Capital-Speaking — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$29

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

64.7%

Resolved

Trades

256

lifetime

Volume

$2.34K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$29

1 position

First seen

2026-04-21

last 07-14 21:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

42% — —

Crypto

21% 46% $-28

Politics

15% 0% $-1

Sports

13% — —

Pop-Culture

8% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 81 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes		-344	$-28	8¢	$-29	$-2	06-10 19:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026?	2	$168	681	681	+0	open	—	04-22 04:53
will the virginia redistricting referendum pass	1	$136	849	0	+849	open	—	04-21 16:19
fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	2	$124	89	89	+0	open	—	07-14 21:14
fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	3	$82	122	29	+93	open	—	07-14 21:25
nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	1	$80	145	0	+145	open	—	06-07 16:48
cs2 aur1 bb3 2026 06 18	1	$75	167	0	+167	open	—	06-18 08:34
will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 22 2026	3	$53	127	21	+105	open	—	04-22 04:54
will starmer say trump during the next prime ministers questions event 626 685	1	$50	125	0	+125	open	—	04-22 10:43
will starmer say mr speaker 20 times during the next prime ministers questions event 695	1	$50	264	0	+264	open	—	04-22 10:39
nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	1	$50	93	0	+93	open	—	06-10 19:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	2	$50	79	0	+79	open	—	05-04 08:33
will starmer say ukraine during the next prime ministers questions event 699	1	$50	81	0	+81	open	—	04-22 10:43
nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	1	$43	120	0	+120	open	—	06-11 08:04
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	2	$40	69	69	+0	open	—	07-07 17:48
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs	1	$40	74	0	+74	open	—	05-17 16:50
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	1	$35	76	0	+76	open	—	05-18 15:52
cs2 mglz bb3 2026 06 11	1	$35	71	0	+71	open	—	06-11 05:39
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	1	$35	65	0	+65	open	—	05-25 20:14
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	1	$33	72	0	+72	open	—	05-26 17:34
dota2 aur1 ty 2026 06 04 game1	1	$32	68	0	+68	open	—	06-04 07:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	2	$32	389	389	+0	open	—	05-04 15:14
Thunder vs. Spurs	1	$30	73	0	+73	open	—	05-28 15:24
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox	1	$30	71	0	+71	open	—	05-28 15:21
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	1	$30	59	0	+59	open	—	05-27 11:50
Will Trump say "Smart" or "Genius" during Coast Guard event?	1	$30	46	0	+46	open	—	05-20 05:26
fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team to advance	1	$28	103	0	+103	open	—	06-29 16:02
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	1	$28	0	344	-344	open	—	06-10 19:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	5	$26	26	26	+0	Down	+$4	05-05 16:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	4	$25	33	33	+0	Down	+$5	05-05 14:13
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli	1	$25	49	0	+49	open	—	06-03 14:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-14 21:25:11	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	England	BUY	93	54¢	$50	0xe1e9ef…
07-14 21:14:23	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	Spain	SELL	89	100¢	$88	0x9251e1…
07-14 05:38:35	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	England	SELL	29	55¢	$16	0x07dcb9…
07-13 07:48:05	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	England	BUY	29	55¢	$16	0x9fd61a…
07-13 07:46:56	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	Spain	BUY	89	41¢	$36	0xaa2f7d…
07-10 15:48:43	atp sinner djokovi 2026 07 08	Novak Djokovic	BUY	75	20¢	$15	0x94605e…
07-08 05:19:55	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	Morocco	BUY	68	22¢	$15	0xbbe195…
07-07 17:48:50	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Egypt	SELL	69	22¢	$15	0x9ca5c3…
07-07 16:47:40	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Egypt	BUY	69	36¢	$25	0xa4c32b…
07-02 05:22:16	fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 team to advance	Algeria	BUY	43	35¢	$15	0x90089c…
07-02 05:21:34	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team to advance	Cabo Verde	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x47a94a…
07-02 05:19:59	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 team to advance	Austria	BUY	113	13¢	$15	0x3daba6…
06-29 16:02:04	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team to advance	Japan	BUY	103	27¢	$28	0xf829e0…
06-24 17:18:58	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	Yes	SELL	186	0¢	$0	0xb6a653…
06-21 16:14:41	cs2 furia fal2 2026 06 21 game2	FURIA	BUY	83	24¢	$20	0x25e490…
06-18 08:34:29	cs2 aur1 bb3 2026 06 18	BetBoom Team	BUY	167	45¢	$75	0x12b847…
06-13 05:59:48	cs2 aur1 g2 2026 06 13	Aurora Gaming	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0xf1bf50…
06-12 09:52:43	cs2 prv mnte 2026 06 12	PARIVISION	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0x804bf8…
06-11 08:04:07	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Knicks	BUY	120	36¢	$43	0xa497f9…
06-11 05:39:39	cs2 prv 9z 2026 06 11	PARIVISION	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0x892458…
06-11 05:39:06	cs2 mglz bb3 2026 06 11	BetBoom Team	BUY	71	49¢	$35	0xad6368…
06-10 19:26:15	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Knicks	BUY	93	54¢	$50	0x952b78…
06-10 19:20:42	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	344	8¢	$28	0xfe42ef…
06-09 15:04:03	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	67	24¢	$16	0xab18a4…
06-08 16:13:00	nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	No	BUY	220	4¢	$9	0xc60a03…
06-07 16:48:37	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	Knicks	BUY	145	55¢	$80	0xabfc61…
06-07 16:34:58	btc updown 5m 1780849800	Up	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x58eda8…
06-07 16:32:51	btc updown 5m 1780849800	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x75765d…
06-07 16:32:49	btc updown 5m 1780849800	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xf9d89d…
06-07 16:32:49	btc updown 5m 1780849800	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x84dda1…
06-07 16:32:48	btc updown 5m 1780849800	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x81f4cb…
06-07 16:32:48	btc updown 5m 1780849800	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x815ba5…
