Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$345

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

11.3%

Resolved

Trades

1,128

lifetime

Volume

$9.24K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$115

14 positions

First seen

2026-09-06

last 10-28 07:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 28 days

Categories

Other

72% 15% -$262

Politics

14% 0% -$41

Tech

11% 20% -$24

Crypto

2% 0% -$8

Pop-Culture

1% 33% -$5

Sports

0% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

39 active days in 12wk • peak 138 trades/day

Open positions (14) Resolved markets (18) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?	No	+50	$30	70¢	$35	+$5	10-23 02:25
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+40	$23	68¢	$27	+$4	10-24 22:49
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+20	$15	99¢	$20	+$4	10-11 01:32
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?	Yes	+50	$18	30¢	$15	-$2	10-22 17:31
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	+40	$16	32¢	$13	-$3	10-27 09:38
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	No	+2	$1	90¢	$2	+$1	10-01 19:49
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	+2	$5	82¢	$1	-$3	10-07 22:11
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?	Yes	+3	$2	54¢	$1	-$1	10-23 15:34
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	+2	$1	18¢	$0	-$1	10-07 21:46
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+20	$5	1¢	$0	-$4	10-11 06:55
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$1	93¢	$0	$0	10-13 21:13
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+1	$5	10¢	$0	-$5	09-30 13:04
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?	No	+0	$1	9¢	$0	-$1	10-18 14:03
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	+0	$0	7¢	$0	$0	10-13 10:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	60	$550	532	532	+0	Yes	-$3	09-29 10:51
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	8	$407	400	400	+0	open	—	09-27 19:40
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during their summit?	35	$201	214	214	+0	No	-$5	09-24 14:56
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during their summit?	25	$196	200	200	+0	No	-$2	09-25 11:38
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	15	$186	208	205	+3	open	—	10-01 19:49
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on September 30, 2026?	13	$181	198	198	-0	Yes	-$15	09-25 20:18
will the life of a showgirl the encore first week sales be at least 150k	7	$177	201	201	+0	Yes	-$31	09-28 23:37
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	7	$168	190	110	+81	open	—	10-27 09:38
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?	7	$167	150	150	+0	open	—	10-22 05:45
Will Seattle have between 2 and 2.5 inches of precipitation in September?	11	$126	131	131	+0	No	-$8	09-28 16:46
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	5	$121	70	70	+0	open	—	10-26 23:44
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	29	$106	150	150	+0	No	+$1	09-27 21:21
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?	16	$106	948	948	+0	No	-$21	09-25 18:49
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	7	$103	100	100	+0	open	—	09-28 20:17
will russia capture orikhiv by june 30 2027	15	$103	118	118	+0	open	—	10-12 21:13
will sicko mode be on gta vi radio at launch	4	$100	70	70	+0	open	—	09-28 08:56
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	3	$98	68	68	+0	No	-$3	09-25 02:46
will patient zero hit 35m first week streams	5	$98	100	100	+0	Yes	+$0	09-28 20:52
Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	11	$96	100	100	+0	Yes	-$15	09-26 09:16
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	4	$94	90	50	+40	open	—	10-28 04:46
next astra model 6pt1 released by october 23 2026	15	$92	120	118	+2	No	-$6	09-29 16:56
Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	15	$91	95	92	+3	open	—	09-28 21:06
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	7	$91	80	80	+0	open	—	09-24 13:12
openai resumes training by october 5 2026	8	$81	80	80	+0	No	-$5	09-28 13:13
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?	7	$79	80	80	+0	open	—	09-26 14:40
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Blaze?	2	$77	50	50	+0	No	-$8	09-26 00:45
will the next sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026	2	$76	50	50	+0	No	-$6	09-27 22:28
Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song this week?	6	$76	72	72	+0	Yes	+$4	09-28 06:01
will patient zero hit 60m first week streams	2	$75	50	50	+0	No	-$1	09-27 13:49
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	2	$74	50	50	+0	Yes	$0	10-25 04:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 09:00:58	Another vessel struck in the Black Sea by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	16	14¢	$2	0x312c20…
10-28 07:36:50	Another vessel struck in the Black Sea by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	21¢	$1	0xe491c0…
10-28 07:36:50	Another vessel struck in the Black Sea by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	21¢	$3	0x38ed74…
10-28 07:25:19	Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0x8586f9…
10-28 07:13:05	Will GTA VI break the 24-hour sales record?	No	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x661545…
10-28 05:33:28	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x5d6294…
10-28 04:46:35	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x9fc500…
10-28 02:29:36	Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x1318a5…
10-28 02:22:51	Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x301739…
10-28 01:44:45	Netanyahu out by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x2cad97…
10-28 01:39:42	Netanyahu out by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x0ecee5…
10-28 01:08:41	US imports Russian diesel by November 15?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x37e975…
10-28 00:00:45	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0x7da707…
10-27 23:34:53	exponential time hypothesis disproof confirmed by june 30 2027	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0xfd2c5f…
10-27 23:34:00	exponential time hypothesis disproof confirmed by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xcf77a6…
10-27 22:59:30	US imports Russian diesel by November 15?	No	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x088aa7…
10-27 22:06:45	Will In-fa become a Violent typhoon?	Yes	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x765ce0…
10-27 22:06:20	Will In-fa become a Violent typhoon?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x5bb95f…
10-27 19:51:45	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x358d06…
10-27 19:50:45	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x13c049…
10-27 18:39:45	Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0x580567…
10-27 18:39:09	Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0xc0ae4a…
10-27 18:39:00	Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	73¢	$0	0x074709…
10-27 18:38:59	Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0x962fb8…
10-27 16:47:45	Netanyahu out by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0x4ec77a…
