Knobby-Cookbook — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$574

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

74.7%

Resolved

1,183

Trades

1,947

lifetime

Volume

$37.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-15

last 10-26 15:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 178 days

Categories

Other

50% 63% -$607

Sports

35% 61% +$166

Politics

8% 58% +$67

Crypto

6% 71% -$208

Tech

1% 33% +$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 57 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1	2	$568	338	338	+0	GamerLegion	+$108	06-02 14:25
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals	4	$551	330	330	+0	Texas Rangers	+$34	06-02 02:30
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels	2	$471	256	256	+0	Colorado Rockies	+$41	06-02 05:05
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners	2	$372	216	216	+0	Seattle Mariners	+$60	06-02 04:21
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	4	$369	259	259	+0	Yes	+$69	05-30 19:00
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	5	$339	253	253	+0	Yes	+$6	06-01 23:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	7	$327	222	222	+0	No	+$59	05-31 11:05
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?	3	$300	288	160	+128	Yes	+$28	06-07 04:57
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds	4	$290	208	208	+0	Kansas City Royals	-$2	06-02 01:12
Spurs vs. Thunder	3	$269	339	172	+167	Spurs	+$36	05-31 00:25
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	3	$263	182	182	+0	Knicks	+$98	05-24 02:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	5	$258	140	140	+0	No	+$22	05-01 05:47
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds	3	$245	436	0	+436	Cincinnati Reds	-$245	05-31 10:44
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays	4	$239	242	242	+0	Tampa Bay Rays	-$21	05-31 18:46
Knicks vs. Spurs	5	$234	285	129	+156	Knicks	-$101	06-03 13:24
Thunder vs. Lakers	2	$230	130	130	+0	Thunder	+$30	05-10 03:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	3	$224	133	133	+0	No	+$24	05-14 04:04
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	2	$214	123	123	+0	Yes	+$14	05-19 12:33
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1	1	$200	364	0	+364	Liquid	-$200	06-02 14:26
nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	2	$200	364	0	+364	Spurs	-$200	06-07 23:51
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?	3	$200	121	121	+0	Yes	+$43	05-27 22:54
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	3	$199	144	144	+0	Yes	+$9	05-25 02:52
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	3	$185	159	159	+0	No	-$15	05-23 02:36
Knicks vs. 76ers	6	$179	174	174	+0	Knicks	-$16	05-09 01:47
New York Yankees vs. Athletics	3	$171	268	268	+0	Athletics	-$145	05-31 04:08
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	2	$162	102	102	+0	Pittsburgh Pirates	+$42	06-01 06:19
clf jej bmu 2026 08 04 total 2pt5	2	$153	82	82	+0	Over	+$11	08-04 12:07
pol leg zag 2026 08 02 total 4pt5	2	$152	79	79	+0	Under	+$6	08-02 15:05
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds	1	$150	268	0	+268	Atlanta Braves	+$118	05-30 05:13
clf avl pau 2026 08 04 total 5pt5	2	$148	79	79	+0	Under	+$8	08-04 15:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 15:56:57	Spread: Thunder (-12.5)	Suns	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0x5635ac…
10-26 15:50:32	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x5b1b37…
10-26 08:07:42	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	81¢	$15	0x72d143…
10-26 03:32:54	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	53¢	$15	0x6fedd5…
10-25 23:01:24	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	40¢	$11	0x810503…
10-25 10:55:59	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	28	61¢	$17	0xf71bb8…
10-25 10:54:02	Tokyo Sunrockers vs. Diamond Dolphins	Diamond Dolphins	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x51cfc2…
10-25 05:23:59	Tokyo Sunrockers vs. Diamond Dolphins	Diamond Dolphins	BUY	17	66¢	$11	0xf99c35…
10-25 02:34:18	Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 225.5	Under	BUY	27	70¢	$19	0x32e507…
10-25 02:33:17	Spurs vs. Mavericks: O/U 242.5	Under	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xbdbd06…
10-25 02:09:03	Spurs vs. Mavericks: O/U 242.5	Under	BUY	19	86¢	$16	0x7dd273…
10-25 02:07:42	Spread: 76ers (-15.5)	Bucks	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x548c4e…
