Skinny-Diving — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$58.6K

Unrealized P&L

+$10.3K

Hit rate

73.2%

Resolved

394

Trades

3,826

lifetime

Volume

$1.11M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$291

Open exposure

$66.9K

20 positions

First seen

2026-02-09

last 10-23 07:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 116 days

Categories

Politics

81% 59% +$42,813

Other

16% 27% +$6,815

Sports

2% 33% +$8,999

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 46 trades/day

Open positions (20) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+21,752	$18,895	94¢	$20.3K	+$1,454	09-30 06:00
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	+16,131	$10,694	94¢	$15.2K	+$4,550	06-13 19:41
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+7,209	$5,378	84¢	$6.1K	+$678	09-17 18:44
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	+9,760	$3,062	59¢	$5.8K	+$2,697	09-18 16:07
will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	No	+5,555	$4,444	94¢	$5.2K	+$750	08-21 16:45
Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+4,356	$4,181	99¢	$4.3K	+$116	09-18 15:01
israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	No	+2,395	$1,694	96¢	$2.3K	+$613	06-26 18:28
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	+3,333	$1,333	47¢	$1.6K	+$233	09-17 18:44
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	+11,111	$2,222	14¢	$1.6K	-$667	07-29 06:32
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	+6,860	$1,481	15¢	$1.0K	-$452	09-15 19:48
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	+2,935	$573	32¢	$932	+$359	09-17 18:44
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+5,622	$1,068	14¢	$759	-$309	09-23 15:39
foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	No	+853	-$1,181	88¢	$755	+$1,936	09-11 04:35
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+9,007	$2,240	6¢	$585	-$1,655	09-08 14:20
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	+2,222	$933	7¢	$156	-$778	07-30 21:18
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+5,555	$272	2¢	$111	-$161	07-24 16:50
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	+942	$188	10¢	$94	-$94	07-09 09:44
Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	+11,287	$677	1¢	$73	-$604	09-01 16:18
nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026	Yes	+2,095	$91	2¢	$42	-$49	10-22 20:30
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+40	-$1,668	16¢	$6	+$1,674	10-23 07:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	53	$62.0K	62,529	62,529	+0	Yes	+$16,346	06-14 22:54
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	79	$49.4K	40,458	14,666	+25,792	No	+$3,136	07-20 13:38
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	63	$46.7K	32,565	32,565	+0	Yes	+$5,441	04-15 11:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	11	$35.3K	39,882	39,882	+0	Yes	+$9,131	06-14 22:56
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	49	$35.1K	22,222	22,222	+0	open	—	08-20 17:19
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	13	$33.5K	36,165	0	+36,165	No	+$2,689	06-16 14:28
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	47	$32.3K	33,200	43,367	-10,166	Yes	-$9,140	03-06 04:00
will iran strike israel on march 10	13	$27.4K	28,879	28,879	+0	Yes	+$14,813	03-12 15:59
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	37	$26.4K	34,194	34,194	+0	Yes	+$5,621	04-12 14:33
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	23	$25.4K	39,829	33,379	+6,450	Yes	+$1,936	03-09 18:30
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	4	$21.6K	13,508	14,538	-1,030	No	+$2,974	03-25 12:50
us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	43	$19.1K	30,639	30,639	+0	open	—	10-14 17:08
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	5	$18.9K	21,752	0	+21,752	open	—	09-30 06:00
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	35	$18.7K	23,993	17,322	+6,671	Yes	-$5,940	09-14 01:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	20	$14.4K	18,072	0	+18,072	No	+$3,703	06-16 18:07
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	39	$14.2K	25,559	25,520	+40	open	—	10-23 07:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	7	$12.1K	33,090	33,090	+0	Yes	-$182	06-14 17:30
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	2	$11.9K	13,510	0	+13,510	Yes	-$11,888	08-01 17:19
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 18 20260716224448964	6	$11.8K	8,966	3,411	+5,555	Yes	+$390	07-18 11:23
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	12	$11.1K	7,442	7,442	+0	No	+$1,861	06-20 00:08
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	12	$10.7K	17,007	0	+17,007	Yes	+$6,291	04-16 17:52
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	4	$10.7K	16,131	0	+16,131	open	—	06-13 19:41
will iran strike israel on march 6	3	$10.7K	6,441	6,441	+0	No	+$1,935	03-10 01:54
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	3	$10.7K	8,888	8,888	+0	Yes	+$533	03-23 21:07
