 22:58
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	20	$790	683	683	+0	No	+$110	04-18 22:17
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	24	$779	795	795	+0	Yes	-$33	04-12 13:14
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?	5	$745	333	500	-167	Yes	-$23	04-12 21:19
iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	18	$744	738	737	+0	No	+$112	07-19 09:09
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	10	$655	2,222	1,783	+439	No	+$518	05-25 04:02
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	16	$627	699	699	+0	Yes	+$89	09-05 03:05
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	8	$623	501	501	+0	Yes	+$35	04-20 14:45
iran closes its airspace by june 8	23	$615	2,490	490	+2,000	Yes	-$284	06-12 00:15
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	8	$613	560	560	+0	Yes	+$207	07-01 21:21
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	7	$613	1,358	660	+698	Yes	-$12	06-14 16:04
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	10	$606	3,376	3,376	+0	No	+$48	06-02 22:22
iran military action against a gulf state on july 23 20260708212322948	10	$605	412	412	+0	No	+$174	07-28 14:48
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5	3	$598	570	570	+0	Under	+$6	06-15 19:25
fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 first half total 1pt5	4	$584	606	606	+0	Over	-$96	06-17 20:39
Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?	4	$555	301	301	+0	No	-$8	09-01 14:10
LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	10	$536	547	547	+0	Yes	-$28	09-09 16:57
uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	10	$523	736	736	+0	No	+$225	07-31 19:44
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5	2	$520	1,200	1,200	+0	Under	-$80	06-14 23:44
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	16	$519	560	560	+0	No	-$43	04-20 05:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 09:54:57	Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?	No	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x1504f4…
11-07 03:57:03	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	24	67¢	$16	0x359454…
11-07 03:16:58	Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?	No	BUY	16	33¢	$5	0x9e4cd4…
11-07 03:16:58	Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x7ac665…
11-07 03:13:12	Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?	No	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0xff399c…
11-07 02:09:28	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	203	67¢	$135	0xd3ef2d…
11-06 18:52:33	Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?	No	BUY	40	27¢	$11	0x686b1c…
11-05 21:00:30	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	128	100¢	$127	0x13e093…
11-05 20:30:31	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	43¢	$12	0x24ab50…
11-05 19:58:19	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	38¢	$19	0xc5a123…
11-05 19:52:09	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x4ca7a9…
11-05 19:51:18	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x68e9c1…
11-05 19:41:59	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	35¢	$10	0x8cfde4…
11-03 15:03:07	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	410	3¢	$12	0x2d2dd9…
11-03 03:50:10	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	SELL	139	48¢	$67	0xcff262…
11-03 02:39:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	44	64¢	$28	0x556052…
11-03 02:39:07	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	95	64¢	$61	0x76f5ca…
11-03 02:36:10	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	SELL	100	40¢	$40	0xb77b55…
11-03 01:30:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0x2cce1f…
11-03 01:26:22	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	48	85¢	$41	0x8a701b…
11-03 01:15:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	146	38¢	$55	0x06c07d…
11-03 01:04:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	26	59¢	$15	0xddc81e…
11-03 01:04:34	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	120	50¢	$60	0xff8b4a…
11-03 00:41:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	126	35¢	$43	0x19b943…
11-02 22:18:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	126	57¢	$72	0x6a2c7c…
11-02 17:30:37	Will Trump say "Burger" in October?	Yes	SELL	150	1¢	$2	0x3a6449…
11-02 16:56:15	Will Trump say "Burger" in October?	Yes	BUY	150	30¢	$45	0x6e9e06…
11-02 07:07:33	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	227	23¢	$52	0x6bac1d…
11-01 02:32:36	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	SELL	66	98¢	$65	0xfc15c3…
11-01 01:38:00	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	SELL	14	95¢	$14	0x62ba70…
11-01 01:37:52	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x079251…
10-31 23:50:01	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	54¢	$54	0x165fda…
10-31 20:16:28	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 27?	No	BUY	15	70¢	$10	0xb8bf8f…
10-30 08:29:00	Cambria FDV above $30M one day after launch?	No	SELL	22	95¢	$21	0xb04f63…
10-30 08:28:36	Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	No	SELL	60	94¢	$57	0x2425aa…
10-30 06:40:58	SSI public model released by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0x0c56d1…
10-29 15:56:10	Cambria FDV above $30M one day after launch?	No	SELL	42	91¢	$39	0x72e327…
10-29 15:02:59	Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x14e4fc…
10-29 12:58:13	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,920	1¢	$10	0xf35094…