10-24 16:53:14	Spread: 76ers (-15.5)	Bucks	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x418a33…
10-24 04:43:50	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	85¢	$25	0x015d09…
10-24 04:42:50	Trail Blazers vs. Kings	Trail Blazers	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x40acbf…
10-24 01:44:45	Trail Blazers vs. Kings	Trail Blazers	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x003fe1…
10-24 01:42:41	Timberwolves vs. Magic	Timberwolves	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xb572c3…
10-23 16:03:27	Timberwolves vs. Magic	Timberwolves	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x3a7127…
10-23 16:02:06	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x7af34b…
10-23 04:26:59	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0xa5b8d9…
10-23 04:25:36	Nuggets vs. Thunder	Thunder	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x7ca9ec…
10-23 02:10:56	Nuggets vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xe69cb9…
10-23 02:09:50	Patriots vs. Bears: O/U 56.5	Under	SELL	15	23¢	$3	0xb01d2d…
10-22 13:13:48	Patriots vs. Bears: O/U 56.5	Under	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xa72dd6…
10-22 06:19:38	Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-10-22?	Yes	BUY	11	50¢	$6	0x82cc31…
10-22 02:01:15	Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5	Under	BUY	16	56¢	$9	0x225f9e…
10-22 01:54:00	Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 229.5	Over	SELL	14	63¢	$9	0xca61da…
10-21 16:10:50	Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 229.5	Over	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0xa0dd25…
10-21 02:41:48	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	65¢	$10	0x12492c…
10-21 00:30:35	76ers vs. Knicks	Knicks	BUY	28	70¢	$20	0xf4cf28…
10-21 00:30:12	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x4bcbf2…
10-20 10:39:02	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x879f0d…
10-20 08:29:13	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	67¢	$17	0x5ba037…
10-20 02:13:21	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	39¢	$10	0xe530d7…
10-19 11:52:48	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x4c1b5d…
10-19 00:04:02	Hurricanes vs. Flames	Hurricanes	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0x5cd532…
10-19 00:02:36	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians	Tampa Bay Rays	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x8e3204…
10-18 23:02:20	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	4	84¢	$4	0x46f48d…
10-18 15:16:36	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0x487be7…
10-18 09:23:24	Basquet Girona vs. Basquet Coruna	Basquet Girona	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x9bf80f…
10-18 09:22:09	Anyang vs. KCC Egis	KCC Egis	SELL	22	10¢	$2	0x16c6a4…
10-18 08:25:24	Anyang vs. KCC Egis	KCC Egis	BUY	22	63¢	$14	0x50dc3a…
10-18 07:45:12	Toyama Grouses vs. SeaHorses Mikawa	SeaHorses Mikawa	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xd804f2…
10-18 05:22:36	Toyama Grouses vs. SeaHorses Mikawa	SeaHorses Mikawa	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x99af7c…
10-18 02:25:20	Houston Dynamo vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	19	96¢	$18	0x6b7361…
10-18 00:15:02	New England Revolution vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	18	93¢	$17	0xe42dd8…
10-17 08:03:05	Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries	Golden State Valkyries	BUY	17	57¢	$10	0xca434a…
10-17 08:02:26	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	45¢	$10	0xcef5f8…
10-17 00:26:41	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	69¢	$15	0xa2d99c…
10-16 15:54:03	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x310714…
10-16 07:01:36	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	64¢	$10	0x80f7de…
10-15 12:17:37	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	32¢	$10	0x1b5204…
10-15 02:45:04	nba den lac 2026 10 14	Nuggets	BUY	46	70¢	$32	0xba4536…
10-15 02:43:17	nba phx sas 2026 10 14 total 235pt5	Under	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x8da407…
10-14 15:07:09	nba phx sas 2026 10 14 total 235pt5	Under	BUY	33	78¢	$26	0xa81c1d…
10-14 14:37:58	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x42616c…
10-14 04:19:11	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	74¢	$19	0x3878a4…
