Skinny-Diving — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$394

Unrealized P&L

+$3.35K

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,648

lifetime

Volume

$701.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$426

Open exposure

$15.5K

3 positions

First seen

2026-02-09

last 07-20 18:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

85% — —

Other

14% 0% $-394

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 55 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	+16,131	$10,694	86¢	$14.0K	+$3,259	06-13 19:41
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?	No	+1,341	$1,250	99¢	$1.3K	+$77	06-15 18:17
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	+942	$188	22¢	$203	+$14	07-09 09:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	79	$49.4K	40,458	14,666	+25,792	open	—	07-20 13:38
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	63	$46.7K	32,565	32,565	+0	open	—	04-15 11:20
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	32	$38.9K	38,496	45,036	-6,540	open	—	06-14 22:54
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	47	$32.3K	33,200	43,367	-10,166	open	—	03-06 04:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	10	$31.6K	35,666	39,882	-4,216	open	—	06-14 22:56
will iran strike israel on march 10	13	$27.4K	28,879	28,879	+0	open	—	03-12 15:59
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	37	$26.4K	34,194	34,194	+0	open	—	04-12 14:33
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	10	$26.2K	28,191	0	+28,191	open	—	06-16 14:28
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	23	$25.4K	39,829	33,379	+6,450	open	—	03-09 18:30
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	4	$21.6K	13,508	14,538	-1,030	open	—	03-25 12:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	20	$14.4K	18,072	0	+18,072	open	—	06-16 18:07
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 18 20260716224448964	6	$11.8K	8,966	3,411	+5,555	open	—	07-18 11:23
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	12	$11.1K	7,442	7,442	+0	open	—	06-20 00:08
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	12	$10.7K	17,007	0	+17,007	open	—	04-16 17:52
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	4	$10.7K	16,131	0	+16,131	open	—	06-13 19:41
will iran strike israel on march 6	3	$10.7K	6,441	6,441	+0	open	—	03-10 01:54
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	3	$10.7K	8,888	8,888	+0	open	—	03-23 21:07
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?	1	$10.5K	11,403	0	+11,403	open	—	04-16 17:53
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	6	$9.5K	10,327	0	+10,327	open	—	04-16 17:54
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	132	$9.2K	13,453	13,348	+105	open	—	03-16 09:55
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	15	$9.2K	5,197	5,197	+0	open	—	07-19 20:26
israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	8	$7.6K	6,142	5,375	+768	open	—	07-17 02:14
will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	6	$7.4K	5,627	5,627	+0	open	—	06-17 16:35
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	10	$7.3K	13,957	6,856	+7,100	open	—	06-14 23:24
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	4	$7.2K	10,668	0	+10,668	open	—	04-16 17:54
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	7	$6.6K	4,442	3,711	+731	open	—	07-19 17:03
will israel take military action in gaza on march 28 2026	13	$5.8K	5,594	2,631	+2,963	open	—	04-02 22:29
israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	5	$5.2K	5,508	0	+5,508	open	—	07-17 02:04
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	12	$5.1K	3,500	3,500	+0	No	$-234	04-07 13:17
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$5.0K	2,727	2,727	+0	open	—	03-08 18:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 18:00:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	15	15¢	$2	0x793cfb…
07-20 17:44:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	1,951	15¢	$293	0xe160d1…
07-20 16:48:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xedace2…
07-20 16:48:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xf2d7af…
07-20 16:48:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xcb10de…
07-20 16:48:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0x739368…
07-20 16:21:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xe696d0…
07-20 15:12:25	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	367	50¢	$183	0x34ec95…
07-20 15:10:42	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	768	39¢	$299	0x75cb29…
07-20 15:08:00	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	7	39¢	$3	0xb8a866…
07-20 15:07:49	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	25	39¢	$10	0x485344…
07-20 15:06:39	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	12	39¢	$5	0x56e42c…
07-20 15:06:37	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	2	39¢	$1	0x7aac4d…
07-20 15:06:00	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	36	39¢	$14	0x767720…
07-20 15:05:54	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0xe755d0…
07-20 15:05:25	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0x9aac7d…
07-20 15:05:24	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	12	39¢	$5	0xf4ae1c…
07-20 14:55:57	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	BUY	434	96¢	$415	0x0bb8a9…
07-20 14:09:01	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	0	29¢	$0	0x6675ee…
07-20 14:09:00	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0x1ff7cb…
07-20 14:08:57	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	0	29¢	$0	0xce70f2…
07-20 14:08:57	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	1,555	32¢	$496	0x7da44e…
07-20 14:08:57	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	2	29¢	$1	0x28a6f0…
07-20 14:08:55	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0xb5a5d4…
07-20 14:08:45	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	180	29¢	$52	0x4d0f4c…
07-20 13:38:12	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	2,500	99¢	$2,475	0x3cd443…
07-20 11:25:10	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by december 31 2026 20260701160841000	Yes	BUY	2	22¢	$0	0xd5b552…
07-19 22:58:43	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0x9561d6…
07-19 22:58:43	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0x79cfb1…
07-19 22:58:43	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	2,549	14¢	$357	0x052ad7…
07-19 22:58:42	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0xbf3580…
07-19 22:58:42	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0x765f48…
07-19 22:58:40	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	3,000	14¢	$420	0xccab9c…