10-28 13:45:26	Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	55	18¢	$10	0x6bc1e9…
10-28 06:37:49	Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	74	9¢	$6	0xec3992…
10-28 06:37:47	Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	9¢	$5	0x0ba08a…
10-28 05:19:26	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	160	48¢	$77	0xb7edd2…
10-27 17:10:05	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	73	13¢	$9	0xa4fe70…
10-27 15:20:14	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	35	31¢	$11	0xbc9cca…
10-27 15:16:26	Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	55	33¢	$18	0xfb903d…
10-27 09:15:39	Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	125	24¢	$30	0x427cb2…
10-27 09:06:38	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	38	21¢	$8	0x6e080f…
10-27 08:53:17	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	248	3¢	$8	0x651b91…
10-27 08:52:11	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	248	4¢	$9	0xea61da…
10-25 22:55:00	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	154	25¢	$39	0x6cf391…
10-25 22:43:29	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	154	32¢	$50	0x2c2277…
10-20 19:05:38	Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	No	BUY	35	38¢	$13	0x12675b…
10-20 19:05:27	Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xe916ce…
10-20 19:05:03	Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	153	9¢	$13	0xfee3bf…
10-18 23:12:09	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,420	0¢	$7	0xa8607b…
10-14 13:17:48	romanian pm bolojan out by october 310728191800216	No	BUY	122	16¢	$20	0xbd65e9…
10-14 13:00:45	romanian pm bolojan out by october 310728191800216	No	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0x7260fc…
10-14 09:46:31	Romanian PM Bolojan out by October 31?	No	BUY	24	16¢	$4	0xabbc65…
10-14 09:42:16	Romanian PM Bolojan out by October 31?	No	BUY	4	16¢	$1	0x0e67c3…
10-13 19:50:04	Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	53	7¢	$4	0x8875e3…
10-12 20:15:39	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	Yes	SELL	91	1¢	$0	0x9a2d83…
10-12 20:12:03	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	Yes	SELL	91	28¢	$25	0x0f27b9…
10-12 20:09:53	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	Yes	BUY	182	33¢	$60	0x6147e9…
10-07 16:43:29	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 12?	No	SELL	130	9¢	$11	0xf6a9ca…
10-07 16:41:38	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 12?	No	BUY	130	10¢	$13	0x698603…
10-07 06:34:56	Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0xd5c5fc…
10-06 22:20:15	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1?	Yes	BUY	110	33¢	$37	0xef61da…
10-05 18:06:08	Romanian PM Bolojan out by October 31?	No	SELL	70	50¢	$35	0x04703d…
10-05 03:17:34	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	No	BUY	200	3¢	$6	0x9b95b6…
10-05 02:05:58	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	No	BUY	65	6¢	$4	0x131399…
10-05 01:57:07	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	Yes	SELL	84	92¢	$77	0x405623…
10-05 01:48:11	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	92¢	$15	0x976ee2…
10-05 01:32:47	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0x1abf7c…
10-04 22:32:40	Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?	No	SELL	315	10¢	$33	0x0eef43…
10-04 21:56:02	romanian pm bolojan out by october 310728191800216	No	BUY	70	58¢	$41	0xbdf02a…
10-04 02:00:43	Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	110	31¢	$34	0x795f20…
10-02 15:30:18	Renan Santos participates in debate before first round?	Yes	BUY	250	1¢	$2	0xe68f36…
10-02 13:48:02	Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	16¢	$10	0x74b089…
10-01 18:55:15	Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	16¢	$8	0xeb90ac…
10-01 18:52:26	Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	92	17¢	$16	0x0786cd…
10-01 17:40:33	Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x44e035…
10-01 17:40:33	Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	17¢	$0	0x146573…
10-01 07:32:05	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0x838249…
10-01 05:14:36	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x0db6a6…
10-01 05:11:54	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	30	39¢	$12	0x735fce…
10-01 05:08:09	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x79f694…
10-01 02:41:33	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	BUY	336	0¢	$1	0xacd347…
10-01 02:39:51	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x5f21b3…
10-01 02:36:24	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xae7b95…
10-01 02:10:42	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	BUY	27	0¢	$0	0xee8ecf…
10-01 02:07:12	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	BUY	118	0¢	$0	0xc48aec…
10-01 02:05:50	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x7f4a6e…
10-01 01:49:32	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	1¢	$4	0x76634d…
09-30 20:24:45	Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?	No	SELL	50	27¢	$13	0xe4e8d6…
09-30 19:51:41	Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?	No	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0x27755d…
09-30 19:47:09	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 31	No	SELL	88	38¢	$33	0x0607b9…
09-30 18:59:35	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	29¢	$14	0x6f1059…
09-30 18:59:17	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	32¢	$16	0xbcb90d…
09-30 18:51:06	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x13e835…