10-14 03:45:23	Warriors vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	42	72¢	$30	0xb6eda9…
10-14 00:52:12	Pacers vs. Thunder	Pacers	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0x81b565…
10-13 15:46:57	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	100¢	$70	0x7f525f…
10-13 04:25:26	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	74¢	$52	0x7571e1…
10-13 01:53:27	Spurs vs. Jazz	Jazz	BUY	14	76¢	$11	0x94e737…
10-12 01:42:41	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x3c0237…
10-12 01:07:44	Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5	Under	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x954d8c…
10-12 00:47:14	Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5	Under	BUY	19	79¢	$15	0x111120…
10-11 16:15:12	Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña: O/U 6.5	Under	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0x444e21…
10-11 15:50:09	Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña: O/U 6.5	Under	BUY	41	85¢	$35	0x5c5bbf…
10-11 12:24:03	Mavericks vs. Rockets	Mavericks	BUY	18	86¢	$16	0xfe6ea8…
10-11 12:20:52	Como 1907 vs. AS Roma: O/U 5.5	Under	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x31d937…
10-11 10:54:38	Como 1907 vs. AS Roma: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	33	95¢	$31	0xfe0689…
10-11 08:40:40	Ibaraki Robots vs. Diamond Dolphins	Diamond Dolphins	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0xa99256…
10-11 05:14:14	Ibaraki Robots vs. Diamond Dolphins	Diamond Dolphins	BUY	31	77¢	$24	0xeb0960…
10-11 05:02:24	Spurs vs. Suns	Suns	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x28bc4e…
10-11 04:37:56	Spurs vs. Suns	Suns	BUY	24	81¢	$20	0x34c728…
10-11 04:37:12	Los Angeles FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 4.5	Under	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x0f3fa3…
10-11 03:45:33	Los Angeles FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x2a8643…
10-11 03:41:53	Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5	Under	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x2896b6…
10-11 03:15:09	Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	18	82¢	$15	0x4a2185…
10-11 03:13:05	Kings vs. Warriors	Warriors	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x74b2ac…
10-10 18:53:51	Kings vs. Warriors	Warriors	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x801d58…
10-10 12:53:07	FC Barcelona vs. Getafe CF: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	12	57¢	$7	0x6297f6…
10-10 12:52:10	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	SELL	15	48¢	$7	0x3f52ed…
10-10 11:30:49	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0xe80d5f…
10-10 09:28:07	Sumsel United vs. Persiku Kudus: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x19822a…
10-10 09:27:37	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xd6dc4b…
10-10 08:42:00	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x2dc9ce…
10-10 02:50:05	Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	18	95¢	$17	0x45e2eb…
10-10 02:39:53	Grizzlies vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5	Under	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x4fbcb7…
10-10 02:25:32	Grizzlies vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5	Under	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0xd98df2…
10-10 02:00:27	Grizzlies vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5	Over	SELL	29	15¢	$4	0xb6977b…
10-10 01:58:53	Grizzlies vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5	Over	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x8c13f5…
10-09 15:52:39	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x9e2cb7…
10-09 07:14:39	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	70¢	$12	0x446c9e…
10-09 06:26:22	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Adrian Mannarino vs Flavio Cobolli	Flavio Cobolli	BUY	7	49¢	$4	0xd3fedb…
10-09 06:25:58	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	67¢	$4	0x8f81a9…
10-09 04:48:48	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xfe7277…
10-09 04:47:01	Kings vs. Lakers	Kings	SELL	42	8¢	$3	0xce5d93…
10-09 02:20:59	Kings vs. Lakers	Kings	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xef4aa5…
10-08 16:18:44	Wizards vs. Knicks	Knicks	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x1f85c2…
10-08 13:08:29	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 8?	Yes	BUY	11	73¢	$8	0x60dc70…