Pesky-Musicbox — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.29K

Unrealized P&L

-$177

Hit rate

73.9%

Resolved

548

Trades

1,507

lifetime

Volume

$74.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$49

Open exposure

$343

12 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 11-13 02:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 161 days

Categories

Politics

50% 66% +$1,849

Other

46% 48% +$564

Sports

3% 31% +$17

Tech

1% 33% -$140

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$28

Crypto

0% 20% -$23

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+121	$55	64¢	$77	+$22	11-03 18:16
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of November?	Yes	+100	$55	67¢	$67	+$12	11-12 01:14
Will Colette Kress be the next CEO of NVIDIA?	Yes	+350	$52	14¢	$50	-$2	11-13 02:57
Tom Holland as Spider-Man?	Yes	+110	$59	36¢	$40	-$20	08-16 10:41
Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026?	Yes	+430	$122	8¢	$37	-$86	08-28 18:36
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+6,250	$50	0¢	$22	-$28	06-18 16:51
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+1,190	$25	2¢	$20	-$5	05-28 00:36
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+1,100	$9	1¢	$12	+$3	06-23 11:59
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	-30	-$4	26¢	$-8	-$4	10-15 13:40
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	+150	$34	4¢	$6	-$28	09-21 18:21
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+289	$19	2¢	$5	-$14	09-04 19:00
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+120	$28	0¢	$1	-$27	08-26 17:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	14	$2.4K	1,395	1,395	+0	Yes	+$219	10-26 12:55
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	18	$2.3K	1,486	1,486	+0	open	—	11-04 15:56
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	13	$2.1K	1,201	1,201	+0	No	+$283	06-13 02:15
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	23	$2.1K	2,381	2,381	+0	Yes	-$129	10-29 23:12
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	9	$2.0K	1,136	1,136	+0	Yes	+$97	11-04 00:29
will jessie buckley win best actress at the 98th academy awards	27	$1.8K	1,268	690	+578	Yes	+$65	03-15 18:26
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	5	$1.6K	847	847	+0	No	+$29	02-27 17:11
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	4	$1.4K	871	871	+0	Yes	-$1	04-07 17:23
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	8	$1.4K	799	799	+0	Yes	+$234	05-01 12:14
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	6	$1.3K	700	700	+0	No	+$50	11-04 00:59
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	6	$1.3K	711	711	+0	No	+$73	04-01 22:09
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	5	$1.3K	675	675	+0	No	+$91	05-15 12:15
nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	7	$1.1K	670	670	+0	No	+$135	08-20 23:32
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	13	$1.1K	904	904	+0	Yes	+$57	02-28 17:49
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	6	$1.1K	827	1,127	-300	Yes	-$34	06-21 01:34
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	9	$1.0K	819	819	+0	Yes	+$182	11-04 01:59
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	22	$952	890	890	+0	Yes	+$2	01-31 21:08
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	5	$916	576	576	+0	No	+$16	04-07 17:23
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	6	$879	565	565	+0	Yes	+$231	01-30 21:42
will james talarico be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	4	$875	470	470	+0	Yes	+$37	03-04 01:33
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	6	$870	530	530	+0	Yes	+$82	11-04 01:52
khamenei public appearance by friday	8	$812	451	451	+0	No	+$42	01-16 13:56
iran leadership change by march 31	6	$779	580	302	+278	No	+$99	03-31 23:32
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	4	$741	0	750	-750	Yes	-$9	05-19 18:03
Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?	7	$715	503	503	+0	No	-$56	08-05 10:45
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	5	$711	418	418	+0	Yes	+$102	07-03 18:40
starmer out by june 22 2026	6	$707	491	491	+0	Yes	+$137	06-22 10:31
dota2 flc ts8 2026 02 05	4	$703	1,264	1,242	+22	Team Falcons	-$107	02-05 13:10
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	5	$700	597	527	+70	No	-$161	05-18 13:24
iran strike on israel by january 31	4	$684	724	0	+724	No	+$40	01-30 21:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-13 02:57:36	Will Colette Kress be the next CEO of NVIDIA?	Yes	BUY	140	15¢	$21	0xfc1f93…
11-13 00:19:39	Will Colette Kress be the next CEO of NVIDIA?	Yes	BUY	210	15¢	$32	0xe8d18e…
11-12 15:22:24	Will OpenAI IPO by March 31 2027?	No	SELL	160	78¢	$125	0x6b14f1…
11-12 01:14:58	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of November?	Yes	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0x9e17da…
11-07 23:42:49	Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Manchester United FC O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	65	54¢	$35	0x95dca3…
11-06 23:21:04	Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	65	39¢	$26	0x27c55b…
11-04 21:32:24	Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	60	61¢	$36	0x7f3352…
11-04 21:32:16	Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xbc73b9…
11-04 18:25:54	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-11-04?	Yes	BUY	25	57¢	$14	0x4d38b4…
11-04 16:15:01	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	30	95¢	$28	0x0ba92d…
11-04 15:56:22	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	305	96¢	$295	0xf07735…
11-04 15:53:27	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x882bb9…
11-04 12:16:25	Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Yes	SELL	66	93¢	$61	0x469f15…
11-04 03:11:07	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	325	82¢	$267	0x93eae7…
11-04 02:58:18	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	90¢	$135	0xf92741…
11-04 02:51:10	Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	95¢	$190	0xf82ac3…
11-04 02:16:15	Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	SELL	89	93¢	$82	0x46864f…
11-04 01:59:07	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	269	96¢	$258	0x52503b…
11-04 01:58:06	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	96¢	$193	0x001427…
11-04 01:57:30	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	128	96¢	$123	0x9cf800…
11-04 01:52:55	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	128	96¢	$123	0xdd22ce…
11-04 01:51:18	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	227	96¢	$218	0x47a37b…
11-04 01:36:18	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	97¢	$195	0xdad8d2…
11-04 01:28:04	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	96¢	$38	0x4c3314…
11-04 01:09:43	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	76¢	$36	0xe16a34…