06-07 16:32:48	btc updown 5m 1780849800	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x5aadbb…
06-07 16:32:46	btc updown 5m 1780849800	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x65f634…
06-07 16:32:46	btc updown 5m 1780849800	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x0ce152…
06-04 07:58:04	dota2 aur1 ty 2026 06 04 game1	Aurora	BUY	68	47¢	$32	0x99f89f…
06-03 14:54:34	Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli	Felix Auger-Aliassime	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x649d10…
05-29 16:02:42	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	LGD Gaming	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xac3d8f…
05-28 15:52:21	Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima	Luca Van Assche	BUY	13	31¢	$4	0x25def4…
05-28 15:48:25	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	Yes	SELL	132	3¢	$4	0x592065…
05-28 15:48:09	Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	PARIVISION	BUY	32	60¢	$19	0xe3b149…
05-28 15:24:11	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	73	41¢	$30	0x21a110…
05-28 15:21:45	Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox	Minnesota Twins	BUY	71	42¢	$30	0xc0cdf8…
05-27 11:50:59	Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	Team Falcons	BUY	59	51¢	$30	0x792a6d…
05-26 17:43:19	Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?	No	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x85bbaa…
05-26 17:38:37	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	Yes	BUY	132	4¢	$5	0x05642a…
05-26 17:34:51	Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	BetBoom Team	BUY	72	46¢	$33	0x47cc9e…
05-25 20:14:02	Knicks vs. Cavaliers	Knicks	BUY	65	54¢	$35	0x67c794…
05-24 20:38:41	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	Yes	BUY	67	9¢	$6	0x83d64b…
05-24 08:26:47	Will Bernie say "Trumpism" in Maine?	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x2c0a60…
05-24 08:26:24	Will Bernie say "Restructure" in Maine?	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x822df2…
05-24 08:26:15	Will Bernie say "Revolution" or "Revolutionary" in Maine?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x64bee6…
05-24 08:26:03	Will Bernie say "ICE" 5+ times in Maine?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x374893…
05-24 08:19:07	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	No	BUY	392	3¢	$13	0xcdef0e…
05-23 19:20:30	Knicks vs. Cavaliers	Knicks	BUY	38	45¢	$17	0xa0364f…
05-20 05:26:56	Will Trump say "Fighter" during Coast Guard event?	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x8d3ad7…
05-20 05:26:44	Will Trump say "Winner" or "Loser" during Coast Guard event?	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x1ee041…
05-20 05:26:31	Will Trump say "Smart" or "Genius" during Coast Guard event?	Yes	BUY	46	65¢	$30	0xacc2b0…
05-20 05:25:48	Will Trump say "Space Force" during Coast Guard event?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xd2dfbd…
05-20 05:25:27	Will Trump say "Stock Market" during Coast Guard event?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x9b3146…
05-20 05:25:16	Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Coast Guard event?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0xf4b705…
05-20 05:23:59	Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during Coast Guard event?	Yes	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xf82063…
05-20 05:12:30	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 23, 2026?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xde07bf…
05-20 05:12:26	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xe32d54…
05-20 05:12:16	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026?	No	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x9b6cf8…
05-20 05:12:10	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 20, 2026?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x01fffd…
05-18 15:52:40	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	76	46¢	$35	0x11515b…
05-17 16:50:45	Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs	Team Vitality	BUY	74	54¢	$40	0xd65979…
05-06 13:35:32	Will Trump or Melania say "Venezuela" at the Military Mothers event?	No	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xac802d…
05-06 13:21:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0x59f421…
05-06 13:20:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xa1b4e1…
05-06 13:20:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xb8f3e6…
05-06 13:18:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xf8b8c2…
05-06 12:56:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x64eafd…
05-06 12:56:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xbc177c…
05-06 12:56:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x282e55…
05-06 12:53:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0x52b7be…
05-06 12:52:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xfe6beb…
05-06 12:52:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xebf1ab…
05-06 12:52:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x4b6651…
05-06 12:40:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xa65e51…
05-06 12:40:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x94259f…
05-06 12:40:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x92b940…
05-06 12:34:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x163824…
05-06 12:33:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x338210…
05-06 12:33:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0xb5d39a…
05-06 12:31:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x3dfb21…
05-06 12:30:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xd42156…
05-06 12:26:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x16f9f3…
05-06 12:26:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xa7d1bc…
05-06 12:26:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xab04bb…
05-06 12:26:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x12cfa3…
05-06 12:25:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x806ad3…
05-06 12:21:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x8d919c…
05-06 12:21:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x3f822d…
05-06 12:10:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x75e369…
05-06 12:10:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x6a1df6…
05-06 12:09:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	SELL	2	74¢	$1	0x6f7332…
05-06 12:09:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x75d1ae…
05-06 10:44:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	SELL	2	33¢	$1	0x8b9a38…