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	8	$10.6K	28,680	21,510	+7,170	Yes	+$10,308	07-14 19:29
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?	1	$10.5K	11,403	0	+11,403	Yes	+$912	04-16 17:53
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	6	$9.5K	10,327	0	+10,327	Yes	+$787	04-16 17:54
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	132	$9.2K	13,453	13,348	+105	No	+$838	03-16 09:55
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	15	$9.2K	5,197	5,197	+0	Yes	+$23	07-19 20:26
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	6	$9.1K	17,297	7,538	+9,760	open	—	09-18 16:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 07:51:08	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	35¢	$1	0x36b30f…
10-23 07:50:32	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	35¢	$5	0xd32b4f…
10-23 07:50:32	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xbc3088…
10-22 20:30:09	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	18¢	$2	0x8de7cb…
10-22 20:28:26	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	993	18¢	$179	0x39b4bf…
10-22 20:28:23	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,090	18¢	$196	0x6e8511…
10-21 12:10:50	Will Likud win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	485	1¢	$5	0xc22f3d…
10-19 16:40:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	4,379	57¢	$2,497	0xeeffc5…
10-18 14:45:53	Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election?	No	BUY	888	22¢	$195	0x35e136…
10-14 20:51:04	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	SELL	487	89¢	$433	0xe22c1d…
10-14 20:51:04	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	SELL	490	89¢	$436	0x9edc85…
10-14 20:50:54	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	SELL	12	89¢	$11	0x75b322…
10-14 20:50:54	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	SELL	121	89¢	$108	0x4dde5c…
10-14 20:41:24	ucl mnc psg 2026 10 14 spread away 2pt5	Paris Saint-Germain FC	BUY	439	16¢	$70	0x9b94c6…
10-14 20:41:22	ucl mnc psg 2026 10 14 spread away 2pt5	Paris Saint-Germain FC	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x216b1c…
10-14 20:41:21	ucl mnc psg 2026 10 14 spread away 2pt5	Paris Saint-Germain FC	BUY	419	16¢	$67	0x877848…
10-14 20:40:40	ucl mnc psg 2026 10 14 spread away 2pt5	Paris Saint-Germain FC	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x0da43f…
10-14 20:40:39	ucl mnc psg 2026 10 14 spread away 2pt5	Paris Saint-Germain FC	BUY	133	17¢	$22	0xf1eafd…
10-14 19:22:22	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	BUY	1,111	29¢	$322	0x58c2ad…
10-14 19:21:30	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	BUY	600	17¢	$100	0x7dd60b…
10-14 19:05:40	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	BUY	1,189	28¢	$333	0x1fea15…
10-14 17:08:21	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	SELL	15,319	21¢	$3,217	0x684e4d…
10-13 23:13:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	95	56¢	$53	0x8fc104…
10-13 23:05:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	99	56¢	$55	0x7036ce…
10-13 23:05:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	100	56¢	$56	0xbf6002…
10-13 22:02:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	3	56¢	$2	0x6b2b77…
10-13 21:42:40	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	SELL	1,560	3¢	$42	0x4ef776…
10-13 21:33:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x9d8c8d…
10-13 21:33:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	SELL	1,797	3¢	$49	0x84f59b…
10-13 21:30:04	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	3	56¢	$2	0x4a9c72…
10-13 21:29:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	SELL	2,315	3¢	$62	0xe68850…
10-13 21:23:07	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x585edd…
10-13 21:22:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	89	56¢	$50	0x89cb93…
10-13 21:07:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	SELL	2,307	3¢	$62	0x8b32b1…
10-12 23:07:50	Will Together win fewer than 8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	132	80¢	$105	0xf40a1f…
10-08 19:01:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	15,999	6¢	$960	0x16b364…
10-08 19:01:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	No	BUY	3,909	1¢	$58	0x7e2359…
10-06 12:59:25	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	80	27¢	$22	0xd068a8…
10-06 12:58:28	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	75	27¢	$20	0x7a55a8…
10-06 10:52:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	400	27¢	$108	0xd804ce…
10-06 07:05:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	2	27¢	$1	0x37b5ee…
10-06 07:05:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	2	27¢	$1	0xee1ee9…
10-06 07:04:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	2	27¢	$1	0x4f1a07…
10-06 07:04:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	2	27¢	$1	0xe48097…
