Short-Rise — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$413.0K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

57.4%

Resolved

Trades

2,234

lifetime

Volume

$5.26M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$2.35K

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-21

last 07-13 17:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 49 days

Categories

Politics

79% 63% -$313,653

Other

20% 43% -$72,858

Sports

0% 0% -$24,344

Crypto

0% 0% -$2,104

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-13).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	247	$639.0K	488,273	204,606	+283,667	No	-$5,359	02-20 07:44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	94	$460.9K	261,600	261,600	+0	Yes	+$42,081	06-15 21:40
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	152	$449.0K	499,694	499,694	+0	Yes	-$341,767	02-28 06:42
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	77	$306.9K	316,199	0	+316,199	No	+$9,263	02-13 21:09
cbb iowa fl 2026 03 22	2	$273.9K	165,000	165,000	+0	Iowa Hawkeyes	+$0	03-21 16:55
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	171	$273.4K	289,102	0	+289,102	No	+$15,659	02-21 08:41
us strikes iran by january 24 2026 318	34	$241.0K	122,187	122,187	+0	No	+$3,097	01-25 04:44
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	14	$239.5K	121,635	121,635	+0	No	+$3,514	01-24 05:42
cbb lou mst 2026 03 21	4	$213.6K	309,547	309,547	+0	Michigan State Spartans	-$3,095	03-21 15:14
us strikes iran by february 14 2026	4	$212.4K	213,468	0	+213,468	No	+$1,054	02-14 17:45
us strikes iran by february 15 2026	81	$191.9K	162,270	31,000	+131,270	No	+$1,152	02-15 21:55
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	1	$163.2K	170,000	0	+170,000	No	+$6,800	01-31 15:53
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	55	$139.6K	94,449	47,850	+46,599	No	-$1,104	02-18 18:58
us strikes iran by february 17 2026 833	13	$124.1K	125,375	0	+125,375	No	+$1,276	02-17 12:48
over 25m committed to the laso finance public sale 663 611 164	23	$116.6K	64,520	64,520	+0	Yes	+$3,951	07-04 16:30
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	56	$91.5K	93,913	0	+93,913	No	+$2,408	02-18 23:03
us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	46	$86.0K	46,394	46,394	+0	No	+$3,246	01-25 07:40
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	177	$80.3K	313,341	313,541	-200	No	-$24,476	03-27 05:27
us strikes iran by february 1 2026	52	$75.5K	40,000	40,000	+0	No	+$3,520	02-01 14:27
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	63	$64.4K	61,827	61,827	+0	No	-$27,000	05-29 15:24
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?	20	$53.7K	31,503	31,503	+0	No	+$8,543	04-30 07:50
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	5	$51.2K	30,327	30,327	+0	Yes	-$1,647	07-10 20:53
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	30	$47.8K	119,344	119,344	+0	Yes	-$5,862	06-16 16:02
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	22	$47.5K	26,426	26,426	+0	Yes	+$3,261	06-15 00:01
us strikes iran by february 16 2026 732 528	11	$46.3K	31,734	15,000	+16,734	No	+$210	02-15 21:54
netanyahu out by march 31 854	87	$45.6K	565,126	565,126	+0	No	-$19,399	03-18 10:24
us strikes iran by february 12 2026 525	17	$41.2K	42,522	0	+42,522	No	+$1,322	02-10 12:15
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	15	$39.0K	20,161	20,161	+0	No	+$609	02-22 09:37
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	161	$35.6K	59,020	59,020	+0	Yes	+$24	03-23 12:22
over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	18	$34.1K	31,788	31,788	+0	No	-$19,937	07-04 17:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-13 17:01:25	over 10m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325645	Yes	SELL	31	90¢	$28	0x3ffc4f…
07-13 16:15:53	over 10m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325645	Yes	SELL	15	90¢	$13	0x038943…
07-13 00:35:56	over 10m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325645	Yes	SELL	536	90¢	$482	0x4450db…
07-12 12:56:44	over 10m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325645	Yes	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0xcc4e12…
07-12 12:56:44	over 10m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325645	Yes	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0xb573d6…
07-12 12:56:28	over 8m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325644	Yes	SELL	178	93¢	$166	0x996368…
07-12 12:56:17	over 20m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325650	Yes	SELL	12	67¢	$8	0xad1093…
07-12 12:56:13	over 18m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325649	Yes	SELL	206	74¢	$153	0xde8213…
07-12 12:56:04	over 16m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325648	Yes	SELL	61	81¢	$49	0x262fbe…
07-12 12:55:50	over 12m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325646	Yes	SELL	388	87¢	$336	0xe4dcf7…