10-27 16:47:30	Netanyahu out by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x6721f2…
10-27 15:44:45	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0x213fd3…
10-27 15:44:30	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x077688…
10-27 15:15:59	Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?	No	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x9bf63a…
10-27 15:15:41	Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x7b5ad5…
10-27 15:15:41	Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?	No	BUY	0	39¢	$0	0x498087…
10-27 13:18:47	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0xf7b0ac…
10-27 13:18:29	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0xc4581e…
10-27 13:18:29	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x249196…
10-27 11:31:15	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x78322a…
10-27 10:46:00	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MA-08 House election by 45%-50%?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0xbe3fbe…
10-27 09:38:48	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0xd89b0e…
10-27 09:13:08	Will the 2026 League of Legends World Championship peak concurrent viewers be at least 6.25 million?	No	SELL	13	42¢	$6	0x56b9bd…
10-27 09:00:51	Will the 2026 League of Legends World Championship peak concurrent viewers be at least 6.25 million?	No	SELL	0	42¢	$0	0xf0f0cc…
10-27 08:08:30	Will the 2026 League of Legends World Championship peak concurrent viewers be at least 6.25 million?	No	SELL	7	44¢	$3	0xc16311…
10-27 07:59:47	Will the 2026 League of Legends World Championship peak concurrent viewers be at least 6.25 million?	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xfb4bba…
10-27 07:23:32	Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x9d3f70…
10-27 06:58:18	Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x573c99…
10-27 06:58:18	Will "Ebenezer" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	40	47¢	$19	0x0a9cd7…
10-27 06:57:18	Will "Ebenezer" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x574b65…
10-27 06:57:11	Will "Ebenezer" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x69520b…
10-27 06:56:30	Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x8496b9…
10-27 06:35:14	Will "Ebenezer" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0xce0b89…
10-27 06:28:11	Will "Ebenezer" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x7f150a…
10-27 05:32:21	Will GTA VI break the 24-hour sales record?	No	BUY	3	17¢	$1	0x5eddda…
10-27 05:32:14	Will GTA VI break the 24-hour sales record?	No	BUY	17	17¢	$3	0xf1e957…
10-27 02:19:54	Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	74¢	$11	0x48c919…
10-27 02:19:50	Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x776b05…
10-27 02:19:36	Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x557c45…
10-27 01:11:12	Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0xced8b3…
10-27 01:10:15	Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x359e44…
10-26 23:47:56	Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x6199d0…
10-26 23:46:44	Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xca677b…
10-26 23:44:02	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	11	81¢	$9	0x25d006…
10-26 23:43:50	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	9	81¢	$7	0xde0dbe…
10-26 23:43:09	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x211ba8…
10-26 21:04:47	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0xeac576…
10-26 21:04:35	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xcaf9e3…
10-26 20:27:54	Gemini Carbon released by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0xa465ac…
10-26 20:25:35	Gemini Carbon released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x727a51…
10-26 20:25:29	Gemini Carbon released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xed4aa2…
10-26 20:25:26	Gemini Carbon released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x99f239…
10-26 20:12:51	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0xd1a84f…
10-26 18:05:47	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by November 7?	No	SELL	40	9¢	$4	0x0de1d9…
10-26 18:04:53	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by November 7?	No	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x32b04f…
10-26 18:04:50	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by November 7?	No	BUY	15	10¢	$2	0xb51c38…
10-26 18:04:47	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x644e22…
10-26 18:04:45	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by November 7?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xcc1648…
10-26 18:04:14	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xb6beac…
10-26 13:14:18	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x422601…
10-26 11:13:24	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xa83c58…
10-26 07:33:51	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xdae3e8…
10-26 07:28:59	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	62¢	$8	0x5a6713…
10-26 07:28:59	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0x4123a3…
10-26 06:03:32	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0x3d403b…
10-26 06:01:09	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0xf3cae5…
10-26 06:01:09	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0xf3cae5…
10-26 04:40:44	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xfde5de…
10-26 01:47:57	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 7?	No	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x82d0d4…
10-26 01:43:36	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 7?	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x991fa6…
10-26 00:00:59	Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	SELL	16	38¢	$6	0xafe247…
10-26 00:00:59	Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	SELL	34	38¢	$13	0x835766…
10-26 00:00:50	Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x34f47f…
10-25 13:24:03	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0x0663b0…
10-25 09:33:57	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	No	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0x9b7439…
10-25 09:27:59	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	No	SELL	30	70¢	$21	0x40241b…
10-25 09:27:09	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0x803d57…
10-25 06:11:50	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0xc8fe09…
10-25 04:52:57	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	50	87¢	$44	0xf6f584…
10-25 04:52:48	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x8e01ca…
10-25 04:50:57	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	No	SELL	50	74¢	$37	0x971c78…
10-25 04:50:11	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	No	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0xf7c052…
10-24 22:49:57	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	40	56¢	$23	0x30d726…
10-24 17:02:06	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	30¢	$1	0x91b1a5…
10-24 17:02:03	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	8	30¢	$2	0xedc23d…