07-19 22:57:43	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	11,368	16¢	$1,802	0x5ae5f5…
07-19 21:44:00	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	5,000	7¢	$350	0x5a0c30…
07-19 20:47:28	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte2	Yes	BUY	455	2¢	$10	0xb2b7e0…
07-19 20:47:28	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte2	Yes	BUY	455	2¢	$10	0x319347…
07-19 20:46:10	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte2	Yes	BUY	202	2¢	$4	0xa6a917…
07-19 20:44:00	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte2	Yes	BUY	22	2¢	$0	0x2303d2…
07-19 20:42:19	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte2	Yes	BUY	996	2¢	$21	0xccfaed…
07-19 20:42:07	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte2	Yes	BUY	7,083	2¢	$149	0x37652f…
07-19 20:26:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0x7a0f2f…
07-19 20:24:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	831	89¢	$739	0x35b493…
07-19 20:08:34	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte2	Yes	BUY	91	2¢	$2	0x715b1d…
07-19 19:17:06	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0xd47fd2…
07-19 19:17:04	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0x97df65…
07-19 19:16:54	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0xc6f382…
07-19 18:38:07	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte2	Yes	BUY	2,911	7¢	$204	0x9622c6…
07-19 18:25:51	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	3,809	40¢	$1,520	0xb2c458…
07-19 17:31:19	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	SELL	12	39¢	$5	0x241a5e…
07-19 17:31:18	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	SELL	1,340	39¢	$523	0x8e7218…
07-19 17:31:18	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	4,027	28¢	$1,128	0x863a2a…
07-19 17:31:18	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	SELL	100	39¢	$39	0x03f73a…
07-19 17:16:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x4d0817…
07-19 17:13:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	3	89¢	$2	0xa256e4…
07-19 17:10:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	6	89¢	$5	0x4e7f03…
07-19 17:09:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	13	89¢	$11	0x288faf…
07-19 17:03:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	SELL	1,490	83¢	$1,237	0xe8e337…
07-19 17:03:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0x171ead…
07-19 17:03:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	2,656	89¢	$2,364	0x907bd2…
07-19 16:49:25	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	SELL	9	39¢	$4	0x9ba6b5…
07-19 16:40:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	200	89¢	$178	0x352aed…
07-19 16:38:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	70	89¢	$62	0xed82e1…
07-19 16:38:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	72	89¢	$64	0x0d155b…
07-19 16:38:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	7	89¢	$6	0xb3926a…
07-19 16:38:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	1,269	89¢	$1,130	0xf91da9…
07-19 16:35:46	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0xe925ea…
07-19 16:25:13	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	BUY	5,592	6¢	$349	0xa4e15f…
07-19 16:24:58	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0x65d897…
07-19 16:24:51	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	17	10¢	$2	0xbaf4cd…
07-19 16:24:51	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0xa65afe…
07-19 16:24:49	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	6,242	10¢	$618	0x4c21ee…
07-19 16:23:09	will there be houthi military action against israel by july 31 2026 20260714210303209	Yes	BUY	450	18¢	$82	0x968d68…
07-19 16:21:15	israel military action against yemen by july 31 20260714001321877	Yes	BUY	2,815	10¢	$291	0xce33b2…
07-19 16:20:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	SELL	2,221	80¢	$1,777	0x709dfb…
07-19 15:16:21	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 20 2026 20260714195149522	No	BUY	628	100¢	$625	0xae0fc0…
07-18 21:24:46	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 spread away 1pt5	France	BUY	2,500	58¢	$1,450	0xe7ed51…
07-18 20:59:58	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 goals michael olise gte1	Yes	BUY	1,320	21¢	$277	0xc30f17…
07-18 20:59:49	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 goals ousmane dembele gte1	Yes	BUY	1,000	17¢	$170	0xfbcb8c…
07-18 16:37:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	BUY	2,222	87¢	$1,933	0xe930e9…
07-18 11:23:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 18 20260716224448964	Yes	SELL	3,411	98¢	$3,329	0xb62334…
07-18 10:22:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	4,000	81¢	$3,240	0x5712db…
07-18 10:22:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	246	81¢	$199	0x3c1943…
07-18 09:45:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 18 20260716224448964	Yes	BUY	3,806	94¢	$3,585	0xab612c…
07-18 09:43:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 18 20260716224448964	Yes	BUY	833	94¢	$784	0x5205e9…
07-18 09:35:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 18 20260716224448964	Yes	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xe5c63c…
07-18 09:33:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 18 20260716224448964	Yes	BUY	867	94¢	$817	0xb61298…
07-18 08:32:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	88	81¢	$71	0x3a9475…
07-18 07:43:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	51	81¢	$41	0xb7c6f3…
07-18 07:40:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	58	81¢	$47	0x1607d4…
07-18 05:46:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	BUY	2,975	90¢	$2,669	0x821b1e…
07-18 05:46:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 18 20260716224448964	Yes	BUY	3,411	96¢	$3,261	0xba233f…
07-17 17:44:01	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	Yes	BUY	243	60¢	$147	0x0f524c…
07-17 17:43:12	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 24 2026 20260714195149523	No	BUY	2,033	95¢	$1,940	0xa0e326…
07-17 02:14:06	israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	Yes	SELL	3,071	74¢	$2,263	0xc1905b…
07-17 02:14:00	israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	Yes	SELL	2,227	73¢	$1,626	0x34ab4e…
07-17 02:13:19	israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	Yes	SELL	76	73¢	$56	0x630b1e…
07-17 02:04:21	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	Yes	BUY	1,518	97¢	$1,477	0x4383f8…
07-17 01:54:30	israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	Yes	BUY	386	60¢	$232	0x53c392…
07-17 01:54:18	israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	Yes	BUY	679	64¢	$434	0xc80197…