07-12 12:55:37	over 10m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325645	Yes	SELL	1,050	90¢	$946	0xce3db7…
07-11 19:09:56	Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	31,963	24¢	$7,591	0x9a11bc…
07-11 11:09:53	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Conor McGregor	BUY	5,071	31¢	$1,572	0x603115…
07-11 11:04:56	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Conor McGregor	BUY	48,387	31¢	$15,000	0x9a7927…
07-11 10:40:26	over 25m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325651	Yes	SELL	5,455	56¢	$3,054	0xc93930…
07-11 09:49:43	over 12m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325646	Yes	BUY	55	89¢	$49	0x083b20…
07-11 09:44:53	over 25m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325651	Yes	SELL	70	66¢	$46	0x7e3aa4…
07-11 09:42:52	over 8m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325644	Yes	BUY	15	91¢	$14	0xd4ce69…
07-11 09:42:44	over 12m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325646	Yes	BUY	115	89¢	$102	0x442855…
07-11 09:39:25	over 25m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325651	Yes	SELL	30	66¢	$20	0x1003af…
07-10 22:38:07	over 12m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325646	Yes	BUY	28	89¢	$24	0x377328…
07-10 20:53:38	Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	SELL	22,274	90¢	$20,103	0x0fbf6f…
07-10 20:50:11	Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	BUY	22,274	90¢	$20,000	0x6f5bd0…
07-10 20:14:44	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	SELL	14,963	14¢	$2,103	0x05a60e…
07-10 19:49:07	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	BUY	14,963	13¢	$2,000	0x3d95ac…
07-10 19:47:16	Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	SELL	8,053	58¢	$4,651	0xe6357a…
07-10 19:31:35	Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	BUY	6,281	80¢	$5,000	0x206526…
07-10 19:31:13	Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	BUY	1,772	79¢	$1,400	0xa5bb97…
07-10 18:53:08	over 18m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325649	Yes	BUY	22	80¢	$18	0xae86e3…
07-10 18:52:49	over 10m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325645	Yes	BUY	63	93¢	$59	0x4b0328…
07-10 18:52:37	over 8m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325644	Yes	BUY	63	93¢	$59	0xfd303c…
07-10 18:50:59	over 18m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325649	Yes	BUY	79	80¢	$63	0x4786c1…
07-10 18:50:22	over 12m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325646	Yes	BUY	191	90¢	$172	0x8c7705…
07-10 18:50:11	over 10m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325645	Yes	BUY	214	93¢	$199	0x429fe9…
07-10 18:50:02	over 8m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325644	Yes	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xcf3499…
07-10 17:00:34	over 18m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325649	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xe6fc30…
07-10 16:59:49	over 10m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325645	Yes	BUY	123	93¢	$114	0x3279c2…
07-10 16:54:37	over 18m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325649	Yes	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0xea2618…
07-10 12:09:02	over 18m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325649	Yes	BUY	25	78¢	$19	0x164792…
07-10 10:59:50	over 25m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325651	Yes	BUY	5,555	66¢	$3,666	0xf4cfc8…
07-10 10:53:05	over 16m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325648	Yes	BUY	14	83¢	$12	0x83d6ae…
07-10 10:37:29	over 16m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325648	Yes	BUY	29	83¢	$24	0x8d7431…
07-10 10:28:02	over 16m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325648	Yes	BUY	17	83¢	$14	0xcb05ac…
07-10 09:39:35	over 10m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325645	Yes	BUY	21	92¢	$19	0x1c3bf3…
07-10 08:48:56	over 10m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325645	Yes	BUY	1,250	92¢	$1,150	0x3e362e…
07-09 21:43:22	over 20m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325650	Yes	BUY	12	68¢	$8	0xd6cc12…
07-04 17:12:26	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	No	SELL	1,240	100¢	$1,235	0x81e20e…
07-04 16:54:05	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	No	BUY	297	90¢	$266	0xb0ecc6…
07-04 16:46:07	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	No	BUY	943	90¢	$849	0xdce438…
07-04 16:31:56	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	SELL	4,404	6¢	$282	0xb64ccf…
07-04 16:31:19	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	SELL	3,200	10¢	$316	0xb2af55…
07-04 16:30:49	over 25m committed to the laso finance public sale 663 611 164	Yes	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x036189…
07-04 16:30:16	over 45m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	SELL	7,484	0¢	$33	0xf7d0b4…