11-04 01:09:43	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0xc201b4…
11-04 01:09:43	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	76¢	$40	0x19c399…
11-04 01:09:43	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	76¢	$37	0x051d75…
11-04 00:59:57	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	SELL	525	99¢	$521	0xbb0859…
11-04 00:49:33	Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	119	5¢	$6	0x12aa71…
11-04 00:34:07	Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	213	8¢	$17	0x2f593b…
11-04 00:29:28	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	460	98¢	$452	0x328f2e…
11-04 00:08:15	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	74¢	$60	0xaa1449…
11-04 00:01:39	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	271	53¢	$144	0x06bb29…
11-03 21:53:55	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-03?	Yes	SELL	128	96¢	$123	0xcd6c29…
11-03 19:26:46	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-03?	Yes	BUY	74	47¢	$35	0x377000…
11-03 19:26:15	Manchester United FC to score first vs. AS Roma?	Yes	BUY	56	54¢	$30	0xc9aa05…
11-03 19:25:33	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	108	70¢	$76	0x48cd24…
11-03 19:24:57	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-03?	Yes	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0x0c3ade…
11-03 18:22:12	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x413bf3…
11-03 18:16:42	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xc7a0b7…
11-03 18:16:01	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0xbd4a0c…
11-03 18:14:58	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	87	63¢	$55	0xda9107…
11-02 23:23:52	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	111	45¢	$50	0x034bfa…
11-02 23:23:24	Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Yes	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0x77bb96…
11-02 23:22:49	Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and Israel and Hamas agree to ceasefire Phase II by the end of 2027?	Yes	BUY	312	16¢	$50	0x76ac01…
11-02 20:18:25	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	270	95¢	$257	0x98a5ca…
10-30 13:12:30	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	271	63¢	$170	0x5e9b5c…
10-30 13:12:10	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	336	52¢	$174	0xbd923f…
10-30 12:54:33	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0xaee4c3…
10-30 12:54:13	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	53¢	$58	0xaa12b8…
10-30 12:53:58	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0x075172…
10-30 12:53:48	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	151	70¢	$106	0x4040e1…
10-30 12:52:22	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	211	71¢	$150	0xb1f664…
10-30 12:51:52	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	175	77¢	$135	0xf03302…
10-30 12:51:42	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	71¢	$178	0x5774f2…
10-30 12:49:30	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	345	32¢	$110	0x122be7…
10-30 12:48:57	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	69¢	$103	0x4583f9…
10-30 12:47:24	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	52¢	$156	0x5997ef…
10-30 12:46:39	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	52¢	$156	0x960c35…
10-30 12:45:24	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0x310bda…
10-30 12:41:57	Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	BUY	70	89¢	$62	0x63214c…
10-30 12:41:46	Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	BUY	18	88¢	$16	0xfd0351…
10-29 23:13:19	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0x6899f6…
10-29 23:12:48	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	155	70¢	$108	0xb3b61a…
10-29 23:12:21	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	430	39¢	$166	0x77436b…
10-27 13:50:47	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0xec10cb…
10-27 13:49:12	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0xc93193…
10-26 20:13:32	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	94	76¢	$71	0x018c05…
10-26 20:11:33	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	193	55¢	$105	0xb4db1d…
10-26 17:33:36	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	110	72¢	$79	0x92b97e…
10-26 17:33:12	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	113	74¢	$84	0x1b37a1…
10-26 16:57:20	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	170	66¢	$113	0x1a75a6…
10-26 16:56:53	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	59	66¢	$39	0x3ae995…
10-26 16:56:30	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	267	56¢	$149	0xc0ec27…
10-26 16:55:50	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	230	66¢	$153	0x70148a…
10-26 16:55:23	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	281	56¢	$157	0x2d3a07…
10-26 13:08:02	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	400	54¢	$217	0x927ce9…
10-26 13:07:45	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	127	54¢	$69	0xf48018…
10-26 13:07:08	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	161	74¢	$119	0x696cd5…
10-26 13:07:02	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	171	91¢	$156	0x0ebb4c…
10-26 12:57:57	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	75¢	$56	0x404230…
10-26 12:55:56	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x425fe1…
10-26 12:55:41	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	SELL	138	96¢	$133	0x347e91…
10-26 12:55:18	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x0264cc…
10-26 12:53:50	France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x1d1973…
10-25 22:51:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	100	67¢	$67	0xffcc79…
10-23 13:19:33	France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0x121263…
10-22 17:02:59	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0x0656a8…
10-22 17:02:23	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	25	52¢	$13	0x461775…
10-15 13:40:10	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	180	14¢	$25	0x29f1cd…
10-01 12:50:48	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x100415…
09-29 23:17:24	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	110	42¢	$47	0x5104f6…
09-26 20:41:11	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	250	58¢	$144	0xf88686…
09-26 20:39:50	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	148	72¢	$107	0x28bc9f…
09-26 20:39:44	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	SELL	175	92¢	$161	0x90a019…
09-26 20:38:15	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	225	58¢	$130	0x47fad0…
09-26 20:37:20	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	SELL	144	95¢	$136	0x7031a7…
09-26 20:37:08	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0xf921ce…
09-25 13:03:30	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x1d3156…