10-06 07:04:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	2	27¢	$1	0xa84ac9…
10-06 07:03:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	2	27¢	$1	0x4b5785…
10-06 07:03:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	2	27¢	$1	0x09cbca…
10-06 07:03:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	2	27¢	$1	0x6444c9…
10-06 06:39:55	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	150	27¢	$40	0xb883a2…
10-06 06:10:52	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	80	27¢	$22	0x4dd3a8…
10-06 06:10:40	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0x270d43…
10-06 05:47:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	130	27¢	$35	0xfb34d9…
10-06 05:35:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0xfd674a…
10-06 04:54:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	1,370	27¢	$370	0x95ff01…
10-06 04:50:58	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	274	27¢	$74	0x987df4…
10-06 04:20:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x7df88d…
10-06 03:47:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	4,524	27¢	$1,222	0xf7ed34…
10-06 02:42:43	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	137	27¢	$37	0x1f4a3e…
10-05 23:36:52	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	200	27¢	$54	0xd2160a…
10-05 22:36:46	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x1cbdd7…
10-05 22:36:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xf94a59…
10-05 22:05:28	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x9c637c…
10-05 21:49:13	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	73	27¢	$20	0xa0d517…
10-05 19:26:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	400	27¢	$108	0xc930bb…
10-05 18:06:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	0	27¢	$0	0x82f297…
10-05 17:46:55	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x06d5c2…
10-05 17:44:52	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	993	27¢	$268	0xde966b…
10-05 15:16:28	Israel military action against Iraq by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	158	8¢	$13	0x7dbae8…
10-04 18:47:16	Will Together win fewer than 8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	218	84¢	$183	0x76c24c…
09-30 06:00:30	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	4,444	83¢	$3,689	0x52bd0e…
09-29 17:03:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14,313	6¢	$859	0x1d2843…
09-29 16:49:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	522	6¢	$31	0x6bac86…
09-29 16:48:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	6¢	$12	0x6c6fef…
09-29 16:48:17	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	199	6¢	$12	0xb22497…
09-27 05:14:11	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	4,500	3¢	$135	0xd24d93…
09-27 03:12:53	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	6,718	3¢	$202	0x5eb839…
09-26 22:10:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	4	3¢	$0	0xab105f…
09-26 22:07:53	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0xed06c4…
09-26 22:05:02	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xd68f72…
09-26 21:59:38	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0xd21a29…
09-26 21:55:08	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0xcb98db…
09-26 21:51:47	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x2b1546…
09-26 21:20:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x9e02fa…
09-26 19:26:15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	240	3¢	$7	0xc0ff0a…
09-26 19:25:32	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	608	3¢	$18	0xd759b5…
09-26 19:24:03	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	211	3¢	$6	0xcac346…
09-26 19:23:45	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	103	3¢	$3	0xe9a9a8…
09-26 19:23:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	21	3¢	$1	0xe42050…
09-23 15:39:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11,662	15¢	$1,749	0x96be21…
09-23 15:33:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	4,774	45¢	$2,147	0x850f56…
09-23 15:33:01	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	BUY	2,565	36¢	$924	0xcedb68…
09-22 18:51:09	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,428	93¢	$2,258	0xac42a2…
09-22 10:36:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	1,922	35¢	$673	0x8b9322…
09-22 10:22:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0xea53d2…
09-22 10:22:52	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	200	35¢	$70	0xc20a52…
09-22 10:12:27	Will Together win 20 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	31	1¢	$0	0x23139c…
09-21 18:22:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	1,612	44¢	$710	0x25c509…
09-21 17:53:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	179	44¢	$79	0x0dcc96…
09-21 17:53:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	328	44¢	$144	0x351a1e…
09-21 17:51:34	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	347	44¢	$153	0xfd17b0…