Likable-Temporariness — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

26.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.31K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-17

last 08-06 09:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

64% 0% $-39

Politics

34% 100% +$57

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
macron out by december 31 2026 20260728190614227	8	$456	5,885	0	+5,885	open	—	08-06 09:20
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	5	$346	8,309	9,585	-1,276	open	—	06-06 02:50
highest temperature in nyc on march 29 2026 52 53f	2	$59	70	70	+0	open	—	03-29 19:31
highest temperature in nyc on april 1 2026 74 75f	3	$50	209	0	+209	open	—	04-01 14:00
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	1	$46	0	287	-287	open	—	05-29 00:22
epl mun mac 2026 01 17 mac	1	$40	82	0	+82	open	—	01-17 11:02
China coup attempt before 2027?	1	$34	0	989	-989	open	—	05-29 00:26
highest temperature in nyc on march 28 2026 42 43f	4	$32	25	25	+0	open	—	03-29 03:01
New pandemic in 2026?	2	$26	10	250	-240	open	—	06-11 04:42
Iran leadership change by December 31?	1	$24	0	91	-91	open	—	05-29 00:01
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	2	$21	16	16	+0	open	—	04-07 23:37
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	2	$21	177	177	+0	No	$-19	04-13 03:25
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	1	$20	516	0	+516	No	$-20	03-20 10:02
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?	1	$17	0	130	-130	open	—	05-29 00:30
highest temperature in nyc on march 28 2026 44 45f	2	$14	24	24	+0	open	—	03-28 15:28
Ebola pandemic in 2026?	1	$12	0	125	-125	open	—	05-29 00:08
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	1	$12	0	125	-125	open	—	06-02 07:30
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	1	$10	100	0	+100	open	—	02-28 20:37
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	1	$10	91	0	+91	open	—	06-18 02:17
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	2	$10	30	0	+30	Yes	+$20	04-08 07:27
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	1	$10	0	79	-79	open	—	06-02 01:14
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	1	$9	0	137	-137	open	—	05-29 00:06
bitcoin above 96k on january 18	1	$8	30	0	+30	open	—	01-17 18:22
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	1	$7	0	26	-26	open	—	05-29 00:02
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$5	42	0	+42	Yes	+$37	04-08 07:29
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	1	$3	0	133	-133	open	—	06-03 02:34
Iran leadership change by June 30?	1	$2	0	51	-51	open	—	06-03 02:34
starmer out by august 31 2026	1	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	06-11 04:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-06 09:20:36	macron out by december 31 2026 20260728190614227	Yes	BUY	714	5¢	$36	0x166d7b…
08-05 08:00:08	macron out by december 31 2026 20260728190614227	Yes	BUY	1,087	12¢	$130	0x7d53dd…
08-05 07:19:14	macron out by december 31 2026 20260728190614227	Yes	BUY	80	13¢	$10	0x405c06…
08-04 10:18:14	macron out by december 31 2026 20260728190614227	Yes	BUY	409	5¢	$20	0x05743f…
08-02 10:50:33	macron out by december 31 2026 20260728190614227	Yes	BUY	1,429	7¢	$100	0x4b266c…
08-01 20:14:26	macron out by december 31 2026 20260728190614227	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x8eb1da…
08-01 20:13:47	macron out by december 31 2026 20260728190614227	Yes	BUY	1,429	7¢	$100	0xf3a3e3…
07-31 13:21:17	macron out by december 31 2026 20260728190614227	Yes	BUY	736	8¢	$60	0x94721c…
06-18 02:17:50	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x246a86…
06-11 04:49:46	starmer out by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x3536ff…
06-11 04:42:30	New pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xcc0cd5…
06-06 02:50:07	Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	9,585	0¢	$18	0x64b495…
06-03 02:34:53	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	No	SELL	133	2¢	$3	0xdd9ba4…
06-03 02:34:45	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	51	5¢	$2	0xc806cc…
06-02 08:54:29	Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	494	2¢	$8	0x83210b…
06-02 07:30:11	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	125	10¢	$12	0x6e6a3f…
06-02 01:14:03	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	SELL	79	12¢	$10	0x58b03f…
06-01 07:59:31	Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	1,554	3¢	$40	0xb93e80…
05-31 22:04:11	Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	3,212	4¢	$130	0x547eb4…
05-31 15:26:41	Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	3,048	5¢	$150	0xba55b5…
05-29 00:30:32	Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	130	13¢	$17	0xb65294…
05-29 00:26:09	China coup attempt before 2027?	Yes	SELL	989	3¢	$34	0xdd1bd7…
05-29 00:22:22	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	287	16¢	$46	0xac0897…
05-29 00:08:55	Ebola pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	125	10¢	$12	0x03cd65…
05-29 00:07:19	New pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	10¢	$25	0xaeef56…
05-29 00:06:07	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	137	6¢	$9	0x9c068f…
05-29 00:02:40	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	26	27¢	$7	0x736fb1…
05-29 00:01:51	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	91	27¢	$24	0xffd7fd…
04-13 03:25:09	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	177	0¢	$1	0xe7ab9b…
04-08 07:29:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x30b095…
04-08 07:27:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x5e99f8…
04-07 23:37:33	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x027099…
04-01 14:00:11	highest temperature in nyc on april 1 2026 74 75f	Yes	BUY	55	18¢	$10	0x05568c…
04-01 09:18:41	highest temperature in nyc on april 1 2026 74 75f	Yes	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0xd6eb47…
03-31 23:39:59	highest temperature in nyc on april 1 2026 74 75f	Yes	BUY	111	27¢	$30	0xa9ad52…
03-30 23:44:37	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x77e3d3…
03-29 19:31:24	highest temperature in nyc on march 29 2026 52 53f	Yes	SELL	70	48¢	$34	0xb89603…
03-29 03:01:12	highest temperature in nyc on march 28 2026 42 43f	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x053727…
03-28 15:47:09	highest temperature in nyc on march 29 2026 52 53f	Yes	BUY	70	36¢	$25	0xcd547d…
03-28 15:29:29	highest temperature in nyc on march 28 2026 42 43f	Yes	SELL	18	56¢	$10	0x54a750…
03-28 15:28:27	highest temperature in nyc on march 28 2026 44 45f	Yes	SELL	24	39¢	$9	0x63a9b8…
03-28 04:22:33	highest temperature in nyc on march 28 2026 44 45f	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x3a72a8…
03-28 04:21:29	highest temperature in nyc on march 28 2026 42 43f	Yes	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xe5ec3f…
03-28 04:17:01	highest temperature in nyc on march 28 2026 42 43f	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x216b26…
03-20 10:02:25	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	516	4¢	$20	0x8ca2bb…
03-19 10:02:55	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	177	11¢	$20	0x183117…
03-10 01:18:51	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0xeadea4…
02-28 20:37:47	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xf50aef…
01-17 18:22:02	bitcoin above 96k on january 18	Yes	BUY	30	28¢	$8	0xd61e90…
01-17 11:02:12	epl mun mac 2026 01 17 mac	Yes	BUY	82	49¢	$40	0x907476…