07-04 16:30:07	over 40m committed to the laso finance public sale 638	Yes	SELL	8,638	1¢	$71	0x48a8c8…
07-04 16:29:35	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	SELL	396	14¢	$55	0x2bc011…
07-04 16:29:04	over 25m committed to the laso finance public sale 663 611 164	Yes	SELL	12,595	94¢	$11,839	0xd55f15…
07-04 16:28:53	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	SELL	5,029	9¢	$461	0x90c50f…
07-04 16:28:41	over 25m committed to the laso finance public sale 663 611 164	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xd4554f…
07-04 16:28:40	over 25m committed to the laso finance public sale 663 611 164	Yes	SELL	4	94¢	$4	0x5cc64a…
07-04 16:28:14	over 25m committed to the laso finance public sale 663 611 164	Yes	SELL	9,544	93¢	$8,876	0x58d42b…
07-04 16:27:26	over 25m committed to the laso finance public sale 663 611 164	Yes	SELL	3,000	92¢	$2,758	0x868da2…
07-04 16:26:41	over 25m committed to the laso finance public sale 663 611 164	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xfe6df6…
07-04 16:26:40	over 25m committed to the laso finance public sale 663 611 164	Yes	SELL	4	94¢	$4	0xb815f4…
07-04 16:26:40	over 25m committed to the laso finance public sale 663 611 164	Yes	SELL	11	94¢	$11	0x67ec8e…
07-04 16:26:40	over 25m committed to the laso finance public sale 663 611 164	Yes	SELL	3,999	92¢	$3,666	0x669b87…
07-04 16:26:25	over 25m committed to the laso finance public sale 663 611 164	Yes	SELL	8,000	92¢	$7,383	0xc04968…
07-04 16:26:22	over 25m committed to the laso finance public sale 663 611 164	Yes	SELL	9,340	94¢	$8,780	0x8a9cfa…
07-04 16:25:25	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	SELL	3,777	18¢	$671	0x313fdf…
07-04 16:25:13	over 25m committed to the laso finance public sale 663 611 164	Yes	SELL	3,500	94¢	$3,283	0xe2278c…
07-04 16:24:50	over 25m committed to the laso finance public sale 663 611 164	Yes	SELL	8,190	94¢	$7,699	0xf12d4b…
07-04 16:24:25	over 25m committed to the laso finance public sale 663 611 164	Yes	SELL	1,810	94¢	$1,703	0x7a424d…
07-04 16:22:44	over 25m committed to the laso finance public sale 663 611 164	Yes	SELL	4,520	94¢	$4,249	0x168af7…
07-04 16:20:13	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0xe240ed…
07-04 16:18:19	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	SELL	97	31¢	$30	0x501804…
07-04 16:17:11	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	SELL	6,358	29¢	$1,844	0xce23ec…
07-04 16:14:20	over 40m committed to the laso finance public sale 638	Yes	SELL	3,000	5¢	$146	0x8e58a6…
07-04 16:13:28	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	SELL	6,000	29¢	$1,748	0x66ed55…
07-04 16:12:10	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	SELL	1,282	35¢	$449	0x865e8d…
07-04 05:40:44	over 40m committed to the laso finance public sale 638	Yes	SELL	1,258	15¢	$188	0x817a2b…
07-04 05:39:37	over 35m committed to the laso finance public sale 555 417	Yes	SELL	12,460	20¢	$2,494	0x362327…
07-03 18:23:23	over 45m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0xc977e2…
07-03 18:15:37	over 45m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	SELL	12	23¢	$3	0xa5dc8e…
07-03 12:24:59	over 40m committed to the laso finance public sale 638	Yes	SELL	104	38¢	$40	0x4adf59…
07-03 09:09:14	over 45m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	SELL	1,878	23¢	$432	0x04a089…
07-02 17:01:05	over 45m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	SELL	5,622	23¢	$1,293	0x65dbfe…
07-02 16:42:01	over 40m committed to the laso finance public sale 638	Yes	SELL	2,000	27¢	$537	0x3d0f2a…
07-02 04:10:38	over 45m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	95	47¢	$45	0xc3eff8…
07-02 04:10:19	over 45m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	500	47¢	$235	0x371370…
07-02 03:34:19	over 45m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x96a4d2…
07-02 03:03:44	over 45m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	189	47¢	$89	0xeb0479…
07-02 03:01:05	over 45m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	300	47¢	$141	0x6e908c…
07-02 02:49:34	over 45m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	251	47¢	$118	0xa0b9ac…
07-02 02:45:29	over 45m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	6,960	47¢	$3,271	0xc098de…
07-02 02:44:56	over 40m committed to the laso finance public sale 638	Yes	BUY	5,220	54¢	$2,819	0x5cfc71…
07-02 02:42:47	over 45m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	56	47¢	$27	0x485d85…
07-02 02:42:16	over 45m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xf7b8e6…
07-02 02:42:04	over 45m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	82	47¢	$39	0xd67597…
07-02 02:42:04	over 45m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	70	47¢	$33	0x8ad557…
07-02 02:42:04	over 45m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	2,830	47¢	$1,330	0x4811fb…
07-02 02:41:04	over 40m committed to the laso finance public sale 638	Yes	BUY	1,232	54¢	$665	0xf5183d…